24 ms·

Full consensus for disconnecting Russia from SWIFT achieved, process has begun

• ferongr 5y ago
  Fuck. I predict this will bring 2.4€/liter gas, 1.5€/liter heating oil and 0.3€/KWh electricity and 2,5€/m3 natgas in my little corner of Europe.
  • tpmx 5y ago
    It's very much worth it in the long term. I'm in a cold northern European country (Sweden). Heating houses will be really costly next winter, but the extra cost will be so worth it. I assume the government will step in to even out costs.
    • ferongr 5y ago
      The consequences will be long term, while the people here will not reap any benefits.
      • chrisseaton 5y ago
        > will not reap any benefits Keeping Russia at bay?
        • ferongr 5y ago
          My country faces no threat from Russia.
          • jacquesm 5y ago
            If you're in Europe then I would advise against taking bets that there are no nuclear weapons in Russia with the name of your capital on them.
          • chrisseaton 5y ago
            I think this is deeply ignorant, no matter which European country you're in. You're already being operated against. https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep21140.10 https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep21140.10 And I hope for example you don't rely on any submarine cables to talk to other continents.
          • 7steps2much 5y ago
            Well luckily that your country isn't the only one calling the shots then eh? Solidarity and unity is kind of the whole point of the EU after all. If your country is not a part of the EU of course then this doesn't apply, but in that case I assume one could claim that you should just have better prepared to be slapped around by larger powers as they please.
          • toomanyrichies 5y ago
            https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_they_came_ https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_they_came_...
          • ranguna 5y ago
            Damn.. I'm very sad opinions like that exist. I recommend you leave your country if it's in the EU, seems your values don't really align.
      • bushbaba 5y ago
        Disagree. Will accelerate the adoption of renewables and non oil energy sources. Where oil is needed it’ll encourage sourcing diversification
        • tpmx 5y ago
          It will certainly kickstart nuclear power in Europe. This is the impetus that was needed.
  • baq 5y ago
    it might also keep your corner yours. weaning off putin's energy should've been done ages ago before it came to this. for the record, typing this from eastern europe, thus getting some vaseline ready for when the gas and energy invoices come.
  • dixie_land 5y ago
    or you can keep your cheap gas and start learning Russian
  • yosito 5y ago
    I don't understand this complaint. Are you suggesting that you'd prefer to let Russia oppress and kill so that you can have cheaper gas for a little while?
  • divan 5y ago
    As a Ukrainian not knowing if Kyiv will be hit by ballistic missles by morning (attack is happening right now, and everyone is hiding in shelters), I really feel your pain.
    • freedomben 5y ago
      Are you anywhere near Kyiv? Do you know if they've been cut off from internet, power, etc?
      • hungrygs 5y ago
        Look on Youtube- the power and internet are still on. There are live streams still.
      • divan 5y ago
        I'm in Tallinn (happened to fly here for a regular business trip a day before it started), but I'm 24/7 online with friends, with gf on video call. Internet and power are totally fine, no distruptions so far.
  • bushbaba 5y ago
    Maybe the eu should have listened to us administration that relying on so much Russian energy is a short term win at a long term cost.
  • seszett 5y ago
    Electricity is already 30c/kWh here in Belgium, at least. I suppose it will get to 50c or so then. Edit I'm not complaining, we should never have accepted to buy Russian gas in the first place and I've always been opposed to the current "ecologists" plans to build more gas plants.
  • AmIDev 5y ago
    I live in tropics, so pardon my ignorance, but is heating really necessary in cold places? I assume that instead of warming the entire home, one could huddle near a fireplace, and layer up with more wool.
• stakkur 5y ago
  I’m sure during months of planning that Russia gave no thought to financial implications of the attack. Nope, made no preparations at all.
• worik 5y ago
  About time. Now stop buying Russian oil. If they are serious. Are they?
  • gedy 5y ago
    Given they've had 8 years warning, no, probably not
  • ukraineally 5y ago
    >Now stop buying Russian oil. This is precisely what will happen. How do you buy russian oil if you cannot transfer money to Russia? That's what SWIFT removal does. Effectively means Russia cannot import or export anything. China has made 1 exception, they will still import russian wheat and that's it.
