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This new world order the Russians and Chinese are looking to create sounds like a much much worse deal for Russia and Putin and the Oligarchs, than being part o

This new world order the Russians and Chinese are looking to create sounds like a much much worse deal for Russia and Putin and the Oligarchs, than being part of the world system, it makes zero sense. China really don’t care one bit about Russia, it’s like them buddying up with Holland and Belgium specially. What is the point? Such small fry for no reward to them. The Russians being stupid enough to think things will get better for them by being friends with China is beyond insane. Good for China and bad for Russia.

spamizbad 5y ago
I think that’s sort of intentional; saddle China up with problematic partners that makes them harder to integrate with stronger, less problematic ones (eg: the EU).
mynameishere 5y ago
China also doesn't actively hate Russia unlike the Western establishment apparently does.
- oytis 5y ago
  China still has a lot of ressentiment from Russia's imperial times AFAIK, and some territorial claims to Russia.
  - sudosysgen 5y ago
    China and Russia fully settled their territorial claims in 2003. The ressentiment is mostly from Chinese ultranationalists that have been censored by the government.
    - oytis 5y ago
      > The ressentiment is mostly from Chinese ultranationalists that have been censored by the government. That is good to know, thank you! I'd like to say though that until recently annexing Crimea not to say bombing Kyiv was something only ultranationalists in Russia would call for. And as far as I can see from the outside, official rhetoric in China is getting more heated and nationalist, pretty much like it was in Russia.
    - hunglee2 5y ago
      this is correct. Too many 'china watchers' look at the Qing era maps and think PRC want to return to those borders. Vast majority of territorial claims have been settled by the PRC, almost always conceding loss of territory.
  - FrozenSynapse 5y ago
    they should use a casus beli while russians are distracted
    - oytis 5y ago
      I don't think they will. Russia is being isolated from the Western world and will naturally become very dependent on China. They will get what they want peacefully sooner or later.
- andy_ppp 5y ago
  The West doesn’t really care about Russia or Ukraine, in fact I wonder if the US even cares about Europe at all at this point. Leave a mess in Europe while they pivot to Asia.
  - adventured 5y ago
    > The West doesn’t really care about Russia or Ukraine Obviously false. > in fact I wonder if the US even cares about Europe at all at this point Your bias is showing. > Leave a mess in Europe while they pivot to Asia. The mess in question is something created by Europe. What's happening with Ukraine is a vestige disease of former European empire & conquering mentality, the ideology of past centuries that used to be omnipresent among the major powers and their cultures, and is now an ideology primarily only prevelant in Russia (although Macron pines for the French empire a bit as an extension of his egomania). The US has spent 3/4 of a century holding the line against Russia in Europe. It's a very expensive line and it shouldn't be our responsibility. Very obviously it's time for the Europeans to pick up more of that burden (I'm glad Germany is maybe finally waking up to that need, it's in their own self-interest to do so). The US should remain a core part of NATO and should continue to participate, just with the Europeans carrying more of that security burden and the US carrying less. What are Italy and Spain doing at present to stop Russia? Not much (insert comment about how, but but but Italy waved their hands in the air furiously and Spain sent 27 tank busters to Ukraine and they agreed to sanctions, wow). Those are major EU+NATO nations, let them deploy a hundred thousand soldiers along NATO's eastern flank, instead of the US having to do it this time (at the peak the US had 400,000+ soldiers protecting the rest of Europe from the USSR in the late 1950s). See how they like the cost and stress it puts on their societies. Few countries will be willing to tolerate those very long-term deployments and costs. Maybe the EU can build a significant defense force so the US doesn't have to play that role again. It's a nice thought. The Europeans are not going to like the cost of it all (which, given the net zero economic growth in the EU over the past 15 years, the increased military cost will come directly in the form of a lower standard of living and weaker social safety net for the people, which is where the social rebellion against an EU defense apparatus begins).
    - an9n 5y ago
throwaway894345 5y ago
On the other hand, I do feel worried about two large superpowers run by dictators teaming up. It’s been good seeing the west somewhat united over this Russia thing, but maybe we should think about the need for western unity more broadly than the Ukraine crisis.
- ModernMech 5y ago
  > maybe we should think about the need for western unity more broadly than the Ukraine crisis. I think that is shaping up right now. This whole thing is bigger than Ukraine and Russia in the sense that it's really about autocracy vs. democracy. Forces in America like Peter Thiel, who say that they “no longer believe that freedom and democracy are compatible”, would love nothing more to set up an autocratic regime here where they are in charge, the way Putin has control in Russia, or Xi has control in China. 2016-2020 saw much of the political establishment here in the US side with authoritarian ideals, to the point where the President and Senators were even parroting Russian state propaganda straight from the Kremlin. There's a whole lot of people here in America who believe what Putin is doing is smart and savvy, and they would love nothing more to have the kind of unilateral power that he has, but with the American government, economy, and military at their whim. There are groups in Germany, France, and the UK who have the same feeling about democracy. This is truly the test of our generation.
  - throwaway894345 5y ago
