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If the troops are being kept in the dark about their location and missing, that would go a long way to explaining the abyssmal performance of the military so fa

If the troops are being kept in the dark about their location and missing, that would go a long way to explaining the abyssmal performance of the military so far. How are you meant to plan logistics in this situation? Everyone I know in russia declares virtually 0% support for this invasion. You can only hope that this is begining of the end for Putin. However one should be carefull drawing conclusions about total ineptitude of the Russian military - in a different confrontation, for instance defending Crimea, these issues might not apply.

trhway 5y ago
>the troops are being kept in the dark about their location considering that that excuse has been practiced at least since 2014, and that the soldiers have smartphones to post selfies, and after watching several of those POW videos with their canned responses, i'm convinced that it is just a trained excuse to get better treatment from Ukrainians when caught. Even any technical aspects aside. I grew up on a USSR Navy base, and we always knew who goes to fight where. And the military convoys always naturally interact with locals on their route, soldiers talk to the locals, exchange fuel for vodka/cigarettes, children come to get onto/into tanks in exchange for some small favors/goodies/etc. And to the commenter below: nobody dismantled road signs on the Russian side on the roads to Ukraine :) Btw, on Ukrainian TV - they are in much better mood today giving their military successes and corresponding Russian failures, i mean they weren't panicked or anything like that yesterday, just seriously somber, it is just today they are really having the blast - they today addressed that overall Russian people habit of playing a powerless victim of circumstances : "Next time you'd think twice about whom to choose President." (Other quotes from Ukrainian TV today - "We Christened Russia, and we're going to give it the last rites.", "To see Kiev and die. Looks like you're insisting on doing it in that your own peculiar way - well, be my guest.") And to another commenter below: >conscripts calling families telling that they are forced to sign contracts (in military operation can participate only contractors) so, they forced you to signed contract because that is the only way you can participate in military operation and are sending you on "exercises" with full battle ready hardware somewhere close to Ukraine when there is escalation in the air/news. Days later you're driving through Ukrainian villages with clear orders to shoot on Ukrainian tanks and soldiers first and like have no idea where you are and why you're there :)
- dogma1138 5y ago
  The Ukrainians have been dismantling roadsigns. Most cellphone footage seems to be from the rear lines it wouldn’t surprise me if front line troops don’t have cellphones due to opsec or can’t keep them charged or afford roaming and it seems that Russian soldiers don’t supplement their kit with offline civilian GPS units. There were also posts of the target marking kits that Russians use and they all seem to be commercial off the shelf laser beacons and reflectors. The Russian army looks more and more like it’s being supplied through Aliexpress.
- tguvot 5y ago
  smartphones were taken from troops before they were sent to ukraine (there is a bunch of stories of conscripts calling families telling that they are forced to sign contracts (in military operation can participate only contractors) and phones are taken from them. otherwise internet would have been full of russian tiktok videos . >And to the commenter below: nobody dismantled road signs on the Russian side on the roads to Ukraine Yeah, sure. It's like when you need to get to bakersfiled but the last road sign its arrow pointing to general direction of california in utah.
- ClumsyPilot 5y ago
  "the soldiers have smartphones" Surely militaties don't allow their frontline troops to have phones? That would enable Ukranian side to track and count troops and use that information for artillery strikes?
HWR_14 5y ago
> Everyone I know in russia declares virtually 0% support for this invasion. I mean, you don't have a balanced or unbiased sample. You sound like the people who are like "No person I know supported Trump." > in a different confrontation, for instance defending Crimea I'm pretty sure you meant "continuing to occupy Crimea"
- ClumsyPilot 5y ago
  > mean, you don't have a balanced or unbiased sample Well we can't exactly conduct a democratic referendum to find out, can we? There a lot of datapoint that indicate this is the case, the russian commanders being in shock when they learnt abotu the task and their concern for desertions, etc. Ofcourse I could be totally wrong, we are all couch generals here https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-60528746 https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-60528746
  - HWR_14 5y ago
    That's true. There are polling agencies who purport ti be able to handle the logistics of polling Russians. They showed Putin's approval (pre invasion) at just over 50%, which sounds plausible. The fact that it's not Crazy high made me think maybe they are getting real feedback.
dogma1138 5y ago
Russia can’t defend Crimea conventionally either at least not against NATO but that would be a nuclear trigger for them almost certainly.
- adventured 5y ago
  Seeing how the Russian army is performing so far, it's starting to make more sense why Putin constantly, oddly whips out the nuclear threat (giving off hints of serious insecurity). Turns out it's very revealing as to the state of their military, it can't properly defend itself against NATO and is badly outmatched today. China has to be seeing this and eyeing some of that sweet Russian border territory for the future.
  - blunte 5y ago
    Extrapolating from bits I've read online (which means, this is probably completely wrong... but possibly not!)... Most of Russia's income is from oil and gas. And the profits from oil and gas are received by a very small few people. Those people probably do not pay a lot of taxes. Therefore, it can be assumed that the Russian military and related systems are not well funded. Russia has for decades had a brute-force approach to military - simpler, less efficient systems which are more robust and which can be field serviced. If numbers found on the internet can be believed chuckle, in 2017 Russia spent 66 billion USD-equivalent on its military. The US spent $646 billion. Now maybe the US is much less efficient, with grifter middlemen contractors, but still... 10x the expenditures. As for China, they want the energy and mineral resources from Russia. They are treading carefully to appear supportive of Russia while not alienating the rest of the world (their major trading partners).
    - AnimalMuppet 5y ago
      I've got a suspicion that Russian military procurement has its own share of grifters. Maybe even as high as the US does. Maybe even higher.
  - oblio 5y ago
    Russia has about 145 million people. The US has about 340 million. The Russian economy is about $1.7tn and the US one is about $29tn. Yup, you read those figures right. For comparison, the USSR had 286 million people in 1989 to the US 248 million. And their GDPs were $1.7tn for Soviets (yep, same amount after 30 years of inflation, plus the Soviet one was most likely inflated...) and US about $6tn. Russia is the world's biggest banana republic. More like oil sheikdom, actually.

