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S&P lowers Russia's rating to 'junk' status, Moody's issues junk warning
- duxup 5y agoI wonder, if Russia wins the war and claims Ukraine is part of Russia…. do they assume responsibility for Ukraine’s debt?
- johnebgd 5y agoHard to see them losing a ground war to take the territory with such numerical superiority but it's been done before in Israel. Even if they lose the ground war initially a long term insurgency will develop and Russia will have trouble swallowing it.
- HWR_14 5y agoDo the Russians really have numerical superiority in the theater? I thought Ukraine had 250,000 troops (which includes the conscripts) and Russia had 150,000 in the area.
- ch4s3 5y agoThe Russians seem to only have air superiority and some advantages in armor. It's not clear they're going to win this.
- redisman 5y agoIf they buy more time they’re getting thousands of anti armor and anti air weapons very soon.
- ncallaway 5y agoThey haven’t even had unchallenged air superiority. Many Russian planes have been shot down (including two troop transports flying into contested airspace ?!), and Russian conveys have been successfully targeted and destroyed by Ukrainian air strikes. I think it’s fair to say that the Russians have air superiority, but most analysts expected them to have unchallenged air power by this point, and they definitely don’t have that
- ch4s3 5y agoYeah, they're really putting up an impressive fight. Ukrainians should feel really proud right now. I hope the incoming weapons make a difference, and I'm hoping we're getting them good intelligence.
- dijonman2 5y agoMy wife is Ukrainian, her family is currently safe. They’re a strong group of people. I’m proud of her, her country, and all they stand for. They know what true suffering is, having lived through multiple disgusting periods of abuse. We’re chatting here on HN from the safety of our chairs pontificating and pretending to be smarter than we are and they’re out there fighting for their lives. I hope Americans take notice and realize how crucial freedom is, and what it really takes to defend it.
- psyc 5y agoFreedom? Or sovereignty? Because I bet Americans would die for sovereignty. But we take liberty so much for granted that we continually debate trading it to boost all manner of hypothetical social utilitarian metrics.
- ch4s3 5y agoYeah, for sure it’s easy to talk thousands of miles away. I really want them to succeed and I’m looking for ways I can help. At the very least I’m trying to be a public voice in support of military aid, and cheering them on in general.
- ergocoder 5y agoInsurgency can be easily handled if you don't have to consider the humane aspect. Saddam handled insurgency pretty effectively.
- pcwalton 5y agoThe Soviet Union didn't, in Afghanistan.
- brap 5y agoThe Israelis knew that if the Arab armies, which greatly outnumbered them, won and conquered the land, then the holocaust would pale in comparison. They had nowhere to go, they had to fight. The Ukranians are not in the same place (the Russians will not slaughter them), but they are definitely fighting for their home, and they also have nowhere to go. Fear is a very powerful motivator. Now in contrast, imagine what the Russian soldiers are thinking. Forced to kill people so similar to them. They don’t even want to be there. I don’t think it’s unlikely that Russia will lose this one in the long term.
- hdjjhhvvhga 5y ago> The Ukranians are not in the same place (the Russians will not slaughter them) In other circumstances, I'd agree with you. But everybody is wondering what Putin's options are? His Blitzkrieg didn't work at all, he tried several times and failed. What is happening now is a regular war on several fronts with civilian casualties. So what is going to happen if months pass and Ukraine is still fighting? Will he be able to swallow it? Many people are afraid he is too megalomaniac to do that and when pressed can start being more brutal than he is now. He is regarded as a war criminal already, what else does he have to lose? Those who listen to Russian propaganda will believe all he says anyway; the rest can be kept in order by an extended police state.
- zie 5y agoLOL. Zero chance :)
- vkou 5y agoI don't know about that, but if that happens, I do know that Ukraine will definitely, and unfortunately assume responsibility for Russia's sanctions.
- sovietmudkipz 5y agoDidn't that already happen when the Ukraine split away from Russia in the 90s? It would be funny if it happened again.
- HWR_14 5y agoIt's not a corporate merger. Who is going to make Russia pay Ukraine's debt?
