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Chechnya is the counterpoint here: Russia crushed the local populace completely mercilessly and successfully installed a puppet in the form of the equally merci

Chechnya is the counterpoint here: Russia crushed the local populace completely mercilessly and successfully installed a puppet in the form of the equally merciless Ramzan Kadyrov. This would be likely the worst possible outcome for Ukraine, but it's sadly feasible. The main difference is that world didn't really care about a bunch of Muslims in an unpronounceable city (Grozny) in what was legally Russian territory, while for Ukraine they do seem willing to stand up a bit more.

29athrowaway 5y ago
It's not an apples to apples comparison. Chechnya population in 1992 was about 800,000. Ukraine has a population of 41,000,000. Chechnya did not receive military or humanitarian aid, and if it did, it was not as substantial as what Ukraine is receiving now. Ukrainian allies are supplying fuel, food, vehicles, weapons, training, volunteers, humanitarian aid, intelligence, etc. Russia back then was not sanctioned economically to the extent we see today or kicked out of the banking system. For example, the Soviet Union had banks in the SWIFT system. Now, Russia has been completely isolated: Russian companies cannot do business internationally due to being unable to transfer money or process payments, the value of Russian company stocks has gone to zero, their stock exchange ceased operations (temporarily), their population are doing bank runs, their currency is worth nothing and its economy is expected to collapse soon. And, unlike Russian equipment where most of the equipment spending has been diverted to corrupt endeavors, Ukrainian military equipment works. Most Russian military equipment now doesn't meet their own specifications.
- jjtheblunt 5y ago
  are there citations for the assertions about military equipment status?
  - bpodgursky 5y ago
    I can't be bothered to look it up but Ukraine has spent a lot of time and money refurbishing their army after the 2014 crisis (where their army performed poorly against the separatists and Russians). It's not "modern", but it is functional.
- thematrixturtle 5y ago
  I agree Ukraine will be a much tougher situation for Russia to conquer and hold onto, but you also exaggerate the extent of their economic pain: > Now, Russia has been completely isolated: Russian companies cannot do business internationally due to being unable to transfer money or process payments, the value of Russian company stocks has gone to zero, their stock exchange ceased operations (temporarily), their population are doing bank runs, their currency is worth nothing and its economy is expected to collapse soon. Russian companies can do business with the world outside the "West", notably China, which is already a voracious consumer of Russian raw materials. The stocks that crashed to zero are the ones listed in Western stock exchanges, not the ones in Russia itself. Yes, the currency has halved, but it has done so many, many times before since 1990. So while the economy will certainly take a beating, it's not going to "collapse" entirely.
  - 29athrowaway 5y ago
    My predictions on the Russian invasion of Ukraine: 1. Water flow through the North Crimean Canal is restored. 2. Kyiv is surrounded from all directions. Ukranian president dies in combat. 3. Odessa is surrounded from the north, then the Russian navy attacks it from the Black sea. Population is forced to evacuate. 4. Donetsk and Luhansk become fully annexed by Russia. 5. Kharkiv is surrounded from all directions. 6. Russian economy collapses. Putin's key supporters turn against him and stage a coup. 7. Ukraine negotiates a ceasefire, then joins the European Union. 8. Unless Ukraine signed a peace treaty granting territory to Russia, Russia will be forced to give up all annexed territories.
    - thaumasiotes 5y ago
      > Donetsk and Luhansk become fully annexed by Russia. It's always possible, but Russia started the war by recognizing their independence from Ukraine. This is the kind of thing that would happen after the war concluded ("we held a referendum and they decided to rejoin Russia"); it'd be kind of strange during a war the purpose of which is to grant them independence.
      - 5y ago
- School-Cotton 5y ago
  Only some Russian banks have been cut off from SWIFT, not all, and their currency has only dropped 30% or so, which is far from being “worth nothing”. Yes, Russia’s economy is being severely crippled. But you exaggerate the extent significantly.
  - gruturo 5y ago
    Exactly zero russian banks have been cut off from SWIFT so far. The cut will only happen on March 12th. Source: SWIFT itself. https://www.swift.com/news-events/news/message-swift-community https://www.swift.com/news-events/news/message-swift-communi...
    - School-Cotton 5y ago
      Indeed. So I should have said only some Russian banks are even going to be cut off from SWIFT (at least as far as we know now).
int_19h 5y ago
