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Yeah. I think the swiftness, severity, and unity of the response from the EU and US really caught them and, really, a lot of observers by surprise. China's tepi
by hangonhn 5y ago
Yeah. I think the swiftness, severity, and unity of the response from the EU and US really caught them and, really, a lot of observers by surprise. China's tepid "abstain" during the Security Council vote tells you a lot about how China feels about this war and that China's ambassador to Ukraine was not evacuated when war broke out hints at China thinking war wouldn't break out. It's tragic what's happening in Ukraine but I do hope various other countries will also learn from this and refrain from using violence as a means of achieving their goals.
- rich_sasha 5y agoI wonder to what extent China is actually unhappy with the war, and to what it feels it cannot publicly support it. I’m not saying China is a devious country who loves shelling civilians, just that it’s hard to establish their attitude given the circumstances.
- KptMarchewa 5y agoA large part of Russian propaganda around the outbreak of the war was about supporting their puppet separatist states. China, for obvious reason, can't be happy about it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_the_Donetsk_People%27s_Republic_and_the_Luhansk_People%27s_Republic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_t...
- ajross 5y agoChina would benefit, just like Russia would, from division in the west and a general sense that "world powers can seize territory of similar ethnic groups" (c.f. Taiwan). The invasion has had the opposite effect. This is a disaster for the PRC too. It's seeming increasingly possible that Putin's government may not even survive and the consolation prize of getting a nuclear power as a Chinese sattelite state may even evaporate.
- tomatotomato37 5y agoChina is seeing what was communicated as a quick invasion of a city 60 miles from a land border turn into a slaughter. I bet they are now re-evaluating their own chances against the mountainous island littered with hidden bunkers and airstrips
- csense 5y agoChina presumably really wishes Russia had set a wargoal of annexing Donbas / Crimea / all of Ukraine to be part of Russia. Putin instead recognizing the breakaway regions as independent sets a bad precedent from China's point of view. They're presumably happy about a member of the dictators' club sticking one in the eye of a free country, a (half-)Asian country sticking one in the eye of US hegemony, and the business opportunity to buy stuff at fire sale prices because it's sanctioned everywhere else. They're probably less happy about how long it's taking -- the Chinese want stability and moneymaking opportunities, war and high oil prices are bad for business. They're probably also been caught flat-footed by how the US / EU seems to be unifying on this issue, they may feel forced to choose sides. China really wants to maintain a balance of power where the US isn't dominant, but they need the US and EU as trading partners more than they need Russia.
- chrononaut 5y agoI think: > Putin instead recognizing the breakaway regions as independent sets a bad precedent from China's point of view. and: > China presumably really wishes Russia had set a wargoal of annexing Donbas / Crimea / all of Ukraine to be part of Russia. are just part of the same process: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Declaration_of_Independence_of_the_Republic_of_Crimea https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Declaration_of_Independence_of... > Russia recognised the Republic of Crimea's declaration of independence[8][9] and agreed to incorporate the Republic into the Russian Federation following a referendum. Agnostic to the outcome of the conflict, they were / are probably just planning on the same approach.
- ModernMech 5y ago> China presumably really wishes Russia had set a wargoal of annexing Donbas / Crimea / all of Ukraine to be part of Russia. You can't set that wargoal anymore without proclaiming to the world that you intend to be and are proudly taking the mantle of "warcriminal". The world decided after WWII that a nation doesn't just have the right to do this anymore. Invading a sovereign country to make it your own against its will is a warcrime. Of course just as prohibition didn't stop people from drinking, this idea on the bounds of acceptable national behavior does not dampen imperial tendencies, so if you want to invade another country you need a pretext first. It's like that South Park episode, where Stan's Uncle and Ned go hunting for bears, and scream that it's attacking them before they shoot it, when in fact it was just sitting there peacefully. If Russia is successful in taking Ukraine, what will follow is a propaganda campaign aimed at "proving" everything Putin said about his rationale for the invasion was true. You'll have public executions of Ukrainians "admitting" to all the crimes he says they perpetrated, and he will proclaim loudly to the world that he prevented genocide and everyone should thank him for invading Ukraine. And guess what, his allies will buy it. You and I will all see through it, and they will too but it will help them sleep at night, because not all of them are as psychopathic as Putin. Elites still need to mingle in polite company after all. It will give them something to tell their children and teach them in school. It will be something for the grieving mothers who lost their sons in the war will have a story about how their sons died for a cause, rather than the impulses driven by an insane dictator's ego. Anyway, that story isn't as good if you went in without a pretext. Honestly though Putin got impatient and his pretext was too thin. He didn't have a 9/11 like the US did going into Iraq, so he came up with a story about Zelensky being a Nazi, which is really hard to believe. That's why a lot of people are saying his goose is cooked as a leader, because now the body bags are going back to Russia, and there's no good reason anyone has for it.