    > I think that is shaping up right now. I hope so. I share your concern about Trumpism and Kremlin-sympathizing in the United States, but it's a mistake to think that authoritarianism is exclusively a right-wing phenomenon considering the last decade saw unprecedented attacks on free speech, racial egalitarianism (i.e., what the left pejoratively refers to as "colorblindness"), and unjustifiable overreach with respect to COVID protocols (and prior to 2021-01-06, left-wing groups had a monopoly over anti-democratic, revolutionary rhetoric). Moreover, populism on the left and especially on the right is a symptom and not a cause in and of itself, and we should tread lightly so as to not exacerbate the root cause and inadvertently create more populists (e.g., by trying to "crack down" on populism). Personally, I think we need to re-establish our "civic religion" with respect to western democratic values and anti-authoritarianism and to emphasize an American identity rather than racial or partisan identities. For those of us on the left, this probably implies a course correction from hyperbolic criticisms of the US and the West toward a narrative which acknowledges that for all its faults, we could do a lot worse than western democracy and egalitarianism. For both sides, we need to stop looking at "the other side" as the cause of all our woes and start building bridges or western superpowers will become too weak to keep authoritarian superpowers in check.
oytis 5y ago
Unfortunately what is good or bad to Russia doesn't seem to matter any more. The special forces and military are in charge of Russia now, as soon as Russia can sustain basic food and fuel production they are good.
- mediumsmart 5y ago
  I highly doubt that. with their few gmo free wheatfields and that pitiful tiny reserve of oil and gas, not even thinking about their dwindling fresh water supplies, they won't be able to do anything without the west for a long time. you'll see, they will beg for some chicken mcnuggets next Sunday.
  - oytis 5y ago
    That's ... an interesting perspective. Russia is 2nd largest oil exporter after the U.S., a wheat exporter and I've never heard about any problems with water outside of Crimea too. Obviously Russian economy is hit hard now, but not to the point of humanitarian catastrophe I think. Having said that I don't think they have a plan really. They just do what they can and see how it goes. I believe there are going to be two trends: one of sanctions slowly gaining in effect, and another one of Russia adapting to sanctions. We'll see which one is stronger. Also as I understand many in Russian government believe that current hard sanctions are due to Ukraine's pressure and intel, and once it's gone (which they hope to be solved with military) sanctions will become weaker and/or easier to circumvent.
mbreese 5y ago
> The Russians being stupid enough to think things will get better for them It isn’t about things being better or worse. After being cut off from the rest of the world, China’s financial system is the only other option. So, instead of looking for the best partner, it’s about working with any partner. And this was predictable — who else could they turn to? But even though they have a new trading partner, the fall in the value of the ruble will extend to these new transactions. This all serves to reinforce the asymmetry in the relationship between China and Russia. But again, the Russians don’t have many choices here.
- beaunative 5y ago
  I don't think this is stupid on Russia's side. No one's going into war thinking they are going to lose. In this case at least, if Russia does achieve their goal, being temporarily beholden to Chinese' financial system for international trade is an acceptable solution for the time being, they are otherwise beholden to the US as well, what's the difference?
mercy_dude 5y ago
I wouldn’t say no rewards. For once, their (China) politicians are much more open to cooperation vs the clear hostility from western ones to the point where for last 4yrs ”Russia bad” has been the de facto slogan for most politicians in US. It removes uncertainty and most likely they will be the first one to be into the system and likely be the ones to drive innovations around it. All in all these sanctions are quite ineffective unless the goal is to completely decouple Russia which doesn’t seem possible especially since Europe is still buying their oil and gas in elevated prices.
- raverbashing 5y ago
  > their (China) politicians are much more open to cooperation vs the clear hostility from western ones It's one thing before you close the deal, another one after. Let's see how cooperative they will be once this is their only choice
- jd115 5y ago
  Let's get something straight dude... Western politicians are not dumb for realising "Russia bad" over the past 4 yrs. They are dumb for NOT realising it 100 f'in years ago! Russia has been THE major exporter of evil in the world for over a century now and people are just now waking up, as if the entire RU shit-show over the past week has been utterly shocking and unexpected. Spare me.
  - yodon 5y ago
    The Cold War, which was kind of a big deal, was 100% about Western citizens and politicians understanding and trying to counter the threat of Russia. Under Trump the US Republican Party pivoted from being the staunchly anti-Russian force it had been for more than 50 years to suddenly becoming an appallingly pro-Russian entity. As problematic as that shift was, it's extremely recent on the 100 year timescale you're discussing.
supergirl 5y ago
> China really don’t care one bit about Russia what's the alternative? does the West care about Russia?
- signatoremo 5y ago
  The alternative is not to bully or invade their neighbors? They can maintain relationships with both China and the West. They can sell gas and oil to both. They can have leverage over both. The way it is going, Russia will become a dependent state to China, bend to their will. Ironic, considering that Putin often talks about restoring Russia of the glory past.
- CRConrad 5y ago
  > does the West care about Russia? Why should it?
nuccy 5y ago
The more we are into this, the more I think either Putin is crazy or missinformed, living in an artificial information bubble. Today there was a call with Macron and Putin stated that there was zero assult on civil buildings in Ukrainian cities... he didn't attempt to justify those as accidental, minor or whatever, it seems he trully believes there are none. He justifies the photos from those as creations of Western intelligences. This guy has no idea what "subscribe" on YouTube means (there was a funny school visit where a boy asked him to subscribe and Putin asked to sign what? In russian subscribe and sign have the same base). He has no idea about real world, I would not be surprised if in his mind he is winning.
- mediumsmart 5y ago
hnthrowaway0315 5y ago
China loves globalization, and there was a joke saying that China is willing to re-instate the 1948 Sino-American Treaty of Friendship, Commerce and Navigation but of course that is just a fantasy.
- astkaasa 5y ago
  confirm this joke
lxe 5y ago
> China really don’t care one bit about Russia Better and bigger trade deals is definitely a benefit for China.
- andy_ppp 5y ago
  I think jeopardising their market in the West will be problematic for their growth.
astkaasa 5y ago
Maybe they have struggled to be part of the world (west) system, but the west is too greedy that now they're considering they have no other options.