trhway 5y ago

>the troops are being kept in the dark about their location considering that that excuse has been practiced at least since 2014, and that the soldiers have smartphones to post selfies, and after watching several of those POW videos with their canned responses, i'm convinced that it is just a trained excuse to get better treatment from Ukrainians when caught. Even any technical aspects aside. I grew up on a USSR Navy base, and we always knew who goes to fight where. And the military convoys always naturally interact with locals on their route, soldiers talk to the locals, exchange fuel for vodka/cigarettes, children come to get onto/into tanks in exchange for some small favors/goodies/etc. And to the commenter below: nobody dismantled road signs on the Russian side on the roads to Ukraine :) Btw, on Ukrainian TV - they are in much better mood today giving their military successes and corresponding Russian failures, i mean they weren't panicked or anything like that yesterday, just seriously somber, it is just today they are really having the blast - they today addressed that overall Russian people habit of playing a powerless victim of circumstances : "Next time you'd think twice about whom to choose President." (Other quotes from Ukrainian TV today - "We Christened Russia, and we're going to give it the last rites.", "To see Kiev and die. Looks like you're insisting on doing it in that your own peculiar way - well, be my guest.") And to another commenter below: >conscripts calling families telling that they are forced to sign contracts (in military operation can participate only contractors) so, they forced you to signed contract because that is the only way you can participate in military operation and are sending you on "exercises" with full battle ready hardware somewhere close to Ukraine when there is escalation in the air/news. Days later you're driving through Ukrainian villages with clear orders to shoot on Ukrainian tanks and soldiers first and like have no idea where you are and why you're there :)

