13 ms·

Russia 'Likely' to Default on Debts

106 points by baybal2 5y ago

duxup 5y ago
I wonder if Russian leadership miscalculated the scale of international response / the international community’s will to act / coordinate. Word has it Russia has been trying to insulate themselves in case of sanctions for a while now … but things have moved very quickly and Russia seems way more isolated than before. Even China seems more uncomfortable with the situation as time goes on.
- hollerith 5y ago
  I just hope the West didn't miscalculate Russian response to their economy's violent contraction. Some say that if the US had never imposed sanctions on Japan in the 1930s, Japan wouldn't've attacked Pearl Harbor. In that case, the sanctions made it hard for Japan to import petroleum with the result that the Japanese chose to secure their supply by conquest of countries with petroleum reserves (mainly Indonesia IIRC).
  - duxup 5y ago
    Yeah it’s hard to know where / when you draw the line, but a war of choice by a despot to topple a democracy…. It’s hard not to draw the line there. Hopefully this all ends soon, for everyone’s sake.
  - enkid 5y ago
    So the West should just let Russia invade Ukraine? The reason Japan attacked Pearl Harbor was because of the oil embargo, sure. But the oil embargo was in place because of their aggression against China. Should the US have kept selling oil to a country that was killing 100,000's of people in China? If is, where is the line drawn? When should the US have stopped supporting the Japanese war(which is what they were doing by selling the oil needed to carry it out)?
    - erichocean 5y ago
      - pixl97 5y ago
        Every libertarian is fine with libertarianism right up till the moment they experience the repercussions of their actions. When someone murders a person you stop them, even if the risk of them murdering more people is a possibility.
        erichocean 5y ago
        > When someone murders a person you stop them, even if the risk of them murdering more people is a possibility. Really? There were ~800 homicides in Chicago last year.[0] I haven't lifted a finger, have you? Maybe we should announce an "oil blockade" on the city to get them to change their behavior. Strip their funding. Block trade with other states/cities. But (of course) we won't. Why? Chicago? Those are our friends. And we reward our friends! "Murder" has nothing to do with it, and neither do "libertarian" principles. [0] https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/criminal-justice/ct-2021-homicides-final-20220103-lrpzuh5nsjhspmos3edrzxu2ei-story.html https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/criminal-justice/ct-2021...
        pixl97 5y ago
        I might suggest just removing your reply, it's seeming rather unhinged and disconnected from the facts at hand.
      - ceejayoz 5y ago
        > Because of the blockade, we eventually ended up killing 250K Americans, burned alive 150K German civilians, and nuked two cities in Japan. We're just gonna pretend "ended the Holocaust" doesn't sit on the other side of that scale, eh?
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
  - nest0r 5y ago
    You mean one of the first countries to join the axis that reffed up their military industrial complex even before the sanctions would not have joined the war? Sound logic :)
    - hollerith 5y ago
      Didn't say they wouldn't've joined the war, just that they prol wouldn't've surprise-attacked the US.
  - ngcc_hk 5y ago
    Not sure about that. That might be the trigger but attack USA is always in the plan to force USA out of the picture. In fact the key strategy is clean out all the aircraft carrier. Same here, to build back Soviet Union this might be the first step not just end there. The next will force the Baltic 3 back. Then Poland. Otherwise see UKraine. It does not work out smoothly does not mean there is no plan. The attack on pearl harbour is not due to oil embargo. Just like invasion of Ukraine is not because of … —— As said by others we as free people has to fight back. If no boots how about money. Can’t just sit. We will suffer as well. But better suffer now than sorry later.
- hangonhn 5y ago
  Yeah. I think the swiftness, severity, and unity of the response from the EU and US really caught them and, really, a lot of observers by surprise. China's tepid "abstain" during the Security Council vote tells you a lot about how China feels about this war and that China's ambassador to Ukraine was not evacuated when war broke out hints at China thinking war wouldn't break out. It's tragic what's happening in Ukraine but I do hope various other countries will also learn from this and refrain from using violence as a means of achieving their goals.