    • einrealist 5y ago
      Oil and gas payments are not affected by blacklisting the already sanctioned banks in Swift.
    • baq 5y ago
      a boatload of gucci moccasins and german luxury cars for a tanker full of crude, obviously.
    • throwthere 5y ago
      > China has made 1 exception, they will still import russian wheat and that's it. Are you saying China won't import Russian oil?
    • batterseapower 5y ago
      Theoretically possibly by bartering for oil. The EU already has such a mechanism in place for buying oil from Iran: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrument_in_Support_of_Trade_Exchanges https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrument_in_Support_of_Trade...
  • bhawks 5y ago
    What happens when winter comes? Europe is heated by gas from Russian pipelines. If nordstream 2 had come online they were going to get 80% of their fuel from Russia. Alternative energy sources weren't ready for the load and post Fukushima there were huge pressure to shut down nuclear power. We've been painting ourselves into a corner for awhile.
• quenix 5y ago
  Russia has previously stated that they would consider this an act of war [0]. Troubling. [0]: https://russiabusinesstoday.com/economy/russia-would-consider-cutting-off-from-swift-as-act-of-war-medvedev/ https://russiabusinesstoday.com/economy/russia-would-conside...
  • redisman 5y ago
    Russia had said a lot of things. If you take everything at face value you’ll simply be conquered.
  • Gatsky 5y ago
    Invading Europe is unlikely to restore SWIFT access.
    • danpalmer 5y ago
      And even if it did, SWIFT access is in large part a quick way to impose a lot of sanctions. It essentially limits imports/exports which could be done in other ways (and have been, E.g. Nordstream 2) but which would take a lot of time to do effectively.
    • smegger001 5y ago
      But from the point of veiw of the russian leadership they have less to loose now. That said i think we should cut them off and give all the aid to Ukrain we can, the west is doing it a disservice after they voluntarily gave up their nuclear weapons on the condition that we protect them.
      • MauranKilom 5y ago
        > But from the point of veiw of the russian leadership they have less to loose now. They are paying a hefty price with every single day this situation goes on. The goal is to reach the point of "too painful to continue" as quickly as possible.
      • salawat 5y ago
        The Budapest Memorandum did not include a defense clause. >https://www.un.org/en/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=A/49/765 https://www.un.org/en/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=A/49/765
• yalogin 5y ago
  Can someone with knowledge explain what this means for European countries that buy gas, oil and other goods from Russia. I am guessing they still want the essentials. Are those purchases not done through swift? That bring up another question, are purchases from one country to another done through the regular banking system?
  • mytailorisrich 5y ago
    They've only blocked some Russian banks from SWIFT. They probably want to still be able to pay for gas and be paid for exports...
  • pvaldes 5y ago
    That many will start (or continue) buying gas from Argelia instead
• omosubi 5y ago
  The articles I've seen about this say it's a significant move, but what exactly will it mean for Russia and its economy? Will it also impose costs on western economies? What exactly are those?
  • mikeryan 5y ago
    Personally I have a contractors that work for me in Russia. We pay them via a wire. If this goes through I’m not sure how I’m going to do that. Have to look at running them through a different system maybe? Any ideas I’d take them.
    • deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
    • josephcsible 5y ago
      Isn't the point of this sanction to keep people from doing things like that?
    • mediocregopher 5y ago
      Bitcoin. People may complain about the volatility, but you only have to hold it long enough to send it, and they only have to hold it long enough to sell, if that's what they care to do.
      • whatshisface 5y ago
        Beware that this might count as circumventing US sanctions by the time they're done writing these new regulations.
    • cryptoegorophy 5y ago
      PayPal still works as far as I know. But yeah. Bitcoin is the go to. Ironically I have workers in both and I send bitcoin to ukraine because all other means are expensive and get questioned a lot.