- pasabagi 5y agoChinese foreign policy is typically very cautious. They don't like instability of any kind. That's because they (rightly) see that if things keep on going as they currently are, they are going to outstrip everybody else economically. NATO was obviously upsetting the world order by expanding eastward, and for obvious historical reasons, the Chinese are not a fan of NATO, and doubly dislike a NATO that is changing the status quo. So, they would have very much preferred if everybody had settled the matter in negotiation, with or without the Ukranian's interests being taken into account. However, they are going to be increasingly unhappy the more bloody, divisive, and destabilizing the war becomes. PS: China also doesn't want instability in the west, for the record. Instability causes people like Trump, trade wars, and (god forbid) real wars, which at this point China could only lose. That's in contrast to Russia, which as a declining economy, would be well served by a chaotic situation. PPS: Obviously, China doesn't want unity in the west either. But nobody wants unity in any bloc they are not part of, as the UK is finding out with the EU. That's not unusual at all.
- hdjjhhvvhga 5y ago> That's in contrast to Russia, which as a declining economy, would be well served by a chaotic situation. I heard some people repeat this, but I don't follow the logic. Unless you are a major exporter of weapon system like the USA, war means draining resources. Yes you can increase local production of weapons for the local market, but in the case of Russia it's a direction downward, not upward. I read Russian press regularly and one of their major problems now is a sudden and drastic increase in mortgages. How will increased production of tanks help? Russians needs houses to live not more tanks - nobody sane is going to attack a country with so many nukes.
- hangonhn 5y agoOne narrative I've heard is that Russia is the only petro state in Europe and gets as much as 50% of their revenue from oil and gas. However, Ukraine also have some fossil fuel resources in the eastern and western edges of its territory along with huge gas reserves off of the Crimea peninsula. So maybe Russia is not so much served by the chaos of war as much as it needs to maintain a strangle hold over the gas and oil trade to Western Europe. Annexing the Crimea and the Donbas region gives it control over most of Ukraine's fossil fuel resources.
- hangonhn 5y agoMy own read on it is that China doesn't really have a stake in Ukraine vs. Russia but they have always been really uneasy about what Russia is doing in Ukraine because of what someone else already pointed out: China hates breakaway states. Coercing parts of another country to break away really runs counter to what China has been pushing for. On the ground level, there has been more than a few posts on Chinese social media in support of Ukraine. It's easy to draw the parallels between Ukraine being cut up by a more powerful neighbor with China's own "century of humiliation". Those posts didn't stay up for long though.
- aussiegreenie 5y agoChina, like every other country acts in its own self interest. China is/was serious about invading Taiwan. Russia has been one of the few countries that have not taken economic and diplomatic action regarding Chinese aggression. The scale of Russia's actions and the scale of the world's reaction have shocked China. Both Xi and Putin have been escolating conflicts for domestic political advantage. Both may have overplayed their hand and be killed by their own security forces. Xi wants the blessing of the 20th CCP congress (ccp 100 year anniversary) for unlimited power but the Jiang Zemin Faction is fighting him tooth and nail. Xi is not popular within the Party and there even talk of him destroying the CCP. Both Putin and Xi are using very high risk stratergies and it look like Putin is losing. Will Xi lose as well?
