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Panasonic to begin mass producing new 4680 Tesla battery by March 2024
- dwighttk 5y agoArticle was written when they thought this was coming at the end of this month… actually 25 months away. Did the share price spike? If so who made money?
- Gravityloss 5y agoThis cylindrical form factor might make sense for batteries that have thermal runaway potential, to keep the unit size small so that the whole battery doesn't go into thermal runaway, only one cell. But for LFP or iron based batteries which don't have such issues, the blade design should be cheaper, more maintainable, more space and weight efficient etc. There's no glue so you can actually just switch individual blades. Cooling channels can be straight.
- colejohnson66 5y agoAssuming this image I found online is of 4680s, there’s quite a bit of wasted space: https://www.teslarati.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/tesla-4680-battery-cells.jpg https://www.teslarati.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/tesla-4...
- dahfizz 5y agoVolumetric efficiency is not a big concern for EVs. They already have more storage than an equivalent ICE vehicle (frunk, no trans tunnel, etc). Giving up space for better weight and cooling is worth it.
- meragrin_ 5y agoIsn't some of that "wasted" space necessary for cooling the batteries?
- trainsarebetter 5y agooffset every row and significant reduction in “wasted space” also cooling is a huge part of what makes these work. We have to stop looking at battery’s from purely a cell level. Add in the structural element, and the claim is they are now more volumetric and weight efficient than traditional packs.
- Goz3rr 5y agoThe actual arrangement of cylindrical cells is staggered: https://cdn.motor1.com/images/mgl/XkV66/s1/tesla-model-y-4680-type-cylindrical-cells-and-structural-battery-source-paul-kelly.jpg https://cdn.motor1.com/images/mgl/XkV66/s1/tesla-model-y-468...
- Gravityloss 5y agoExactly. Sandy Munro has an excellent video with multiple different battery packs torn down and compared: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4JiDZVO9NdM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4JiDZVO9NdM You can see that the cooling channels in the Tesla pack are these hollow undulating aluminum shapes. Can imagine they're not very cheap. Also the Tesla packs are filled with some kind of bonding foam, making repairs near impossible.
- Tempest1981 5y ago> bonding foam Is that maybe to reduce the spread of fire? I know Tesla put a lot of work into that. Others too, I hope.
- cma 5y agoWhy not use two size tiers of cylindrical cells, smaller ones to fill in the gaps? With only one size the empty space ratio is the same.
- Armisael16 5y agoIt definitely isn’t the same. The square packing in the first picture uses pi/4 ~ 79% of the space; the second uses pi/(2*sqrt(3)) ~ 91% of the space. They don’t bother with smaller secondary batteries because the extra manufacturing cost and operational complexity isn’t worth it for a 5%-10% bump in volumetric energy density.
- cma 5y agoI didn't mean to say the two packings were the same. 90% is better than I thought circle packing was though, I've mostly seen multi-scale packing used in thermal pastes and stuff and it is probably a bigger difference in 3d sphere packing.
- kube-system 5y agoSounds like the form factor Toyota has used in their NiMH packs for basically forever. They’re surprisingly serviceable for DIYers.
- mrfusion 5y agoSo Toyota still uses nimh in its hybrids? Does that make them longer lasting?
- kube-system 5y agoThey currently use some of both NiMh and Li-ion. Toyota is notoriously conservative when choosing technologies. My guess is they still use a lot of NiMH because they have proven long-term reliability, more forgiving characteristics in harsh use, and they already have a lot of existing tooling to support them. If there any single car that has made the general public comfortable with very expensive batteries in their car: it’s the Prius.
- ButchC 5y agoAll those things are true when comparing NiMH to NiCd but definitely not compared to lithium batteries. There's not a single metric for which you can't find a superior suitable lithium chemistry. Except for one: $Cost Just Toyota doing Toyota things. Also I would strongly disagree on the Prius comment. A lot of "HV battery fault" cars out there back in the day, refurbing them was a pretty good business for a while. The NiMH pack in the Prius was the basis for so many slack jawed comments "EVs will never work! You're just going to have to replace the battery every 5 years!"
