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Russia-Ukraine Warning Update: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment February 27

94 points by bartimus 5y ago

ukraineally 5y ago
Nothing much changed today. The russian special forces are getting wrecked and we knew the reg force troops would convoy behind. The reg forces will take tremendous losses against general mobilization. Their morale is bad now? oh man... Dare I say, Russia is losing this? The Russian troops are much trashier than expected and/or there's some serious proxy war going on right now. Zelensky is for sure being coached by some serious folks. Today I saw a ton of russian propaganda that didn't even make any sense. It makes me think Russia was given some pretty serious false impressions about what they started. When the aggressor starts talking peace after only a few days of complete failure... They screwed up pretty big and they know it.
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  Both Western governments and private parties have been publicly showing extraordinary amounts of intelligence on Russia troop movements, disposition, and likely intentions, and I can only imagine that that Ukraine is getting much more than what is public. Limiting one side’s ability to generate surprise really shifts the balance.
  - ukraineally 5y ago
    >Both Western governments and private parties have been publicly showing extraordinary amounts of intelligence on Russia troop movements, disposition, and likely intentions, and I can only imagine that that Ukraine is getting much more than what is public. Limiting one side’s ability to generate surprise really shifts the balance. Oh ya, drones, awacs, satellites. Every step by every russian solider is recorded. Whereas Russia has to track literally everyone? General mobilization means everyone is your enemy. Then you have the simple reality that there is no doubt a very significant proxy war going on. Russia can't even admit to this or tell the troops because it would destroy their morale. Behind every bush is a navy seal... id shit my pants as well.
    - mrandish 5y ago
      > the simple reality that there is no doubt a very significant proxy war going on. Are you saying there are U.S. military combat forces actively engaged on the ground inside Ukraine? I find this extremely difficult to believe. I could believe that there are a handful of U.S. intelligence advisors relaying satellite comms inside Ukrainian military HQ. It's also plausible that there are a small number of private contractors (ala Blackwater) on the ground in Ukraine. Do you have any evidence to support active combat engagement of U.S. military forces?
      - jack_squat 5y ago
        Proxy war means no boots on the ground. The two of you agree.
        mrandish 5y ago
        I was confused by the poster's comment: > Behind every bush is a navy seal... Which seems to imply U.S. military personnel engaging on the ground.
        salawat 5y ago
        No, it implies every bush could be concealing very bad news given info asymmetry.
        dragonwriter 5y ago
        > Proxy war means no boots on the ground. The two of you agree To be fair, most actual “proxy wars” (e.g., during the Cold War) have also involved covertly-inserted forces from whichever (including both, where that was the case) of the two superpowers wasn't overtly involved.
    - FpUser 5y ago
      >" Russia can't even admit to this or tell the troops because it would destroy their morale. " From what I saw their morale is pretty much destroyed already. It was probably never there to begin with except maybe special forces.
  - theonething 5y ago
    I wonder if the US could or does conduct direct drone warfare in the Ukraine in secret. With strong end to end encryption, it doesn't seem like it'd be that difficult. The Ukraine could just claim they are operating US made drones.
    - TowerTall 5y ago
      I hope not. I do not like the prospect of a Russian vs USA war and that we would have if the US do that.
      - theonething 5y ago
        I certainly don't want that either. That's why I think if the US is directly involved, it would be in secret.
  - baybal2 5y ago
    > Both Western governments and private parties have been publicly showing extraordinary amounts of intelligence on Russia troop movements, disposition, and likely intentions, and I can only imagine that that Ukraine is getting much more than what is public. TikTok is world's biggest intel dragnet. On Twitter, I see a vid of the column from TikTak, and 1-2 hours after, of its destruction. No military in the world has anything as powerful.
  - BbzzbB 5y ago
    Something I can't wrap my head around is why is there even Internet in Ukraine still? Shouldn't the first step of Russian OPs have been to take out telecom? Phones went out in a hurry in ex-Yu (per my parents), but in Ukraine there's still widespread "phones on steroid" to live stream/comment the whole thing every step of the way. Is it because they're hard to take out or is it a strategic decision? I was initially thinking it must be a voluntary omission, some kind of psyop to get Ukrainians a false sense of security/superiority before Russia shows their actual hand. But as this goes on and it seems Russia's military is not as strong or tactical as expected* the more I just find it puzzling. *A sentiment I get namely due to info from the thread below, my TLDR being Russia's army is green or only faced weak opposition, not intrinsically motivated and used to doing special ops not wars while Ukrainian's army is battle hardened (6x 60k served in Donbass) and defending their homes. To be noted, if true it doesn't make the situation less volatile - a losing and cornered paper tiger with access thermobaric weapons or tactical nukes seems most dangerous to me. Or not, but if it is I'm getting nervous we (West/NATO) removed them the option to retreat by obliterating their financial system. 0: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1497993363076915204 https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1497993363076915204