spamizbad 5y ago

I think that’s sort of intentional; saddle China up with problematic partners that makes them harder to integrate with stronger, less problematic ones (eg: the EU).

mynameishere 5y ago

China also doesn't actively hate Russia unlike the Western establishment apparently does.

oytis 5y ago
China still has a lot of ressentiment from Russia's imperial times AFAIK, and some territorial claims to Russia.
- sudosysgen 5y ago
  China and Russia fully settled their territorial claims in 2003. The ressentiment is mostly from Chinese ultranationalists that have been censored by the government.
  - oytis 5y ago
    > The ressentiment is mostly from Chinese ultranationalists that have been censored by the government. That is good to know, thank you! I'd like to say though that until recently annexing Crimea not to say bombing Kyiv was something only ultranationalists in Russia would call for. And as far as I can see from the outside, official rhetoric in China is getting more heated and nationalist, pretty much like it was in Russia.
  - hunglee2 5y ago
    this is correct. Too many 'china watchers' look at the Qing era maps and think PRC want to return to those borders. Vast majority of territorial claims have been settled by the PRC, almost always conceding loss of territory.
- FrozenSynapse 5y ago
  they should use a casus beli while russians are distracted
  - oytis 5y ago
    I don't think they will. Russia is being isolated from the Western world and will naturally become very dependent on China. They will get what they want peacefully sooner or later.
andy_ppp 5y ago
The West doesn’t really care about Russia or Ukraine, in fact I wonder if the US even cares about Europe at all at this point. Leave a mess in Europe while they pivot to Asia.
- adventured 5y ago
  > The West doesn’t really care about Russia or Ukraine Obviously false. > in fact I wonder if the US even cares about Europe at all at this point Your bias is showing. > Leave a mess in Europe while they pivot to Asia. The mess in question is something created by Europe. What's happening with Ukraine is a vestige disease of former European empire & conquering mentality, the ideology of past centuries that used to be omnipresent among the major powers and their cultures, and is now an ideology primarily only prevelant in Russia (although Macron pines for the French empire a bit as an extension of his egomania). The US has spent 3/4 of a century holding the line against Russia in Europe. It's a very expensive line and it shouldn't be our responsibility. Very obviously it's time for the Europeans to pick up more of that burden (I'm glad Germany is maybe finally waking up to that need, it's in their own self-interest to do so). The US should remain a core part of NATO and should continue to participate, just with the Europeans carrying more of that security burden and the US carrying less. What are Italy and Spain doing at present to stop Russia? Not much (insert comment about how, but but but Italy waved their hands in the air furiously and Spain sent 27 tank busters to Ukraine and they agreed to sanctions, wow). Those are major EU+NATO nations, let them deploy a hundred thousand soldiers along NATO's eastern flank, instead of the US having to do it this time (at the peak the US had 400,000+ soldiers protecting the rest of Europe from the USSR in the late 1950s). See how they like the cost and stress it puts on their societies. Few countries will be willing to tolerate those very long-term deployments and costs. Maybe the EU can build a significant defense force so the US doesn't have to play that role again. It's a nice thought. The Europeans are not going to like the cost of it all (which, given the net zero economic growth in the EU over the past 15 years, the increased military cost will come directly in the form of a lower standard of living and weaker social safety net for the people, which is where the social rebellion against an EU defense apparatus begins).
  - an9n 5y ago