dogma1138 5y ago
The Ukrainians have been dismantling roadsigns. Most cellphone footage seems to be from the rear lines it wouldn’t surprise me if front line troops don’t have cellphones due to opsec or can’t keep them charged or afford roaming and it seems that Russian soldiers don’t supplement their kit with offline civilian GPS units. There were also posts of the target marking kits that Russians use and they all seem to be commercial off the shelf laser beacons and reflectors. The Russian army looks more and more like it’s being supplied through Aliexpress.
tguvot 5y ago
smartphones were taken from troops before they were sent to ukraine (there is a bunch of stories of conscripts calling families telling that they are forced to sign contracts (in military operation can participate only contractors) and phones are taken from them. otherwise internet would have been full of russian tiktok videos . >And to the commenter below: nobody dismantled road signs on the Russian side on the roads to Ukraine Yeah, sure. It's like when you need to get to bakersfiled but the last road sign its arrow pointing to general direction of california in utah.
ClumsyPilot 5y ago
"the soldiers have smartphones" Surely militaties don't allow their frontline troops to have phones? That would enable Ukranian side to track and count troops and use that information for artillery strikes?

HWR_14 5y ago

> Everyone I know in russia declares virtually 0% support for this invasion. I mean, you don't have a balanced or unbiased sample. You sound like the people who are like "No person I know supported Trump." > in a different confrontation, for instance defending Crimea I'm pretty sure you meant "continuing to occupy Crimea"

ClumsyPilot 5y ago
> mean, you don't have a balanced or unbiased sample Well we can't exactly conduct a democratic referendum to find out, can we? There a lot of datapoint that indicate this is the case, the russian commanders being in shock when they learnt abotu the task and their concern for desertions, etc. Ofcourse I could be totally wrong, we are all couch generals here https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-60528746 https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-60528746
- HWR_14 5y ago
  That's true. There are polling agencies who purport ti be able to handle the logistics of polling Russians. They showed Putin's approval (pre invasion) at just over 50%, which sounds plausible. The fact that it's not Crazy high made me think maybe they are getting real feedback.

dogma1138 5y ago

Russia can’t defend Crimea conventionally either at least not against NATO but that would be a nuclear trigger for them almost certainly.

adventured 5y ago
Seeing how the Russian army is performing so far, it's starting to make more sense why Putin constantly, oddly whips out the nuclear threat (giving off hints of serious insecurity). Turns out it's very revealing as to the state of their military, it can't properly defend itself against NATO and is badly outmatched today. China has to be seeing this and eyeing some of that sweet Russian border territory for the future.
- blunte 5y ago
  Extrapolating from bits I've read online (which means, this is probably completely wrong... but possibly not!)... Most of Russia's income is from oil and gas. And the profits from oil and gas are received by a very small few people. Those people probably do not pay a lot of taxes. Therefore, it can be assumed that the Russian military and related systems are not well funded. Russia has for decades had a brute-force approach to military - simpler, less efficient systems which are more robust and which can be field serviced. If numbers found on the internet can be believed chuckle, in 2017 Russia spent 66 billion USD-equivalent on its military. The US spent $646 billion. Now maybe the US is much less efficient, with grifter middlemen contractors, but still... 10x the expenditures. As for China, they want the energy and mineral resources from Russia. They are treading carefully to appear supportive of Russia while not alienating the rest of the world (their major trading partners).
  - AnimalMuppet 5y ago
    I've got a suspicion that Russian military procurement has its own share of grifters. Maybe even as high as the US does. Maybe even higher.
- oblio 5y ago
  Russia has about 145 million people. The US has about 340 million. The Russian economy is about $1.7tn and the US one is about $29tn. Yup, you read those figures right. For comparison, the USSR had 286 million people in 1989 to the US 248 million. And their GDPs were $1.7tn for Soviets (yep, same amount after 30 years of inflation, plus the Soviet one was most likely inflated...) and US about $6tn. Russia is the world's biggest banana republic. More like oil sheikdom, actually.