      • 5y ago
• the_duke 5y ago
  Can someone familiar with the banking system chime in here? The announcements say that only selected banks are targeted. Won't they just funnel transactions through other Russian banks that are not banned? I also read that the previously announced sanctions on banks have lots of loopholes. Is that accurate? It all sounds a bit like punitive token measures rather than an actual hardline action. The central bank restrictions seem more impactful. I know nothing concrete was published yet, but how could they look like? Will they actually prevent Russia from liquidating their foreign currency reserves? Or can they also circumvent this by going through other countries like China?
  • rwaksmunski 5y ago
    SWIFT disconnection is the WMD in the finance world. If you are American, imagine not being able to use ACH or checks anymore.
    • coolestguy 5y ago
      >checks Unbelievable that this is how americans regularly use money
      • quesera 5y ago
        Payment by check is really not that common in US retail commerce. 2021 numbers from the Fed indicate 2% of in-person payments are via check, and I suspect that skews very heavily toward older customers. For comparison: 34% debit card, 31% credit card, 28% cash, 4% "other". https://www.frbsf.org/cash/publications/fed-notes/2021/may/2021-findings-from-the-diary-of-consumer-payment-choice/ https://www.frbsf.org/cash/publications/fed-notes/2021/may/2...
      • DyslexicAtheist 5y ago
        France is heavily using them heavily too. Some people even pay their groceries with cheques.
    • egao1980 5y ago
      Not really. SWIFT is just helps to make transaction fast. There are alternatives that include Russian and Chinese systems. And you can always use phone, fax, etc. Disconnecting Russia from SWIFT will a) create short term hiccup in transaction clearing, b) reduce SWIFT revenues c) force Russia to switch oil/gas contracts to rouble or yuan. This in the long run is not good for euro as a reserve currency and will hurt petrodollar.
• pavlov 5y ago
  The US and EU are also placing sanctions on the Russian central bank. Experts quoted by the Financial Times seem to believe that this is more impactful than the SWIFT disconnect: ’Josh Lipsky, a former IMF adviser now at the Atlantic Council think-tank, said earlier the US imposing sanctions on the Russian central bank would be an “extraordinarily significant and damaging move to the Russian economy”. ’“A G20 central bank has never been sanctioned before. This is not Iran. This is not Venezuela. So to shut off their central bank from the international financial system, or at least the dollar and euro economy, is a massively destabilising move potentially,” said Lipsky. ’Edward Fishman, a former US official now at the Center for a New American Security, said it would present a “devastating blow” to the Russian economy that would eclipse the significance of a ban on Swift.’
  • from 5y ago
    Doesn't this mean the ruble will collapse? They only have $12 billion in physical cash and $140 billion or so in gold.
    • _Algernon_ 5y ago
      Ruble? More like rubble...
    • megous 5y ago
      Putin's decision to go to war backfired quite a bit.
      • na85 5y ago
        We'll see. I'm not convinced that he's quite the buffoon he's being portrayed as lately. This is a shrewd ex-KGB officer who's held onto power for more than two decades.
        • rootusrootus 5y ago
          Is he really being portrayed as a buffoon, though? In my experience most people seem to respect that he is quite good at playing the power game. Lately he's definitely being portrayed as evil, for sure. But I wonder if maybe he miscalculated how this war would play out. Even skilled operators f*ck it up once in a while.
• ukraineally 5y ago
  https://twitter.com/zelenskyyua/status/1497340787280920581?s=21 https://twitter.com/zelenskyyua/status/1497340787280920581?s... Macron had the wonderful pleasure of being the one to tell hero president zelensky.
  • rad_gruchalski 5y ago
    I find it really distasteful from Twitter that they still put up this screen nagging to sign in, and preventing reaching this important information. Twitter - you end up like Facebook. Blocked on the router. Bye. To be on subject, as pointed out to me lower: very good to read that this decision has been made. I hope that the physical military support reaches Ukraine in time.
    • aprdm 5y ago
      Yet is where the information is. Twitter and Reddit have been very valuable in this war, annoying patterns aside.
      • rad_gruchalski 5y ago
        I'm not denying that's where the information is. But it will be very distasteful to read after the next quarter that their stock went up because so and so many people signed up. Yeah, but why have they signed up... I guess it doesn't matter when you count $$$$.
