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IMO this will make-or-break based on air superiority. Impression #1: The Ukrainian population is VERY MOTIVATED. Impression #2: The West will supply Ukraine's

IMO this will make-or-break based on air superiority. Impression #1: The Ukrainian population is VERY MOTIVATED. Impression #2: The West will supply Ukraine's population with as much infantry firepower (TOW, MANPAD, etc) as they need. As the days go on and military supplies flood into the Ukraine from the west, resistance will increase. Helicopters and tanks will take heavy, expensive, demoralizing losses against well coordinated anti-armor infantry defense forces. I also think the Ukrainian population will toughen and get trained/experienced in warfare quickly. Potentially Russia is training multiple millions of soldiers on the Ukrainian side with this attack, and forming a national identity, pride, and will to fight. The only Russian trump card in those situations is air power. I don't think this is like Afghanistan or the Iraq/Syria smorgasborg. Ukraine is THE buffer state between Europe and Russia. They are fairly westernized. I don't think there will be any concerns with blowback terrorism by equipping the hell out of the Ukrainian army and volunteers/populace. I don't think there are nearly as many policy/cultural concerns about supplying serious infantry weapons to the Ukraine. Even if all of Ukraine's airfields are compromised, likely Ukraine can continue air operations from Romania and the like. Would the West supply Ukraine with replacement air force? Uh, yeah. Russia had two military hopes: 1) very fast ground total victory (doubt it at this point, why did Russia attack in winter? Because they could get a quick victory they hoped? Even Russian soldiers will have lower morale in winter operations.) 2) win air superiority to enable a ground victory long enough to get puppet regime in and the West gives up support. I think this is where we are now, and I have NO IDEA how the air war is going.

