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If we manage to get through this chip shortage and then China decides to invade Taiwan and we lose TSMC, I'm gonna fucking lose it. Everything feels so fragile

• winstongator 5y ago
  I wonder if TSMC has a self-destruct button. I do not think they want CCP to take over those fabs. Agree, this is a worst case scenario, and we need to get at least one TSMC fab in the US.
  • Traster 5y ago
    I imagine the conversation goes like this "Sorry, Mr Xi Jinping, your bombs caused seismic activity that destroyed the calibration of our machines and of the the 5,000 highly trained engineers we employ, only 2 turned up today and I'm not sure how much work we can expect from Raffles the team mascot.
  • j_walter 5y ago
    There are a few key points in the process that you could easily disrupt and pretty much cause a scorched earth type of response. There are a few ways to do it as well...like export all of the photo masks to the US or Europe. Those fabs can't produce anything without them...and all of the ones for their Taiwan advanced fabs could probably all be loaded into a dozen or less shipping containers. Destroying them is another way to go about it if you can't get them out of the country safely.
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  • nomel 5y ago
    > I do not think they want CCP to take over those fabs. This makes the very incorrect assumption that you could just swap out the TSMC staff and things would continue working. Chip fabrication isn't just about pushing a button to turn on a machine. It requires the massive amounts of esoteric knowledge of all the processes, machines, chip design rules, everything.
    • Sateeshm 5y ago
      I wonder if China already put a few Gales under the Walter Whites of TSMC
      • Bayart 5y ago
        SMIC has been poaching engineers from TSMC for a long time.
  • indemnity 5y ago
    Honest question. Why the assumption that Taiwan would choose death rather than give up their fabs to the Chinese? I have seen this implicit assumption here a lot, but I just don’t get it. Why would they smash hundreds of billions of dollars of investment for freedom from the Chinese yoke, if they have to choose between the fabs or lots of people dying?
    • thereisnospork 5y ago
      >Why would they smash hundreds of billions of dollars of investment for freedom from the Chinese yoke, if they have to choose between the fabs or lots of people dying? MAD, or at least MAW (mutually assured wounding). Taiwan wants China to know that a hostile takeover will cost China TSMC[0] thereby disincentivizing China from taking over Taiwan. To say 'we value our people over our fabs, please show mercy' just makes them all the more likely to be taken over. [0]including associated international outrage over losing their chip supply.
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    • another_story 5y ago
      Think about the reaction of Hong Kong to China, now add a military on the Hong Kong side. Taiwan would absolutely defend itself.
    • dillondoyle 5y ago
      The same 10s of thousands of Ukrainians are taking up arms: to protect their country and fight for a more free future. Plus the premise I think is weird. If China is going for TSMC that in itself is already full blown war.
    • michaelt 5y ago
      > Why would they smash hundreds of billions of dollars of investment Because that's what war is? Do you imagine America would let itself get invaded, because their trillion-dollar jet fighter program is too expensive to let people shoot at them?
  • typ 5y ago
    You don't really need it. The semiconductor industry relies on equipment and materials from the global supply chain, in particular, the suppliers from Europe, Japan and the US. It's a team game. If the democratic world stopped doing business with TSMC (i.e., a sanction), it would have barely any chance to survive, let alone maintaining the position as an industry leader.
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  • seanmcdirmid 5y ago
    They rely on a lot of equipment and materials from the west, and there are many production secrets that are kept under lock and key in the states. So they couldn’t operate for very long without fab equipment from the USA and Germany (which is intentional). It’s like Iran’s F14s, hard to keep going without spare parts.
  • eric-hu 5y ago
    I've wondered this as well -- and I wouldn't limit it to TSMC leadership. It could be a Taiwanese program or even a CIA one. For the other replies to you saying that they can't just use the machines, China has been and likely still is trying to poach semiconductor expertise from Taiwan. One thing they lack is EUV lithography machines. I'm not sure if they ever got to purchase any, but the US government has blocked ASML from selling any to China.
  • YetAnotherNick 5y ago
    Taiwan could demolish the buildings using house demolition grade TNT. It's harder to destroy the knowledge though.
• Traster 5y ago
  This is absolutely the lens we need to view the Ukranian crisis through. It's actually quite surprising that Europe has acted so strongly and unanimously in their condemnation of Russia given that they really need Russian gas to heat their homes. Sure, they haven't literally turned off the gas because they can't, but they've done everything but. It's up to Russia at this point but they absolutely can turn off that gas, and it has been suggested that they were limiting exports for the last 6 months to make sure Europe didn't have any stockpiles to weather an event like this. I think recent events send a message to China that Western countries are perfectly willing to act against their own interests purely to punish a country that steps out of line. The whole of western Europe will suffer to punish Russia in this conflict, but the conflict has taken a situation where countries were semi-committed and made them fully committed. Germany's stance now, would've been unthinkable 1 month ago. It highlights how easy it is to push countries away.