  - rich_sasha 5y ago
    I wonder to what extent China is actually unhappy with the war, and to what it feels it cannot publicly support it. I’m not saying China is a devious country who loves shelling civilians, just that it’s hard to establish their attitude given the circumstances.
    - KptMarchewa 5y ago
      A large part of Russian propaganda around the outbreak of the war was about supporting their puppet separatist states. China, for obvious reason, can't be happy about it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_the_Donetsk_People%27s_Republic_and_the_Luhansk_People%27s_Republic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_t...
    - ajross 5y ago
      China would benefit, just like Russia would, from division in the west and a general sense that "world powers can seize territory of similar ethnic groups" (c.f. Taiwan). The invasion has had the opposite effect. This is a disaster for the PRC too. It's seeming increasingly possible that Putin's government may not even survive and the consolation prize of getting a nuclear power as a Chinese sattelite state may even evaporate.
    - tomatotomato37 5y ago
      China is seeing what was communicated as a quick invasion of a city 60 miles from a land border turn into a slaughter. I bet they are now re-evaluating their own chances against the mountainous island littered with hidden bunkers and airstrips
- petre 5y ago
  China is the obvious winner in this contest because the West has basically made Russia a Chinese satellite just like Kazahstan and Mongolia over the weekend. They are going to be economically dependent on China and India.
  - duxup 5y ago
    I’m not sure China is happy with / has a reliable friend in Russia. China’s response has been trending less favorable towards Russia day by day.
    - pixl97 5y ago
      China may not be happy, but they will buy Russian resources for pennies on the dollar gladly.
      - KptMarchewa 5y ago
        Yup, will squeeze Russia hard. They've got extremely profitable deal with 20% discount on Iranian oil and gas after Trump resanctioned them. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93China_25-year_Cooperation_Program https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93China_25-year_Coo...
    - ivan_gammel 5y ago
      China has interests, not friends. They were quick to tell Russians to get the hell out of Kazakhstan after their peacekeeping mission was over after the recent failed coup. Their interests are Siberian resources and security of trade routes. They value trade with the West more than with Russia, so happy to apply Western sanctions if needed (already happening).
  - mancerayder 5y ago
    China has way more ties than economically with the U.S. and the E.U. than China, doesn't it ? The Chinese care about business, and war and instability aren't great for business.
- thr0wawayf00 5y ago
  One of Russia's biggest miscalculations was its military readiness. It's now pretty clear that their vision of how the invasion would play out has not matched reality, largely due to corruption in the armed forces. This actually feels somewhat similar to the US pullout in Afghanistan last year. In that case, the Taliban regained control of the country very quickly because many of the military assets that the allied forces were counting on simply didn't exist, they were overestimated figures for local military officials to siphon cash out of the military with. Russia seems to be in a similar boat. They're not nearly effective enough to maintain supply lines and there's a lot of reporting that many of the infantry are young conscripts that weren't told what they were about to do. This reeks of a corrupt military collapsing under its own weight.
  - MrMan 5y ago
    I think the mission in Afghanistan was meaningless, or impossible, alternately. I dont think what happened there is a military failure but a failure to restrain ourselves and not go there in large numbers in the first place.
  - duxup 5y ago
    With the caveat that it is early. I agree the military performance has been shocking. Russian conventional military capabilities seem dramatically poorer than anyone expected. As you note, supply lines, coordination, poor conscripts with out support/ knowing what is going on. No ability to fight at night… Really surprising.
    - rich_sasha 5y ago
      Russia also spent the last decade or so drumming up how amazing their new military technology is. Invincible tanks, impenetrable air defences, all-seeing radars. That’s falling too. Interestingly, it seems like a common theme from the Cold War too.
    - LaMarseillaise 5y ago