- lostdog 5y agoThere's a long history of other countries deciding that your country still owes them money, and that they're entitled to collect. In Mexico, for example, Benito Juarez's faction won a civil war, and then refused to pay the debt run up by the enemy faction. The French, who loaned the money, didn't care, and invaded Mexico. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benito_Ju%C3%A1rez#Ju%C3%A1rez_and_the_French_Intervention_(1862-67) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benito_Ju%C3%A1rez#Ju%C3%A1rez... When Venezuela defaulted on its debt in 1902, Germany sent a fleet to blockade its port, demanding that Venezuela pay customs duties on every good that passed through the port until the debt was repaid. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezuelan_crisis_of_1902%E2%80%931903 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezuelan_crisis_of_1902%E2%8... Countries have been forced to repay debts that maybe they didn't deserve, and penalized in extremely severe ways when they didn't pay. You could imagine the U.S. and Europe lending Ukraine a ton of money right now, and then claiming that it becomes Russia's debt if Ukraine is conquered, and seizing assets to force repayment. It would be a pretty crazy thing to do, but hey, the 21st century is already chill so whatever.
- HWR_14 5y agoSorry, a large country can certainly enforce debt collections. Part of me is thinking how depressing, but realistic, it would be that the west would be more aggressive in seeking repayment than punishing Russia for invading. Thanks for your examples. I was thinking about post-WWI Germany. The breadth of examples certainly helps move away from that kind of punitive and world war starting example. Which makes it more realistic. Maybe a statement from the West that this will be the case can encourage Russia to not aim for totally conquering the Ukraine. I can see a second salami slice by Russia as an option.
- TrapLord_Rhodo 5y agolol - with such fragrant disregard for international law in attacking the nation and you think they are gunna give two fucks about who the previous regime owed money to?
- mFixman 5y agoIf Russia wins the war the government will probably not claim that Ukraine is part of Russia. They can make a couple of puppet states that take Ukraine's old debt plus the cost of the Russian invasion.
- dragonwriter 5y ago> If Russia wins the war the government will probably not claim that Ukraine is part of Russia. Putin already made that claim (blaming Lenin for creating Ukraine as a polity from properly Russian territory and Stalin for transferring additional properly Russian territory to it) when announcing the war, as did Russian state media just today, in what seems to be a pre-written victory announcement that was then deleted.
- int_19h 5y agoRussia won't annex Ukraine outright. The most likely scenario is establishment of a puppet state after ripping off some territories - Donetsk and Lugansk, almost certainly, and likely also a land corridor to Crimea. The fact that Belarus is onboard makes me think that there might also be some plans of some kind of "East Slavic Union" faux-confederation into which the new Ukraine puppet state would be forced, perhaps within the already-existing framework of the Union State of Russia and Belarus.
- Bud 5y agoNeed non-paywalled version of this if possible, please?
- caaqil 5y agohttps://archive.is/uWwFB https://archive.is/uWwFB
- nimbius 5y agoits at least interesting how neither of these organizations cared when the US invaded Iraq, and Russia followed roughly the same playbook we did in declaring a pretext.
- paxys 5y agoIt's in neither organization's wheelhouse to care about politics. USA was capable of paying its debts during and after the invasion of Iraq. It should be clear to everyone that Russia is not.
- duxup 5y agoThe US wasn’t at any kind of risk that Russia is.
- shmatt 5y agoPretty sure Bank of America, Chase and Citibank didn’t get disconnected from SWIFT during that war you’re mentioning If they had, it definitely would have the same effect
- ch4s3 5y agoYou're both technically incorrect as others have pointed out and engaging in whataboutism, which is in terrible taste.
- justin66 5y ago> its at least interesting how neither of these organizations cared when the US invaded Iraq Is it your opinion that the United States' invasion of Iraq significantly decreased the likelihood the US would repay its bonds?
- rwaksmunski 5y agoRIP Ruble.
- Terry_Roll 5y agoI wonder how much crypto currency Russia has. That would get around some of the SWIFT restrictions, but even Bitcoins doesnt trade as much currency as SWIFT or the VISA network. In fact I think there is only one crypto currency (not Bitcoins) which can match the Visa network's ability to handle a massive number of transactions. The Visa network reportedly can handle more transactions than anything else, but with SWIFT I would imagine that handles fewer transactions of the highest value.
- redisman 5y agoBTC value could be sanctioned too. It’s price is very much like a leveraged stock market fund already. If they kill let’s say 5 of the biggest exchanges in the world then BTC will be worth $1 again
- vkou 5y agoThe fastest way to kill BTC off is for a sanctioned Russia to start using it to circumvent currency controls.
