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It seems to me(not anything) that Russia's failures all around are quite unexpected. Their military is significantly less prepared than they ought to be. Genera

It seems to me(not anything) that Russia's failures all around are quite unexpected. Their military is significantly less prepared than they ought to be. General mobilization vs russian military will become very rough for Russia when they bring reg troops into the cities. They aren't even at that stage. I was thinking about it today, conclusion is that there are proxy operators in the theatre. Ukraine hasn't been left alone military wise. Russia is also fighting how many other special forces of undeclared countries? Probably all of them? Russia thinks they are fighting against mom and dads, which they are, but they are also fighting against special forces who are probably wrecking the russian troops. They cant even account for this neither. To do so would destroy troop morale, add significant fear, and add tremendous time to the invasion. Considering this, the probability of even being successful in their plan to take ukraine is near 0. Sanctions and isolation will cripple them before they can overcome this massive degree of proxy war. russia is going to hurt so badly.

cottager2 5y ago
I’ve been following this closely and I haven’t seen any mention of non-Ukrainian forces in the country. Seems like pure speculation?
- enkid 5y ago
  There's been some groups raising independent fighting forces in Syria and Chechnya, but I don't think they've gotten to Ukraine yet. Ukraine has been actively recruiting Westerners who have been willing to fight since 2014 as well.
  - ukraineally 5y ago
    >There's been some groups raising independent fighting forces in Syria and Chechnya, but I don't think they've gotten to Ukraine yet. Ukraine has been actively recruiting Westerners who have been willing to fight since 2014 as well. I have seen this, roughly 20,000 strong. But they have been specfically instructed to only shoot at nazis. That general ukrainian troops aren't allies, but they are not allowed to kill them.
- floober 5y ago
  I think it is safe to assume that most/all (large) modern countries have paramilitary forces that are used to carefully tip the scales toward outcomes that are in their best interest in situations like these.
  - woodruffw 5y ago
    I don't think this is likely: the upside is small (can American GIs shoot anti-tank missiles better than Ukranian GIs?) and the downside is extremely large (nothing polls worse than Americans getting shipped home in boxes, and nothing would make Russia happier than to have actual proof of direct interference.)
    - dvt 5y ago
      > the downside is extremely large (nothing polls worse than Americans getting shipped home in boxes, and nothing would make Russia happier than to have actual proof of direct interference.) I think this goes against everything we know about modern warfare. I'd bet money (1) Zelenskyy is being actively supported/coached by the CIA or MI6 (his PR/propaganda game has been absolutely on point), (2) there are covert-ops teams in Ukraine that are assisting the rag-tag paramilitary and civilian groups with advanced urban warfare tactics (e.g. demolishing bridges, improvised armaments, etc.), and (3) the Kremlin is correct that NATO/US UAVs are relaying detailed Russian troop/ship movements back to Ukranian leadership.
      - woodruffw 5y ago
        You've mashed a whole bunch of things together here. Is Zelenskyy receiving foreign intelligence from NATO? That wouldn't surprise me. Is NATO (or separately the US) flying drones over Ukraine for intelligence gathering? That's a step further, but it doesn't seem impossible. Are there US/British/etc. nationals in Ukraine, doing their own protective sabotage/engaging directly with the enemy? I find this very difficult to believe, for the reasons stated in the previous comment. "Modern warfare" means a whole bunch of things, including that Ukrainian soldiers don't need months of training to operate the push-button munitions that NATO has dumped on them. NATO has dozens of options to exhaust before doing something as risky as directly inserting foreign soldiers into a war they're not involved in on paper.
- ukraineally 5y ago
  >I’ve been following this closely and I haven’t seen any mention of non-Ukrainian forces in the country. Seems like pure speculation? Absolutely pure speculation. We never know what the navy seals or the green berets or the french dragoons, etc etc are doing. Everyone has many divisions of specops. Seal team 6 were the ones who very illegally operated within pakistan to kill osama bin laden. In fact, Pakistan became a belligerent(siding with russia) in the Ukraine conflict probably due to large part of the publicity of the killing: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killing_of_Osama_bin_Laden#Under_international_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killing_of_Osama_bin_Laden#Und... Now im not interested debating the legality here. Im just pointing out, they operate wherever the hell they please. I would bet any amount of money specops of all major countries are in ukraine right now. Not 100% of the allies of ukraine and certainly not 0%. I'd also bet there are constant very high res spy sattelites mapping every step of every russian soldier. You can actively see the global hawks operating. You can actively see the awacs in the air. NATO response force is active and at the border. Those dude are going to be damn near if not as well trained as specops. Like, being realistic, Russia already lost the war and they dont realize it. The thing that got me thinking about this. Spetsnaz blue berets airdropped into that international airport, they took it. Spetsnaz are legit and well trained... and they were routed within the day? I dont believe it. I do believe it when I consider specops from across the world came in and wrecked their face.