throwaway894345 5y ago

On the other hand, I do feel worried about two large superpowers run by dictators teaming up. It’s been good seeing the west somewhat united over this Russia thing, but maybe we should think about the need for western unity more broadly than the Ukraine crisis.

ModernMech 5y ago
> maybe we should think about the need for western unity more broadly than the Ukraine crisis. I think that is shaping up right now. This whole thing is bigger than Ukraine and Russia in the sense that it's really about autocracy vs. democracy. Forces in America like Peter Thiel, who say that they “no longer believe that freedom and democracy are compatible”, would love nothing more to set up an autocratic regime here where they are in charge, the way Putin has control in Russia, or Xi has control in China. 2016-2020 saw much of the political establishment here in the US side with authoritarian ideals, to the point where the President and Senators were even parroting Russian state propaganda straight from the Kremlin. There's a whole lot of people here in America who believe what Putin is doing is smart and savvy, and they would love nothing more to have the kind of unilateral power that he has, but with the American government, economy, and military at their whim. There are groups in Germany, France, and the UK who have the same feeling about democracy. This is truly the test of our generation.
- throwaway894345 5y ago
  > I think that is shaping up right now. I hope so. I share your concern about Trumpism and Kremlin-sympathizing in the United States, but it's a mistake to think that authoritarianism is exclusively a right-wing phenomenon considering the last decade saw unprecedented attacks on free speech, racial egalitarianism (i.e., what the left pejoratively refers to as "colorblindness"), and unjustifiable overreach with respect to COVID protocols (and prior to 2021-01-06, left-wing groups had a monopoly over anti-democratic, revolutionary rhetoric). Moreover, populism on the left and especially on the right is a symptom and not a cause in and of itself, and we should tread lightly so as to not exacerbate the root cause and inadvertently create more populists (e.g., by trying to "crack down" on populism). Personally, I think we need to re-establish our "civic religion" with respect to western democratic values and anti-authoritarianism and to emphasize an American identity rather than racial or partisan identities. For those of us on the left, this probably implies a course correction from hyperbolic criticisms of the US and the West toward a narrative which acknowledges that for all its faults, we could do a lot worse than western democracy and egalitarianism. For both sides, we need to stop looking at "the other side" as the cause of all our woes and start building bridges or western superpowers will become too weak to keep authoritarian superpowers in check.

oytis 5y ago

Unfortunately what is good or bad to Russia doesn't seem to matter any more. The special forces and military are in charge of Russia now, as soon as Russia can sustain basic food and fuel production they are good.