The why it was possible in Chechnya is that the rebels have started fighting between themselves; specifically, the (older) Chechen traditionalist / nationalist faction was unhappy with the growing power of the (newer) Salafi fundamentalist faction. Thus, Kadyrov - except back then it was Ahmad Kadyrov; Ramzan is his son and successor. As the Chief Mufti of Chechnya, he was one of the most powerful figures in the traditionalist camp, and one with the most to lose from Salafism gaining ground (traditional Chechen Islam is Sufi). Ahmad Kadyrov was all in with the rebels during the first Chechen war, officially declaring it a jihad in his capacity as a mufti. Ramzan boasted of "killing his first Russian at 16" at the time. But by 1999, the Kadyrov clan decided that Salafis are more dangerous than Russians, and switched allegiance. That is why Russia could install that puppet government relatively easily - because they had considerable local support: not just the Kadyrov clan, but numerous others aligned with it. Ukraine also has many potential collaborators, but mostly in the East, and they are already mostly in the separatist militias. I expect that Russia will recruit from those for its occupation administration.
- simonh 5y ago
  There’s also the issue that Chechnya is about 2/3 the size of Donetsk, let alone comparing it to Ukraine as a whole.
AtlasBarfed 5y ago
I doubt Chechnya has the opportunity to be outfitted with a drone air force and TOW/MANPADS for any Ukrainian that wants them. Chechnya involved muslims. Ukrainians are far more European, yes that makes a difference. Chechnya didn't have direct NATO border nations and supply lines. I don't believe this to be the normal massive asymmetric difference in firepower if NATO arms the Ukrainians enough. IF they are given sufficient drones, I believe Ukraine could actually have a firepower and battlefield advantage. Now, I don't know for sure NATO is going to commit to such supply. I think they'll be a bit more reserved, but the more weaponry Russia use, the more NATO will supply Ukraine. NATO may decided to supply just enough to bog down Russia but not hand Ukraine a rapid victory. I 100% believe NATO could equip Ukraine with enough weapons for certain victory. It now comes down to whether NATO does that. Missiles: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2022/03/03/ukraine-receives-fresh-supplies-of-bayraktar-drones-and-anti-tank-weapons/?sh=5b5807a2359a https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2022/03/03/ukrain... Turkey is supplying new drones. I bet there are more on the way. Stingers and Polish MANPADS are being supplied. These are the publicly announced numbers. Those numbers tell me NATO will supply ample weaponry. Ukraine is a nation of 40,000,000 people. And they appear spoiling for a fight. How many of those would train to fight? 2 million? 5 million? 10 million? If Ukraine gets 1 million volunteers and full arms support from the West, Russia is doomed. I'll be interested to see if female fighting units start getting news like in Kurdistan. If that happens, Russia is in deep trouble.
- petesergeant 5y ago
  > Ukrainians are far more European, yes that makes a difference There’s also a gigantic diaspora: I had no idea I knew so many Ukrainians. Also the amount of posts on LinkedIn where people point out some portion of their dev team is in Ukraine, and now some Product Manager in Spokane is all in on supporting Ukraine because his front-end guy is in a bunker
  - omegaham 5y ago
    My wife is in a similar position here in Oregon. Two of her direct reports are Ukrainian, and one just took a leave of absence that wasn't explicitly "I'm off to defend my homeland," but it wasn't explicitly not that, either.
riffraff 5y ago
Checnya is less than 2 million people and less than 20k square kilometers. Ukraine is 20 times larger. It is impossible for the Russian forces to hold by force, the population should agree to it or a puppet regime ia installed that is accepted by the population. Now holding the east part, that seems reasonably easy, and to me it's clearly the end goal, the rest is just putting yourself inal a strong negotiating stance.
- smt88 5y ago
  Macron said yesterday that Putin's end goal is to conquer all of Ukraine, not just the east.
  - methyl 5y ago
    That’s what Putin said, so you can just disregard that.
    - smt88 5y ago
      What motive would Putin have to tell Macron that he is more greedy than he actually is? We know he hates to look weak, so if he "settles" for eastern Ukraine after saying that, he's going to look weak.
- denton-scratch 5y ago
  > Now holding the east part, that seems reasonably easy, and to me it's clearly the end goal Judging from what Putin has actually said, the end-goal is much more expansive than that. I believed that a couple of weeks ago; but recent comments to the effect that Ukraine is a bogus state have changed my mind.
  - riffraff 5y ago
    he said that, but I would rather believe that is a negotiation tactic than an actual aim.
    - 5y ago
Andrew_nenakhov 5y ago
Kadyrov, a puppet? Russia was badly losing a war, and only managed to achieve peace by siding with one of the feuding clans and paying exorbitant tribute to it. Kadyrov is totally uncontrollable, makes outrageous criminal statements, yet the Kremlin can't do anything to him because he has a very big private army. Chechen operatives act all over the country and are basically untouchable, kidnapping people even from the police custody without repercussions.
aqme28 5y ago
Russia _did_ have a puppet in Ukraine, but he was ousted in a populist uprising in 2014.

