6 ms·

> Once there is a casus belli, cyberattacks will likely follow to degrade Ukraine’s military command and control systems and public communications and electrica

by bhaak 5y ago

> Once there is a casus belli, cyberattacks will likely follow to degrade Ukraine’s military command and control systems and public communications and electrical grids. Next, kinetic operations will likely begin with air and missile strikes against Ukraine’s air force and air defense systems. Once air superiority is established, Russian ground forces would move forward, slightly preceded by special operations to degrade further command and control capabilities and delay the mobilization of reserves by conducting bombings, assassinations, and sabotage operations. The Russian commandants were so sure about their chances that they didn't wait for air superiority. Or, they didn't want to be seen as an invader but a liberator and as we know that failed terribly.

risyachka 5y ago
Imagine how disconnected from the reality Putin must have been if in the modern world where you can get any information, to be so wrong about this. It looks like he really believed rusian army will be welcomed in Ukraine.
- bhaak 5y ago
  Possibly also assuming that the Ukrainian army would falter like it did in 2014. Totally ignoring (or not even receiving) the intelligence reports about the buildup that happened since then. In any case, it's a surprising display of incompetence on so many levels. Possibly enough that in the end Putin's regime will fall without making Ukraine or the world a wasteland.
- meigwilym 5y ago
  I read that he's been isolating himself because of Covid, and that he has a very limited circle of people who are allowed to talk to him (see the images of him at the head on a comically long table). If this is true and those people are sycophants, then he's operating in a different reality.
  - hef19898 5y ago
    That could explain a lot. Putin never struck me as the guy taking stupid risks and being prone to rash decisions.
  - rtkaratekid 5y ago
    Sounds like what Hitler ended up doing.
  - e1g 5y ago
    It's helpful to remember that there is effectively no free/independent press in Russia (certainly not at these official meetings). Nobody snaps an embarrassing photo or takes a compromising video - all media is curated, censored, and crafted for release. If you're seeing it, it's because Kremlin wanted you to see it.
    - mhb 5y ago
      What's the message from that photo? That if Putin starts feeling unwell after the conference it wasn't due to one of those guys at the other end of the table?
      - e1g 5y ago
        In that photo, the message is "There is only one ruler". Putin represents the stern father figure, and in the moment of crisis, he does not debate, discuss, plead, or succumbs to the influence of the lesser court dwellers or foreigners. Another example is this video of Putin's "heated exchange" with his chief spy [1]. The point of releasing that clip is to demonstrate that "The weak, meek, and confused oppose the ongoing liberation on independent nations". Viewers would not see themselves reflected in the speaker, and that distances them from his ideas. Yet there is a strong protagonist in that clip. [1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2022/feb/22/speak-plainly-putin-tense-exchange-spy-chief-ukraine-video https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2022/feb/22/speak-pl...
  - ProjectArcturis 5y ago
    It happened to George W and Dick Cheney when they convinced themselves Saddam was building nukes but the Iraqis would welcome us as liberators. Same thing here.
- SketchySeaBeast 5y ago
  If we assume that we should probably all be really alarmed that a man that disconnected from reality has their finger on the nuclear trigger. I find the idea that they are ruthless and calculating and trying to force something that no one wants to somehow be the much less frightening option.
  - risyachka 5y ago
    Fortunately there is still a chain of command. He can't just press a button and launch nukes.
- lodovic 5y ago
  The narrative that "the native population will be happy, and they are suppressed by Nazis" is propaganda aimed at the Russian people and the army. Putin knows very well what's happening, he has been planning this war for a very long time. He made sure the EU received less gas than agreed last summer, so their reserves are insufficient. Leaked plans show he is aiming to attack Moldova next.
jonathanstrange 5y ago
The Russian military seems to be extremely unmotivated, and rightly so. This is Putin's war. Nobody else wanted it. There is evidence that lower ranks in the Russian military don't want to kill their neighbors who mostly speak the same language. Morale is very low, as many cases of abandoned vehicles and surrender illustrate. Unfortunately, the longer a war goes on, the more both sides harden and the more brutal the war becomes. I wonder if it wouldn't help for the West to guarantee political asylum for Russian deserters, maybe even with a new identity for them. But I don't know if this is practically achievable, at least not without extensive vetting and not as long as they are PoWs. Has this ever been attempted?
- seanw444 5y ago
  +1 to a witness-protection-type program for Russian soldiers. How can we expect them to want to stop without it? The choice is: carry out your questionable orders, or be court-martialed and be sentenced to treason by a stone-cold regime. The decision is pretty obvious for most.
  - Moru 5y ago
    Ukraine is offering complete amnesty and 40000 euro for deserters.
- pjc50 5y ago
  Ukraine has already offered to pay defectors, at a significantly higher rate than the compensation Russia pays to their family if they are killed.
  - hef19898 5y ago
    Ukraine is playing this whole thing, so far, brilliantly. The time to prepare since Crimea was annexed was apparently used very, very well.
    - M2Ys4U 5y ago
      They have been constantly battling Russian/Russian backed forces in Donbass as well. That's going to have given them valuable experience over the last 8 years.
mhb 5y ago
Or other reasons: https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/mysterious-case-missing-russian-air-force https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentar...
- ramesh31 5y ago
  >Or other reasons: https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentar https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentar... I think there's a far simpler explanation; genocide. Putin has been throwing Chechen conscripts into this meatgrinder at a pace which shows he has zero issues whatsoever with any level of casualties. The losses are a feature, not a bug. This is Russia, not Iran. They have reserves of over 10 million troops to call on, and the worlds largest inventory of military equipment. He knows he can just throw bodies at this and avoid losing the expensive aircraft and pilots he will need for his coming showdown with NATO.
  - Robotbeat 5y ago
    Okay, by trying to operate all that (mostly incredibly crappy) equipment and massive conscript reserves in a hostile country all at once means just burning up your fuel and food much faster, leaving your equipment stranded and your soldiers deserting. You wouldn’t think logistics would be a problem just 100 or 200 miles away from your own de facto borders, but here we are. I’m sure Ukraine appreciates all the weapons Russia is donating to them, though.
    - ramesh31 5y ago
      >Okay, by trying to operate all that (mostly incredibly crappy) equipment and massive conscript reserves in a hostile country all at once means just burning up your fuel and food much faster Russia has unlimited food and fuel. And their capture of Ukraine will only solidify that. Soldiers and tanks are cheap. Su-57's and pilots are not. >You wouldn’t think logistics would be a problem just 100 or 200 miles away from your own de facto borders, but here we are. This is week 1 of an invasion that is going to last for years. Moving that kind of tonnage just physically takes time no matter what.
shusaku 5y ago
I was also very interested in that point. Later in the article, they also suggest the US give (via a lend-lease program) equipment to prevent Russia from gaining air superiority. So I wonder if the analysis of both the authors and Russia is that gaining air superiority would be time consuming, and Russia thought they needed to try ti advance faster.
atlantas 5y ago
> Once air superiority is established, Russian ground forces would move forward >> they didn't wait for air superiority Are we sure they didn't? Otherwise how do you explain the 40 mile long convoy not being attacked by air?
- bhaak 5y ago
  Just because the Russian army doesn't have air superiority doesn't mean they have no air support at all. It's possible the convoy is protected but that the Russians can't or don't want to deploy more aircrafts for other operations. It's also possible that the Ukrainians don't want to attack the convoy but the support this convoy needs to get. That's a powerful tactic if you can cut off the supply chain for such a massive number of vehicles. Note: I'm no military expert (is there a handy acronym for that?) :-)