  • GoToRO 5y ago
    There are two pipes: one bings gas from Russia and the other cash from Europe. You turn the first one off, the second one is off as well.
    • TrainedMonkey 5y ago
      There is a third pipe which is ability of Russia to use foreign currency to buy stuff. That is the pipe that got turned off, it is not clear if/why Russia would continue to send gas. On one hand they could stop sending gas, on the other hand what else would they do with that gas? I am hoping that they do not have significant storage or transportation to Asia infrastructure.
      • SR2Z 5y ago
        Presumably oligarchs and Putin think that there's a way for them to evade sanctions.
      • spartanatreyu 5y ago
        Putin is definitely going to try and launder his monetary reserves through China to access the greater world.
• jotm 5y ago
  Tell me about it. I have invested in a new business (anyone want a fully custom PC case? heh), and now I have to stock up on food and seriously consider how to live with long mass blackouts, as well as prepare for mobilization to fight Russian invaders if they succeed in Ukraine. Eh, I'm already suicidal, so that would be a better way to go, I guess.
  • adflux 5y ago
    Hey man, if you're really suicidal, please get help. Aside from that I can personally recommend exercise, d3, sunlight and a regular bed time. Know that depression makes everything suck, you wont enjoy things you used to. Even if your life was great you wouldnt enjoy it. But you will again once you get over the chemical imbalances in your brain. I'm rooting for you.
• spaetzleesser 5y ago
  China is certainly watching very closely the Ukraine situation and will factor it into a attack/not attack decision.
• bick_nyers 5y ago
  I'm not so sure that they will do an invasion. A trade blockade seems likely to me.
• shotputin 5y ago
• ksec 5y ago
  Thanks to Russia what used to be told as irrational, unimaginable or paranoid thoughts are now a real possibility. Sometimes it takes a real shock for people to learn what Andrew Grove has told us repeatedly and yet most if not all still ignores it. I guess that has something to do with his experience having escaped from Communist-controlled Hungary at the age of 20. Only the Paranoid Survive
• ineedasername 5y ago
  Oh, I think part of this rapid coming together of companies and governments to imposes sanctions on Russia is as much about China -> Taiwan as it is about Russia -> Ukraine. There are a variety of parallels in histories here. None of them exact except the clear desire subsume them. And while nothing about these situations is simple, part of the message were seeing may be aimed at China, as if to say "this is what will happen to you too". That might not seem like a lot, but China's stability and economy as a whole is much more reliant on global commerce that Russia. European countries know that a huge fraction of their energy comes from Russian sources, and Russia can turn that off, but the implied message right now is "we are willing to deal with those consequences" if/when Russia goes down that path. (Though economically, on top of the other sanctions, that would hurt them a lot too) So part of the implied message to China is also that of, "Yes we know we rely on you for much, but we relied on Russia for a piece of basic, essential, fundamental infrastructure and were willing to let it go.".
  • jimmygrapes 5y ago
    I agree with everything you said, except for that last line. I think we (USA and general "western" identity) claim to be willing to let it happen, but only in words. I don't think that stance will last. Time will tell, I guess.
• hef19898 5y ago
  China being China, and thus economically more savvy then Russia, I guess the will keep Taiwan's industry running under new management. Assuming Taiwan isn't scuttling before the new management arrives. But then I also thought Putin would be smarter than starting a war everybody saw coming miles away and risk forging the west together in a way I haven't seen since the cold war. There seems to be a reason why I'm not earning my living with political or strategic analysis.
• DrBazza 5y ago
  It turns out, unless this has been debunked, that Ukraine supplies neon for lasers for... chip production. So perhaps the TSMC chief is a bit premature anyway, regardless of China. Of course there's a lead time in production. https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/ukraine-war-flashes-neon-warning-lights-chips-2022-02-24/ https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/ukraine-war-flashes-ne...
• torginus 5y ago
  I wonder why nobody is talking about the possibility of Taiwan joining China willingly - not tomorrow of course, but let's say a decade from now. People are ignoring the fact that they are ethnically Chinese - both in the ancestral sense, and that a lot of Taiwanese professionals are PrC born educated and raised. The rise of the Chinese economy means that I think there exist a set of concessions - both economic and governmental - that the CCP could make towards Taiwan which would win them over. I'm not an analyst or anything, but look where China was a decade or two ago - it's difficult to extrapolate where they'll be a decade or two in the future.
  • tlamponi 5y ago
    It could be a possibility, i.e., not completely out of the possible. But, with Xi taking steps in a more authoritarian direction not that long ago, and the Hong Kong situation showing that they have no interest in autonomous regions, I fail to see how the PrC's gov would be willing to provide the autonomy framework that Taiwan RoC, would require, to continue prospering in the same way as they do now.