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The Russian military seems to be extremely unmotivated, and rightly so. This is Putin's war. Nobody else wanted it. There is evidence that lower ranks in the Ru

The Russian military seems to be extremely unmotivated, and rightly so. This is Putin's war. Nobody else wanted it. There is evidence that lower ranks in the Russian military don't want to kill their neighbors who mostly speak the same language. Morale is very low, as many cases of abandoned vehicles and surrender illustrate. Unfortunately, the longer a war goes on, the more both sides harden and the more brutal the war becomes. I wonder if it wouldn't help for the West to guarantee political asylum for Russian deserters, maybe even with a new identity for them. But I don't know if this is practically achievable, at least not without extensive vetting and not as long as they are PoWs. Has this ever been attempted?

seanw444 5y ago
+1 to a witness-protection-type program for Russian soldiers. How can we expect them to want to stop without it? The choice is: carry out your questionable orders, or be court-martialed and be sentenced to treason by a stone-cold regime. The decision is pretty obvious for most.
- Moru 5y ago
  Ukraine is offering complete amnesty and 40000 euro for deserters.
pjc50 5y ago
Ukraine has already offered to pay defectors, at a significantly higher rate than the compensation Russia pays to their family if they are killed.
- hef19898 5y ago
  Ukraine is playing this whole thing, so far, brilliantly. The time to prepare since Crimea was annexed was apparently used very, very well.
  - M2Ys4U 5y ago
    They have been constantly battling Russian/Russian backed forces in Donbass as well. That's going to have given them valuable experience over the last 8 years.
  - AutumnCurtain 5y ago
    Anyone who has worked in public leadership will recognize that Zelensky has been putting on a diplomacy/PR/propaganda masterclass. His decisions and actions will be studied for a long time to come as an example of how to gain and exert soft power, and how to translate soft power to material power.
    - Robotbeat 5y ago
      Yup, and the reason it’s working is Zelenskyy is putting himself at huge risk as part of it. Risk like that cannot be faked, and people know it. People know that some of the stuff is flashy PR stunts and exaggerations, but it doesn’t matter because Zelenskyy is clearly willing to risk his life for this. Like, an enormous, enormous risk. He has maybe a 50% chance of surviving this. Absolute legend. And we can see the whole country is cut from the same cloth. That will to fight matters more than the sophistication of their weapons. Weapons without the will to fight just go right into the enemy’s hands as you surrender. In a sense, soft power then is the vastly more important power.
      - jacquesm 5y ago
        If Kyiv falls that is 0%. The risk is a lot higher to him, he can't just walk out of this or be evac'd. The Russians have a price on his head and want him dead because they believe that that will break the Ukrainian spirit, which I highly doubt will be the effect, if anything it will spur them on.
        throwaway0a5e 5y ago
        Zelensky has broad cultural appeal in Ukraine (or you could frame it as "he's not polarizing and isn't hated by a large fraction of the country" which I think is the better way to look at it). How else would someone become president with such a limited political background? Killing him would be a textbook way to make a martyr. I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for the Russians to read the ideological room. The details of this operation seems predicated on Russian misunderstanding of who they were dealing with. An entire generation has grown up living with the background threat of Russian aggression and this point has really been driven home sine 2014. Expecting the people and leaders of Ukraine to not be mentally prepared for that comes across like the nation state version of the feds showing up on the doorstep of a bunch of apocalypse preaching crazies expecting an easy win and then being baffled that their victims prefer to die together. Or something might happen and Ukraine might just roll over. Nobody knows yet. Time will tell.
criddell 5y ago
The asylum for deserters probably wouldn't work if they have family back in Russia.
- goda90 5y ago
  Though if invasion failing is what finally takes down Putin's regime, then the deserters might likely be granted pardons by the next regime.
  - T-A 5y ago
    If they are still alive.
    - smcl 5y ago
      Wait, we're talking about deserters who would have opted to take political asylum in Europe instead of fighting. Why would they be dead?
      - lordnacho 5y ago
        Novichok
      - T-A 5y ago
        There are a few steps between sneaking away from your unit and securing political asylum in Europe. Do you sneak away at the front? The opposition is hunting infiltrators, will they ask questions or shoot first? Do you sneak out behind the front? Your own side is likely to dispense quick "justice" and report you as KIA if you're caught (less trouble). How do you get to a border with a Western country? Do you stay in Ukraine and wait for things to settle down before making your move? That's a bet that you won't find yourself in a Russian-occupied zone. And so on.
- dahdum 5y ago
  How willing would Russia be to admit they deserted instead of surrendering or capture? Each family you punish is like telling their every colleague, relative, neighbor, and friend your army is faltering.
jdrc 5y ago
putin's war or not it's the result that matters
boonez123 5y ago
This is brilliant, why stop at political asylum? Change the narrative for attacking soldiers as a way to escape a regime and make some money. If you incentivized deserting without consequences that would be interesting. If each soldier was paid 10k to dessert and pick a country to immigrate to. Total cost 1.9billion on 190k soldiers. If you don’t dessert and join Ukraine in their fight you get 100k.
- yayr 5y ago
  it's actually 40 TEUR https://www.dailysabah.com/world/europe/kyiv-offers-over-40k-euros-amnesty-to-russian-soldiers-who-surrender https://www.dailysabah.com/world/europe/kyiv-offers-over-40k...

seanw444 5y ago

+1 to a witness-protection-type program for Russian soldiers. How can we expect them to want to stop without it? The choice is: carry out your questionable orders, or be court-martialed and be sentenced to treason by a stone-cold regime. The decision is pretty obvious for most.