  - Melatonic 5y ago
    I doubt this really - I think it is much more likely that in the past few months specops from other countries were in Ukraine training the hell out of Ukrainian soldiers. I guess I would not be surprised if individual countries that bordered Russia / Ukraine had limited people in the area but the potential political fallout would be huge if the UK for example was caught operating in the country while publicly saying they are not. Private for hire mercenary groups though who knows
  - selimthegrim 5y ago
    Pak hasn't officially taken sides. Putin just started the war while their PM was visiting because he doesn't give a shit about them.
- lIIIllllIIII 5y ago
  - yks 5y ago
    [flagged]
    - lIIIllllIIII 5y ago
  - ukraineally 5y ago
    To be clear, this denazification stuff is russian propaganda. >Also perhaps noteworthy is that the Proud Boys in Australia To be extra clear, the 'everyone is nazis' stuff really falls apart when the supposed nazis are not possibly nazis. Ukraine's president is Jewish... For example, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enrique_Tarrio https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enrique_Tarrio That's the leader of the proud boys. He's very obviously not a nazi. Feel free to disagree with their politics but there's absolutely not a shred of evidence this guy who isn't white is a nazi. You did confirm something with me today. Australia's media has been infiltrated by Russian spies. I must admit, I'm not really familiar with Australia's media besides this guy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xlIrI80og8c https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xlIrI80og8c So what media do you follow that makes you think everyone is a nazi?
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
nyokodo 5y ago
> there are proxy operators in the theatre. Maybe, however, it’s more likely that Russia’s military is less competently run than previously thought. I wouldn’t be surprised if intel was being shared with Ukraine and weapons definitely are being shared.
- ukraineally 5y ago
  >Maybe, however, it’s more likely that Russia’s military is less competently run than previously thought. I wouldn’t be surprised if intel was being shared with Ukraine and weapons definitely are being shared. There is info that the troops didnt think they were invading. They were either thinking they were protecting against nazi troops or were just training. This makes sense, if you're planning an invasion, the troops cant be told. They would be security threats. But at the same time, that lack of knowledge will make them ill prepared at the beginning. But their morale after these massive losses will suffer. The thing is about proxy spec ops. It's practically 100% they are there but russian troops cant be told. Imagine you're already taking losses, then you get told the world's spec ops are there. You'd shit your pants. You're figthing against farmers and navy seals? You would have to treat every fight like you are fighting navy seals. That would make anyone rout instantly.
yks 5y ago
It turns out, dictatorship is not a superior form of governance because eventually all important positions are taken by people loyal but otherwise inept. Realistic assessments never reach decision-makers, unfounded optimism sets in and when the plans meet reality, everything falls apart.
- nine_zeros 5y ago
  When the room is full of Yes Men, that room is not a truthful room. Also applies to tech industry - big lesson for management that cannot work with people who disagree.
- lamontcg 5y ago
  Sounds like my 9-to-5.
- newsbinator 5y ago
  I wouldn’t go that far. Dictatorship can be highly successful if the dictator incentivizes competence.
  - reddog 5y ago
    Examples?
    - infamia 5y ago
      Genghis Khan was a monster, but he rewarded success regardless of almost all other factors. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genghis_Khan#Politics_and_economics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genghis_Khan#Politics_and_econ...
  - oblio 5y ago
    True, but competence tends to come with ambition.
- stjohnswarts 5y ago
  Yep, idiots get placed in high positions because they are loyal, not because they have talent. Same with the military. I'm not saying that doesn't happen in the USA and other countries, but it happens much less often because you have other parties to call it out. In Russia, everything traces back to Putin and his talentless goons. I think China somewhat gets around this a bit because they have centuries long bent towards meritocracy, although I'm sure plenty of people reach high level that have no talent for it, just not to the extent that a country like Russia sees.
tguvot 5y ago
i think you underestimate combination of people whole ready to die for their country and modern anti-tank equipment that was shipped to Ukraine (javelines and nlaws) in past month or two