mediumsmart 5y ago
I highly doubt that. with their few gmo free wheatfields and that pitiful tiny reserve of oil and gas, not even thinking about their dwindling fresh water supplies, they won't be able to do anything without the west for a long time. you'll see, they will beg for some chicken mcnuggets next Sunday.
- oytis 5y ago
  That's ... an interesting perspective. Russia is 2nd largest oil exporter after the U.S., a wheat exporter and I've never heard about any problems with water outside of Crimea too. Obviously Russian economy is hit hard now, but not to the point of humanitarian catastrophe I think. Having said that I don't think they have a plan really. They just do what they can and see how it goes. I believe there are going to be two trends: one of sanctions slowly gaining in effect, and another one of Russia adapting to sanctions. We'll see which one is stronger. Also as I understand many in Russian government believe that current hard sanctions are due to Ukraine's pressure and intel, and once it's gone (which they hope to be solved with military) sanctions will become weaker and/or easier to circumvent.

mbreese 5y ago

> The Russians being stupid enough to think things will get better for them It isn’t about things being better or worse. After being cut off from the rest of the world, China’s financial system is the only other option. So, instead of looking for the best partner, it’s about working with any partner. And this was predictable — who else could they turn to? But even though they have a new trading partner, the fall in the value of the ruble will extend to these new transactions. This all serves to reinforce the asymmetry in the relationship between China and Russia. But again, the Russians don’t have many choices here.

beaunative 5y ago
I don't think this is stupid on Russia's side. No one's going into war thinking they are going to lose. In this case at least, if Russia does achieve their goal, being temporarily beholden to Chinese' financial system for international trade is an acceptable solution for the time being, they are otherwise beholden to the US as well, what's the difference?

mercy_dude 5y ago

I wouldn’t say no rewards. For once, their (China) politicians are much more open to cooperation vs the clear hostility from western ones to the point where for last 4yrs ”Russia bad” has been the de facto slogan for most politicians in US. It removes uncertainty and most likely they will be the first one to be into the system and likely be the ones to drive innovations around it. All in all these sanctions are quite ineffective unless the goal is to completely decouple Russia which doesn’t seem possible especially since Europe is still buying their oil and gas in elevated prices.

raverbashing 5y ago
> their (China) politicians are much more open to cooperation vs the clear hostility from western ones It's one thing before you close the deal, another one after. Let's see how cooperative they will be once this is their only choice
jd115 5y ago
Let's get something straight dude... Western politicians are not dumb for realising "Russia bad" over the past 4 yrs. They are dumb for NOT realising it 100 f'in years ago! Russia has been THE major exporter of evil in the world for over a century now and people are just now waking up, as if the entire RU shit-show over the past week has been utterly shocking and unexpected. Spare me.
- yodon 5y ago
  The Cold War, which was kind of a big deal, was 100% about Western citizens and politicians understanding and trying to counter the threat of Russia. Under Trump the US Republican Party pivoted from being the staunchly anti-Russian force it had been for more than 50 years to suddenly becoming an appallingly pro-Russian entity. As problematic as that shift was, it's extremely recent on the 100 year timescale you're discussing.

supergirl 5y ago

> China really don’t care one bit about Russia what's the alternative? does the West care about Russia?

signatoremo 5y ago
The alternative is not to bully or invade their neighbors? They can maintain relationships with both China and the West. They can sell gas and oil to both. They can have leverage over both. The way it is going, Russia will become a dependent state to China, bend to their will. Ironic, considering that Putin often talks about restoring Russia of the glory past.
CRConrad 5y ago
> does the West care about Russia? Why should it?

nuccy 5y ago

The more we are into this, the more I think either Putin is crazy or missinformed, living in an artificial information bubble. Today there was a call with Macron and Putin stated that there was zero assult on civil buildings in Ukrainian cities... he didn't attempt to justify those as accidental, minor or whatever, it seems he trully believes there are none. He justifies the photos from those as creations of Western intelligences. This guy has no idea what "subscribe" on YouTube means (there was a funny school visit where a boy asked him to subscribe and Putin asked to sign what? In russian subscribe and sign have the same base). He has no idea about real world, I would not be surprised if in his mind he is winning.

mediumsmart 5y ago

hnthrowaway0315 5y ago

China loves globalization, and there was a joke saying that China is willing to re-instate the 1948 Sino-American Treaty of Friendship, Commerce and Navigation but of course that is just a fantasy.

astkaasa 5y ago
confirm this joke

lxe 5y ago

> China really don’t care one bit about Russia Better and bigger trade deals is definitely a benefit for China.

andy_ppp 5y ago
I think jeopardising their market in the West will be problematic for their growth.

astkaasa 5y ago

Maybe they have struggled to be part of the world (west) system, but the west is too greedy that now they're considering they have no other options.