- kkfx 5y agoIMVHO they are hyper-happy. Russia more then ever need a partner and one of it's historical enemy, China, is the sole available, that means for China: - cheap natural resources in far bigger quantity than before - more financial power to frame and drive the development of Russian economy - probably access to hi-tech military gears they do not have had before Probably enough to overpower USA in few years. UK and USA (mind the order) IMVHO have really miscalculated the long term effect of NATO expansion to the east or they already have an agreement with Russia and/or China, something like: with the excuse of the Ukrainian war we avoid a real new world war, and all parties have excuses to tighten the grip on their citizens, justify the hyper-stagflation, justify any social tissue disruption and dictatorial measure etc etc. In just few days almost all protest about covid "conduct" of western government disappear, in Italy the emergency power that can't be legally renowned after two years are renowned "because of the war" until December 12, in France renewed talk about the "need" to postpone elections came out before the excuse was covid risk, "perhaps we will do e-voting", now the war, I imaging something "small scale" similar happen in almost all countries. Honestly what I see is just a BIG win from the world power all, together even those formally against each other, and a BIG loss for the people, again for every people, regardless of their country.
- tablespoon 5y ago> I wonder to what extent China is actually unhappy with the war, and to what it feels it cannot publicly support it. They publicly support it: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/27/business/china-russia-ukraine-invasion.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/27/business/china-russia-ukr... > As the world overwhelmingly condemns Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Chinese internet, for the most part, is pro-Russia, pro-war and pro-Putin. The Chinese internet doesn't get any way without the consent (and perhaps encouragement) from the authorities. What they don't censor is sometimes as important as what they do censor.
- seanmcdirmid 5y agoWhile that me be true, Chinese sentiment is already fairly pro Russian built up from many years of propaganda. They could stop censoring the internet tomorrow and public sentiment would still be overwhelmingly pro Russian and anti American. They censor the internet more aggressively for local issues or because they want to manipulate public sentiment in some way that is more guiding rather than drastic (eg get a bunch of people to protest the Japanese embassy in Beijing…and then get them to go home when that gets out of control).
- jansen555 5y agoThat is because the unhappy part is being broadcasted by western staff working for westrrn media. I suggest you grab hold of a China Chinese and see what China is talking about Russia. In fact many projected 2022 might be the year China invade Taiwan. Then we will see how bold the rest of the world is when they cant get their junk and inflation spike 50%.
- ajross 5y ago> really caught them and, really, a lot of observers by surprise Including, I suspect, most of those western governments who've always assumed that consensus was just too difficult. The best insight I've seen here was earlier today in a tweet, but I forget by who. Basically: Europe is sick of Russia's bullshit. They've been stomping around on world order for decades now (poisoning dissidents on foreign soil, seizing territory, pushing disinformation at foreign political markets, etc...).. But actually fighting them back required coordination, and unanimity, which you really can't get in a normal democracy. Until two things happened: 1. Russia went just one step too far with a full-on unjustified invasion, and 2. it went poorly. Now they can't sew this mess up quickly and get back to "normal". And Europe smells blood in the water. Once the dominoes started falling they all went, very quickly. This is their chance to get rid of Putin.
- type0 5y ago> This is their chance to get rid of Putin. And how would that happen? does anyone really think the oligarchs going to overthrow him, they are more afraid of him than comrade peasants were afraid of Stalin.
- ajross 5y agoNo one fears "Putin", or "Stalin". They fear the security apparatus that the dictator controls. And that security apparatus needs to be paid: in rubles, status, feudal power, familial influence, party promotions, regional rivalries, etc... In 1937, Stalin could effect the Great Purge by rewarding his NKVD with nothing but things he already controlled as the head of the party, using no resources that had to be sourced from outside the borders of the USSR (and after 1940, of course, he didn't even need to pay them because they were serving him out of patriotism in an attempt to save the nation from Hitler). In 2022 Putin needs to pay his support structure with iPhones and yachts. That's harder to do when your economy is shit. We'll see. No one can predict a coup. But these are the circumstances that produce them.
- ngcc_hk 5y agoThat is why I initially think. But one minor issue … the vote in 2014 over ukraine is also abstain. I also have a bit of issue with india also abstain. Hence not sure about this. They might think they are fine as Russia will get in so quick they think at least, just switch flag.
- type0 5y ago> I also have a bit of issue with india also abstain. India depends on buying weapons from Russia, and they are afraid to loose Russia into even stronger hug with China. The worst thing they can do now is to spoil their relations with Putin, also they don't care about Europe (China at least partly does).
- jansen555 5y agoThose are for show for public consumption. Behind the scenes arent that bad. Look at Iran, we always read how bad the economy is. Bet you didnt know Iranian have no shitty places like the drug invested Phily in America. Yes, they dont have gmail and youtube. But they still get torrent, porns and lots of Internet freedom as western counterparts.