kumarvvr 5y ago
> I don't think there will be any concerns with blowback terrorism by equipping the hell out of the Ukrainian army and volunteers/populace This is an important consideration. Already, EU is not reluctant to pour weapons into the region.
- PickledHotdog 5y ago
  That they're supplying weapons and vehicles for the first time speaks volumes. Germany reverses its "no lethal aid" policy and Sweden and Finland talk about getting closer to, if not joining, NATO. Putin seems to have galvanized the rest of Europe against him. I doubt that's what he wanted.
  - hypertele-Xii 5y ago
    Finland is on a fast-track to joining NATO now, a referendum immediately collected the required signatures and will now be brought to parliament. Also Finland gave permission for Germany to supply some cannons to Ukraine, and Finnish news said we also donate 2000 combat helmets and vests and two field hospitals.
    - HWR_14 5y ago
      Finland may ask for admittance, but is there any evidence NATO will let them in? After all, Ukraine also asked for admittance.
      - tim333 5y ago
        Finland would be let in. Ukraine was disqualified by already being in military disputes over Donbass and other stuff. I'm not sure Finland joining would make any practical difference - it would be mostly symbolic. NATO is basically limited to peaceful democracies. Turkey was a bit of an edge case.
  - BongoMcCat 5y ago
    sweden decided to send weapons yesterday (sunday) 5000 AT4 and some other stuff. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AT4 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AT4 Unfortunately no NLAWS. =( edit: source (in swedish): https://www.dn.se/sverige/sverige-skickar-militart-stod-till-ukraina/ https://www.dn.se/sverige/sverige-skickar-militart-stod-till...
infini8 5y ago
Russia just now is claiming air superiority. How much of that is propaganda to bolster spirits of ground troops is questionable. https://twitter.com/afp/status/1498196443865452545?s=21 https://twitter.com/afp/status/1498196443865452545?s=21
- javier2 5y ago
  Ukraine basically had zero air presence to begin with.
- hypertele-Xii 5y ago
  All Russian claims should be completely dismissed. Every single thing they've published about the attack so far has been proven lies.
  - halfdan 5y ago
    To be fair that should count for both sides. Everything should be taken with a grain of salt. I, for one, have a hard time believing the 4k Russian casualties claimed by Ukraine.
    - oneoff786 5y ago
      Why? It seems in line with everything. The chechens retreat immediately because they’re drone striked with no support. The major cities repel all attacks. Entire paratrooper planes shot down.
- tim333 5y ago
  Air superiority is "a larger/better air force than one's enemies". Yeah sure - Ukraine isn't going to be bombing Moscow any time soon. It doesn't mean they don't have missiles to shoot down Russian aircraft though.
tguvot 5y ago
Air war doesn't really go unless you mean TU160 shooting cruise missles from far away. In reality Ukraine got a bunch of stingers in last few months. It seems to use it rather effectively to bring down planes and helicopters (saw today at morning video of couple of russian planes shot down). Also russia failed to knock off air defenses. Additionally there is a bunch of BUK/Panzir systems that russian solders left on a roads (saw a few videos) that probably will be repurposed And last point, russian air force it's not exactly modern air force with guided bombs. It's just good old carpet bombing
- AtlasBarfed 5y ago
  Your last point surprises me. Aren't they one of the few remaining "Nth generation" fighter supply countries? I get they won't have all the bells and whistles of the US, but surely they have approximations of JDAM-type munitions, certainly laser guided bombs? That's 1990s tech for the US. Russia should have a "modern air force" for some approximation of "modern". If they don't, well, this is a bizarre offensive. I've read that Putin looks like he's aged 10 years in the last year or so, and people speculating he has cancer. This offensive seems poorly timed, rushed, and foolish. Like a dying autocrat's last stab.
  - tguvot 5y ago
    >Aren't they one of the few remaining "Nth generation" fighter supply countries? boutique models :) Also if you will check news carefully, they don't really sell anything to anybody >but surely they have approximations of JDAM-type munitions, certainly laser guided bombs? probably have some limited quantity. Like 1/10th of what Israel has, in best case. They simply do not have tech or manufacturing capability to mass produce stuff. Most of things is for show. Navigators on their strategic bombers use scale ruler (there was on russian news segment about military greatness of TU160 and they by accident showed it)
everfrustrated 5y ago
I'm no expert, but I suspect tanks work better on frozen ground than muddy ground.
- AtlasBarfed 5y ago
  I can see that, basically a blitzkrieg. But if it doesn't work, you have an invading army bogged down surrounded by a population that's getting armed to the teeth and hates you, and every motion/position/point of rest is watched and communicated. One of the tricks of an army besieging something is to constantly attack and not let the defenders rest. I would say with good internet intelligence and a very motivated and armed populace, insurgency could do the opposite to the russians here: deny them sleep, deny them warmth, and destroy their ability to fight. That's not just "bad morale": bad morale is a rational influence on conscious thought. With enough sleep deprivation there is no military discipline, no will to fight or follow orders. If you are a defender with the back against the wall, that can strangely motivate you. If you're a Russian young adult freezing in the cold and pissed off over an obviously frivolous war, it makes for despair. If the Ukraine and NATO were smart, they'd setup and advertise a POW camp in Greece on the beach. Surrender? We're sending you to a vacation. Ukraine is a weird situation. They are RIGHT NEXT DOOR to the EU. This isn't like supplying Afghanistan rebels from 4000 miles away. Russia has no idea what resources will be supplied from the EU, what capabilities will be granted on any given day. When will the US start providing drones? Will the US supply a huge drone fleet remotely operated from the US, and conduct night bombing operations when it is daytime in the US? Then just hand off daytime operations to the EU? If the US/EU do that with sufficient numbers of drones, then conventional air superiority (my fighters are unthreatened) doesn't protect the ground troops, and the ground troops are toast.

kumarvvr 5y ago

> I don't think there will be any concerns with blowback terrorism by equipping the hell out of the Ukrainian army and volunteers/populace This is an important consideration. Already, EU is not reluctant to pour weapons into the region.

PickledHotdog 5y ago
That they're supplying weapons and vehicles for the first time speaks volumes. Germany reverses its "no lethal aid" policy and Sweden and Finland talk about getting closer to, if not joining, NATO. Putin seems to have galvanized the rest of Europe against him. I doubt that's what he wanted.
- hypertele-Xii 5y ago
  Finland is on a fast-track to joining NATO now, a referendum immediately collected the required signatures and will now be brought to parliament. Also Finland gave permission for Germany to supply some cannons to Ukraine, and Finnish news said we also donate 2000 combat helmets and vests and two field hospitals.
  - HWR_14 5y ago
    Finland may ask for admittance, but is there any evidence NATO will let them in? After all, Ukraine also asked for admittance.
    - tim333 5y ago
      Finland would be let in. Ukraine was disqualified by already being in military disputes over Donbass and other stuff. I'm not sure Finland joining would make any practical difference - it would be mostly symbolic. NATO is basically limited to peaceful democracies. Turkey was a bit of an edge case.
- BongoMcCat 5y ago
  sweden decided to send weapons yesterday (sunday) 5000 AT4 and some other stuff. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AT4 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AT4 Unfortunately no NLAWS. =( edit: source (in swedish): https://www.dn.se/sverige/sverige-skickar-militart-stod-till-ukraina/ https://www.dn.se/sverige/sverige-skickar-militart-stod-till...

