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It's not an apples to apples comparison. Chechnya population in 1992 was about 800,000. Ukraine has a population of 41,000,000. Chechnya did not receive milit

It's not an apples to apples comparison. Chechnya population in 1992 was about 800,000. Ukraine has a population of 41,000,000. Chechnya did not receive military or humanitarian aid, and if it did, it was not as substantial as what Ukraine is receiving now. Ukrainian allies are supplying fuel, food, vehicles, weapons, training, volunteers, humanitarian aid, intelligence, etc. Russia back then was not sanctioned economically to the extent we see today or kicked out of the banking system. For example, the Soviet Union had banks in the SWIFT system. Now, Russia has been completely isolated: Russian companies cannot do business internationally due to being unable to transfer money or process payments, the value of Russian company stocks has gone to zero, their stock exchange ceased operations (temporarily), their population are doing bank runs, their currency is worth nothing and its economy is expected to collapse soon. And, unlike Russian equipment where most of the equipment spending has been diverted to corrupt endeavors, Ukrainian military equipment works. Most Russian military equipment now doesn't meet their own specifications.

jjtheblunt 5y ago
are there citations for the assertions about military equipment status?
- bpodgursky 5y ago
  I can't be bothered to look it up but Ukraine has spent a lot of time and money refurbishing their army after the 2014 crisis (where their army performed poorly against the separatists and Russians). It's not "modern", but it is functional.
thematrixturtle 5y ago
I agree Ukraine will be a much tougher situation for Russia to conquer and hold onto, but you also exaggerate the extent of their economic pain: > Now, Russia has been completely isolated: Russian companies cannot do business internationally due to being unable to transfer money or process payments, the value of Russian company stocks has gone to zero, their stock exchange ceased operations (temporarily), their population are doing bank runs, their currency is worth nothing and its economy is expected to collapse soon. Russian companies can do business with the world outside the "West", notably China, which is already a voracious consumer of Russian raw materials. The stocks that crashed to zero are the ones listed in Western stock exchanges, not the ones in Russia itself. Yes, the currency has halved, but it has done so many, many times before since 1990. So while the economy will certainly take a beating, it's not going to "collapse" entirely.
- 29athrowaway 5y ago
  My predictions on the Russian invasion of Ukraine: 1. Water flow through the North Crimean Canal is restored. 2. Kyiv is surrounded from all directions. Ukranian president dies in combat. 3. Odessa is surrounded from the north, then the Russian navy attacks it from the Black sea. Population is forced to evacuate. 4. Donetsk and Luhansk become fully annexed by Russia. 5. Kharkiv is surrounded from all directions. 6. Russian economy collapses. Putin's key supporters turn against him and stage a coup. 7. Ukraine negotiates a ceasefire, then joins the European Union. 8. Unless Ukraine signed a peace treaty granting territory to Russia, Russia will be forced to give up all annexed territories.
  - thaumasiotes 5y ago
    > Donetsk and Luhansk become fully annexed by Russia. It's always possible, but Russia started the war by recognizing their independence from Ukraine. This is the kind of thing that would happen after the war concluded ("we held a referendum and they decided to rejoin Russia"); it'd be kind of strange during a war the purpose of which is to grant them independence.
    - 29athrowaway 5y ago
      Donetsk and Luhansk already held referendums, but they were considered fraudulent.
  - denton-scratch 5y ago
    > Ukranian president dies in combat. That presupposes that he joins the armed forces; at the moment, he is a non-combatant. If he is shot, that would make him a victim of assassination, not a combat casualty. > Ukraine negotiates a ceasefire, then joins the European Union. Wooh! Just join! It takes a while to join the EU. Ask Turkey.
    - Sol- 5y ago
      Would be nice if the EU sped up the accession of whatever is left of Ukraine after this war, if only to protect it from further Russian imperialism. That said, I sadly doubt Ukraine will survive this ordeal.
School-Cotton 5y ago
Only some Russian banks have been cut off from SWIFT, not all, and their currency has only dropped 30% or so, which is far from being “worth nothing”. Yes, Russia’s economy is being severely crippled. But you exaggerate the extent significantly.
- gruturo 5y ago
  Exactly zero russian banks have been cut off from SWIFT so far. The cut will only happen on March 12th. Source: SWIFT itself. https://www.swift.com/news-events/news/message-swift-community https://www.swift.com/news-events/news/message-swift-communi...
  - School-Cotton 5y ago
    Indeed. So I should have said only some Russian banks are even going to be cut off from SWIFT (at least as far as we know now).