      I had been saying for years that Russian conventional military power was vastly overestimated, yet even I have been surprised at their dismal performance so far. A week ago, I assumed decisive Russian victory to be a foregone conclusion. Now a Ukrainian victory actually seems possible and perhaps even plausible. You are right to point out that it is early, though.
- AniseAbyss 5y ago
  McArthur thought the Chinese wouldn't dare to cross into Korea. Sometimes your enemy doesn't follow the script...
- andreskytt 5y ago
  It’s an extremely cautionary tale of information warfare and propaganda in general. They can provide short-term benefits, but in the long run, it will be impossible to maintain a complete blanket of falsehood without obscuring the reality from yourself. There are some fine folks in US, who should take this lesson to heart, I think.
system16 5y ago
The speed, severity, and coordination of the west's response to this has been truly remarkable. Putin must be completely shocked at how this has played out. I expect China to be taking notes and wouldn't be surprised to see them reign in their 'wolf warriors' and claw back their aggressive posturing once the dust settles. The "Taiwan issue" just became a lot more complicated for them.
- bmmayer1 5y ago
  I'd go one step further: I wouldn't be surprised if China goaded Putin into this specifically to test the West's response without direct exposure.
  - hutrdvnj 5y ago
    I agree. Putin could be China's crash test dummy, to see what would happen in case they would invade Taiwan. I think the crash test didn't pass.
- seanp2k2 5y ago
  Yep; was just reading https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/2/28/as-russias-isolation-grows-china-hints-at-limits-of-friendship https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/2/28/as-russias-isola... this AM.
  - nosianu 5y ago
    > [Cheng-Yun Tsang, an expert in financial regulation at National Chengchi University in Taiwan] said Beijing’s moves to distance itself from Moscow appeared mostly symbolic, inflicting little actual pain on the Russian economy. After reading that link, that seems to be a pretty accurate summary, when adding that > China also relies heavily on the SWIFT system. These facts might well lead China to a somewhat prudent move when it comes to providing financing with Russia, as jeopardising its own ability to transact in US dollars would never be a good idea. So that they are cautious to > comply with the letter of the law, but in my opinion, not the spirit of the law [Alicia García Herrero, chief Asia Pacific economist at Natixis in Hong Kong] > Gary Ng, an Asia economist at Natixis, said the current sanctions regime gives China considerable room to continue legitimate trade with Russia. It's tough because the sanctions are meant to be bad enough but not so bad that alternative systems start to benefit too much, reducing Western - and US-$ - influence in the long run.
newaccount2021 5y ago
myth_drannon 5y ago
Putin&Co will have plenty of food on the table, unlike common folks. Now all the desperate young men will enlist to fight for him (or maybe against him like in 1917), it was already happening with contract soldiers in Syria. It's understandable that the only way to pressure Russia is sanctions (can't invade there or assassinate him) but it looks like putting poison in one million city water system to kill a murderer while he drinks water from bottles. But war is war...
- steve76 5y ago
- hutrdvnj 5y ago
  Well there could be russians that try to assassinate him without any involvement from western countries.
  - duxup 5y ago
    If they could… Say “dude went insane”. Install some new guy. Cut a deal to pull out. Would be great for everyone. Blame Putin, gives everyone an out.
- singularity2001 5y ago
  Indeed. The world may have lost an enormous opportunity to bring the russian population on its side. The following days will be crucial in revealing whether the russian people will resort to an us vs then mindset or them vs putin.
  - myth_drannon 5y ago
    Sanctions induce poverty. Russians will be thinking how to get a bit of food on their table and survive another day, they not going to have energy to make the change. Sanctions may look like a good tool but unfortunately they just make authoritarian regimes stronger.
beebmam 5y ago
I'm very proud of the international community. Wars of conquest/aggression should be universally opposed and sanctioned. It's one of the key components to a peaceful future for us on earth. I wish the best for the future of the Russian people, to get a government they deserve, one that doesn't throw human life wantonly into a meat grinder.
- erichocean 5y ago
