4 ms·
I think, the idea is that Putin wanted to invade more than Ukraine, and even planned to wage war with NATO at some time. But he miscalculated the Ukraine resis
by k__ 5y ago
I think, the idea is that Putin wanted to invade more than Ukraine, and even planned to wage war with NATO at some time.
But he miscalculated the Ukraine resistance.
So chances are that
1. He has to pause after Ukraine, giving NATO time to level up. Leading to a new cold war.
2. If he wouldn't pause, at least he would be weakened by the Ukraine war.
- yodsanklai 5y ago> I think, the idea is that Putin wanted to invade more than Ukraine, and even planned to wage war with NATO at some time. Why would you think that?
- k__ 5y agoHis reason to invade Ukraine was that it was part of Russia back in the days, and not its own country. That could be true for NATO member countries.
- denton-scratch 5y agoHasn't he said as much? - The collapse of the CCCP and Warsaw Pact was a catastrophe - Peter The Great was great, and Russia should be extended to its old imperial borders I'm not aware that he's expressed the desire to go to war with NATO. But I do believe that subjugating Ukraine is a prerequisite to occupying the Baltic states. In particular Kaliningrad, Russia's only ice-free Baltic naval base, is connected to Russia by a long, narrow landbridge, which is very vulnerable, being protected largely by treaty commitments. Defending that landbridge with purely military force would imply aggression against Lithuania or Poland (or both), and both countries are in NATO.
- pintxo 5y agothere is no land connection under Russian control between Kaliningrad and the rest of russia, is there?
- denton-scratch 5y agoThere;s a corridor, protected by treaty.
- pintxo 5y agoSource? Wikipedia says you need a transit visa as any land transport will be through foreign land.
- denton-scratch 5y agoHmm. Wikipedia says: "Russian proposals for visa-free travel between the EU and Kaliningrad have so far been rejected by the EU. Travel arrangements, based on the Facilitated Transit Document (FTD) and Facilitated Rail Transit Document (FRTD) have been made." So it looks like you're right, and I'm wrong - it's not a proper corridor.
- grey-area 5y agoHe paused after taking Crimea too. A pause is not stopping. He needs to be stopped. He's already responsible for the most significant war crimes of the century - the razing of Grozny and Aleppo and other cities in Syria and is currently doing the same to Ukraine. The only thing that gives me hope in this situation are the strong sanctions enacted against Russia, which may result in regime change (but will cause a lot of pain to ordinary people before they do so).
- whiplash451 5y agoI wish that was true, but look at the latest analysis by the Economist. The current sanctions against Russia are similar to those of 2008-2009 and 2014-15, and pale in comparison with the financial crisis of 1998-1999 (if we only look at the rouble-dollar change rate).
- grey-area 5y agoI really don’t think that’s accurate. At no previous time have huge companies like MS and Apple withdrawn from Russia. All trade except a very limited set of commodities has ended. The stock market has been closed for 5 days. The aeroflot fleet is grounded. Much if the reserves of the national bank have been frozen. This is unprecedented and may trigger complete economic collapse.