29athrowaway 5y ago

It's not an apples to apples comparison. Chechnya population in 1992 was about 800,000. Ukraine has a population of 41,000,000. Chechnya did not receive military or humanitarian aid, and if it did, it was not as substantial as what Ukraine is receiving now. Ukrainian allies are supplying fuel, food, vehicles, weapons, training, volunteers, humanitarian aid, intelligence, etc. Russia back then was not sanctioned economically to the extent we see today or kicked out of the banking system. For example, the Soviet Union had banks in the SWIFT system. Now, Russia has been completely isolated: Russian companies cannot do business internationally due to being unable to transfer money or process payments, the value of Russian company stocks has gone to zero, their stock exchange ceased operations (temporarily), their population are doing bank runs, their currency is worth nothing and its economy is expected to collapse soon. And, unlike Russian equipment where most of the equipment spending has been diverted to corrupt endeavors, Ukrainian military equipment works. Most Russian military equipment now doesn't meet their own specifications.

jjtheblunt 5y ago
are there citations for the assertions about military equipment status?
- bpodgursky 5y ago
  I can't be bothered to look it up but Ukraine has spent a lot of time and money refurbishing their army after the 2014 crisis (where their army performed poorly against the separatists and Russians). It's not "modern", but it is functional.
thematrixturtle 5y ago
I agree Ukraine will be a much tougher situation for Russia to conquer and hold onto, but you also exaggerate the extent of their economic pain: > Now, Russia has been completely isolated: Russian companies cannot do business internationally due to being unable to transfer money or process payments, the value of Russian company stocks has gone to zero, their stock exchange ceased operations (temporarily), their population are doing bank runs, their currency is worth nothing and its economy is expected to collapse soon. Russian companies can do business with the world outside the "West", notably China, which is already a voracious consumer of Russian raw materials. The stocks that crashed to zero are the ones listed in Western stock exchanges, not the ones in Russia itself. Yes, the currency has halved, but it has done so many, many times before since 1990. So while the economy will certainly take a beating, it's not going to "collapse" entirely.
- 29athrowaway 5y ago
  My predictions on the Russian invasion of Ukraine: 1. Water flow through the North Crimean Canal is restored. 2. Kyiv is surrounded from all directions. Ukranian president dies in combat. 3. Odessa is surrounded from the north, then the Russian navy attacks it from the Black sea. Population is forced to evacuate. 4. Donetsk and Luhansk become fully annexed by Russia. 5. Kharkiv is surrounded from all directions. 6. Russian economy collapses. Putin's key supporters turn against him and stage a coup. 7. Ukraine negotiates a ceasefire, then joins the European Union. 8. Unless Ukraine signed a peace treaty granting territory to Russia, Russia will be forced to give up all annexed territories.
  - thaumasiotes 5y ago
    > Donetsk and Luhansk become fully annexed by Russia. It's always possible, but Russia started the war by recognizing their independence from Ukraine. This is the kind of thing that would happen after the war concluded ("we held a referendum and they decided to rejoin Russia"); it'd be kind of strange during a war the purpose of which is to grant them independence.
    - 5y ago
School-Cotton 5y ago
Only some Russian banks have been cut off from SWIFT, not all, and their currency has only dropped 30% or so, which is far from being “worth nothing”. Yes, Russia’s economy is being severely crippled. But you exaggerate the extent significantly.
- gruturo 5y ago
  Exactly zero russian banks have been cut off from SWIFT so far. The cut will only happen on March 12th. Source: SWIFT itself. https://www.swift.com/news-events/news/message-swift-community https://www.swift.com/news-events/news/message-swift-communi...
  - School-Cotton 5y ago
    Indeed. So I should have said only some Russian banks are even going to be cut off from SWIFT (at least as far as we know now).

