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IMO, what the West has done is shown an incredible display of power, killing multiple birds with one stone: 1.) Attempt to prevent Russia from accessing new fo
by eezurr 5y ago
IMO, what the West has done is shown an incredible display of power, killing multiple birds with one stone:
1.) Attempt to prevent Russia from accessing new found gas/oil reserves. [3]
2.) Continue to press Russia into a corner as the West continues to expand its influence. [1]
3.) Show and tell China the consequences of economic sanctions and economic war, and our willingness and ability to do so. [speculation]
For one, the Ukraine invasion is the US's fault. This has been covered in depth by John Mearsheimer in 2015 in his lecture "Why is Ukraine the West's Fault?" after the Orange Revolution and Russia capturing of Crimea [1]. And there is also some rational speculation here regarding the discovery of natural resources. [3]
What the US (which has major influence over Europe/NATO, so it's not clear how much of a choice Europe had here)[2] has essentially done is shown the world that we can manipulate and control the status quo (i.e. win a "war") without firing a shot or dropping a bomb. The new tools of war are economic control, and we're the heaviest guerilla in the room [4].
What's brilliant is the US's ability to make Putin appear much more evil than he really is. Yes, he is a dictator and isn't a good person, but he's been bringing back Russia from the dead and lifting its people out of poverty. Some of Putin's invasions occurred because we, the West/NATO, offered membership to those countries, when Russia made it clear that was a big no-no [1]. Forcing Russia to invade Ukraine is brilliant because Putin is evil in the West's eyes, but it was 100% necessary for Putin to invade because having that much of his boarder exposed to NATO is an incredibly vulnerable position to be in, and he made that clear to us years ago [1]. Note, the US would react just the same. We have the Monroe Doctrine and the Cuban Missile Crisis to show for it. [5][6]. So Putin is forced to play the worst hand, invading his sibling country (which makes him appear more evil), spend billions of dollars to do so, and lose many of his economic connections to the world. I think the West's goal here is to deliver the final blow to Putin and topple his regime, even if it requires killing innocent people along the way.
Other notes:
Russia's economy is strongly linked to natural gas and oil, and earlier this century a huge deposit of both was found in Ukraine and in their economic coastal zone/area. [3]
Mearsheimer notably distinguishes the West and East's methods of international politics into "21st century 'walk in and do whatever we please'" and "19th century 'balance of power politics'". The US is such a powerful country that it wont face any negative repercussions for interfering with the world order nor invading smaller countries.
[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4
[2] The US contributes over 10x the funds of the 2nd largest contributor (Germany) to NATO, and represents about 70% of the total pot. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/this-is-how-much-nato-countries-spend-on-defense/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/this-is-how-much-nato-count...
[3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If61baWF4GE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If61baWF4GE . Note, this video is a bit too pro-western to be fair/balanced. It does not consider the possibility that the US wants to get into Ukraine for oil/gas.
[4] https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/gdp-by-country/ https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/gdp-by-country/
[5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monroe_Doctrine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monroe_Doctrine
[6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_Missile_Crisis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuban_Missile_Crisis
</armchair>
Edit: Wow, people are flagging my sourced backed, neutral view comment? Can someone at HN please unflag the comment? @dang
- cheeselip420 5y agoAt some point, Russian paranoia is the root cause here and not the west further pushing east. If France, Germany and the UK can all get along after the 20th century wars, then there is no reason for Russia to be so paranoid about their 'flank'. Especially as the nature of warfare has changed to a due to technology since then. It's like if I get suckerpunched by someone on a subway, because his great-granddaddy was once mugged on the subway 60 years ago. It explains it, but it doesn't excuse it.
- llampx 5y agoThe relationship of France, Germany and UK to the US is not the same as Russia or China to the US.
- cheeselip420 5y agoOf course not. Because Russia is too paranoid, and too authoritarian (which is my point).
- awb 5y agoI think the point is that France, Germany and the UK (and all of Europe) used to engage in wars of conquest constantly throughout history. After WWII the victors decided that needed to stop and they decided to trust each other and get along. For some countries, peace is more important than trying to redraw borders through force.
- swamp40 5y ago>> there is no reason for Russia to be so paranoid about their 'flank' The US doesn't allow Russian influence anywhere in their entire western hemisphere. Are we just paranoid too? China is the same. Superpowers WILL ALWAYS defend their borders. To the end if necessary, when their very existence is at stake.
- dragonwriter 5y ago> The US doesn't allow Russian influence anywhere in their entire western hemisphere Yes, it does. It opposes it, sure, but it hasn't launched a full-on invasion of any of the states that are Russian-influenced in the Western hemisphere.