6 ms·

A lot of weapons are a lot scarier when you don't know what they are and what their impact is. You can't kick the BRICS out of SWIFT and expect the world to sti

A lot of weapons are a lot scarier when you don't know what they are and what their impact is. You can't kick the BRICS out of SWIFT and expect the world to still take you serious. Decades of crippling sanctions have also taught China and Russia how to bypass altogether with certain countries. Short term it will probably sting, but long term its a death sentence to SWIFTs position.

MattGaiser 5y ago
Isn't the fact that the US controls it already a death sentence to it as far as Russia and China are concerned?
- dangerlibrary 5y ago
  Yes.
- wolverine876 5y ago
  They don't have the power to change it, though China might eventually. And they do benefit from it - international relations are rational, not so partisan; just because a competitor is involved doesn't make it wrong. The rules-based, US-led interational order brings enormous benefits to China and Russia.
jeswin 5y ago
> You can't kick the BRICS out of SWIFT Why would you need to kick BRICS out of SWIFT? India is a US ally on Quad, South Africa and Brazil aren't allied with Russia either. And at this point, no one is talking about kicking China out of SWIFT.
- lobocinza 5y ago
  Brazil is completely dependent on China for export/import. Current president is a Putin fan boy and tyrant wannabe.
- abhishekjha 5y ago
  > India is a US ally on Quad India has a different perspective for what does that exactly entail. India has its own UPI and Rupay systems. It sure would see SWIFT falling.
- throwaway4good 5y ago
  Are you sure that India is an US ally wrt. Russia?
  - Paradigma11 5y ago
    I am. Russia is moving towards china and so is moving away from india.
  - parthdesai 5y ago
    Well considering US was ready to bomb India and it was a Russian submarine that saved India, it makes sense. Also don't forget about US supplying arms and aid to Pakistan which Pakistan in turn would use to arm Talibans and Kashmiri insurgents. On top of that, US was pretty vocal about wanting sanctions on India for testing out nuclear weapons. Given the history, who would be an ally in that case?
    - wolverine876 5y ago
      > US was ready to bomb India and it was a Russian submarine that saved India ? > Given the history, who would be an ally in that case? If such history prevented alliances, there would be none. France and Germany are allies. India and the US are allies when their interests align - less so regarding Ukraine, more so regarding China - which depends significantly, but not completely, and especially in the long term, on their values (democracy, human rights, etc.) aligning.
      - sinyug 5y ago
        > ? In 1971, the US actively supported the genocide committed in East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) by the Pakistani Army. When the Indian Army intervened, Nixon sent the 7th Fleet that included the USS Enterprise into the Bay of Bengal to intimidate India. In response, the USSR sent their own flotilla.[1][2][3][4] [1] 1971 War: How Russia sank Nixon’s gunboat diplomacy (https://www.rbth.com/articles/2011/12/20/1971_war_how_russia_sank_nixons_gunboat_diplomacy_14041 https://www.rbth.com/articles/2011/12/20/1971_war_how_russia...) [2] 1971 War: How the US tried to corner India (https://www.rediff.com/news/2006/dec/26claude.htm https://www.rediff.com/news/2006/dec/26claude.htm) [3] US forces had orders to target Indian Army in 1971 (https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/US-forces-had-orders-to-target-Indian-Army-in-1971/articleshow/10625404.cms https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/US-forces-had-orde...) [4] Bangladesh Liberation War - US and USSR (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangladesh_Liberation_War#US_and_USSR https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangladesh_Liberation_War#US_a...)
- nradov 5y ago
  India is only loosely a US ally on issues of mutual interest. They also have fairly good relations with Russia and don't much care what happens to Ukraine.
- themgt 5y ago
  The Quad is threadbare pseudo-alliance specifically designed around containing China, period. India has long been friendly with Russia and is non-committal on the Ukraine situation and is apparently talking about "how to establish a rupee payment mechanism for trade with Russia to soften the blow of Western sanctions"[1] It would be wise to assess how much the rest of the world is willing to go along with isolating Russia before we go in sanction-guns blazing and wind up isolating ourselves instead. [1] https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1497162914586898475 https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1497162914586898475
MR4D 5y ago
Swift won't die until either the US Dollar dies, or the government replaces it with something newer. EDIT: Technically, the US Government doesn't "control" SWIFT, but through banking regulations, their influence is way bigger than it looks than their 2 board seats would suggest.
- tsimionescu 5y ago
  The supremacy of the US dollar is partly held up by SWIFT. If most countries move to non-SWIFT payments, the US dollar will weaken.
  - MR4D 5y ago
    The Dollar may indeed weaken, but then Americans will not be able to afford to buy as much imported goods from other countries, which will hurt those exporters. China will probably lose the most.
- MR4D 5y ago
  I notice this post got some downvotes. My statement is not a political one, it is a practical one. Anyone who works with SWIFT understands that the system exists at the pleasure of the Americans. If the US decides to not allow SWIFT, then it will disappear quickly. Likewise, the US has the ability to regulate, and does regulate, the systems that are used for transferring money. And to quote from the FFIEC [0], who regulates this stuff (well, one of the regulators at least): "SWIFT is used to transmit foreign exchange confirmations, debit and credit entry confirmations, statements, collections, and documentary credits." That's a ton of US Dollars that aren't going away, so SWIFT won't either. [0] - https://bsaaml.ffiec.gov/manual/RisksAssociatedWithMoneyLaunderingAndTerroristFinancing/08 https://bsaaml.ffiec.gov/manual/RisksAssociatedWithMoneyLaun...
wolverine876 5y ago
> Decades of crippling sanctions have also taught China and Russia how to bypass altogether with certain countries. What crippling sanctions have been imposed on China and Russia for decades? China's economy in particular has been very involved in international trade - probably more than any other.

