3 ms·

What will he do as he realizes he can't hold Kyiv. When he realizes his plan of quick conquest failed, that the Russian military has been revealed to be an emba

What will he do as he realizes he can't hold Kyiv. When he realizes his plan of quick conquest failed, that the Russian military has been revealed to be an embarrassing mess on the global stage. I worry that he'll use increasingly vicious attacks on population centers, bombings, as an offset to cover up the ineptitude. He can't afford the loss of face, the show of weakness, that the present circumstances represent. His military is weak, poorly organized, incapable of pinpoint strategy, and he'll make up for it by brute force (which will get a lot of civilians killed). The US and Europe so far are pulling together (with Germany finally coming around more), so Ukraine appears that they'll have a supply of weapons to fight an occupation. The Ukrainians will hate any pro-Russian regime that gets installed and will topple it; the Ukrainian army will not align with Russia. It's hard to see a glorious winning outcome for Putin from here.

s5300 5y ago
Trying to be short with words: I had zero doubts this invasion was going to happen for at least like, 2 months, possibly more. It’s been reported that a surprisingly large amount of people & even governments truly thought it wasn’t going to happen. I am now truly worried that Putin is going to completely fucking raze Kyiv to the ground after being made to look like a complete & utter fool with his military’s lackluster performance. I really, really hope I’m wrong.
- IAmGraydon 5y ago
  Gambler’s fallacy. You guessed whether he would invade and you were right. That doesn’t mean your next guess is any more likely to be correct. FWIW, I have had the same concern as you. I don’t really know enough about Putin’s mental state to know whether the concern is valid. I think he would be much more likely to use chemical weapons rather than nuclear.
  - reducesuffering 5y ago
    > Gambler’s fallacy. You guessed whether he would invade and you were right. That doesn’t mean your next guess is any more likely to be correct. What??? This assumes every opinion comes down to a coin flip. This is clearly not the case. Some people are better predictors for things that don't have guaranteed probability of outcomes.
    - stickfigure 5y ago
      Meh. I also predicted this invasion would happen, yet I don't see Putin razing Kyiv or using nuclear weapons. There's plenty of opportunity for everyone to be wrong.
scaramanga 5y ago
> I worry that he'll use increasingly vicious attacks on population centers, bombings, as an offset to cover up the ineptitude. He can't afford the loss of face, the show of weakness, that the present circumstances represent. Yeah, I fear this is precisely the danger when dealing with narcissists like Putin. Sadly the idea of deploying effective political strategies to neutralize these dangers appears to be anathema in the west as we begin to mirror Putin with nonsensical, hypocritical and sanctimonious high-horsing. Politicians who wanted to keep BLM politics out of sport are now proposing full-scale ping-pong boycotts. Anti-BDS people are now refusing to drink vodka. Israelis in occupied Palestine are protesting against military occupations. British politicians who are in an alliance with the DUP are now against military interventions to "defend" separatists. Hawks have become doves and spread their beautiful wings to take flight. It's like part of the world has turned it's principles upside down overnight as soon as they see a chance to kick Russia in the shins. From the Russian perspective, this must look comical, and I'm sure it all plays handily in to their propaganda: "They are liars and hypocrites and everything they say is stupid, cynical and part of a power-play to disadvantage the legitimate aspirations of Russian people". Retch.

s5300 5y ago

Trying to be short with words: I had zero doubts this invasion was going to happen for at least like, 2 months, possibly more. It’s been reported that a surprisingly large amount of people & even governments truly thought it wasn’t going to happen. I am now truly worried that Putin is going to completely fucking raze Kyiv to the ground after being made to look like a complete & utter fool with his military’s lackluster performance. I really, really hope I’m wrong.

IAmGraydon 5y ago
Gambler’s fallacy. You guessed whether he would invade and you were right. That doesn’t mean your next guess is any more likely to be correct. FWIW, I have had the same concern as you. I don’t really know enough about Putin’s mental state to know whether the concern is valid. I think he would be much more likely to use chemical weapons rather than nuclear.
- reducesuffering 5y ago
  > Gambler’s fallacy. You guessed whether he would invade and you were right. That doesn’t mean your next guess is any more likely to be correct. What??? This assumes every opinion comes down to a coin flip. This is clearly not the case. Some people are better predictors for things that don't have guaranteed probability of outcomes.
  - stickfigure 5y ago
    Meh. I also predicted this invasion would happen, yet I don't see Putin razing Kyiv or using nuclear weapons. There's plenty of opportunity for everyone to be wrong.

scaramanga 5y ago

> I worry that he'll use increasingly vicious attacks on population centers, bombings, as an offset to cover up the ineptitude. He can't afford the loss of face, the show of weakness, that the present circumstances represent. Yeah, I fear this is precisely the danger when dealing with narcissists like Putin. Sadly the idea of deploying effective political strategies to neutralize these dangers appears to be anathema in the west as we begin to mirror Putin with nonsensical, hypocritical and sanctimonious high-horsing. Politicians who wanted to keep BLM politics out of sport are now proposing full-scale ping-pong boycotts. Anti-BDS people are now refusing to drink vodka. Israelis in occupied Palestine are protesting against military occupations. British politicians who are in an alliance with the DUP are now against military interventions to "defend" separatists. Hawks have become doves and spread their beautiful wings to take flight. It's like part of the world has turned it's principles upside down overnight as soon as they see a chance to kick Russia in the shins. From the Russian perspective, this must look comical, and I'm sure it all plays handily in to their propaganda: "They are liars and hypocrites and everything they say is stupid, cynical and part of a power-play to disadvantage the legitimate aspirations of Russian people". Retch.