- kube-system 5y agoCost, as you mentioned, is one reason. However they also fare better at extended temperature ranges and under long periods of self discharge. They are, generally speaking, more forgiving of a battery chemistry. Your quote about rollout of the Prius is exactly my point. That opinion was widespread when the Prius was introduced. The reliability of the Prius since then has changed public opinion greatly.
- vardump 5y agoIsn't cylindrical form factor simply easier and cheaper to manufacture? Decades of industry experience manufacturing a ton of cylindrical products.
- stetrain 5y agoMy understanding is Tesla currently uses cylindrical cells for NCA packs and blade/prismatic cells for LFP battery packs.
- konspence 5y agoHow would a cylindrical shape isolate thermal runaway to one cell?
- snovv_crash 5y agoDuring fire they vent from one end, not in the middle. So this directs any flames away from adjacent cells.
- throw0101a 5y agoEEVblog video "New Tesla 4680 Battery Cell EXPLAINED" from 2020: * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hbPKE62aM0U https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hbPKE62aM0U
- luxurytent 5y agoAs a Canadian who's currently driving a 9 year old Mazda 3, I'm waiting for the day it decides to call quits so I can move to an EV (9 isn't that old, so I'm hopeful at least another 2-3 years) That said, I wish there was a site that simply told me now's the right time to buy an EV. With supply chain issues, long waits for a new car, government rebates, and the influx of new inventory/models, it's hard to keep up when's the right time to transition!
- dwighttk 5y agoI bet it is good for another 10-11 years. Also it is always a good time to buy a new car* *according to ads
- stinos 5y agoI bet it is good for another 10-11 years. Indeed, and in reality it's probably better (as far as the planet goes) to keep on using the same car as long as possible because that means no new one has to be produced. Kinda hard to offset that with an EV even. At least I seem to recall that was the consensus but I cannot find where I got that. HN, I'd guess :)
- blisterpeanuts 5y agoI'm guessing in about a year. Supply chain problems, primarily chips but also some other parts, continue to plague auto manufacturing. In my industry (RFID), we're expecting the pipelines to unclog in about Q1 of '23 though we might see some relief before then. In late '22 there will likely be a wave of car buying, from pent-up demand, dumping lots of used cars on the market. Might be a good time to shop used. You might be able to find some good deals on used EV's (Leaf, Bolt, older Teslas).
- mrfusion 5y agoA coming car glut is almost as scary as the current shortage.
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- mrfusion 5y agoThat seems like a longer way off than we were expecting?
- ajross 5y agoThis is Panasonic's production. Tesla's own lines are running now, and we're at this moment just barely starting to see 4680 cars leaving the Austin factory.
- ButchC 5y ago"Panasonic Corp (6752.T) said on Monday it will begin mass production of a new lithium-ion battery for Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) before the end of March 2024 at a plant in Japan." Was this detail added by the article writer? Unless something has changed, Tesla cells are produced at the Tesla factories. These 4680 production lines are for Panasonic to sell to customers. Actual press release: https://news.panasonic.com/global/press/data/2022/02/en220228-6/en220228-6-1.pdf https://news.panasonic.com/global/press/data/2022/02/en22022...
- enragedcacti 5y agoTesla has been a huge proponent of the 4680 and rely on Panasonic for a huge number of batteries. I doubt they will supply them exclusively to Tesla but the vast majority will likely go there since no other EV platform (that I'm aware of) is ready to accommodate 4680s.
- _ea1k 5y agoModel S and X use 18650s manufactured in Japan. Maybe this is some long term plan to transition some unannounced vehicles to 4680?
- gameswithgo 5y agoThe model Y in Austin is supposed to use the 4680. Remains a question if the high horsepower cars can work with the bigger cells.
- _ea1k 5y agoOf course, but the 4680 Y in Austin is being manufactured this year, possibly even right now. The cells aren't provided by this plant in Japan, they are currently being provided by Tesla's own equipment in CA. I'm just guessing as to how they might use these cells that won't be produced in volume for at least two years. To me, new vehicles that haven't yet been announced are the most likely candidates. That could easily turn out to be wrong, of course.