cottager2 5y ago

I’ve been following this closely and I haven’t seen any mention of non-Ukrainian forces in the country. Seems like pure speculation?

enkid 5y ago
There's been some groups raising independent fighting forces in Syria and Chechnya, but I don't think they've gotten to Ukraine yet. Ukraine has been actively recruiting Westerners who have been willing to fight since 2014 as well.
- ukraineally 5y ago
  >There's been some groups raising independent fighting forces in Syria and Chechnya, but I don't think they've gotten to Ukraine yet. Ukraine has been actively recruiting Westerners who have been willing to fight since 2014 as well. I have seen this, roughly 20,000 strong. But they have been specfically instructed to only shoot at nazis. That general ukrainian troops aren't allies, but they are not allowed to kill them.
floober 5y ago
I think it is safe to assume that most/all (large) modern countries have paramilitary forces that are used to carefully tip the scales toward outcomes that are in their best interest in situations like these.
- woodruffw 5y ago
  I don't think this is likely: the upside is small (can American GIs shoot anti-tank missiles better than Ukranian GIs?) and the downside is extremely large (nothing polls worse than Americans getting shipped home in boxes, and nothing would make Russia happier than to have actual proof of direct interference.)
  - dvt 5y ago
    > the downside is extremely large (nothing polls worse than Americans getting shipped home in boxes, and nothing would make Russia happier than to have actual proof of direct interference.) I think this goes against everything we know about modern warfare. I'd bet money (1) Zelenskyy is being actively supported/coached by the CIA or MI6 (his PR/propaganda game has been absolutely on point), (2) there are covert-ops teams in Ukraine that are assisting the rag-tag paramilitary and civilian groups with advanced urban warfare tactics (e.g. demolishing bridges, improvised armaments, etc.), and (3) the Kremlin is correct that NATO/US UAVs are relaying detailed Russian troop/ship movements back to Ukranian leadership.
    - woodruffw 5y ago
      You've mashed a whole bunch of things together here. Is Zelenskyy receiving foreign intelligence from NATO? That wouldn't surprise me. Is NATO (or separately the US) flying drones over Ukraine for intelligence gathering? That's a step further, but it doesn't seem impossible. Are there US/British/etc. nationals in Ukraine, doing their own protective sabotage/engaging directly with the enemy? I find this very difficult to believe, for the reasons stated in the previous comment. "Modern warfare" means a whole bunch of things, including that Ukrainian soldiers don't need months of training to operate the push-button munitions that NATO has dumped on them. NATO has dozens of options to exhaust before doing something as risky as directly inserting foreign soldiers into a war they're not involved in on paper.
ukraineally 5y ago
>I’ve been following this closely and I haven’t seen any mention of non-Ukrainian forces in the country. Seems like pure speculation? Absolutely pure speculation. We never know what the navy seals or the green berets or the french dragoons, etc etc are doing. Everyone has many divisions of specops. Seal team 6 were the ones who very illegally operated within pakistan to kill osama bin laden. In fact, Pakistan became a belligerent(siding with russia) in the Ukraine conflict probably due to large part of the publicity of the killing: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killing_of_Osama_bin_Laden#Under_international_law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killing_of_Osama_bin_Laden#Und... Now im not interested debating the legality here. Im just pointing out, they operate wherever the hell they please. I would bet any amount of money specops of all major countries are in ukraine right now. Not 100% of the allies of ukraine and certainly not 0%. I'd also bet there are constant very high res spy sattelites mapping every step of every russian soldier. You can actively see the global hawks operating. You can actively see the awacs in the air. NATO response force is active and at the border. Those dude are going to be damn near if not as well trained as specops. Like, being realistic, Russia already lost the war and they dont realize it. The thing that got me thinking about this. Spetsnaz blue berets airdropped into that international airport, they took it. Spetsnaz are legit and well trained... and they were routed within the day? I dont believe it. I do believe it when I consider specops from across the world came in and wrecked their face.
- Melatonic 5y ago
  I doubt this really - I think it is much more likely that in the past few months specops from other countries were in Ukraine training the hell out of Ukrainian soldiers. I guess I would not be surprised if individual countries that bordered Russia / Ukraine had limited people in the area but the potential political fallout would be huge if the UK for example was caught operating in the country while publicly saying they are not. Private for hire mercenary groups though who knows
- selimthegrim 5y ago
  Pak hasn't officially taken sides. Putin just started the war while their PM was visiting because he doesn't give a shit about them.
lIIIllllIIII 5y ago
- yks 5y ago
  [flagged]
  - lIIIllllIIII 5y ago
- ukraineally 5y ago
  To be clear, this denazification stuff is russian propaganda. >Also perhaps noteworthy is that the Proud Boys in Australia To be extra clear, the 'everyone is nazis' stuff really falls apart when the supposed nazis are not possibly nazis. Ukraine's president is Jewish... For example, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enrique_Tarrio https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enrique_Tarrio That's the leader of the proud boys. He's very obviously not a nazi. Feel free to disagree with their politics but there's absolutely not a shred of evidence this guy who isn't white is a nazi. You did confirm something with me today. Australia's media has been infiltrated by Russian spies. I must admit, I'm not really familiar with Australia's media besides this guy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xlIrI80og8c https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xlIrI80og8c So what media do you follow that makes you think everyone is a nazi?