    - halfdan 5y ago
      Starlink is available: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/27/elon-musk-starlink-internet-service-ukraine-russian-invasion https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/27/elon-musk-starlink-... Not sure how easily accessible this is to the average citizen but it surely makes it hard to shut down the internet entirely.
      - HWR_14 5y ago
        It's unclear if star link is really available yet. As I understand it, the terrestrial stations were just shipped out over the weekend. Hopefully they can start using them soon. I doubt the average citizen will be able to use them, as I'm sure the military uses will have first dibs.
    - tim333 5y ago
      The financial sanctions can be dropped if the Russians go home. One trouble with cutting internet etc. is Ukraine borders Poland which Russia can't easily touch due to NATO.
- axiosgunnar 5y ago
  > Today I saw a ton of russian propaganda that didn't even make any sense. I‘m curious, like what for example?
  - t3po7re5 5y ago
    RT and Sputnik usually have a good amount since they are sponsored by the Russian state
  - tguvot 5y ago
    RIA news has article that ukranian nationalist-nazi militia executing ukranian military personal that refuses to fight russian army
- poisonarena 5y ago
  Did you read the report that you posted? Russia is not losing, they are behind, and probably planned poorly/underestimated the fighting but unless things drastically change with NATO, they will cut off large parts of ukrainian defenses and eventually take the population centers. Its crazy I want Ukraine to hold out, I want Ukraine to drive them out, and if you look at reddit, and some twitter accounts you might even think Ukraine is winning, but I don't think thats whats happening.
  - leobg 5y ago
    You mean a bit like when you read the New York Times and thought Hillary was winning?
  - Azsy 5y ago
    You're right that the hopeful propaganda is giving a distorted view of the dire situation. Combined with the fact that the Russians don't carry their phones to show their victories. Apparently RT expected to announce the capture of Kyiv on the morning of the 26's. Every moment Kyiv holds is an indication by what scale Putin's party has miscalculated.
    - poisonarena 5y ago
      I think that propaganda is important, but I also trust this report as a fair assessment of what is actually happening
- cft 5y ago
  Russia's military is acting restrained: no carpet bombing, no massive rocket strikes on population centers. I have no doubt that they will eventually capture their targets, it will just take time. Partisan war follows however, and sanctions remain in place.
  - tim333 5y ago
    They may have some problems in getting less restrained though in that the west would probably up the level of support to Ukraine. You can't carpet bomb if all your bombers are shot down.
kumarvvr 5y ago
Russia has no choice but to go all in with a massive ground presence and air control. This is going to lead to excessive costs and crippling of the economy, especially with the sanctions. The televised drama about Putin ordering special alert for nuclear facilities is a signal that he is getting desperate. Either he was misled by yes men (most likely) or given false hopes by in-competent generals (also likely) or both. With present successes, it is not sufficient to only have more troops on ground. An urban insurgency will bleed Russia for years. When the people, lead by a charismatic leader showing extraordinary courage and resolve taste the motivation and identify Putin as aggressor, the war will be fought with will power. And already, Putin has come out weak when compared to Zelensky. History will remember the hero who stood up to the tyranny of Putin and his legacy is forever tarnished. Not a good closing chapter, Putin.
- sharken 5y ago
  Not a good closing chapter indeed. Even if Russia capture population centers, it will not stop the currently increasing number of sanctions. Neither will installing a puppet regime, that will be seen as almost worse than an invasion. There will never be any participation in sports as long as this invasion stands, nor will there be any travel abroad for the common Russian citizen. It's very hard to see what Putin can do to escape this situation, except withdraw from Ukraine. This will not be the legacy that Putin hoped for.
  - kumarvvr 5y ago
    > Neither will installing a puppet regime This has already failed previously. No doubt it will not hold now, after the invasion.
- AtlasBarfed 5y ago
  IMO this will make-or-break based on air superiority. Impression #1: The Ukrainian population is VERY MOTIVATED. Impression #2: The West will supply Ukraine's population with as much infantry firepower (TOW, MANPAD, etc) as they need. As the days go on and military supplies flood into the Ukraine from the west, resistance will increase. Helicopters and tanks will take heavy, expensive, demoralizing losses against well coordinated anti-armor infantry defense forces. I also think the Ukrainian population will toughen and get trained/experienced in warfare quickly. Potentially Russia is training multiple millions of soldiers on the Ukrainian side with this attack, and forming a national identity, pride, and will to fight. The only Russian trump card in those situations is air power. I don't think this is like Afghanistan or the Iraq/Syria smorgasborg. Ukraine is THE buffer state between Europe and Russia. They are fairly westernized. I don't think there will be any concerns with blowback terrorism by equipping the hell out of the Ukrainian army and volunteers/populace. I don't think there are nearly as many policy/cultural concerns about supplying serious infantry weapons to the Ukraine. Even if all of Ukraine's airfields are compromised, likely Ukraine can continue air operations from Romania and the like. Would the West supply Ukraine with replacement air force? Uh, yeah. Russia had two military hopes: 1) very fast ground total victory (doubt it at this point, why did Russia attack in winter? Because they could get a quick victory they hoped? Even Russian soldiers will have lower morale in winter operations.) 2) win air superiority to enable a ground victory long enough to get puppet regime in and the West gives up support. I think this is where we are now, and I have NO IDEA how the air war is going.