        • mtmail 5y ago
          If you saw the sign-in banner then likely you haven't seen the content and instead comment to complaint about paywalls or walled gardens, be it Facebook/Reddit/Twitter. It's distracting from the main discussion.
          • rad_gruchalski 5y ago
            I see the content thanks to one of the people who responded to me.
• deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
• Sebguer 5y ago
  Whitehouse's statement: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/02/26/joint-statement-on-further-restrictive-economic-measures/ https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases... Specifies that selected banks, not all, will be removed from SWIFT. And more restrictions on the central bank.
  • belter 5y ago
    Most relevant measures: "First, we commit to ensuring that selected Russian banks are removed from the SWIFT messaging system. This will ensure that these banks are disconnected from the international financial system and harm their ability to operate globally. Second, we commit to imposing restrictive measures that will prevent the Russian Central Bank from deploying its international reserves in ways that undermine the impact of our sanctions. Third, we commit to acting against the people and entities who facilitate the war in Ukraine and the harmful activities of the Russian government. Specifically, we commit to taking measures to limit the sale of citizenship—so called golden passports—that let wealthy Russians connected to the Russian government become citizens of our countries and gain access to our financial systems. Fourth, we commit to launching this coming week a transatlantic task force that will ensure the effective implementation of our financial sanctions by identifying and freezing the assets of sanctioned individuals and companies that exist within our jurisdictions. As a part of this effort we are committed to employing sanctions and other financial and enforcement measures on additional Russian officials and elites close to the Russian government, as well as their families, and their enablers to identify and freeze the assets they hold in our jurisdictions. We will also engage other governments and work to detect and disrupt the movement of ill-gotten gains, and to deny these individuals the ability to hide their assets in jurisdictions across the world..."
  • gip 5y ago
    Highly preferable to a total ban from SWIFT. Because giving the perception to the dictator of a nuclear state that all his money reserves have been totally “stolen” may not be the wisest move. I’d personally not take that risk and work on other fronts.
    • 5y ago
• sebazzz 5y ago
  What is the turnaround time for this to get implemented and what is involved from a technical perspective? Configuration and some buttons, changes in a process only, or are some software developers called in?
• xvilka 5y ago
  It will only boost SWIFT alternatives like CIPS[1] and Russia's own SPFS [2]. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross-Border_Inter-Bank_Payments_System https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross-Border_Inter-Bank_Paym... [2] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/SPFS https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/SPFS
  • monocasa 5y ago
    And what's the chance Putin has a massive interest in SPFS. Almost certainly, IMO.
  • chrononaut 5y ago
    Not sure why you are getting downvoted. Can anyone with more familiarity with these systems chime in whether this is not true?
    • chalst 5y ago
      See my other reply. It's true that disconnection is a boost for these systems, but Russia is in for a whole lot of pain regardless; there's no "only" about this step.
      • xvilka 5y ago
        Good point. Poor wording on my part. Of course it will be painful. Here "only" has another meaning - it reflects that it will be a big blow to the global SWIFT dominance.
      • chrononaut 5y ago
        Got it; Thanks!
      • monocasa 5y ago
        I guess I feel like Russia strategic choices being against Russian interests generally but being for the interests of a handful of oligarchs is pretty on brand.
  • chalst 5y ago
• xiphias2 5y ago
  It's a scary world we live in when countries with nuclear weapons start to fight with eachother. I wish Biden and Putin would try everything to make a new deal instead of stopping trading with eachother.
  • 542458 5y ago
    We famously tried policies of appeasement for dictators in Europe looking to expand their borders in the past, without success.
    • password54321 5y ago
      This keeps being thrown out but it doesn't change the fact that we are provoking a massive nuclear threat at the moment.
      • lossolo 5y ago
        There will be no massive nuclear attack of any kind. War is just an extension to politics, it has its goals. Everyone around Putin knows about MAD and have their own families, no one will sacrifice them to altar of Putin, he will be removed before anything like that happens. Your fear is exactly what he wants, this is his goal, to paralyze the west in fear so he can take country by country in upcoming years. The only language he understands is force and strength, he will take how much you will give him until you say no more.