  > Wars of conquest/aggression should be universally opposed and sanctioned. Naw, that would have prevented us from toppling Sadam in Iraq, or Gaddafi in Libya. We couldn't support Saudi Arabia's current War in Yemen. Better to be realistic: reward our friends, punish our enemies. Ukraine? Friend. Russia? Enemy. It's simpler this way.
  - steve76 5y ago
    [dead]
  - hraedon 5y ago
    That we currently don't universally oppose and sanction wars of conquest and aggression doesn't mean that we shouldn't. The invasion of Ukraine is an especially egregious example, and it is good that the world is unifying to disincentivize that sort of aggression. Like, the US at least attempted to invent a casus belli for Iraq, and it was one that Saddam couldn't aggressively contest without revealing Iraq's weakness to Iran. Gaddafi was deposed because his administration killed protestors and provoked a civil war. Yemen is a proxy conflict against Iran and while our involvement is indefensible the goal of the aggressors isn't to annex the country. Even Russia has benefited from this ambiguity: the international response to the Russian seizure of Crimea was very limited, and there was essentially no organized sanction over their campaign in Syria (which included at least one attack on US soldiers). In this conflict, Putin's speech ahead of the invasion of Ukraine made it absolutely clear that there is nothing provoking this conflict beyond Russian imperialism. The erroneously published document outlining the rationale assuming a Russian victory confirmed those sentiments [1]. Ukrainian resistance bought time for a coordinated response and the personal heroism and charisma of Zelenskyy (along with strong American leadership in the background) galvanized Europe. A hard line against wars of conquest is a good one to draw and rally around, even if it isn't perfect. [1]: https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-state-news-published-an-article-saying-russia-defeated-ukraine-2022-2 https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-state-news-published...
jug 5y ago
I wonder what these extreme sanctions will do to Putin. They obviously have not made him stop fighting. But these sanctions are so severe that they'll probably even prevent him from rebuilding his army following this due to sanctions blocking imports to fuel his war industry. So, since he is still fighting, what is he fighting _for_? Still trying to expand Russia? But the Russia we knew is already not going to be the same as it once was. Putin will never be able to return to a status quo again. Does he not understand this, that he is already a pariah on the world stage? Does he now fight under some sort of tunnel vision? And what is such a man capable of? This scares me.
- duxup 5y ago
  Putin offered stability and a sort of pride for Russia. Not that I like despots, but I can understand that. He doesn’t offer that to Russians anymore… Word has it Russians largely thought there wouldn’t even be a war. I hope the locals can deal with him quickly and change course. As for Putin himself, this whole situation seems odd even for a macho saber rattler like Putin. I think there is something to wondering an his frame of mind.
- UncleOxidant 5y ago
  It takes a while for a ruler who has surrounded himself with yes-men to face reality. > And what is such a man capable of? This scares me.o Yes, this is a scary time. I saw someone on twitter suggest that we need to offer him some sort of safe haven he can retire to so he doesn't feel so cornered. Not sure it that would work, though, probably too much pride. Probably the best we can hope for at this point is some kind of palace coup. Some of the oligarchs are already speaking out publicly against him which indicates that any level of fear they had of him is waning. An internal coup would've been an unrealistic expectation a few days ago, now it seems within the realm of possibility.
  - icedata 5y ago
    Elba?
    - 5y ago
jmacd 5y ago
The smartest defence thinkers I know and/or follow (I worked in the space for a few years, enough to know I didn't want to be there but I did meet some really sharp people) have all switched to a pretty cautious tone in the last few days. Not because they think Ukraine will lose the war necessarily, but that short of a palace coup we need to give someone as unhinged as Putin a way out of this. The "dunking" has been coming fast and furious and for good reason, but we could get to a place where he has no way out but forward. Historically it's rare or non existent that a losing strongman would go out quietly.
emerged 5y ago
Best case scenario is for us to discover Putin had been poisoned with something which made him aggressive and delusional. This would be about the only way to fully revert to status quo.