- aaaaaaaaata 5y agoDisagree, increases implied value/uniqueness, increases relatove demand&scarcity.
- 01100011 5y agoI seem to remember hearing months ago that the Russian Central bank has been on a gold buying spree. Pretty wise when you know you're going to start a war, especially when you consider how war drives up the price of safe havens like gold.
- Terry_Roll 5y ago
- GamerUncle 5y agohttps://web.archive.org/web/20220226230400/reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/moodys-puts-russia-ukraine-ratings-review-downgrade-2022-02-25/ https://web.archive.org/web/20220226230400/reuters.com/marke...
- pfdietz 5y agoI feel sad for the people in Ukraine, and in Russia, who don't deserve any of this.
- dtx1 5y agoThe police officers arresting and beating peaceful anti-war protestors in russuia deserve this just as much as the oligarchs. Peoples are responsible for their governments
- hmmokidk 5y agoThe police are the strong arm of the government.
- adventured 5y agoCenturies of accepted, tought, reinforced rotten Russian culture is what keeps perpetuating the Russian conquering machine that keeps attacking its neighbors in the lust for empire. The US is a perpetual war machine too (one might point out)? And yet there's Canada, not concerned in the least about being conquered and annexed by the dramatically larger and more powerful global military superpower to its south. And to the south, Mexico is actually invading the US more than the other way around; Mexico isn't much worried at all about the US invading and annexing its land. Russia's culture is different, it's still a power and conquest obsessed culture, it constantly dreams of greatness by empire in the old mold, and it still has a lot in common with the cultural beliefs of conquest that led to WW1 and WW2. The Germans were similarly culturally obsessed with power, conquest and ethnicity, it's what Hitler swam in intellectually prior to his ascension to political power in Germany. The German people superstate was his dream. Putin even shares the obsession with ethnicity that Hitler did, he regards there as being a wholly bonded "Russian" people (as though the people in Kyiv or Moscow are connected to the Russian people in East Asia, and so on). In the mind of someone like Putin, anything can be justified in the name of that ethnic obsession, the notion of building / re-assembling a Russian ethnic superstate. The reason Russia always behaves the way it does, is that it's a requirement of its very existence. If you remove their power and conquest lust, Russia will cease to exist. It would rip apart rapidly. The supposed Russian people superstate that Putin dreams of, is actually a lot of different peoples with little in common spanning vast territory (and obviously regionally the Russian people have a lot in common). It doesn't really exist as he imagines it. It can only be held together through the extreme use of force, because it's a nation that shouldn't exist. When something particularly shouldn't exist, nature will pull very hard on it (in relation to the extent to which it shouldn't exist), trying to take it apart (which is actually entropy grinding away on something hyper inefficient and difficult to order); and eventually, it won't exist, one way or another. Russia should be numerous nations and the next task for the West re NATO and Russia, is to see that that outcome is accomplished. Destablize Russia over the coming decades and see it broken into several new nations, just as the USSR was broken up before it. Putin won't live to see Russia split into several nations, but that outcome will happen this century. And that split outcome will be vastly better for everyone inside of Russia, it would greatly increase the potential for Western Russia (which would take the formal title of Russia) to become an affluent, peaceful state, no longer requiring the constant application of extreme force to just hold the state together (ie Russia would no longer have to govern in the model of always being afraid of its own people, dedicating its resources to oppressing those people, and could instead dedicate its vast resources to investing in its people and building prosperity). Huge sections of Russia would vote tomorrow morning to split off if they were freely allowed to.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- hereforphone 5y agoSo we use the junk rating as a political tool now. In other words, it means nothing objective anymore.
- Proven 5y ago[dead]
- TameAntelope 5y agoWhat’s political about a country’s ability to pay its debts being based on a country’s current sanctions? This is a consequence of the sanctions, not itself a sanction.
- Mikeb85 5y agoI mean, sanctions are a massive risk for prospective investors... Just realistic.
- Yuioup 5y agoCut Russia off the Internet. DO IT NOW!!
- partiallypro 5y agoHow would this help? Also it's impossible.
- jacquesm 5y agoIt definitely isn't impossible.
- partiallypro 5y agoYou could cut them off from the Western part of the internet, but not all of the internet. The world is much bigger than just Western powers. It would be impossible, and even if it were possible, it would be easily circumvented.