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It looks stupid to me too. Which is precisely why I think there's information I'm missing. Like, I've seen arguments that the whole "Ukraine joining NATO" just

It looks stupid to me too. Which is precisely why I think there's information I'm missing. Like, I've seen arguments that the whole "Ukraine joining NATO" justification is just a pretext. But if that's just a pretext, what's the actual reason? I haven't seen a good answer yet. I honestly don't think we'll know the true story for decades.

phatfish 5y ago
The reason? Same as most other people with power, more power. It's just dictators like Putin can act on the impulses of their ego and ignore everyone else. The power gained in this case is attempting to rebuild the Russian empire by "liberating" areas that have since become independent countries and want nothing to do with the Russian rule.
tguvot 5y ago
Google translate this: https://web.archive.org/web/20220226224717/https://ria.ru/20220226/rossiya-1775162336.html https://web.archive.org/web/20220226224717/https://ria.ru/20... It was auto published on 26 on ria and bunch of other sites and than purged. It explains everything
- CamperBob2 5y ago
  "Can't translate this." - typically useful error message from Google.
  - tguvot 5y ago
    Just copy/paste text. But overall idea .. "russia is restoring russian world by combining together russian people: greatrussian (russians), small russians (ukranians) and whiterussians... putin took upon himself historic mission of finally solving ukranian question... .. with each year it would have been harder and harder to bring ukraine back to russia... it doesn't means that ukraine as state dissappear but it recharted, restructured and returned to be part of the russian world... etc.. etc.. etc.. see the idea ?
    - CamperBob2 5y ago
      Yes; that sounds similar in some ways to Fiona Hill's take on it at https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340 https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-... .
      - tguvot 5y ago
        well... reading article... she is right on spot. kinda same conclusions as I had a few days ago that made me wish to move away of population centers. kinda brings up a phrase that was thrown by some russian official or tv person a few years ago: "what's the need in the world that doesn't have russia in it"
- KptMarchewa 5y ago
  It's just a piece of propaganda, and how they were going to explain (in their thoughts) fast, painless war. It does not represent real thoughts of those in power.
  - tguvot 5y ago
    you are kind of wrong. putin been obsessed for years with loss of russian empire/ussr. after 2014 he started to claim that ukraine is not legitimate state. it's common opinion in russia that ukranians are not really nation, but just "variety" of russians and they do not deserve to have their own state. and that ukraine it's west(anglo-saxon) project in order to destroy russia one extra point: this book is written by somebody who is considered to be putin's guru. wiki article contains summary of the book. go through it and for every bullet point that you find something corresponding in today's reality, get yourself a candy :) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics i also found today's interview with author of this book. interview pretty much exactly echoes sentiments of the article (google translate is your friend). https://bloknot-voronezh.ru/news/nikakogo-yanukovicha-2-0-pozvolit-bolshe-ne-mozhem https://bloknot-voronezh.ru/news/nikakogo-yanukovicha-2-0-po... it's not propoganda. it's just batshit crazy people who are obsessed with rebuilding russian empire. is it so hard to believe when we have qanon on display for past few years ?
_trampeltier 5y ago
I also I feel like I miss something there. Maybe was tricked into war by .. I don't know .. and the war is just collateral demage. Maybe his information had been so wrong because he and all people around him lives in a bubble.
vardump 5y ago
Perhaps natural resources? Usually it's always more or less that, when anything gets attacked. Or geostrategic position.
t89893789 5y ago
I can't think the Russian people are pleased to see war again so close to home. If there were free elections there now I reckon Putin would be hammered. As Karl Popper and other people have said, free elections are the best mechanism for preventing governments from making stupid mistakes. The fear of being removed from power makes them much more cautious in their actions. The best illustration of this in action can be seen by comparing what happened to Churchill and Stalin at the end of WW2. Churchill made some stupid statements about the Labour party being like the Gestapo and he got crushed in the 1945 election. When Churchill got back into power a few years later he did not undo the Labour reforms. Stalin, who had killed millions of his own people in the 1930's and dithered like a frightened child at the Nazi invasion in 1941, stayed in power to kill more of his own people until his death in 1953. The Russian people deserve better.
ajsnigrutin 5y ago
Technically, cuba working with the soviets caused USA to propose a LOT of sanctions against them (that are still there), and also planed a false-flag attack on US soil to get a 'reason' to attack cuba - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Northwoods https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Northwoods ..so ukraine joining nato is not that much different. What putin is doing now is something along the Kosovo playbook... someone has interest in some area somewhere (us in kosovo, putin in donbas/lugansk), they help the separatists, the main country fights back, and then they start war (bombing in case of yugoslavia, this now in case of ukraine), to get what they want. Putin also mentioned weapons of mass destruction in ukraine ("the iraq playbook" USA used), but the theory didn't get a lot of traction. Also, it's just the beginning of the war, so you can expect the propaganda machines to work 24/7 on both sides, so what the truth is, will probably never be know and will be rewritten by the winners and CNN.