106 points by baybal2 5y ago

I wonder if Russian leadership miscalculated the scale of international response / the international community’s will to act / coordinate. Word has it Russia has been trying to insulate themselves in case of sanctions for a while now … but things have moved very quickly and Russia seems way more isolated than before. Even China seems more uncomfortable with the situation as time goes on.

hollerith 5y ago
I just hope the West didn't miscalculate Russian response to their economy's violent contraction. Some say that if the US had never imposed sanctions on Japan in the 1930s, Japan wouldn't've attacked Pearl Harbor. In that case, the sanctions made it hard for Japan to import petroleum with the result that the Japanese chose to secure their supply by conquest of countries with petroleum reserves (mainly Indonesia IIRC).
- duxup 5y ago
  Yeah it’s hard to know where / when you draw the line, but a war of choice by a despot to topple a democracy…. It’s hard not to draw the line there. Hopefully this all ends soon, for everyone’s sake.
- enkid 5y ago
  So the West should just let Russia invade Ukraine? The reason Japan attacked Pearl Harbor was because of the oil embargo, sure. But the oil embargo was in place because of their aggression against China. Should the US have kept selling oil to a country that was killing 100,000's of people in China? If is, where is the line drawn? When should the US have stopped supporting the Japanese war(which is what they were doing by selling the oil needed to carry it out)?
  - erichocean 5y ago
    - pixl97 5y ago
      Every libertarian is fine with libertarianism right up till the moment they experience the repercussions of their actions. When someone murders a person you stop them, even if the risk of them murdering more people is a possibility.
      - erichocean 5y ago
        > When someone murders a person you stop them, even if the risk of them murdering more people is a possibility. Really? There were ~800 homicides in Chicago last year.[0] I haven't lifted a finger, have you? Maybe we should announce an "oil blockade" on the city to get them to change their behavior. Strip their funding. Block trade with other states/cities. But (of course) we won't. Why? Chicago? Those are our friends. And we reward our friends! "Murder" has nothing to do with it, and neither do "libertarian" principles. [0] https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/criminal-justice/ct-2021-homicides-final-20220103-lrpzuh5nsjhspmos3edrzxu2ei-story.html https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/criminal-justice/ct-2021...
        pixl97 5y ago
        I might suggest just removing your reply, it's seeming rather unhinged and disconnected from the facts at hand.
    - ceejayoz 5y ago
      > Because of the blockade, we eventually ended up killing 250K Americans, burned alive 150K German civilians, and nuked two cities in Japan. We're just gonna pretend "ended the Holocaust" doesn't sit on the other side of that scale, eh?
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
- nest0r 5y ago
  You mean one of the first countries to join the axis that reffed up their military industrial complex even before the sanctions would not have joined the war? Sound logic :)
  - hollerith 5y ago
    Didn't say they wouldn't've joined the war, just that they prol wouldn't've surprise-attacked the US.
- ngcc_hk 5y ago
  Not sure about that. That might be the trigger but attack USA is always in the plan to force USA out of the picture. In fact the key strategy is clean out all the aircraft carrier. Same here, to build back Soviet Union this might be the first step not just end there. The next will force the Baltic 3 back. Then Poland. Otherwise see UKraine. It does not work out smoothly does not mean there is no plan. The attack on pearl harbour is not due to oil embargo. Just like invasion of Ukraine is not because of … —— As said by others we as free people has to fight back. If no boots how about money. Can’t just sit. We will suffer as well. But better suffer now than sorry later.
hangonhn 5y ago
Yeah. I think the swiftness, severity, and unity of the response from the EU and US really caught them and, really, a lot of observers by surprise. China's tepid "abstain" during the Security Council vote tells you a lot about how China feels about this war and that China's ambassador to Ukraine was not evacuated when war broke out hints at China thinking war wouldn't break out. It's tragic what's happening in Ukraine but I do hope various other countries will also learn from this and refrain from using violence as a means of achieving their goals.
- rich_sasha 5y ago
  I wonder to what extent China is actually unhappy with the war, and to what it feels it cannot publicly support it. I’m not saying China is a devious country who loves shelling civilians, just that it’s hard to establish their attitude given the circumstances.
  - KptMarchewa 5y ago
