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This is absolutely the lens we need to view the Ukranian crisis through. It's actually quite surprising that Europe has acted so strongly and unanimously in the

This is absolutely the lens we need to view the Ukranian crisis through. It's actually quite surprising that Europe has acted so strongly and unanimously in their condemnation of Russia given that they really need Russian gas to heat their homes. Sure, they haven't literally turned off the gas because they can't, but they've done everything but. It's up to Russia at this point but they absolutely can turn off that gas, and it has been suggested that they were limiting exports for the last 6 months to make sure Europe didn't have any stockpiles to weather an event like this. I think recent events send a message to China that Western countries are perfectly willing to act against their own interests purely to punish a country that steps out of line. The whole of western Europe will suffer to punish Russia in this conflict, but the conflict has taken a situation where countries were semi-committed and made them fully committed. Germany's stance now, would've been unthinkable 1 month ago. It highlights how easy it is to push countries away.

GoToRO 5y ago
There are two pipes: one bings gas from Russia and the other cash from Europe. You turn the first one off, the second one is off as well.
- TrainedMonkey 5y ago
  There is a third pipe which is ability of Russia to use foreign currency to buy stuff. That is the pipe that got turned off, it is not clear if/why Russia would continue to send gas. On one hand they could stop sending gas, on the other hand what else would they do with that gas? I am hoping that they do not have significant storage or transportation to Asia infrastructure.
  - SR2Z 5y ago
    Presumably oligarchs and Putin think that there's a way for them to evade sanctions.
  - spartanatreyu 5y ago
    Putin is definitely going to try and launder his monetary reserves through China to access the greater world.
    - aaaaaaaaata 5y ago
      So Bitcoin?
  - octoberfranklin 5y ago
    That third pipe has a large arterial which detours through China before reaching the West.
    - bilbo0s 5y ago
      You assume that it would reach the West. Maybe China just takes the Russian gas and pays them in Yuan. I have a hard time believing that China will forward energy resources to anyone else when they, themselves could be using said resources. But I could be wrong. Maybe they're big hearted like that.
- elil17 5y ago
  Russia has hoarded cash, Europe has not hoarded gas. There’s the issue.
  - indemnity 5y ago
    Cash is liquid, 80% of Russian reserves are not any more, after yesterday.
  - Ajef 5y ago
    There are certain gas reserves... also winter is just about over. So demand will probably be less.
  - tonyedgecombe 5y ago
    Russia's money is gone: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-28/russia-s-money-is-gone https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-28/russia...
- sbierwagen 5y ago
  All the bank sanctions have had carveouts for fossil fuels.
rnk 5y ago
We need to protect Taiwan because they are a democracy. The fact that the most important IC manufacturer is there is important but less important than the humans who live in Taiwan. I strongly believe the US plan for "strategic ambiguity" w/r/t Taiwan, which is basically lack of clarity over will the us go to war to help protect Taiwan from China - is stupid. China will attack sooner or later. Democratic countries need to bond together so the current two powerful authoritarian dystopian dictatorships as well as any future ones are not able to destroy them. You don't have a right to destroy my country (looking at China and Russia) because you don't like the fact that we are democratic.
- iancmceachern 5y ago
  Exactly, insert something about tyrany and good people doing nothing enabling it.
  - Beltalowda 5y ago
    These situations are too complex to just view them as "democracy = good, tyranny = bad". I firmly believe this is a true statement, but the unchangeable fact of the matter is that attempting to resolve tyranny can lead to more harm than good. There's a reason the cold war was a, well, "cold" war; the consequences of resolving it would have caused far greater harm. This is also the reason NATO is careful to avoid too much direct involvement right now. So in short, also insert something about the road to hell being paved with good intentions.
    - iancmceachern 5y ago
      Well said.
    - softfalcon 5y ago
      Mi sasa! Spoken like a true belta pampa who is wise and seen many rotations. Nothing in life is ever simple.
- simonh 5y ago
  I agree, but several presidents have given clear and unambiguous statements that the US would defend Taiwan. Both Biden and G W Bush did this. In the light of the Ukraine situation strategic ambiguity is looking less and less attractive. A bit more clarity and commitment might have avoided this whole situation. https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/why-strategic-ambiguity-trumps-strategic-clarity-taiwan https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentar...
spaetzleesser 5y ago
“ Western countries are perfectly willing to act against their own interests purely to punish a country that steps out of line.” Going after China would be magnitudes more painful than going after Russia. It would also hurt the US whereas Russia is mainly causing problems for Europe.
- jimbob45 5y ago
  ??? Russia is actively threatening nuclear war. That’s a threat to everyone, not just Europe.
  - jpgvm 5y ago
    He is talking about the sanctions. Less than <1% of revenue of SP500 is derived from Russia so US isn't directly affected by any of the sanctions in any way. They are indirectly affected by the impact on the price of commodities (which also affects China more than the US) so overall this whole sanctions situation is mostly fine for the USA. With the caveat that China will export all that extra inflation to them which will exacerbate the domestic problems Biden faces. If however China was to invade Taiwan and US/EU were forced to impose sanctions on them then you can basically expect a financial nuclear winter, everyone will be in pain, US most of all. China actually is a highly self-sufficient economy outside of energy markets (which it could adapt to especially if Russia remains an ally) while the US is heavily import dependent from China (hence the whole trade imbalance/surplus that Trump was bitching about). TLDR: No one currently cares about Russia sanctions except Europe. The world can't afford Chinese sanctions.
    - philliphaydon 5y ago
      > China actually is a highly self-sufficient economy outside of energy markets China depends a lot on importing food, especially meat. The two most essential things they need. Food and Energy. And they currently struggle with both.
      - jpgvm 5y ago
dirtyid 5y ago
Its day 5, there's no reason to assume current response are sustainable longterm gambles.
bick_nyers 5y ago
I think what Europe actually communicated to China is that they will cut off everything except for what they need (gas). In the case of China, the US and EU need basically everything.
squarefoot 5y ago
> I think recent events send a message to China that Western countries are perfectly willing to act against their own interests purely to punish a country that steps out of line. That's the point. The sanctions EU is imposing on Russia are getting very serious, so even without any military threat involved, China would think twice before invading Taiwan. Also I believe some countries already working on alternatives, which of course is a very long and costly process, but better late than never.

