6 ms·

Russia has no choice but to go all in with a massive ground presence and air control. This is going to lead to excessive costs and crippling of the economy, es

Russia has no choice but to go all in with a massive ground presence and air control. This is going to lead to excessive costs and crippling of the economy, especially with the sanctions. The televised drama about Putin ordering special alert for nuclear facilities is a signal that he is getting desperate. Either he was misled by yes men (most likely) or given false hopes by in-competent generals (also likely) or both. With present successes, it is not sufficient to only have more troops on ground. An urban insurgency will bleed Russia for years. When the people, lead by a charismatic leader showing extraordinary courage and resolve taste the motivation and identify Putin as aggressor, the war will be fought with will power. And already, Putin has come out weak when compared to Zelensky. History will remember the hero who stood up to the tyranny of Putin and his legacy is forever tarnished. Not a good closing chapter, Putin.

sharken 5y ago
Not a good closing chapter indeed. Even if Russia capture population centers, it will not stop the currently increasing number of sanctions. Neither will installing a puppet regime, that will be seen as almost worse than an invasion. There will never be any participation in sports as long as this invasion stands, nor will there be any travel abroad for the common Russian citizen. It's very hard to see what Putin can do to escape this situation, except withdraw from Ukraine. This will not be the legacy that Putin hoped for.
- kumarvvr 5y ago
  > Neither will installing a puppet regime This has already failed previously. No doubt it will not hold now, after the invasion.
AtlasBarfed 5y ago
IMO this will make-or-break based on air superiority. Impression #1: The Ukrainian population is VERY MOTIVATED. Impression #2: The West will supply Ukraine's population with as much infantry firepower (TOW, MANPAD, etc) as they need. As the days go on and military supplies flood into the Ukraine from the west, resistance will increase. Helicopters and tanks will take heavy, expensive, demoralizing losses against well coordinated anti-armor infantry defense forces. I also think the Ukrainian population will toughen and get trained/experienced in warfare quickly. Potentially Russia is training multiple millions of soldiers on the Ukrainian side with this attack, and forming a national identity, pride, and will to fight. The only Russian trump card in those situations is air power. I don't think this is like Afghanistan or the Iraq/Syria smorgasborg. Ukraine is THE buffer state between Europe and Russia. They are fairly westernized. I don't think there will be any concerns with blowback terrorism by equipping the hell out of the Ukrainian army and volunteers/populace. I don't think there are nearly as many policy/cultural concerns about supplying serious infantry weapons to the Ukraine. Even if all of Ukraine's airfields are compromised, likely Ukraine can continue air operations from Romania and the like. Would the West supply Ukraine with replacement air force? Uh, yeah. Russia had two military hopes: 1) very fast ground total victory (doubt it at this point, why did Russia attack in winter? Because they could get a quick victory they hoped? Even Russian soldiers will have lower morale in winter operations.) 2) win air superiority to enable a ground victory long enough to get puppet regime in and the West gives up support. I think this is where we are now, and I have NO IDEA how the air war is going.
- kumarvvr 5y ago
  > I don't think there will be any concerns with blowback terrorism by equipping the hell out of the Ukrainian army and volunteers/populace This is an important consideration. Already, EU is not reluctant to pour weapons into the region.
  - PickledHotdog 5y ago
    That they're supplying weapons and vehicles for the first time speaks volumes. Germany reverses its "no lethal aid" policy and Sweden and Finland talk about getting closer to, if not joining, NATO. Putin seems to have galvanized the rest of Europe against him. I doubt that's what he wanted.
    - hypertele-Xii 5y ago
      Finland is on a fast-track to joining NATO now, a referendum immediately collected the required signatures and will now be brought to parliament. Also Finland gave permission for Germany to supply some cannons to Ukraine, and Finnish news said we also donate 2000 combat helmets and vests and two field hospitals.
      - HWR_14 5y ago
        Finland may ask for admittance, but is there any evidence NATO will let them in? After all, Ukraine also asked for admittance.
        tim333 5y ago
        Finland would be let in. Ukraine was disqualified by already being in military disputes over Donbass and other stuff. I'm not sure Finland joining would make any practical difference - it would be mostly symbolic. NATO is basically limited to peaceful democracies. Turkey was a bit of an edge case.
    - BongoMcCat 5y ago
      sweden decided to send weapons yesterday (sunday) 5000 AT4 and some other stuff. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AT4 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AT4 Unfortunately no NLAWS. =( edit: source (in swedish): https://www.dn.se/sverige/sverige-skickar-militart-stod-till-ukraina/ https://www.dn.se/sverige/sverige-skickar-militart-stod-till...
jeffrallen 5y ago
> closing chapter I wonder if Putin knows he's terminally ill and is just burning it all down because he's a madman. Brain tumor? Pancreatic cancer? (Why not both?)
- 01100011 5y ago
  Weird, I was wondering the same thing today. This action seems like a hail mary intended to secure a legacy.
  - Azsy 5y ago
    There is certainly a factor of ego at play, but the more obvious reason is that Russia will fail both economically and strategically if Ukraine integrates with Europe, and the demography of Russia won't allow them to fight a human war within the decade.
- johnny22 5y ago
  the rumor i heard is MS.
- tguvot 5y ago
  him been terminally ill, been circulating for a bunch of years. but plan was to get into history books as great unifier of russia that brought all the misplaced and mislead countries back