- rosndo 5y ago
  > .so ukraine joining nato is not that much different Yeah it is, the Baltics are already in NATO. Ukraine joining would not significantly change the balance of power in the region. Cuba on the other hand was far more significant because the Soviet Union did not otherwise have assets so close to the US. Also the US never invaded Cuba in the way Russia invaded Ukraine. Their actions were more comparable to Russian support of DPR and LPR.
  - ajsnigrutin 5y ago
    But russia has to stop nato somewhere... it was too weak to do it with the baltics, and it's doing that now. USA definitely had the plan for a war with cuba, but it luckily didn't happen. They did start many other wars in the meantime, mostly on the other side of the world.
    - rosndo 5y ago
      Nato is a defensive alliance, why exactly does Russia need to stop it? NATO would never attack Russia, a nuclear power capable of ending the world as we know it. > USA definitely had the plan for a war with cuba, but it luckily didn't happen This is a really weird way to write “USA decided not to fight a war with Cuba”, everybody makes all kinds of plans.
skissane 5y ago
> But if that's just a pretext, what's the actual reason? I haven't seen a good answer yet. Because in Putin's mind, "Soviet" and "Russian" are synonyms. In other words, the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991 was to him the breakup of Russia, and as a Russian nationalist he sees that as a great tragedy. He blames it on the Communists for adopting a constitutional structure which contained within it the seeds of separatism; the Communists only ever meant it as lip-service, and as long as they remained in control that was all it was, but as they lost control those seeds began to sprout and 1991 was the result. To him, Lithuanians, Ukrainians, Georgians, Armenians, etc, are not neighbouring foreign nationalities, they are Russians, they are traditional ethnic minorities of the Russian nationality, just as he views Chechens, Tatars, Tuvans, etc, as being. He wants to "Make Russia Great Again" by reversing the breakup of 1991, or getting as close to that goal as he possibly can. And annexing large parts of Ukraine and installing one or more puppet governments in the rest is, in his mind, an important step towards that ultimate goal.
- nl 5y ago
  I think this is basically right. He believes in the Russian Empire. You can hear threads if this in the speeches he gives to Russian audiences where he argues that Ukraine isn't a real country.
- KineticLensman 5y ago
  > Because in Putin's mind, "Soviet" and "Russian" are synonyms. He's actually going further back than that, to the various Rus empires that predated the modern countries of Russia, Ukraine, etc.
Applejinx 5y ago
This may BE the information you were missing. To some extent I think the extensive propaganda about numerous political/celebrity figures being great and powerful and capable has been a sham from the beginning. I would call the war on Ukraine 'put up or shut up' time, where reality tests the value of the claims that have been made for many, many years. I think we've all been told a lot of lies for a long time. History's monsters so often seem to be dumb, deeply fallible, weak humans in the wrong place at the wrong time, doubling down on wrong decisions. I've seen people being unsettled and afraid and going 'but what if it's a feint and then the REAL Russian Army comes to obliterate everything', in the face of the shitshow we're seeing. Not an accident: the effort that went into putting forth that narrative has been extensive. But once tested, we see where reality lies.
- helloworld11 5y ago
  Many leaders who had the wherewithal to establish themselves in power can then coast on the inertial force of their authority and reputation for years or even decades in a way that makes them continue looking capable. The frequent reality however is that coming to power politically isn't necessarily the same as keeping it or making sound decisions in many other area (such as military strategy). Thus, an established dictator can turn into a complete bumbler, but because of earlier successes in his domestic political arena, people keep thinking he has some sort of clever plan up his sleeve in any other scenario though it might not at all be the case. Hitler was an example of this. He cleverly came to power, astutely conserved himself in power for years, but then badly fucked up almost from the beginning once he embarked on major military adventures. However, many people kept believing him even militarily clever because of previous political cleverness. I believe something similar is the case with Putin (This is not a comparison of Putin with Hitler in moral terms, just an example)
eternalban 5y ago
I commented on this a while back (before things got kinetic) regarding the puzzling framing [by Western leaders and media] of the late December treaty proposals (to US and NATO respectively) published in English by Kremlin. At the time, I assumed the media was directed to focus on Ukraine to allow so-called off-ramps to Putin (so he can save face). You can trivially find these treaties on the net if you search for them. Today Lavrov again repeated the RF's demands for removal of US's nuclear weapons from Europe. (And yes, I too believe we are not privy to what has transpired in the past few months, if not past year between the various powers. And there is no way short of collective madness in Russian leadership that this "operation" will be limited to Ukraine.)