jjtheblunt 5y ago

are there citations for the assertions about military equipment status?

bpodgursky 5y ago
I can't be bothered to look it up but Ukraine has spent a lot of time and money refurbishing their army after the 2014 crisis (where their army performed poorly against the separatists and Russians). It's not "modern", but it is functional.

thematrixturtle 5y ago

I agree Ukraine will be a much tougher situation for Russia to conquer and hold onto, but you also exaggerate the extent of their economic pain: > Now, Russia has been completely isolated: Russian companies cannot do business internationally due to being unable to transfer money or process payments, the value of Russian company stocks has gone to zero, their stock exchange ceased operations (temporarily), their population are doing bank runs, their currency is worth nothing and its economy is expected to collapse soon. Russian companies can do business with the world outside the "West", notably China, which is already a voracious consumer of Russian raw materials. The stocks that crashed to zero are the ones listed in Western stock exchanges, not the ones in Russia itself. Yes, the currency has halved, but it has done so many, many times before since 1990. So while the economy will certainly take a beating, it's not going to "collapse" entirely.

29athrowaway 5y ago
My predictions on the Russian invasion of Ukraine: 1. Water flow through the North Crimean Canal is restored. 2. Kyiv is surrounded from all directions. Ukranian president dies in combat. 3. Odessa is surrounded from the north, then the Russian navy attacks it from the Black sea. Population is forced to evacuate. 4. Donetsk and Luhansk become fully annexed by Russia. 5. Kharkiv is surrounded from all directions. 6. Russian economy collapses. Putin's key supporters turn against him and stage a coup. 7. Ukraine negotiates a ceasefire, then joins the European Union. 8. Unless Ukraine signed a peace treaty granting territory to Russia, Russia will be forced to give up all annexed territories.
- thaumasiotes 5y ago
  > Donetsk and Luhansk become fully annexed by Russia. It's always possible, but Russia started the war by recognizing their independence from Ukraine. This is the kind of thing that would happen after the war concluded ("we held a referendum and they decided to rejoin Russia"); it'd be kind of strange during a war the purpose of which is to grant them independence.
  - 29athrowaway 5y ago
    Donetsk and Luhansk already held referendums, but they were considered fraudulent.
- denton-scratch 5y ago
  > Ukranian president dies in combat. That presupposes that he joins the armed forces; at the moment, he is a non-combatant. If he is shot, that would make him a victim of assassination, not a combat casualty. > Ukraine negotiates a ceasefire, then joins the European Union. Wooh! Just join! It takes a while to join the EU. Ask Turkey.
  - Sol- 5y ago
    Would be nice if the EU sped up the accession of whatever is left of Ukraine after this war, if only to protect it from further Russian imperialism. That said, I sadly doubt Ukraine will survive this ordeal.

School-Cotton 5y ago

Only some Russian banks have been cut off from SWIFT, not all, and their currency has only dropped 30% or so, which is far from being “worth nothing”. Yes, Russia’s economy is being severely crippled. But you exaggerate the extent significantly.

gruturo 5y ago
Exactly zero russian banks have been cut off from SWIFT so far. The cut will only happen on March 12th. Source: SWIFT itself. https://www.swift.com/news-events/news/message-swift-community https://www.swift.com/news-events/news/message-swift-communi...
- School-Cotton 5y ago
  Indeed. So I should have said only some Russian banks are even going to be cut off from SWIFT (at least as far as we know now).