    • Scarblac 5y ago
      That was before nuclear weapons though.
      • Victerius 5y ago
        The fact that dictatorships have nuclear weapons doesn't change the fact that their ambitions must be resisted, at the cost of war if necessary. The West has called Putin's bluff, and will continue to do so in the future. If Russia wants to start a nuclear war, that will be on them.
• deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
• andrewstuart 5y ago
  What's the real difference between the west's economic retaliation versus a military retaliation? Won't Russia decide that it is being attacked either way? Seems to me totally isolating Russia from the world financial system means they have nothing left to lose and might lead to the war expanding.
  • yakkityyak 5y ago
    Hopefully, they can also realize if they cut off the invasion these sanctions will be lifted.
  • throwthere 5y ago
    Yeah I mean look at Germany after WW1. Germany's isolation, reparations and despair led to intense nationalism and... WW2.
  • belter 5y ago
    "Russia Would Consider Cutting off from SWIFT as Act of War: Medvedev" https://russiabusinesstoday.com/economy/russia-would-consider-cutting-off-from-swift-as-act-of-war-medvedev/ https://russiabusinesstoday.com/economy/russia-would-conside...
  • justin66 5y ago
    > What's the real difference between the west's economic retaliation versus a military retaliation? It is considerably easier to reestablish SWIFT transaction processing than it is to return the dead to life. > Seems to me totally isolating Russia from the world financial system means they have nothing left to lose and might lead to the war expanding. As a dictator Putin might place zero value on Russian life, as you've done in your comment, but it is unlikely that everyone on the Russian side will see it that way.
  • mebassett 5y ago
    there's a good chance that any form of military retaliation could lead to an action that the Russian military might confuse with preparations for a nuclear first strike, leading them to want to do the same. such confusion doesn't arise with economic retaliation.
• throwthere 5y ago
  Kind of related question-- how hard will it be for Germany to reopen its nuclear reactors? Politically, it seems like the environment has changed at least.
  • jacquesm 5y ago
    Very hard. Lots of stuff out of certification unless they were mothballed with the explicit goal of being restartable, if the fuel has been removed it will be weeks at a minimum, but more likely months assuming that it is possible at all.
    • throwthere 5y ago
      Interesting. So at a pretty large expense do you think it’s something that could be done before next winter?
      • jacquesm 5y ago
        Tough question, there are a number of nuclear plant engineers on HN that should be able to give more clarity. When Pickering shut down in Ontario because of the powerfailure the shutdown took less than a minute, the restart took more than two weeks. And that was with a fully fueled operationally ready plant. Refueling is a month or so normally, but what I am wondering about is if you leave a plant like that powered off for a while without the express goal of restarting it (besides the removal of the fuel) how much of it will require refurbishing before it can all work again. I would expect that the whole plant would need to be recertified before it could be operated again.
      • jacquesm 5y ago
        So, some more reading later: there is a 'post operational' phase prior to the actual decomissioning when stuff starts to be taken apart and removed. I think the question to be answered is whether or not these plants are still in the 'post operational' phase or whether there has already been decommissioning, so far I have not been able to find anything definitive on this.
  • 5y ago
• password321 5y ago
  We really should honestly start looking for the nearest nuclear bunkers. There is little chance this could end well with how fast things are escalating. All this for fucking what.
  • kirykl 5y ago
    At least we can expect Spacex starship schedule to accelerate as the billionaires skip out
• deleted 5y ago
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• lettergram 5y ago
  Tad concerned about this, although I’m not sure it impacts commodities. If / When that occurs I think we may run into major issues. 1. The only reason the dollar is the world currency is we effectively force commodity exchanges in that currency 2. Russia is a large resource exporter (one of the largest and largest energy exporter to EU). Iran is a massive exporter. And China is the largest consumer. 3. Russia and China can now dictate how they conduct transactions. They’ll say gold, Bitcoin, Ruble w.e. 4. That’ll cause dollar to drop like a rock in value. As suddenly no one will need trillions in dollars any more to do transactions. 5. Separately, Russia said they’d view any sanction as an act of war. Which could result in a massive escalation. 6 Russia has been preparing for this. Switched to conduct trade with China, has EU by the balls in winter via energy and has a massive gold reserve
  • nopcode 5y ago
    > Switched to conduct trade with China China and the EU are not trading the same commodities with Russia though. Adapting the largest supply chains takes years, decades even.