indemnity 5y ago
Why hasn’t Russia used the thermobaric weapons yet?
- poisonarena 5y ago
  they did, in the outskirts of kharkiv
  - jondwillis 5y ago
    I saw some videos but am still not sure if they’re confirmed.
    - poisonarena 5y ago
      getting downvoted, but here is another vid of it https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498537119467327488?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1498537119467327488%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Fliveupdate%2F18hnzysb1elcs%2FLiveUpdate_cb0ee32c-9925-11ec-ac4b-7653b25b2f7c%2F0 https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498537119467327488?ref_...
- rdtsc 5y ago
  The propaganda message to his citizens is “we are here to ensure peace”. So until his helpers rewrite the message, they are acting more restrained. But he is already preparing to apply the Grozny playbook where the city was practically razed to the ground. His excuse will be something like “we warned them and they still hid amongst the civilians, it’s their own fault” Mentioning the nuclear threat shows some desperation. He is probably seeing some internal pressure from his corrupt business buddies. Those thermobaric munitions also do a nice job exploding before being launched when hit by a drone. They clear out quite a large group of invaders with one well placed shot.
  - sharken 5y ago
    No way is Putin going to raze a Ukrainian city like that. It will lead to neutral countries such as China and Brazil to actively isolate Russia even more. And the empty threats towards Sweden and Finland are now just that. Germany is increasing the military defense budget so it will become larger than the Russian. https://m.dw.com/en/germany-commits-100-billion-to-defense-spending/a-60933724 https://m.dw.com/en/germany-commits-100-billion-to-defense-s...
PickledHotdog 5y ago
Apparently the leader of the Donetsk separatist region announced a suspension of mobilisations recently, saying no more troops are required. And odd declaration in the middle of a war. Either they've realised they're screwed or something unforeseen is about to happen. On the whole, I think Putin has been reading his own press a bit - thinking the Ukrainians would roll over and in parts welcome his 'liberating' force, but instead he's getting his nose bloodied by a well armed, well trained, well coached, resilient populace and army. He's being absolutely embarrassed on the world stage by a comedian. It must be killing him.
- tguvot 5y ago
  mobilization was forced. people were literally dragged from streets. obviously later they were running away from fight, because it's not their fight
tguvot 5y ago
For those wondering about what was/is Russian strategy: yesterday on a bunch of Russian media sites got auto-published and then deleted article that based on it's content was supposed to go to air as a victory lap after completion of mission: unification of Russia (Russia, Ukraine and Belarus) and solution of Ukranian question (partial translation): https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1498029060085075969 https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1498029060085075969 . This is original https://web.archive.org/web/20220226051154/https://ria.ru/20220226/rossiya-1775162336.html https://web.archive.org/web/20220226051154/https://ria.ru/20... It does look that assumption was just to march in with no or little resistance, take over entire country in 2 days as then manage area with rosgvardia. On additional note, this book supposedly popular in upper echelons of Russia and written by somebody who considered to be guru of putin. wiki article has short summary, but it's enough to see how it reflects some of the current realities (in Ukraine, Georgia, UK, USA). Wiki artcile has a good summary https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics
- ZeroGravitas 5y ago
  There was a really interesting article published here, auto-translated from Russian, written by a retired General before the invasion. He basically said, a bunch of idiots keep saying we can just walk into Ukraine with shock and awe and have it all over in hours (or less) and laid out why that is idiotic. Kind of amazing that the conversation was so public. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30489422 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30489422
  - tguvot 5y ago
    Everybody who works in big company knows how much information/details in whatever status report is getting lost by the time that it get's to C level and how much becomes beautified. Now think about system where this chain is much longer and very kleptocratic. By the time reports get "up there" they show what they are expected to show and do not reflect reality.
- officehero 5y ago
  Really hope this is true because it probably reduces risk of more violence. If Putin was convinced to carry out the operation because some war hawks said it would be a cake walk, they will now be out of favor and the more sober and calculating Putin will realize this was all a big mistake and that further attacks will just make things worse.