phatfish 5y ago

The reason? Same as most other people with power, more power. It's just dictators like Putin can act on the impulses of their ego and ignore everyone else. The power gained in this case is attempting to rebuild the Russian empire by "liberating" areas that have since become independent countries and want nothing to do with the Russian rule.

tguvot 5y ago

Google translate this: https://web.archive.org/web/20220226224717/https://ria.ru/20220226/rossiya-1775162336.html https://web.archive.org/web/20220226224717/https://ria.ru/20... It was auto published on 26 on ria and bunch of other sites and than purged. It explains everything

CamperBob2 5y ago
"Can't translate this." - typically useful error message from Google.
- tguvot 5y ago
  Just copy/paste text. But overall idea .. "russia is restoring russian world by combining together russian people: greatrussian (russians), small russians (ukranians) and whiterussians... putin took upon himself historic mission of finally solving ukranian question... .. with each year it would have been harder and harder to bring ukraine back to russia... it doesn't means that ukraine as state dissappear but it recharted, restructured and returned to be part of the russian world... etc.. etc.. etc.. see the idea ?
  - CamperBob2 5y ago
    Yes; that sounds similar in some ways to Fiona Hill's take on it at https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-iii-already-there-00012340 https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/28/world-war-... .
    - tguvot 5y ago
      well... reading article... she is right on spot. kinda same conclusions as I had a few days ago that made me wish to move away of population centers. kinda brings up a phrase that was thrown by some russian official or tv person a few years ago: "what's the need in the world that doesn't have russia in it"
KptMarchewa 5y ago
It's just a piece of propaganda, and how they were going to explain (in their thoughts) fast, painless war. It does not represent real thoughts of those in power.
- tguvot 5y ago
  you are kind of wrong. putin been obsessed for years with loss of russian empire/ussr. after 2014 he started to claim that ukraine is not legitimate state. it's common opinion in russia that ukranians are not really nation, but just "variety" of russians and they do not deserve to have their own state. and that ukraine it's west(anglo-saxon) project in order to destroy russia one extra point: this book is written by somebody who is considered to be putin's guru. wiki article contains summary of the book. go through it and for every bullet point that you find something corresponding in today's reality, get yourself a candy :) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics i also found today's interview with author of this book. interview pretty much exactly echoes sentiments of the article (google translate is your friend). https://bloknot-voronezh.ru/news/nikakogo-yanukovicha-2-0-pozvolit-bolshe-ne-mozhem https://bloknot-voronezh.ru/news/nikakogo-yanukovicha-2-0-po... it's not propoganda. it's just batshit crazy people who are obsessed with rebuilding russian empire. is it so hard to believe when we have qanon on display for past few years ?

_trampeltier 5y ago

I also I feel like I miss something there. Maybe was tricked into war by .. I don't know .. and the war is just collateral demage. Maybe his information had been so wrong because he and all people around him lives in a bubble.

vardump 5y ago

Perhaps natural resources? Usually it's always more or less that, when anything gets attacked. Or geostrategic position.

t89893789 5y ago

I can't think the Russian people are pleased to see war again so close to home. If there were free elections there now I reckon Putin would be hammered. As Karl Popper and other people have said, free elections are the best mechanism for preventing governments from making stupid mistakes. The fear of being removed from power makes them much more cautious in their actions. The best illustration of this in action can be seen by comparing what happened to Churchill and Stalin at the end of WW2. Churchill made some stupid statements about the Labour party being like the Gestapo and he got crushed in the 1945 election. When Churchill got back into power a few years later he did not undo the Labour reforms. Stalin, who had killed millions of his own people in the 1930's and dithered like a frightened child at the Nazi invasion in 1941, stayed in power to kill more of his own people until his death in 1953. The Russian people deserve better.

ajsnigrutin 5y ago

Technically, cuba working with the soviets caused USA to propose a LOT of sanctions against them (that are still there), and also planed a false-flag attack on US soil to get a 'reason' to attack cuba - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Northwoods https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Northwoods ..so ukraine joining nato is not that much different. What putin is doing now is something along the Kosovo playbook... someone has interest in some area somewhere (us in kosovo, putin in donbas/lugansk), they help the separatists, the main country fights back, and then they start war (bombing in case of yugoslavia, this now in case of ukraine), to get what they want. Putin also mentioned weapons of mass destruction in ukraine ("the iraq playbook" USA used), but the theory didn't get a lot of traction. Also, it's just the beginning of the war, so you can expect the propaganda machines to work 24/7 on both sides, so what the truth is, will probably never be know and will be rewritten by the winners and CNN.