    A large part of Russian propaganda around the outbreak of the war was about supporting their puppet separatist states. China, for obvious reason, can't be happy about it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_the_Donetsk_People%27s_Republic_and_the_Luhansk_People%27s_Republic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_t...
  - ajross 5y ago
    China would benefit, just like Russia would, from division in the west and a general sense that "world powers can seize territory of similar ethnic groups" (c.f. Taiwan). The invasion has had the opposite effect. This is a disaster for the PRC too. It's seeming increasingly possible that Putin's government may not even survive and the consolation prize of getting a nuclear power as a Chinese sattelite state may even evaporate.
  - tomatotomato37 5y ago
    China is seeing what was communicated as a quick invasion of a city 60 miles from a land border turn into a slaughter. I bet they are now re-evaluating their own chances against the mountainous island littered with hidden bunkers and airstrips
petre 5y ago
China is the obvious winner in this contest because the West has basically made Russia a Chinese satellite just like Kazahstan and Mongolia over the weekend. They are going to be economically dependent on China and India.
- duxup 5y ago
  I’m not sure China is happy with / has a reliable friend in Russia. China’s response has been trending less favorable towards Russia day by day.
  - pixl97 5y ago
    China may not be happy, but they will buy Russian resources for pennies on the dollar gladly.
    - KptMarchewa 5y ago
      Yup, will squeeze Russia hard. They've got extremely profitable deal with 20% discount on Iranian oil and gas after Trump resanctioned them. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93China_25-year_Cooperation_Program https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93China_25-year_Coo...
  - ivan_gammel 5y ago
    China has interests, not friends. They were quick to tell Russians to get the hell out of Kazakhstan after their peacekeeping mission was over after the recent failed coup. Their interests are Siberian resources and security of trade routes. They value trade with the West more than with Russia, so happy to apply Western sanctions if needed (already happening).
- mancerayder 5y ago
  China has way more ties than economically with the U.S. and the E.U. than China, doesn't it ? The Chinese care about business, and war and instability aren't great for business.
thr0wawayf00 5y ago
One of Russia's biggest miscalculations was its military readiness. It's now pretty clear that their vision of how the invasion would play out has not matched reality, largely due to corruption in the armed forces. This actually feels somewhat similar to the US pullout in Afghanistan last year. In that case, the Taliban regained control of the country very quickly because many of the military assets that the allied forces were counting on simply didn't exist, they were overestimated figures for local military officials to siphon cash out of the military with. Russia seems to be in a similar boat. They're not nearly effective enough to maintain supply lines and there's a lot of reporting that many of the infantry are young conscripts that weren't told what they were about to do. This reeks of a corrupt military collapsing under its own weight.
- MrMan 5y ago
  I think the mission in Afghanistan was meaningless, or impossible, alternately. I dont think what happened there is a military failure but a failure to restrain ourselves and not go there in large numbers in the first place.
- duxup 5y ago
  With the caveat that it is early. I agree the military performance has been shocking. Russian conventional military capabilities seem dramatically poorer than anyone expected. As you note, supply lines, coordination, poor conscripts with out support/ knowing what is going on. No ability to fight at night… Really surprising.
  - rich_sasha 5y ago
    Russia also spent the last decade or so drumming up how amazing their new military technology is. Invincible tanks, impenetrable air defences, all-seeing radars. That’s falling too. Interestingly, it seems like a common theme from the Cold War too.
  - LaMarseillaise 5y ago
    I had been saying for years that Russian conventional military power was vastly overestimated, yet even I have been surprised at their dismal performance so far. A week ago, I assumed decisive Russian victory to be a foregone conclusion. Now a Ukrainian victory actually seems possible and perhaps even plausible. You are right to point out that it is early, though.
AniseAbyss 5y ago
McArthur thought the Chinese wouldn't dare to cross into Korea. Sometimes your enemy doesn't follow the script...
andreskytt 5y ago
It’s an extremely cautionary tale of information warfare and propaganda in general. They can provide short-term benefits, but in the long run, it will be impossible to maintain a complete blanket of falsehood without obscuring the reality from yourself. There are some fine folks in US, who should take this lesson to heart, I think.