94 points by bartimus 5y ago

Nothing much changed today. The russian special forces are getting wrecked and we knew the reg force troops would convoy behind. The reg forces will take tremendous losses against general mobilization. Their morale is bad now? oh man... Dare I say, Russia is losing this? The Russian troops are much trashier than expected and/or there's some serious proxy war going on right now. Zelensky is for sure being coached by some serious folks. Today I saw a ton of russian propaganda that didn't even make any sense. It makes me think Russia was given some pretty serious false impressions about what they started. When the aggressor starts talking peace after only a few days of complete failure... They screwed up pretty big and they know it.

dragonwriter 5y ago
Both Western governments and private parties have been publicly showing extraordinary amounts of intelligence on Russia troop movements, disposition, and likely intentions, and I can only imagine that that Ukraine is getting much more than what is public. Limiting one side’s ability to generate surprise really shifts the balance.
- ukraineally 5y ago
  >Both Western governments and private parties have been publicly showing extraordinary amounts of intelligence on Russia troop movements, disposition, and likely intentions, and I can only imagine that that Ukraine is getting much more than what is public. Limiting one side’s ability to generate surprise really shifts the balance. Oh ya, drones, awacs, satellites. Every step by every russian solider is recorded. Whereas Russia has to track literally everyone? General mobilization means everyone is your enemy. Then you have the simple reality that there is no doubt a very significant proxy war going on. Russia can't even admit to this or tell the troops because it would destroy their morale. Behind every bush is a navy seal... id shit my pants as well.
  - mrandish 5y ago
    > the simple reality that there is no doubt a very significant proxy war going on. Are you saying there are U.S. military combat forces actively engaged on the ground inside Ukraine? I find this extremely difficult to believe. I could believe that there are a handful of U.S. intelligence advisors relaying satellite comms inside Ukrainian military HQ. It's also plausible that there are a small number of private contractors (ala Blackwater) on the ground in Ukraine. Do you have any evidence to support active combat engagement of U.S. military forces?
    - jack_squat 5y ago
      Proxy war means no boots on the ground. The two of you agree.
      - mrandish 5y ago
        I was confused by the poster's comment: > Behind every bush is a navy seal... Which seems to imply U.S. military personnel engaging on the ground.
        salawat 5y ago
        No, it implies every bush could be concealing very bad news given info asymmetry.
      - dragonwriter 5y ago
        > Proxy war means no boots on the ground. The two of you agree To be fair, most actual “proxy wars” (e.g., during the Cold War) have also involved covertly-inserted forces from whichever (including both, where that was the case) of the two superpowers wasn't overtly involved.
  - FpUser 5y ago
    >" Russia can't even admit to this or tell the troops because it would destroy their morale. " From what I saw their morale is pretty much destroyed already. It was probably never there to begin with except maybe special forces.
- theonething 5y ago
  I wonder if the US could or does conduct direct drone warfare in the Ukraine in secret. With strong end to end encryption, it doesn't seem like it'd be that difficult. The Ukraine could just claim they are operating US made drones.
  - TowerTall 5y ago
    I hope not. I do not like the prospect of a Russian vs USA war and that we would have if the US do that.
    - theonething 5y ago
      I certainly don't want that either. That's why I think if the US is directly involved, it would be in secret.
- baybal2 5y ago
  > Both Western governments and private parties have been publicly showing extraordinary amounts of intelligence on Russia troop movements, disposition, and likely intentions, and I can only imagine that that Ukraine is getting much more than what is public. TikTok is world's biggest intel dragnet. On Twitter, I see a vid of the column from TikTak, and 1-2 hours after, of its destruction. No military in the world has anything as powerful.