infini8 5y ago

Russia just now is claiming air superiority. How much of that is propaganda to bolster spirits of ground troops is questionable. https://twitter.com/afp/status/1498196443865452545?s=21 https://twitter.com/afp/status/1498196443865452545?s=21

javier2 5y ago
Ukraine basically had zero air presence to begin with.
hypertele-Xii 5y ago
All Russian claims should be completely dismissed. Every single thing they've published about the attack so far has been proven lies.
- halfdan 5y ago
  To be fair that should count for both sides. Everything should be taken with a grain of salt. I, for one, have a hard time believing the 4k Russian casualties claimed by Ukraine.
  - oneoff786 5y ago
    Why? It seems in line with everything. The chechens retreat immediately because they’re drone striked with no support. The major cities repel all attacks. Entire paratrooper planes shot down.
tim333 5y ago
Air superiority is "a larger/better air force than one's enemies". Yeah sure - Ukraine isn't going to be bombing Moscow any time soon. It doesn't mean they don't have missiles to shoot down Russian aircraft though.

tguvot 5y ago

Air war doesn't really go unless you mean TU160 shooting cruise missles from far away. In reality Ukraine got a bunch of stingers in last few months. It seems to use it rather effectively to bring down planes and helicopters (saw today at morning video of couple of russian planes shot down). Also russia failed to knock off air defenses. Additionally there is a bunch of BUK/Panzir systems that russian solders left on a roads (saw a few videos) that probably will be repurposed And last point, russian air force it's not exactly modern air force with guided bombs. It's just good old carpet bombing

AtlasBarfed 5y ago
Your last point surprises me. Aren't they one of the few remaining "Nth generation" fighter supply countries? I get they won't have all the bells and whistles of the US, but surely they have approximations of JDAM-type munitions, certainly laser guided bombs? That's 1990s tech for the US. Russia should have a "modern air force" for some approximation of "modern". If they don't, well, this is a bizarre offensive. I've read that Putin looks like he's aged 10 years in the last year or so, and people speculating he has cancer. This offensive seems poorly timed, rushed, and foolish. Like a dying autocrat's last stab.
- tguvot 5y ago
  >Aren't they one of the few remaining "Nth generation" fighter supply countries? boutique models :) Also if you will check news carefully, they don't really sell anything to anybody >but surely they have approximations of JDAM-type munitions, certainly laser guided bombs? probably have some limited quantity. Like 1/10th of what Israel has, in best case. They simply do not have tech or manufacturing capability to mass produce stuff. Most of things is for show. Navigators on their strategic bombers use scale ruler (there was on russian news segment about military greatness of TU160 and they by accident showed it)

everfrustrated 5y ago

I'm no expert, but I suspect tanks work better on frozen ground than muddy ground.

AtlasBarfed 5y ago
I can see that, basically a blitzkrieg. But if it doesn't work, you have an invading army bogged down surrounded by a population that's getting armed to the teeth and hates you, and every motion/position/point of rest is watched and communicated. One of the tricks of an army besieging something is to constantly attack and not let the defenders rest. I would say with good internet intelligence and a very motivated and armed populace, insurgency could do the opposite to the russians here: deny them sleep, deny them warmth, and destroy their ability to fight. That's not just "bad morale": bad morale is a rational influence on conscious thought. With enough sleep deprivation there is no military discipline, no will to fight or follow orders. If you are a defender with the back against the wall, that can strangely motivate you. If you're a Russian young adult freezing in the cold and pissed off over an obviously frivolous war, it makes for despair. If the Ukraine and NATO were smart, they'd setup and advertise a POW camp in Greece on the beach. Surrender? We're sending you to a vacation. Ukraine is a weird situation. They are RIGHT NEXT DOOR to the EU. This isn't like supplying Afghanistan rebels from 4000 miles away. Russia has no idea what resources will be supplied from the EU, what capabilities will be granted on any given day. When will the US start providing drones? Will the US supply a huge drone fleet remotely operated from the US, and conduct night bombing operations when it is daytime in the US? Then just hand off daytime operations to the EU? If the US/EU do that with sufficient numbers of drones, then conventional air superiority (my fighters are unthreatened) doesn't protect the ground troops, and the ground troops are toast.