    • lettergram 5y ago
      That’s actually my point in part, Russia can now dictate terms. Russia can sell fuel to China / through China if the EU doesn’t play ball. Similarly, China can also change what they want to accept. It would be relatively easy at this point (though painful) to force the EU to adopt w.e. The joint Russia-China partnership desire.
      • rsynnott 5y ago
        Does China particularly _want_ enormous amounts of additional natural gas, though? Even if Russia could get it there; I don't think there's a cross-continental pipeline at the moment?
  • jimbob45 5y ago
    >has EU by the balls in winter via energy The worst of winter seems to have already passed. Also, it’s bold to assume China will align themselves with an economically and morally dead Russia. Even China knows you’re not supposed to get caught killing innocent civilians on video.
• jl6 5y ago
  What’s missing is the exit strategy. Putin can never back down now. The hope is that his military chiefs turn on him and force him out, so where’s the carrot for them?
• bambam24 5y ago
• yalogin 5y ago
  This was always mentioned as last ditch option with Russia. If Putin is defiant after this and turns rogue there are no more restrictions to put. The world will have no option but outright war given they have nukes
  • jahewson 5y ago
    There’s plenty of measures remaining until they are at the level of sanctions of say Iran or North Korea, which are under trade embargo.
• curveline 5y ago
• curveline 5y ago
• Corrado 5y ago
  Would it be possible / ethical to also remove Russia's connection to the Internet at large? Similar to a reverse great wall? Would this hurt the Russian people more than the government?
  • ranguna 5y ago
    That will only increase censorship in their territory. They need to see what they are doing to Ukraine is bad.
• voisin 5y ago
  While I applaud the decision I am concerned that if we bankrupt the country and it’s people we will create the same animosity prevalent in Germany after WWI, enabling further atrocities with popular support purchased by our decisions. That said, I don’t have a better solution.
• ck2 5y ago
  I sure hope this is long-term and not reversed in a year for convenience. Next up, no more travel in and out of the country. He wanted to decimate Ukraine? Decimate Russia instead. Remember they already did this with Georgia and got away with it, this has to be the last time ever. The only problem I see is what does Putin do when he has literally nothing else to lose, especially approaching his deathbed.
• noirchen 5y ago
  I am really interested in India's stance on this. Russia is India's largest source of arms, and even now Russia still has arms worth blns to be delivered to India. The last two years saw some border dispute between India and China, and despite China's request, Russia still managed to sign a huge military contract with India, and India has been ambiguous over the Ukraine war like China. What will India do next if Russia decides to use Chinese transaction system (which is almost certain unless Putin is overthrown)? And if we count in those countries still actively buying Russian weapons, including Algeria, Egypt, Vietnam, Turkey...we probably need some time to see how things will unfold.
  • AmIDev 5y ago
    India has plans to set up a rupee based transaction system with Russia. https://financialpost.com/news/economy/india-explores-setting-up-rupee-trade-accounts-with-russia-to-soften-sanctions-blow-sources https://financialpost.com/news/economy/india-explores-settin... In the long term, India has been working on indigenous development of military technology. Based on [1][2][3], one can see that while lot of stuff has been developed locally, especially w.r.t missiles and ships, there is still heavy dependency on Russia for Russian and Soviet made weapons. Especially, India lags behind in aircraft(engines to be specific), where progress was sabotaged despite good initial progress(see HAL Marut). [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Indian_Army https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_India... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weapon_systems_of_the_Indian_Navy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weapon_systems_of_the_Indian_N... [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Indian_military_aircraft https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_Indian_military...