- BbzzbB 5y ago
  Something I can't wrap my head around is why is there even Internet in Ukraine still? Shouldn't the first step of Russian OPs have been to take out telecom? Phones went out in a hurry in ex-Yu (per my parents), but in Ukraine there's still widespread "phones on steroid" to live stream/comment the whole thing every step of the way. Is it because they're hard to take out or is it a strategic decision? I was initially thinking it must be a voluntary omission, some kind of psyop to get Ukrainians a false sense of security/superiority before Russia shows their actual hand. But as this goes on and it seems Russia's military is not as strong or tactical as expected* the more I just find it puzzling. *A sentiment I get namely due to info from the thread below, my TLDR being Russia's army is green or only faced weak opposition, not intrinsically motivated and used to doing special ops not wars while Ukrainian's army is battle hardened (6x 60k served in Donbass) and defending their homes. To be noted, if true it doesn't make the situation less volatile - a losing and cornered paper tiger with access thermobaric weapons or tactical nukes seems most dangerous to me. Or not, but if it is I'm getting nervous we (West/NATO) removed them the option to retreat by obliterating their financial system. 0: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1497993363076915204 https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1497993363076915204
  - halfdan 5y ago
    Starlink is available: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/27/elon-musk-starlink-internet-service-ukraine-russian-invasion https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/27/elon-musk-starlink-... Not sure how easily accessible this is to the average citizen but it surely makes it hard to shut down the internet entirely.
    - HWR_14 5y ago
      It's unclear if star link is really available yet. As I understand it, the terrestrial stations were just shipped out over the weekend. Hopefully they can start using them soon. I doubt the average citizen will be able to use them, as I'm sure the military uses will have first dibs.
  - tim333 5y ago
    The financial sanctions can be dropped if the Russians go home. One trouble with cutting internet etc. is Ukraine borders Poland which Russia can't easily touch due to NATO.
axiosgunnar 5y ago
> Today I saw a ton of russian propaganda that didn't even make any sense. I‘m curious, like what for example?
- t3po7re5 5y ago
  RT and Sputnik usually have a good amount since they are sponsored by the Russian state
- tguvot 5y ago
  RIA news has article that ukranian nationalist-nazi militia executing ukranian military personal that refuses to fight russian army
poisonarena 5y ago
Did you read the report that you posted? Russia is not losing, they are behind, and probably planned poorly/underestimated the fighting but unless things drastically change with NATO, they will cut off large parts of ukrainian defenses and eventually take the population centers. Its crazy I want Ukraine to hold out, I want Ukraine to drive them out, and if you look at reddit, and some twitter accounts you might even think Ukraine is winning, but I don't think thats whats happening.
- leobg 5y ago
  You mean a bit like when you read the New York Times and thought Hillary was winning?
- Azsy 5y ago
  You're right that the hopeful propaganda is giving a distorted view of the dire situation. Combined with the fact that the Russians don't carry their phones to show their victories. Apparently RT expected to announce the capture of Kyiv on the morning of the 26's. Every moment Kyiv holds is an indication by what scale Putin's party has miscalculated.
  - poisonarena 5y ago
    I think that propaganda is important, but I also trust this report as a fair assessment of what is actually happening
cft 5y ago
Russia's military is acting restrained: no carpet bombing, no massive rocket strikes on population centers. I have no doubt that they will eventually capture their targets, it will just take time. Partisan war follows however, and sanctions remain in place.
- tim333 5y ago
  They may have some problems in getting less restrained though in that the west would probably up the level of support to Ukraine. You can't carpet bomb if all your bombers are shot down.

