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There's around 40 million people that might have a problem with that.

by jwlake 5y ago

mattnewton 5y ago
Yeah I can't help but wonder if Putin is trying to run a playbook that worked in parts of Georgia and "worked" in Chechnya (eventually remaining Russian territory, at great cost), but doesn't scale to major Ukranian cities.
- adventured 5y ago
  Russia's only possible 'winning' outcome at this point is to subjugate and murder huge numbers of Ukrainians under a brutal police state, if Putin wants to hold most of the population centers. It'll take a very long time before they'll stop fighting back, Russia will have to debase the culture (they might try it China style, bring in a lot Russian citizens to live in those cities and begin a full, forced transformation, while you violently try to strip away Ukrainian culture). It sure seems like Putin expected them to capitulate quickly and become largely docile before the occupying Russian soldiers while a new government is installed. Not much else explains their approach thus far other than that (their supply provisioning was clearly built for a very short conflict). If Russia doesn't go for the full brutal police state approach, they'll hemorrhage with any typical occupation and will have to leave, and any new system they attempt to install and leave behind will be toppled rapidly (the Russians will have to keep sending forces in).
  - geoka9 5y ago
    I agree, that's the only thing they know how to do efficiently: > If Russia doesn't go for the full brutal police state approach Ukrainians are used to living in a democracy though, so it may not be easy/possible. > bring in a lot Russian citizens to live in those cities and begin a full, forced transformation, while you violently try to strip away Ukrainian culture That's what they did back in the 1930s in East Ukraine. They had to starve out/relocate the locals to make room for the "colonists". But doing this in the 21st century? I shudder to think how this would go down. And if they don't do this, anyone who comes over to settle will be met with extreme hostility. I believe Putin lives in the past when it comes to understanding Ukraine and Ukrainians. It looks like he might actually believe (have believed?) his own propaganda.
    - 0000011111 5y ago
      Yes, and looking forward he has the spotlight of the world agents him. I do not think the question is wether or not Ukraine will fall to the Russian state. But if the Russian economy and current government will stay viable through the duration of the war. Global sanctions applied correctly could cause a refugee crises in Russia population ~144 million. In short, Russian people need their basic needs met. Just like any human. They will go where that can happen more easily if their own country can not provide. 57,792 kilometres of Russian boarder length is ripe for exit.
      - dragonwriter 5y ago
        > 57,792 kilometres of Russian boarder length is ripe for exit. “border”, and the vast majority of that is coastline, and the vast majority of the coastline is Arctic coastline, which is very much not ripe for exit.

There's around 40 million people that might have a problem with that.

by jwlake 5y ago

There's around 40 million people that might have a problem with that.

Yeah I can't help but wonder if Putin is trying to run a playbook that worked in parts of Georgia and "worked" in Chechnya (eventually remaining Russian territory, at great cost), but doesn't scale to major Ukranian cities.

adventured 5y ago
Russia's only possible 'winning' outcome at this point is to subjugate and murder huge numbers of Ukrainians under a brutal police state, if Putin wants to hold most of the population centers. It'll take a very long time before they'll stop fighting back, Russia will have to debase the culture (they might try it China style, bring in a lot Russian citizens to live in those cities and begin a full, forced transformation, while you violently try to strip away Ukrainian culture). It sure seems like Putin expected them to capitulate quickly and become largely docile before the occupying Russian soldiers while a new government is installed. Not much else explains their approach thus far other than that (their supply provisioning was clearly built for a very short conflict). If Russia doesn't go for the full brutal police state approach, they'll hemorrhage with any typical occupation and will have to leave, and any new system they attempt to install and leave behind will be toppled rapidly (the Russians will have to keep sending forces in).
- geoka9 5y ago
  I agree, that's the only thing they know how to do efficiently: > If Russia doesn't go for the full brutal police state approach Ukrainians are used to living in a democracy though, so it may not be easy/possible. > bring in a lot Russian citizens to live in those cities and begin a full, forced transformation, while you violently try to strip away Ukrainian culture That's what they did back in the 1930s in East Ukraine. They had to starve out/relocate the locals to make room for the "colonists". But doing this in the 21st century? I shudder to think how this would go down. And if they don't do this, anyone who comes over to settle will be met with extreme hostility. I believe Putin lives in the past when it comes to understanding Ukraine and Ukrainians. It looks like he might actually believe (have believed?) his own propaganda.
  - 0000011111 5y ago
    Yes, and looking forward he has the spotlight of the world agents him. I do not think the question is wether or not Ukraine will fall to the Russian state. But if the Russian economy and current government will stay viable through the duration of the war. Global sanctions applied correctly could cause a refugee crises in Russia population ~144 million. In short, Russian people need their basic needs met. Just like any human. They will go where that can happen more easily if their own country can not provide. 57,792 kilometres of Russian boarder length is ripe for exit.
    - dragonwriter 5y ago
      > 57,792 kilometres of Russian boarder length is ripe for exit. “border”, and the vast majority of that is coastline, and the vast majority of the coastline is Arctic coastline, which is very much not ripe for exit.