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Not so quick. Finland and Sweden have not (yet?) joined NATO. There has been quite some discussion, especially in Finland. The public opinion has tilted towards

Not so quick. Finland and Sweden have not (yet?) joined NATO. There has been quite some discussion, especially in Finland. The public opinion has tilted towards joining NATO, and maybe we will. Such things take time.

sgjohnson 5y ago
Doesn’t really matter. Finland and Sweden can join NATO in an instant. Their forces are compatible, and they meet all of the entry requirements.
- aynyc 5y ago
  It does matter. Putin can invade Finland and Sweden now, and NATO can’t do anything other than supply weapons. If Finland and Sweden are in NATO, article 5 is automatically triggered and NATO will have to respond militarily immediately.
  - modo_mario 5y ago
    You forget that these countries are in the EU which has it's own mutual defence clause.
    - sgjohnson 5y ago
      And that Putin probably won’t try invading anything for a while now.
      - chinathrow 5y ago
        I am not so sure. The way Russia put in their lousy equipment and untrained staff (if all the reports are to be believed) then his better troops and weapons are not yet there / ready for other use.
        denis1 5y ago
        Or... there aren't better troops and weapons? Hear me out. Russia is corrupt to the core with leadership that's only focused on enriching themselves. It wouldn't surprise me if their conventional military proved to be way less capable then they're presenting it to be. Sure, they have enough smart people that are able to design advanced weaponry, but do they have the industrial capacity to actually build? And do they have the capability to maintain it? How about troop training?
        sgjohnson 5y ago
        They probably don’t. As with almost all modern dictatorships, the military is there to protect the elites from the general populace, and is not fit for much more purpose. Besides Russia doesn’t have to worry about external invaders, because they have their nuclear deterrent. So the state of their military makes perfect sense. Can’t risk a military coup.
      - aynyc 5y ago
        No one knows for sure. Also, if Putin survives this whole Ukraine mess, who's to say he won't try again in 5 years? The point being, the narrative of business is usual is gone. All the countries that are next to or depend on Russia can no longer count on money or appeasement. Nordic and countries next to Russia have to rethink their strategy. Maybe they decide to wait and see the next strong man from Russia will be and negotiate with them. But PEACE based purely on the words of a mad man is precursor for war.
    - koheripbal 5y ago
      Not really. It has an "assistance" clause which does not say anything about military assistance. It was left intentionally vague.
      - shawabawa3 5y ago
        The clause says "members must assist with all the means in their power" or similar wording. Whatever lawyers decide that clause means, I think the odds of outright invasion of an EU member _not_ leading to open european/world war is basically zero
    - aynyc 5y ago
      I didn't. EU mutual defense is loosely defined by lawyers. If EU wants to declare war on Russia, they need NATO and most importantly, Americans. I don't want to knock on Western Europe on military, but without Americans' command and control, as well as logistic support, I don't think EU can mount any substantial military troop movements quickly in respond to an invasion.
  - hdjjhhvvhga 5y ago
    > Putin can invade Finland and Sweden now I can understand that he was lied to, and/or he miscalculated the power of his own army. But at this point it should be clear even to him it's a complete mess and they are being ridiculed by the whole world - outdated equipment, weak morale, soldiers without food, no fuel, sinking tanks. Do they really want to be humiliated by the Nordics? I really doubt so. My take is that Finland and Sweeden will wait a bit to see how the situation develops, and if Putin starts to bark about enlarging the invasion, they will join in a blink.
    - mpfundstein 5y ago
      where do you get your information from? it seems as if you are severly misinformed
      - nicce 5y ago
        We (everyone) have a pretty good look on what is happening, and even propaganda can't hide that. This was designed to be a fast invasion. Everything is pointing into that, relying on the surrender of Ukraine's citizens and military. It failed and we can see consequences.
        mpfundstein 5y ago
        and where precisely is russia failing? did you see their advancements? you recall how long it took to take Bagdad right? you really think Putin thought this will be over in a week? come on.
        nicce 5y ago
        They have rockets, hundreds of aircraft, thousands of tanks and yet the advancement is so slow. Their logistics have failed and there is clearly no proper communication. Well, eventually you win which such a force. Take a note that US came from overseas, yet they had superior logistics. They also advanced hunderds of kilometers in week inside Irak, Russia is still quite stuck close to thr borders. They just got their fist major city.
nicce 5y ago
And it is very dangerous question right now. What will Putin do if they consider joining, just before agreenment? Instead of eliminating one country, he might have lost three countries for Nato instead. Will he send some small warning Nukes into Finland as last hope?
- ajuc 5y ago
  > Will he send some small warning Nukes into Finland as last hope? What would that accomplish? Fins would just join NATO even faster.
  - nicce 5y ago
    I doubt it. Russia might go all in. Because of the geopolitics and strategical requirements of missiles, Russia loses nuclear war (in terms of response time ) if Sweden and Finland joins to NATO. Russia might go very far to prevent that. There is a little seed of truth in their security claims, that Ukraine should stay neutral. Missiles around country in close positions means, that West has better likelihood to win nuclear war with first strike, eliminating the most nukes from Russia. Especially, since they think that US is the enemy. And they want to hit US which is very far. Russia loses their nuclear threat advantage, if other countries can position their missiles better, to reach far better damage with first strike. This is the core of Cuban crisis, and why there are so many bombs, in submarines as well. Russia needs to believe that there is a balance. Stakes are high.
    - ajuc 5y ago
      > Because of the geopolitics and strategical requirements of missiles, Russia loses nuclear war Nothing Russia can do changes that. They know that. We know that. They know we know. It's all just a game of chicken. And for Russia to win they would have to go all in 100 times in a row. Whereas NATO wins if nothing changes. So they won't go all in. It's just a matter of NATO deciding where the final line on sand is. I think we're witnessing it being drawn and Putin mistakenly thought he can do a few more steps.