GoToRO 5y ago

There are two pipes: one bings gas from Russia and the other cash from Europe. You turn the first one off, the second one is off as well.

TrainedMonkey 5y ago
There is a third pipe which is ability of Russia to use foreign currency to buy stuff. That is the pipe that got turned off, it is not clear if/why Russia would continue to send gas. On one hand they could stop sending gas, on the other hand what else would they do with that gas? I am hoping that they do not have significant storage or transportation to Asia infrastructure.
- SR2Z 5y ago
  Presumably oligarchs and Putin think that there's a way for them to evade sanctions.
- spartanatreyu 5y ago
  Putin is definitely going to try and launder his monetary reserves through China to access the greater world.
  - aaaaaaaaata 5y ago
    So Bitcoin?
- octoberfranklin 5y ago
  That third pipe has a large arterial which detours through China before reaching the West.
  - bilbo0s 5y ago
    You assume that it would reach the West. Maybe China just takes the Russian gas and pays them in Yuan. I have a hard time believing that China will forward energy resources to anyone else when they, themselves could be using said resources. But I could be wrong. Maybe they're big hearted like that.
elil17 5y ago
Russia has hoarded cash, Europe has not hoarded gas. There’s the issue.
- indemnity 5y ago
  Cash is liquid, 80% of Russian reserves are not any more, after yesterday.
- Ajef 5y ago
  There are certain gas reserves... also winter is just about over. So demand will probably be less.
- tonyedgecombe 5y ago
  Russia's money is gone: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-28/russia-s-money-is-gone https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-28/russia...
sbierwagen 5y ago
All the bank sanctions have had carveouts for fossil fuels.