kumarvvr 5y ago

Russia has no choice but to go all in with a massive ground presence and air control. This is going to lead to excessive costs and crippling of the economy, especially with the sanctions. The televised drama about Putin ordering special alert for nuclear facilities is a signal that he is getting desperate. Either he was misled by yes men (most likely) or given false hopes by in-competent generals (also likely) or both. With present successes, it is not sufficient to only have more troops on ground. An urban insurgency will bleed Russia for years. When the people, lead by a charismatic leader showing extraordinary courage and resolve taste the motivation and identify Putin as aggressor, the war will be fought with will power. And already, Putin has come out weak when compared to Zelensky. History will remember the hero who stood up to the tyranny of Putin and his legacy is forever tarnished. Not a good closing chapter, Putin.

sharken 5y ago
Not a good closing chapter indeed. Even if Russia capture population centers, it will not stop the currently increasing number of sanctions. Neither will installing a puppet regime, that will be seen as almost worse than an invasion. There will never be any participation in sports as long as this invasion stands, nor will there be any travel abroad for the common Russian citizen. It's very hard to see what Putin can do to escape this situation, except withdraw from Ukraine. This will not be the legacy that Putin hoped for.
- kumarvvr 5y ago
  > Neither will installing a puppet regime This has already failed previously. No doubt it will not hold now, after the invasion.
AtlasBarfed 5y ago
IMO this will make-or-break based on air superiority. Impression #1: The Ukrainian population is VERY MOTIVATED. Impression #2: The West will supply Ukraine's population with as much infantry firepower (TOW, MANPAD, etc) as they need. As the days go on and military supplies flood into the Ukraine from the west, resistance will increase. Helicopters and tanks will take heavy, expensive, demoralizing losses against well coordinated anti-armor infantry defense forces. I also think the Ukrainian population will toughen and get trained/experienced in warfare quickly. Potentially Russia is training multiple millions of soldiers on the Ukrainian side with this attack, and forming a national identity, pride, and will to fight. The only Russian trump card in those situations is air power. I don't think this is like Afghanistan or the Iraq/Syria smorgasborg. Ukraine is THE buffer state between Europe and Russia. They are fairly westernized. I don't think there will be any concerns with blowback terrorism by equipping the hell out of the Ukrainian army and volunteers/populace. I don't think there are nearly as many policy/cultural concerns about supplying serious infantry weapons to the Ukraine. Even if all of Ukraine's airfields are compromised, likely Ukraine can continue air operations from Romania and the like. Would the West supply Ukraine with replacement air force? Uh, yeah. Russia had two military hopes: 1) very fast ground total victory (doubt it at this point, why did Russia attack in winter? Because they could get a quick victory they hoped? Even Russian soldiers will have lower morale in winter operations.) 2) win air superiority to enable a ground victory long enough to get puppet regime in and the West gives up support. I think this is where we are now, and I have NO IDEA how the air war is going.