by bhaak 5y ago

risyachka 5y ago

Imagine how disconnected from the reality Putin must have been if in the modern world where you can get any information, to be so wrong about this. It looks like he really believed rusian army will be welcomed in Ukraine.

bhaak 5y ago
Possibly also assuming that the Ukrainian army would falter like it did in 2014. Totally ignoring (or not even receiving) the intelligence reports about the buildup that happened since then. In any case, it's a surprising display of incompetence on so many levels. Possibly enough that in the end Putin's regime will fall without making Ukraine or the world a wasteland.
meigwilym 5y ago
I read that he's been isolating himself because of Covid, and that he has a very limited circle of people who are allowed to talk to him (see the images of him at the head on a comically long table). If this is true and those people are sycophants, then he's operating in a different reality.
- hef19898 5y ago
  That could explain a lot. Putin never struck me as the guy taking stupid risks and being prone to rash decisions.
- rtkaratekid 5y ago
  Sounds like what Hitler ended up doing.
- e1g 5y ago
  It's helpful to remember that there is effectively no free/independent press in Russia (certainly not at these official meetings). Nobody snaps an embarrassing photo or takes a compromising video - all media is curated, censored, and crafted for release. If you're seeing it, it's because Kremlin wanted you to see it.
  - mhb 5y ago
    What's the message from that photo? That if Putin starts feeling unwell after the conference it wasn't due to one of those guys at the other end of the table?
    - e1g 5y ago
      In that photo, the message is "There is only one ruler". Putin represents the stern father figure, and in the moment of crisis, he does not debate, discuss, plead, or succumbs to the influence of the lesser court dwellers or foreigners. Another example is this video of Putin's "heated exchange" with his chief spy [1]. The point of releasing that clip is to demonstrate that "The weak, meek, and confused oppose the ongoing liberation on independent nations". Viewers would not see themselves reflected in the speaker, and that distances them from his ideas. Yet there is a strong protagonist in that clip. [1] https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2022/feb/22/speak-plainly-putin-tense-exchange-spy-chief-ukraine-video https://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2022/feb/22/speak-pl...
- ProjectArcturis 5y ago
  It happened to George W and Dick Cheney when they convinced themselves Saddam was building nukes but the Iraqis would welcome us as liberators. Same thing here.
SketchySeaBeast 5y ago
If we assume that we should probably all be really alarmed that a man that disconnected from reality has their finger on the nuclear trigger. I find the idea that they are ruthless and calculating and trying to force something that no one wants to somehow be the much less frightening option.
- risyachka 5y ago
  Fortunately there is still a chain of command. He can't just press a button and launch nukes.
lodovic 5y ago
The narrative that "the native population will be happy, and they are suppressed by Nazis" is propaganda aimed at the Russian people and the army. Putin knows very well what's happening, he has been planning this war for a very long time. He made sure the EU received less gas than agreed last summer, so their reserves are insufficient. Leaked plans show he is aiming to attack Moldova next.