system16 5y ago

The speed, severity, and coordination of the west's response to this has been truly remarkable. Putin must be completely shocked at how this has played out. I expect China to be taking notes and wouldn't be surprised to see them reign in their 'wolf warriors' and claw back their aggressive posturing once the dust settles. The "Taiwan issue" just became a lot more complicated for them.

bmmayer1 5y ago
I'd go one step further: I wouldn't be surprised if China goaded Putin into this specifically to test the West's response without direct exposure.
- hutrdvnj 5y ago
  I agree. Putin could be China's crash test dummy, to see what would happen in case they would invade Taiwan. I think the crash test didn't pass.
seanp2k2 5y ago
Yep; was just reading https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/2/28/as-russias-isolation-grows-china-hints-at-limits-of-friendship https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/2/28/as-russias-isola... this AM.
- nosianu 5y ago
  > [Cheng-Yun Tsang, an expert in financial regulation at National Chengchi University in Taiwan] said Beijing’s moves to distance itself from Moscow appeared mostly symbolic, inflicting little actual pain on the Russian economy. After reading that link, that seems to be a pretty accurate summary, when adding that > China also relies heavily on the SWIFT system. These facts might well lead China to a somewhat prudent move when it comes to providing financing with Russia, as jeopardising its own ability to transact in US dollars would never be a good idea. So that they are cautious to > comply with the letter of the law, but in my opinion, not the spirit of the law [Alicia García Herrero, chief Asia Pacific economist at Natixis in Hong Kong] > Gary Ng, an Asia economist at Natixis, said the current sanctions regime gives China considerable room to continue legitimate trade with Russia. It's tough because the sanctions are meant to be bad enough but not so bad that alternative systems start to benefit too much, reducing Western - and US-$ - influence in the long run.

newaccount2021 5y ago

myth_drannon 5y ago

Putin&Co will have plenty of food on the table, unlike common folks. Now all the desperate young men will enlist to fight for him (or maybe against him like in 1917), it was already happening with contract soldiers in Syria. It's understandable that the only way to pressure Russia is sanctions (can't invade there or assassinate him) but it looks like putting poison in one million city water system to kill a murderer while he drinks water from bottles. But war is war...

steve76 5y ago
hutrdvnj 5y ago
Well there could be russians that try to assassinate him without any involvement from western countries.
- duxup 5y ago
  If they could… Say “dude went insane”. Install some new guy. Cut a deal to pull out. Would be great for everyone. Blame Putin, gives everyone an out.
singularity2001 5y ago
Indeed. The world may have lost an enormous opportunity to bring the russian population on its side. The following days will be crucial in revealing whether the russian people will resort to an us vs then mindset or them vs putin.
- myth_drannon 5y ago
  Sanctions induce poverty. Russians will be thinking how to get a bit of food on their table and survive another day, they not going to have energy to make the change. Sanctions may look like a good tool but unfortunately they just make authoritarian regimes stronger.

beebmam 5y ago

I'm very proud of the international community. Wars of conquest/aggression should be universally opposed and sanctioned. It's one of the key components to a peaceful future for us on earth. I wish the best for the future of the Russian people, to get a government they deserve, one that doesn't throw human life wantonly into a meat grinder.