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

nyokodo 5y ago

> there are proxy operators in the theatre. Maybe, however, it’s more likely that Russia’s military is less competently run than previously thought. I wouldn’t be surprised if intel was being shared with Ukraine and weapons definitely are being shared.

ukraineally 5y ago
>Maybe, however, it’s more likely that Russia’s military is less competently run than previously thought. I wouldn’t be surprised if intel was being shared with Ukraine and weapons definitely are being shared. There is info that the troops didnt think they were invading. They were either thinking they were protecting against nazi troops or were just training. This makes sense, if you're planning an invasion, the troops cant be told. They would be security threats. But at the same time, that lack of knowledge will make them ill prepared at the beginning. But their morale after these massive losses will suffer. The thing is about proxy spec ops. It's practically 100% they are there but russian troops cant be told. Imagine you're already taking losses, then you get told the world's spec ops are there. You'd shit your pants. You're figthing against farmers and navy seals? You would have to treat every fight like you are fighting navy seals. That would make anyone rout instantly.

yks 5y ago

It turns out, dictatorship is not a superior form of governance because eventually all important positions are taken by people loyal but otherwise inept. Realistic assessments never reach decision-makers, unfounded optimism sets in and when the plans meet reality, everything falls apart.

nine_zeros 5y ago
When the room is full of Yes Men, that room is not a truthful room. Also applies to tech industry - big lesson for management that cannot work with people who disagree.
lamontcg 5y ago
Sounds like my 9-to-5.
newsbinator 5y ago
I wouldn’t go that far. Dictatorship can be highly successful if the dictator incentivizes competence.
- reddog 5y ago
  Examples?
  - infamia 5y ago
    Genghis Khan was a monster, but he rewarded success regardless of almost all other factors. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genghis_Khan#Politics_and_economics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genghis_Khan#Politics_and_econ...
- oblio 5y ago
  True, but competence tends to come with ambition.
stjohnswarts 5y ago
Yep, idiots get placed in high positions because they are loyal, not because they have talent. Same with the military. I'm not saying that doesn't happen in the USA and other countries, but it happens much less often because you have other parties to call it out. In Russia, everything traces back to Putin and his talentless goons. I think China somewhat gets around this a bit because they have centuries long bent towards meritocracy, although I'm sure plenty of people reach high level that have no talent for it, just not to the extent that a country like Russia sees.

tguvot 5y ago

i think you underestimate combination of people whole ready to die for their country and modern anti-tank equipment that was shipped to Ukraine (javelines and nlaws) in past month or two