jonathanstrange 5y ago

The Russian military seems to be extremely unmotivated, and rightly so. This is Putin's war. Nobody else wanted it. There is evidence that lower ranks in the Russian military don't want to kill their neighbors who mostly speak the same language. Morale is very low, as many cases of abandoned vehicles and surrender illustrate. Unfortunately, the longer a war goes on, the more both sides harden and the more brutal the war becomes. I wonder if it wouldn't help for the West to guarantee political asylum for Russian deserters, maybe even with a new identity for them. But I don't know if this is practically achievable, at least not without extensive vetting and not as long as they are PoWs. Has this ever been attempted?

seanw444 5y ago
+1 to a witness-protection-type program for Russian soldiers. How can we expect them to want to stop without it? The choice is: carry out your questionable orders, or be court-martialed and be sentenced to treason by a stone-cold regime. The decision is pretty obvious for most.
- Moru 5y ago
  Ukraine is offering complete amnesty and 40000 euro for deserters.
pjc50 5y ago
Ukraine has already offered to pay defectors, at a significantly higher rate than the compensation Russia pays to their family if they are killed.
- hef19898 5y ago
  Ukraine is playing this whole thing, so far, brilliantly. The time to prepare since Crimea was annexed was apparently used very, very well.
  - M2Ys4U 5y ago
    They have been constantly battling Russian/Russian backed forces in Donbass as well. That's going to have given them valuable experience over the last 8 years.

mhb 5y ago

Or other reasons: https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/mysterious-case-missing-russian-air-force https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentar...

ramesh31 5y ago
>Or other reasons: https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentar https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentar... I think there's a far simpler explanation; genocide. Putin has been throwing Chechen conscripts into this meatgrinder at a pace which shows he has zero issues whatsoever with any level of casualties. The losses are a feature, not a bug. This is Russia, not Iran. They have reserves of over 10 million troops to call on, and the worlds largest inventory of military equipment. He knows he can just throw bodies at this and avoid losing the expensive aircraft and pilots he will need for his coming showdown with NATO.
- Robotbeat 5y ago
  Okay, by trying to operate all that (mostly incredibly crappy) equipment and massive conscript reserves in a hostile country all at once means just burning up your fuel and food much faster, leaving your equipment stranded and your soldiers deserting. You wouldn’t think logistics would be a problem just 100 or 200 miles away from your own de facto borders, but here we are. I’m sure Ukraine appreciates all the weapons Russia is donating to them, though.
  - ramesh31 5y ago
    >Okay, by trying to operate all that (mostly incredibly crappy) equipment and massive conscript reserves in a hostile country all at once means just burning up your fuel and food much faster Russia has unlimited food and fuel. And their capture of Ukraine will only solidify that. Soldiers and tanks are cheap. Su-57's and pilots are not. >You wouldn’t think logistics would be a problem just 100 or 200 miles away from your own de facto borders, but here we are. This is week 1 of an invasion that is going to last for years. Moving that kind of tonnage just physically takes time no matter what.

shusaku 5y ago

I was also very interested in that point. Later in the article, they also suggest the US give (via a lend-lease program) equipment to prevent Russia from gaining air superiority. So I wonder if the analysis of both the authors and Russia is that gaining air superiority would be time consuming, and Russia thought they needed to try ti advance faster.

atlantas 5y ago

> Once air superiority is established, Russian ground forces would move forward >> they didn't wait for air superiority Are we sure they didn't? Otherwise how do you explain the 40 mile long convoy not being attacked by air?

bhaak 5y ago
Just because the Russian army doesn't have air superiority doesn't mean they have no air support at all. It's possible the convoy is protected but that the Russians can't or don't want to deploy more aircrafts for other operations. It's also possible that the Ukrainians don't want to attack the convoy but the support this convoy needs to get. That's a powerful tactic if you can cut off the supply chain for such a massive number of vehicles. Note: I'm no military expert (is there a handy acronym for that?) :-)