- oblio 5y agoSomewhat off-topic, but maybe someone knows. There's one thing that worries me about EVs: local pollution. So, ICE cars release CO2 + they release local pollutants (NO, CO, etc), particulate matter, that kind of thing. EVs obviously don't directly release CO2 nor do they release those local pollutants. However, EVs are on average much heavier (probably 200-400kgs heavier), which means that they probably need bigger tires and they wear them out faster. They probably also wear roads faster. For local pollution, is the extra tire & road wear and tear equal or worse to the ICE tire & road wear and tear + exhaust gases? Does anyone know any studies about this?
- DoingIsLearning 5y agoI don't have a specific study but regenerative breaking as used in commercial EVs would mean less particulate from breakpads etc. not more.
- darknavi 5y agoMUCH less. Like one or two sets of break pads on a car for its lifetime.
- jeffbee 5y agoI'd be surprised if it was even 1. There was no measurable wear on the brake pads over the lease of my Nissan Leaf. It didn't even engage the hydraulic brakes often enough to knock the rust off the discs.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- oblio 5y agoGood point about break pads, I completely forgot about those. The thing is, that's another aspect where I'd naively assume tires are a much larger factor. I'm probably wrong, though.
- hinkley 5y ago
- rebelde 5y agoDoes anybody know why the range of a Tesla, such as the Model 3, is not increasing every year? I would expect more advances in battery capacity.
- karmicthreat 5y agoBecause we are in the incremental improvement phase of lithium ion batteries. Until a new chemistry/technology get developed we probably won't see giant increases in range.
- foxyv 5y agoWithout a breakdown of vehicle costs it's hard to know exactly why they haven't increased range. Out of PURE speculation, I think it's due to lack of competition. If you get a better battery then you can reduce manufacturing cost, improve reliability, and reduce weight if you don't increase the range. Without competition, there is no reason to increase range. Especially if their charging infrastructure is lightyears ahead of everyone.
- kraftman 5y agoMy guess is that its for the same reason phones battery life hasn't really changed much over the years: the current range is enough for most people. 300 ish miles is enough for local driving for a few days without worrying about recharging, and enough that most people will need to take a break when driving long distance more often than the car needs recharging.
- _joel 5y agoI guess because Moore's law doesn't apply to battery technology. It'd be cool if it did.
- xeromal 5y agoIt does increase slightly. There have been a handful of OTA updates that eek out 10-15 more miles of range, but those improve software efficiencies or better temperature management.
- _ea1k 5y agoThere are several valid answers, IMO. One, they have increased to some extent. The base Model 3 was announced as a $35k vehicle with 215 miles of range. Today, the closest trim to that has risen in price from ~38k a year ago to ~45k today, but also to 270 miles. The LR was RWD at launch and ~325 miles. It has since grown to AWD and ~350 miles. Beyond that, they've really focused on margin expansion more than range expansion. The current LR vehicles are remarkably practical for the majority of their use case, especially as the supercharger network has continued to expand to allow charging at the most optimum times in most cases. They seem to have a realization that consumers will tend to choose the highest range, even when its past the real needs for their use case and have slowed range expansion as a result. They aren't totally wrong. I do think they will resume expanding range once competitors really start to push them to do it. I think that situation is still 2-3 years away, though.
- foxyv 5y agoI really can't wait for these cells to be available for DIY at a cheap rate like 18650s and 21700s.
- TedShiller 5y agoLithium mining destroys the environment. Sure, oil does too. But so does lithium.
- DoingIsLearning 5y agoLithium mining destroys local environments just like most mining activities. Oil creates a global antropomorphic environmental cataclysm. The two are not the same and this is weak whataboutism.
- hinkley 5y agoWait till he hears about copper mines.
- DoingIsLearning 5y ago*anthropogenic
- 58028641 5y agoThe key is difference is lithium can be reused, but oil is consumed.
- jeffbee 5y agoYou could lose the entire world's lithium mines in the corner of one of hundreds of large-scale iron ore mines. Lithium ponds are also currently about 500 times smaller than the world's table salt ponds. Really, it's incredibly small and eliminates the demand for much more destructive oil and gas exploration.