rnk 5y ago

We need to protect Taiwan because they are a democracy. The fact that the most important IC manufacturer is there is important but less important than the humans who live in Taiwan. I strongly believe the US plan for "strategic ambiguity" w/r/t Taiwan, which is basically lack of clarity over will the us go to war to help protect Taiwan from China - is stupid. China will attack sooner or later. Democratic countries need to bond together so the current two powerful authoritarian dystopian dictatorships as well as any future ones are not able to destroy them. You don't have a right to destroy my country (looking at China and Russia) because you don't like the fact that we are democratic.

iancmceachern 5y ago
Exactly, insert something about tyrany and good people doing nothing enabling it.
- Beltalowda 5y ago
  These situations are too complex to just view them as "democracy = good, tyranny = bad". I firmly believe this is a true statement, but the unchangeable fact of the matter is that attempting to resolve tyranny can lead to more harm than good. There's a reason the cold war was a, well, "cold" war; the consequences of resolving it would have caused far greater harm. This is also the reason NATO is careful to avoid too much direct involvement right now. So in short, also insert something about the road to hell being paved with good intentions.
  - iancmceachern 5y ago
    Well said.
  - softfalcon 5y ago
    Mi sasa! Spoken like a true belta pampa who is wise and seen many rotations. Nothing in life is ever simple.
simonh 5y ago
I agree, but several presidents have given clear and unambiguous statements that the US would defend Taiwan. Both Biden and G W Bush did this. In the light of the Ukraine situation strategic ambiguity is looking less and less attractive. A bit more clarity and commitment might have avoided this whole situation. https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/why-strategic-ambiguity-trumps-strategic-clarity-taiwan https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentar...

spaetzleesser 5y ago

“ Western countries are perfectly willing to act against their own interests purely to punish a country that steps out of line.” Going after China would be magnitudes more painful than going after Russia. It would also hurt the US whereas Russia is mainly causing problems for Europe.

jimbob45 5y ago
??? Russia is actively threatening nuclear war. That’s a threat to everyone, not just Europe.
- jpgvm 5y ago
  He is talking about the sanctions. Less than <1% of revenue of SP500 is derived from Russia so US isn't directly affected by any of the sanctions in any way. They are indirectly affected by the impact on the price of commodities (which also affects China more than the US) so overall this whole sanctions situation is mostly fine for the USA. With the caveat that China will export all that extra inflation to them which will exacerbate the domestic problems Biden faces. If however China was to invade Taiwan and US/EU were forced to impose sanctions on them then you can basically expect a financial nuclear winter, everyone will be in pain, US most of all. China actually is a highly self-sufficient economy outside of energy markets (which it could adapt to especially if Russia remains an ally) while the US is heavily import dependent from China (hence the whole trade imbalance/surplus that Trump was bitching about). TLDR: No one currently cares about Russia sanctions except Europe. The world can't afford Chinese sanctions.
  - philliphaydon 5y ago
    > China actually is a highly self-sufficient economy outside of energy markets China depends a lot on importing food, especially meat. The two most essential things they need. Food and Energy. And they currently struggle with both.
    - jpgvm 5y ago

dirtyid 5y ago

Its day 5, there's no reason to assume current response are sustainable longterm gambles.

bick_nyers 5y ago

I think what Europe actually communicated to China is that they will cut off everything except for what they need (gas). In the case of China, the US and EU need basically everything.

squarefoot 5y ago

> I think recent events send a message to China that Western countries are perfectly willing to act against their own interests purely to punish a country that steps out of line. That's the point. The sanctions EU is imposing on Russia are getting very serious, so even without any military threat involved, China would think twice before invading Taiwan. Also I believe some countries already working on alternatives, which of course is a very long and costly process, but better late than never.