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And funny how crypto markets have not realized this at all yet e.g. https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_RUB https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_RUB - i would
by eifec 5y ago
And funny how crypto markets have not realized this at all yet e.g. https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_RUB https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_RUB - i would have thought with 24/7 trading (unlike futures which take a break for the weekend), they'd be leading indicators
- paulryanrogers 5y agoCould it be offset by increased demand?
- gruez 5y agoIncreased demand for crypto? If anything that would make BTC prices (denominated in RUB) shoot up.
- 323 5y agoThe liquidity in this market is tiny: volume of $10 million in the last 24 hour.
- cliftonk 5y agoAny diff in that price vs spot presents an arbitrage opportunity, so price should still be close to accurate.
- 323 5y agoThis is a unique situation. Spot is closed, you are looking at CME futures, which would not usually move since the underlying spot market is closed. So few people capable of doing this arbitrage would bother.
- kasey_junk 5y agoThere is no such thing as a fx spot market. All fx is done directly with the counterparty. That said most of those counter parties are closed because they trade in Europe & the US.
- darksaints 5y agoNah, liquidity is too low. Spreads will kill almost all arbitrage opportunities.
- lovingCranberry 5y ago
- newsclues 5y agoIs that abnormally low? Lack of monetization of cybercrime as hackers work for the state?
- intunderflow 5y agoGreat chance for some Arbitrage there (buy rubles with USD, use to buy BTC there, cash straight back out to USD) I would do it but I expect I'd be beaten to it with how long it would take to open an account at Binance
- 323 5y agoWhere do you buy the rubles from, all forex brokers announced that they are suspending ruble trading for the moment.
- tempestn 5y agoExactly, and that's why the apparent discrepancy is there. Pretty much any time there's an apparent large arbitrage opportunity one will find that there's a barrier (or significant cost) to actually executing it, or it already would have been arbitraged away.
- smabie 5y agoGood luck actually executing that trade
- jacquesm 5y agoI don't think executing the trade will be all that hard, the settlement could be though.
- jacquesm 5y agoIf you want to buy rubles with USD how do you propose to do so without kayaking your way to Russia first?
- intunderflow 5y agoFind an answer to that question to collect a tidy profit ;)
- UnpossibleJim 5y ago
- credit_guy 5y agoMaybe the crypto markets have already figured out that in order for sanctions to work, crypto needs to be banned, and the Fed is most likely already working on figuring out the parameters of the ban.
- glerk 5y ago> crypto needs to be banned Genuine question: why would I fight to defend the “feee world” if at the end of the day, no matter the people in charge, I have no freedom?
- brandon272 5y agoCryptocurrency ban != having no freedom
- neoromantique 5y agoIt does however contribute to that, tbh. Especially with current govt. track record.
- landemva 5y agoCrypto math is free speech. Pres. Clinton lost that battle in '90s.
- ceejayoz 5y agoDoes a ban on dumping motor oil in the river mean you "have no freedom"? Is it possible that a "free world" may still have some restrictions on actions that have impact beyond the individual making them?
- glerk 5y agoHow is owning and trading cryptocurrency akin to dumping oil into a river? That’s a weird analogy. Obviously, the river is a public good that I share with others, it is not mine to pollute. Banning cryptocurrency is not just “some restriction”. It is an authoritarian violation of my property rights.
- mbreese 5y agoYeah, you should look at that chart again with less than a 1day view. The inflection is pretty easy to spot, and it’s only getting started. Yes, small sample size and small volume, but there was a clear shift over the past few days. For all of the post-fiat arguments for crypto, this will have an effect in crypto markets as well. I wouldn’t be surprised if this causes a new round of regulation as well.
- XorNot 5y agoIt's simpler then that: you currently can't trade things in and out of Russia, and can't turn rubles into other currencies: who outside of Russia wants to trade Bitcoin for Rubles?
- mrpopo 5y agoAny wealthy person who has assets in Russia and outside of Russia could take advantage of this situation.
- jacquesm 5y agoI can think of several ways to do that, but they would require a very large sink or source depending on which way things go and you may very well end up holding the bag if the other parties are better at assessing risks in a very volatile situation than you are.
- XorNot 5y agoHow? Again: who internationally would want to give up Bitcoins for Rubles, when you could instead use them on literally anything else in the world. There's no expectation that Russian currency will go up in value in the near future, and definitely no expectation or even legal means to trade physical property.
- kumarvvr 5y agoI really don't understand how numbers in computer systems are affected by real world events. At-least stocks have assets and cash flows linked to them. What does crypto have? Crypto is pure pricing.
- fastball 5y agoWell if you have someone that thinks their money in RUB might go way down they might want to exit into a cryptocurrency which isn't controlled by fiat. Demand goes up, supply stays the same, price goes up.
- femiagbabiaka 5y agoIt’s all pure pricing at some level
- kumarvvr 5y agoYes, but with capital markets, there are real world assets anchoring the stock market. With crypto, the whole cycle is pure pricing. Say a bank converts crypto to money, the bank has no other way to use the crypto, other than selling it back on the exchange, presumably to other retail "investors" or other banks. With no asset actually anchoring it, a crypto is an extremely weak pricing product that moves with sentiments, emotions and feelings.