sgjohnson 5y ago

Doesn’t really matter. Finland and Sweden can join NATO in an instant. Their forces are compatible, and they meet all of the entry requirements.

aynyc 5y ago
It does matter. Putin can invade Finland and Sweden now, and NATO can’t do anything other than supply weapons. If Finland and Sweden are in NATO, article 5 is automatically triggered and NATO will have to respond militarily immediately.
- modo_mario 5y ago
  You forget that these countries are in the EU which has it's own mutual defence clause.
  - sgjohnson 5y ago
    And that Putin probably won’t try invading anything for a while now.
    - chinathrow 5y ago
      I am not so sure. The way Russia put in their lousy equipment and untrained staff (if all the reports are to be believed) then his better troops and weapons are not yet there / ready for other use.
      - denis1 5y ago
        Or... there aren't better troops and weapons? Hear me out. Russia is corrupt to the core with leadership that's only focused on enriching themselves. It wouldn't surprise me if their conventional military proved to be way less capable then they're presenting it to be. Sure, they have enough smart people that are able to design advanced weaponry, but do they have the industrial capacity to actually build? And do they have the capability to maintain it? How about troop training?
        sgjohnson 5y ago
        They probably don’t. As with almost all modern dictatorships, the military is there to protect the elites from the general populace, and is not fit for much more purpose. Besides Russia doesn’t have to worry about external invaders, because they have their nuclear deterrent. So the state of their military makes perfect sense. Can’t risk a military coup.
    - aynyc 5y ago
      No one knows for sure. Also, if Putin survives this whole Ukraine mess, who's to say he won't try again in 5 years? The point being, the narrative of business is usual is gone. All the countries that are next to or depend on Russia can no longer count on money or appeasement. Nordic and countries next to Russia have to rethink their strategy. Maybe they decide to wait and see the next strong man from Russia will be and negotiate with them. But PEACE based purely on the words of a mad man is precursor for war.
  - koheripbal 5y ago
    Not really. It has an "assistance" clause which does not say anything about military assistance. It was left intentionally vague.
    - shawabawa3 5y ago
      The clause says "members must assist with all the means in their power" or similar wording. Whatever lawyers decide that clause means, I think the odds of outright invasion of an EU member _not_ leading to open european/world war is basically zero
  - aynyc 5y ago
    I didn't. EU mutual defense is loosely defined by lawyers. If EU wants to declare war on Russia, they need NATO and most importantly, Americans. I don't want to knock on Western Europe on military, but without Americans' command and control, as well as logistic support, I don't think EU can mount any substantial military troop movements quickly in respond to an invasion.
- hdjjhhvvhga 5y ago
  > Putin can invade Finland and Sweden now I can understand that he was lied to, and/or he miscalculated the power of his own army. But at this point it should be clear even to him it's a complete mess and they are being ridiculed by the whole world - outdated equipment, weak morale, soldiers without food, no fuel, sinking tanks. Do they really want to be humiliated by the Nordics? I really doubt so. My take is that Finland and Sweeden will wait a bit to see how the situation develops, and if Putin starts to bark about enlarging the invasion, they will join in a blink.
  - mpfundstein 5y ago
    where do you get your information from? it seems as if you are severly misinformed
    - nicce 5y ago
      We (everyone) have a pretty good look on what is happening, and even propaganda can't hide that. This was designed to be a fast invasion. Everything is pointing into that, relying on the surrender of Ukraine's citizens and military. It failed and we can see consequences.
      - mpfundstein 5y ago
        and where precisely is russia failing? did you see their advancements? you recall how long it took to take Bagdad right? you really think Putin thought this will be over in a week? come on.
        nicce 5y ago
        They have rockets, hundreds of aircraft, thousands of tanks and yet the advancement is so slow. Their logistics have failed and there is clearly no proper communication. Well, eventually you win which such a force. Take a note that US came from overseas, yet they had superior logistics. They also advanced hunderds of kilometers in week inside Irak, Russia is still quite stuck close to thr borders. They just got their fist major city.

nicce 5y ago

And it is very dangerous question right now. What will Putin do if they consider joining, just before agreenment? Instead of eliminating one country, he might have lost three countries for Nato instead. Will he send some small warning Nukes into Finland as last hope?

ajuc 5y ago
> Will he send some small warning Nukes into Finland as last hope? What would that accomplish? Fins would just join NATO even faster.
- nicce 5y ago
  I doubt it. Russia might go all in. Because of the geopolitics and strategical requirements of missiles, Russia loses nuclear war (in terms of response time ) if Sweden and Finland joins to NATO. Russia might go very far to prevent that. There is a little seed of truth in their security claims, that Ukraine should stay neutral. Missiles around country in close positions means, that West has better likelihood to win nuclear war with first strike, eliminating the most nukes from Russia. Especially, since they think that US is the enemy. And they want to hit US which is very far. Russia loses their nuclear threat advantage, if other countries can position their missiles better, to reach far better damage with first strike. This is the core of Cuban crisis, and why there are so many bombs, in submarines as well. Russia needs to believe that there is a balance. Stakes are high.
  - ajuc 5y ago
    > Because of the geopolitics and strategical requirements of missiles, Russia loses nuclear war Nothing Russia can do changes that. They know that. We know that. They know we know. It's all just a game of chicken. And for Russia to win they would have to go all in 100 times in a row. Whereas NATO wins if nothing changes. So they won't go all in. It's just a matter of NATO deciding where the final line on sand is. I think we're witnessing it being drawn and Putin mistakenly thought he can do a few more steps.