indemnity 5y ago

Why hasn’t Russia used the thermobaric weapons yet?

poisonarena 5y ago
they did, in the outskirts of kharkiv
- jondwillis 5y ago
  I saw some videos but am still not sure if they’re confirmed.
  - poisonarena 5y ago
    getting downvoted, but here is another vid of it https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498537119467327488?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1498537119467327488%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Fliveupdate%2F18hnzysb1elcs%2FLiveUpdate_cb0ee32c-9925-11ec-ac4b-7653b25b2f7c%2F0 https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498537119467327488?ref_...
rdtsc 5y ago
The propaganda message to his citizens is “we are here to ensure peace”. So until his helpers rewrite the message, they are acting more restrained. But he is already preparing to apply the Grozny playbook where the city was practically razed to the ground. His excuse will be something like “we warned them and they still hid amongst the civilians, it’s their own fault” Mentioning the nuclear threat shows some desperation. He is probably seeing some internal pressure from his corrupt business buddies. Those thermobaric munitions also do a nice job exploding before being launched when hit by a drone. They clear out quite a large group of invaders with one well placed shot.
- sharken 5y ago
  No way is Putin going to raze a Ukrainian city like that. It will lead to neutral countries such as China and Brazil to actively isolate Russia even more. And the empty threats towards Sweden and Finland are now just that. Germany is increasing the military defense budget so it will become larger than the Russian. https://m.dw.com/en/germany-commits-100-billion-to-defense-spending/a-60933724 https://m.dw.com/en/germany-commits-100-billion-to-defense-s...

PickledHotdog 5y ago

Apparently the leader of the Donetsk separatist region announced a suspension of mobilisations recently, saying no more troops are required. And odd declaration in the middle of a war. Either they've realised they're screwed or something unforeseen is about to happen. On the whole, I think Putin has been reading his own press a bit - thinking the Ukrainians would roll over and in parts welcome his 'liberating' force, but instead he's getting his nose bloodied by a well armed, well trained, well coached, resilient populace and army. He's being absolutely embarrassed on the world stage by a comedian. It must be killing him.

tguvot 5y ago
mobilization was forced. people were literally dragged from streets. obviously later they were running away from fight, because it's not their fight

tguvot 5y ago

For those wondering about what was/is Russian strategy: yesterday on a bunch of Russian media sites got auto-published and then deleted article that based on it's content was supposed to go to air as a victory lap after completion of mission: unification of Russia (Russia, Ukraine and Belarus) and solution of Ukranian question (partial translation): https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1498029060085075969 https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1498029060085075969 . This is original https://web.archive.org/web/20220226051154/https://ria.ru/20220226/rossiya-1775162336.html https://web.archive.org/web/20220226051154/https://ria.ru/20... It does look that assumption was just to march in with no or little resistance, take over entire country in 2 days as then manage area with rosgvardia. On additional note, this book supposedly popular in upper echelons of Russia and written by somebody who considered to be guru of putin. wiki article has short summary, but it's enough to see how it reflects some of the current realities (in Ukraine, Georgia, UK, USA). Wiki artcile has a good summary https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics

ZeroGravitas 5y ago
There was a really interesting article published here, auto-translated from Russian, written by a retired General before the invasion. He basically said, a bunch of idiots keep saying we can just walk into Ukraine with shock and awe and have it all over in hours (or less) and laid out why that is idiotic. Kind of amazing that the conversation was so public. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30489422 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30489422
- tguvot 5y ago
  Everybody who works in big company knows how much information/details in whatever status report is getting lost by the time that it get's to C level and how much becomes beautified. Now think about system where this chain is much longer and very kleptocratic. By the time reports get "up there" they show what they are expected to show and do not reflect reality.
officehero 5y ago
Really hope this is true because it probably reduces risk of more violence. If Putin was convinced to carry out the operation because some war hawks said it would be a cake walk, they will now be out of favor and the more sober and calculating Putin will realize this was all a big mistake and that further attacks will just make things worse.