erichocean 5y ago
> Wars of conquest/aggression should be universally opposed and sanctioned. Naw, that would have prevented us from toppling Sadam in Iraq, or Gaddafi in Libya. We couldn't support Saudi Arabia's current War in Yemen. Better to be realistic: reward our friends, punish our enemies. Ukraine? Friend. Russia? Enemy. It's simpler this way.
- steve76 5y ago
  [dead]
- hraedon 5y ago
  That we currently don't universally oppose and sanction wars of conquest and aggression doesn't mean that we shouldn't. The invasion of Ukraine is an especially egregious example, and it is good that the world is unifying to disincentivize that sort of aggression. Like, the US at least attempted to invent a casus belli for Iraq, and it was one that Saddam couldn't aggressively contest without revealing Iraq's weakness to Iran. Gaddafi was deposed because his administration killed protestors and provoked a civil war. Yemen is a proxy conflict against Iran and while our involvement is indefensible the goal of the aggressors isn't to annex the country. Even Russia has benefited from this ambiguity: the international response to the Russian seizure of Crimea was very limited, and there was essentially no organized sanction over their campaign in Syria (which included at least one attack on US soldiers). In this conflict, Putin's speech ahead of the invasion of Ukraine made it absolutely clear that there is nothing provoking this conflict beyond Russian imperialism. The erroneously published document outlining the rationale assuming a Russian victory confirmed those sentiments [1]. Ukrainian resistance bought time for a coordinated response and the personal heroism and charisma of Zelenskyy (along with strong American leadership in the background) galvanized Europe. A hard line against wars of conquest is a good one to draw and rally around, even if it isn't perfect. [1]: https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-state-news-published-an-article-saying-russia-defeated-ukraine-2022-2 https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-state-news-published...

jug 5y ago

I wonder what these extreme sanctions will do to Putin. They obviously have not made him stop fighting. But these sanctions are so severe that they'll probably even prevent him from rebuilding his army following this due to sanctions blocking imports to fuel his war industry. So, since he is still fighting, what is he fighting _for_? Still trying to expand Russia? But the Russia we knew is already not going to be the same as it once was. Putin will never be able to return to a status quo again. Does he not understand this, that he is already a pariah on the world stage? Does he now fight under some sort of tunnel vision? And what is such a man capable of? This scares me.

duxup 5y ago
Putin offered stability and a sort of pride for Russia. Not that I like despots, but I can understand that. He doesn’t offer that to Russians anymore… Word has it Russians largely thought there wouldn’t even be a war. I hope the locals can deal with him quickly and change course. As for Putin himself, this whole situation seems odd even for a macho saber rattler like Putin. I think there is something to wondering an his frame of mind.
UncleOxidant 5y ago
It takes a while for a ruler who has surrounded himself with yes-men to face reality. > And what is such a man capable of? This scares me.o Yes, this is a scary time. I saw someone on twitter suggest that we need to offer him some sort of safe haven he can retire to so he doesn't feel so cornered. Not sure it that would work, though, probably too much pride. Probably the best we can hope for at this point is some kind of palace coup. Some of the oligarchs are already speaking out publicly against him which indicates that any level of fear they had of him is waning. An internal coup would've been an unrealistic expectation a few days ago, now it seems within the realm of possibility.
- icedata 5y ago
  Elba?
  - 5y ago

jmacd 5y ago

The smartest defence thinkers I know and/or follow (I worked in the space for a few years, enough to know I didn't want to be there but I did meet some really sharp people) have all switched to a pretty cautious tone in the last few days. Not because they think Ukraine will lose the war necessarily, but that short of a palace coup we need to give someone as unhinged as Putin a way out of this. The "dunking" has been coming fast and furious and for good reason, but we could get to a place where he has no way out but forward. Historically it's rare or non existent that a losing strongman would go out quietly.

emerged 5y ago

Best case scenario is for us to discover Putin had been poisoned with something which made him aggressive and delusional. This would be about the only way to fully revert to status quo.