rosndo 5y ago
> .so ukraine joining nato is not that much different Yeah it is, the Baltics are already in NATO. Ukraine joining would not significantly change the balance of power in the region. Cuba on the other hand was far more significant because the Soviet Union did not otherwise have assets so close to the US. Also the US never invaded Cuba in the way Russia invaded Ukraine. Their actions were more comparable to Russian support of DPR and LPR.
- ajsnigrutin 5y ago
  But russia has to stop nato somewhere... it was too weak to do it with the baltics, and it's doing that now. USA definitely had the plan for a war with cuba, but it luckily didn't happen. They did start many other wars in the meantime, mostly on the other side of the world.
  - rosndo 5y ago
    Nato is a defensive alliance, why exactly does Russia need to stop it? NATO would never attack Russia, a nuclear power capable of ending the world as we know it. > USA definitely had the plan for a war with cuba, but it luckily didn't happen This is a really weird way to write “USA decided not to fight a war with Cuba”, everybody makes all kinds of plans.

skissane 5y ago

> But if that's just a pretext, what's the actual reason? I haven't seen a good answer yet. Because in Putin's mind, "Soviet" and "Russian" are synonyms. In other words, the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991 was to him the breakup of Russia, and as a Russian nationalist he sees that as a great tragedy. He blames it on the Communists for adopting a constitutional structure which contained within it the seeds of separatism; the Communists only ever meant it as lip-service, and as long as they remained in control that was all it was, but as they lost control those seeds began to sprout and 1991 was the result. To him, Lithuanians, Ukrainians, Georgians, Armenians, etc, are not neighbouring foreign nationalities, they are Russians, they are traditional ethnic minorities of the Russian nationality, just as he views Chechens, Tatars, Tuvans, etc, as being. He wants to "Make Russia Great Again" by reversing the breakup of 1991, or getting as close to that goal as he possibly can. And annexing large parts of Ukraine and installing one or more puppet governments in the rest is, in his mind, an important step towards that ultimate goal.

nl 5y ago
I think this is basically right. He believes in the Russian Empire. You can hear threads if this in the speeches he gives to Russian audiences where he argues that Ukraine isn't a real country.
KineticLensman 5y ago
> Because in Putin's mind, "Soviet" and "Russian" are synonyms. He's actually going further back than that, to the various Rus empires that predated the modern countries of Russia, Ukraine, etc.

Applejinx 5y ago

This may BE the information you were missing. To some extent I think the extensive propaganda about numerous political/celebrity figures being great and powerful and capable has been a sham from the beginning. I would call the war on Ukraine 'put up or shut up' time, where reality tests the value of the claims that have been made for many, many years. I think we've all been told a lot of lies for a long time. History's monsters so often seem to be dumb, deeply fallible, weak humans in the wrong place at the wrong time, doubling down on wrong decisions. I've seen people being unsettled and afraid and going 'but what if it's a feint and then the REAL Russian Army comes to obliterate everything', in the face of the shitshow we're seeing. Not an accident: the effort that went into putting forth that narrative has been extensive. But once tested, we see where reality lies.

helloworld11 5y ago
Many leaders who had the wherewithal to establish themselves in power can then coast on the inertial force of their authority and reputation for years or even decades in a way that makes them continue looking capable. The frequent reality however is that coming to power politically isn't necessarily the same as keeping it or making sound decisions in many other area (such as military strategy). Thus, an established dictator can turn into a complete bumbler, but because of earlier successes in his domestic political arena, people keep thinking he has some sort of clever plan up his sleeve in any other scenario though it might not at all be the case. Hitler was an example of this. He cleverly came to power, astutely conserved himself in power for years, but then badly fucked up almost from the beginning once he embarked on major military adventures. However, many people kept believing him even militarily clever because of previous political cleverness. I believe something similar is the case with Putin (This is not a comparison of Putin with Hitler in moral terms, just an example)

eternalban 5y ago

I commented on this a while back (before things got kinetic) regarding the puzzling framing [by Western leaders and media] of the late December treaty proposals (to US and NATO respectively) published in English by Kremlin. At the time, I assumed the media was directed to focus on Ukraine to allow so-called off-ramps to Putin (so he can save face). You can trivially find these treaties on the net if you search for them. Today Lavrov again repeated the RF's demands for removal of US's nuclear weapons from Europe. (And yes, I too believe we are not privy to what has transpired in the past few months, if not past year between the various powers. And there is no way short of collective madness in Russian leadership that this "operation" will be limited to Ukraine.)