sharken 5y ago

Not a good closing chapter indeed. Even if Russia capture population centers, it will not stop the currently increasing number of sanctions. Neither will installing a puppet regime, that will be seen as almost worse than an invasion. There will never be any participation in sports as long as this invasion stands, nor will there be any travel abroad for the common Russian citizen. It's very hard to see what Putin can do to escape this situation, except withdraw from Ukraine. This will not be the legacy that Putin hoped for.

kumarvvr 5y ago
> Neither will installing a puppet regime This has already failed previously. No doubt it will not hold now, after the invasion.

AtlasBarfed 5y ago

IMO this will make-or-break based on air superiority. Impression #1: The Ukrainian population is VERY MOTIVATED. Impression #2: The West will supply Ukraine's population with as much infantry firepower (TOW, MANPAD, etc) as they need. As the days go on and military supplies flood into the Ukraine from the west, resistance will increase. Helicopters and tanks will take heavy, expensive, demoralizing losses against well coordinated anti-armor infantry defense forces. I also think the Ukrainian population will toughen and get trained/experienced in warfare quickly. Potentially Russia is training multiple millions of soldiers on the Ukrainian side with this attack, and forming a national identity, pride, and will to fight. The only Russian trump card in those situations is air power. I don't think this is like Afghanistan or the Iraq/Syria smorgasborg. Ukraine is THE buffer state between Europe and Russia. They are fairly westernized. I don't think there will be any concerns with blowback terrorism by equipping the hell out of the Ukrainian army and volunteers/populace. I don't think there are nearly as many policy/cultural concerns about supplying serious infantry weapons to the Ukraine. Even if all of Ukraine's airfields are compromised, likely Ukraine can continue air operations from Romania and the like. Would the West supply Ukraine with replacement air force? Uh, yeah. Russia had two military hopes: 1) very fast ground total victory (doubt it at this point, why did Russia attack in winter? Because they could get a quick victory they hoped? Even Russian soldiers will have lower morale in winter operations.) 2) win air superiority to enable a ground victory long enough to get puppet regime in and the West gives up support. I think this is where we are now, and I have NO IDEA how the air war is going.

kumarvvr 5y ago
> I don't think there will be any concerns with blowback terrorism by equipping the hell out of the Ukrainian army and volunteers/populace This is an important consideration. Already, EU is not reluctant to pour weapons into the region.
- PickledHotdog 5y ago
  That they're supplying weapons and vehicles for the first time speaks volumes. Germany reverses its "no lethal aid" policy and Sweden and Finland talk about getting closer to, if not joining, NATO. Putin seems to have galvanized the rest of Europe against him. I doubt that's what he wanted.
  - hypertele-Xii 5y ago
    Finland is on a fast-track to joining NATO now, a referendum immediately collected the required signatures and will now be brought to parliament. Also Finland gave permission for Germany to supply some cannons to Ukraine, and Finnish news said we also donate 2000 combat helmets and vests and two field hospitals.
    - HWR_14 5y ago
      Finland may ask for admittance, but is there any evidence NATO will let them in? After all, Ukraine also asked for admittance.
      - tim333 5y ago
        Finland would be let in. Ukraine was disqualified by already being in military disputes over Donbass and other stuff. I'm not sure Finland joining would make any practical difference - it would be mostly symbolic. NATO is basically limited to peaceful democracies. Turkey was a bit of an edge case.
  - BongoMcCat 5y ago
    sweden decided to send weapons yesterday (sunday) 5000 AT4 and some other stuff. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AT4 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AT4 Unfortunately no NLAWS. =( edit: source (in swedish): https://www.dn.se/sverige/sverige-skickar-militart-stod-till-ukraina/ https://www.dn.se/sverige/sverige-skickar-militart-stod-till...

jeffrallen 5y ago

> closing chapter I wonder if Putin knows he's terminally ill and is just burning it all down because he's a madman. Brain tumor? Pancreatic cancer? (Why not both?)

01100011 5y ago
Weird, I was wondering the same thing today. This action seems like a hail mary intended to secure a legacy.
- Azsy 5y ago
  There is certainly a factor of ego at play, but the more obvious reason is that Russia will fail both economically and strategically if Ukraine integrates with Europe, and the demography of Russia won't allow them to fight a human war within the decade.
johnny22 5y ago
the rumor i heard is MS.
tguvot 5y ago
him been terminally ill, been circulating for a bunch of years. but plan was to get into history books as great unifier of russia that brought all the misplaced and mislead countries back