int_19h 5y ago

The why it was possible in Chechnya is that the rebels have started fighting between themselves; specifically, the (older) Chechen traditionalist / nationalist faction was unhappy with the growing power of the (newer) Salafi fundamentalist faction. Thus, Kadyrov - except back then it was Ahmad Kadyrov; Ramzan is his son and successor. As the Chief Mufti of Chechnya, he was one of the most powerful figures in the traditionalist camp, and one with the most to lose from Salafism gaining ground (traditional Chechen Islam is Sufi). Ahmad Kadyrov was all in with the rebels during the first Chechen war, officially declaring it a jihad in his capacity as a mufti. Ramzan boasted of "killing his first Russian at 16" at the time. But by 1999, the Kadyrov clan decided that Salafis are more dangerous than Russians, and switched allegiance. That is why Russia could install that puppet government relatively easily - because they had considerable local support: not just the Kadyrov clan, but numerous others aligned with it. Ukraine also has many potential collaborators, but mostly in the East, and they are already mostly in the separatist militias. I expect that Russia will recruit from those for its occupation administration.

simonh 5y ago
There’s also the issue that Chechnya is about 2/3 the size of Donetsk, let alone comparing it to Ukraine as a whole.

AtlasBarfed 5y ago

I doubt Chechnya has the opportunity to be outfitted with a drone air force and TOW/MANPADS for any Ukrainian that wants them. Chechnya involved muslims. Ukrainians are far more European, yes that makes a difference. Chechnya didn't have direct NATO border nations and supply lines. I don't believe this to be the normal massive asymmetric difference in firepower if NATO arms the Ukrainians enough. IF they are given sufficient drones, I believe Ukraine could actually have a firepower and battlefield advantage. Now, I don't know for sure NATO is going to commit to such supply. I think they'll be a bit more reserved, but the more weaponry Russia use, the more NATO will supply Ukraine. NATO may decided to supply just enough to bog down Russia but not hand Ukraine a rapid victory. I 100% believe NATO could equip Ukraine with enough weapons for certain victory. It now comes down to whether NATO does that. Missiles: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2022/03/03/ukraine-receives-fresh-supplies-of-bayraktar-drones-and-anti-tank-weapons/?sh=5b5807a2359a https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2022/03/03/ukrain... Turkey is supplying new drones. I bet there are more on the way. Stingers and Polish MANPADS are being supplied. These are the publicly announced numbers. Those numbers tell me NATO will supply ample weaponry. Ukraine is a nation of 40,000,000 people. And they appear spoiling for a fight. How many of those would train to fight? 2 million? 5 million? 10 million? If Ukraine gets 1 million volunteers and full arms support from the West, Russia is doomed. I'll be interested to see if female fighting units start getting news like in Kurdistan. If that happens, Russia is in deep trouble.

petesergeant 5y ago
> Ukrainians are far more European, yes that makes a difference There’s also a gigantic diaspora: I had no idea I knew so many Ukrainians. Also the amount of posts on LinkedIn where people point out some portion of their dev team is in Ukraine, and now some Product Manager in Spokane is all in on supporting Ukraine because his front-end guy is in a bunker
- omegaham 5y ago
  My wife is in a similar position here in Oregon. Two of her direct reports are Ukrainian, and one just took a leave of absence that wasn't explicitly "I'm off to defend my homeland," but it wasn't explicitly not that, either.

riffraff 5y ago

Checnya is less than 2 million people and less than 20k square kilometers. Ukraine is 20 times larger. It is impossible for the Russian forces to hold by force, the population should agree to it or a puppet regime ia installed that is accepted by the population. Now holding the east part, that seems reasonably easy, and to me it's clearly the end goal, the rest is just putting yourself inal a strong negotiating stance.

smt88 5y ago
Macron said yesterday that Putin's end goal is to conquer all of Ukraine, not just the east.
- methyl 5y ago
  That’s what Putin said, so you can just disregard that.
  - smt88 5y ago
    What motive would Putin have to tell Macron that he is more greedy than he actually is? We know he hates to look weak, so if he "settles" for eastern Ukraine after saying that, he's going to look weak.
denton-scratch 5y ago
> Now holding the east part, that seems reasonably easy, and to me it's clearly the end goal Judging from what Putin has actually said, the end-goal is much more expansive than that. I believed that a couple of weeks ago; but recent comments to the effect that Ukraine is a bogus state have changed my mind.
- riffraff 5y ago
  he said that, but I would rather believe that is a negotiation tactic than an actual aim.
  - 5y ago

Andrew_nenakhov 5y ago

Kadyrov, a puppet? Russia was badly losing a war, and only managed to achieve peace by siding with one of the feuding clans and paying exorbitant tribute to it. Kadyrov is totally uncontrollable, makes outrageous criminal statements, yet the Kremlin can't do anything to him because he has a very big private army. Chechen operatives act all over the country and are basically untouchable, kidnapping people even from the police custody without repercussions.

aqme28 5y ago

Russia _did_ have a puppet in Ukraine, but he was ousted in a populist uprising in 2014.