Moru 5y ago
Ukraine is offering complete amnesty and 40000 euro for deserters.

pjc50 5y ago

Ukraine has already offered to pay defectors, at a significantly higher rate than the compensation Russia pays to their family if they are killed.

hef19898 5y ago
Ukraine is playing this whole thing, so far, brilliantly. The time to prepare since Crimea was annexed was apparently used very, very well.
- M2Ys4U 5y ago
  They have been constantly battling Russian/Russian backed forces in Donbass as well. That's going to have given them valuable experience over the last 8 years.
- AutumnCurtain 5y ago
  Anyone who has worked in public leadership will recognize that Zelensky has been putting on a diplomacy/PR/propaganda masterclass. His decisions and actions will be studied for a long time to come as an example of how to gain and exert soft power, and how to translate soft power to material power.
  - Robotbeat 5y ago
    Yup, and the reason it’s working is Zelenskyy is putting himself at huge risk as part of it. Risk like that cannot be faked, and people know it. People know that some of the stuff is flashy PR stunts and exaggerations, but it doesn’t matter because Zelenskyy is clearly willing to risk his life for this. Like, an enormous, enormous risk. He has maybe a 50% chance of surviving this. Absolute legend. And we can see the whole country is cut from the same cloth. That will to fight matters more than the sophistication of their weapons. Weapons without the will to fight just go right into the enemy’s hands as you surrender. In a sense, soft power then is the vastly more important power.
    - jacquesm 5y ago
      If Kyiv falls that is 0%. The risk is a lot higher to him, he can't just walk out of this or be evac'd. The Russians have a price on his head and want him dead because they believe that that will break the Ukrainian spirit, which I highly doubt will be the effect, if anything it will spur them on.
      - throwaway0a5e 5y ago
        Zelensky has broad cultural appeal in Ukraine (or you could frame it as "he's not polarizing and isn't hated by a large fraction of the country" which I think is the better way to look at it). How else would someone become president with such a limited political background? Killing him would be a textbook way to make a martyr. I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for the Russians to read the ideological room. The details of this operation seems predicated on Russian misunderstanding of who they were dealing with. An entire generation has grown up living with the background threat of Russian aggression and this point has really been driven home sine 2014. Expecting the people and leaders of Ukraine to not be mentally prepared for that comes across like the nation state version of the feds showing up on the doorstep of a bunch of apocalypse preaching crazies expecting an easy win and then being baffled that their victims prefer to die together. Or something might happen and Ukraine might just roll over. Nobody knows yet. Time will tell.

criddell 5y ago

The asylum for deserters probably wouldn't work if they have family back in Russia.

goda90 5y ago
Though if invasion failing is what finally takes down Putin's regime, then the deserters might likely be granted pardons by the next regime.
- T-A 5y ago
  If they are still alive.
  - smcl 5y ago
    Wait, we're talking about deserters who would have opted to take political asylum in Europe instead of fighting. Why would they be dead?
    - lordnacho 5y ago
      Novichok
    - T-A 5y ago
      There are a few steps between sneaking away from your unit and securing political asylum in Europe. Do you sneak away at the front? The opposition is hunting infiltrators, will they ask questions or shoot first? Do you sneak out behind the front? Your own side is likely to dispense quick "justice" and report you as KIA if you're caught (less trouble). How do you get to a border with a Western country? Do you stay in Ukraine and wait for things to settle down before making your move? That's a bet that you won't find yourself in a Russian-occupied zone. And so on.
dahdum 5y ago
How willing would Russia be to admit they deserted instead of surrendering or capture? Each family you punish is like telling their every colleague, relative, neighbor, and friend your army is faltering.

jdrc 5y ago

putin's war or not it's the result that matters

boonez123 5y ago

This is brilliant, why stop at political asylum? Change the narrative for attacking soldiers as a way to escape a regime and make some money. If you incentivized deserting without consequences that would be interesting. If each soldier was paid 10k to dessert and pick a country to immigrate to. Total cost 1.9billion on 190k soldiers. If you don’t dessert and join Ukraine in their fight you get 100k.

yayr 5y ago
it's actually 40 TEUR https://www.dailysabah.com/world/europe/kyiv-offers-over-40k-euros-amnesty-to-russian-soldiers-who-surrender https://www.dailysabah.com/world/europe/kyiv-offers-over-40k...