MattGaiser 5y ago

Isn't the fact that the US controls it already a death sentence to it as far as Russia and China are concerned?

dangerlibrary 5y ago
Yes.
wolverine876 5y ago
They don't have the power to change it, though China might eventually. And they do benefit from it - international relations are rational, not so partisan; just because a competitor is involved doesn't make it wrong. The rules-based, US-led interational order brings enormous benefits to China and Russia.

jeswin 5y ago

> You can't kick the BRICS out of SWIFT Why would you need to kick BRICS out of SWIFT? India is a US ally on Quad, South Africa and Brazil aren't allied with Russia either. And at this point, no one is talking about kicking China out of SWIFT.

lobocinza 5y ago
Brazil is completely dependent on China for export/import. Current president is a Putin fan boy and tyrant wannabe.
abhishekjha 5y ago
> India is a US ally on Quad India has a different perspective for what does that exactly entail. India has its own UPI and Rupay systems. It sure would see SWIFT falling.
throwaway4good 5y ago
Are you sure that India is an US ally wrt. Russia?
- Paradigma11 5y ago
  I am. Russia is moving towards china and so is moving away from india.
- parthdesai 5y ago
  Well considering US was ready to bomb India and it was a Russian submarine that saved India, it makes sense. Also don't forget about US supplying arms and aid to Pakistan which Pakistan in turn would use to arm Talibans and Kashmiri insurgents. On top of that, US was pretty vocal about wanting sanctions on India for testing out nuclear weapons. Given the history, who would be an ally in that case?
  - wolverine876 5y ago
    > US was ready to bomb India and it was a Russian submarine that saved India ? > Given the history, who would be an ally in that case? If such history prevented alliances, there would be none. France and Germany are allies. India and the US are allies when their interests align - less so regarding Ukraine, more so regarding China - which depends significantly, but not completely, and especially in the long term, on their values (democracy, human rights, etc.) aligning.
    - sinyug 5y ago
      > ? In 1971, the US actively supported the genocide committed in East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) by the Pakistani Army. When the Indian Army intervened, Nixon sent the 7th Fleet that included the USS Enterprise into the Bay of Bengal to intimidate India. In response, the USSR sent their own flotilla.[1][2][3][4] [1] 1971 War: How Russia sank Nixon’s gunboat diplomacy (https://www.rbth.com/articles/2011/12/20/1971_war_how_russia_sank_nixons_gunboat_diplomacy_14041 https://www.rbth.com/articles/2011/12/20/1971_war_how_russia...) [2] 1971 War: How the US tried to corner India (https://www.rediff.com/news/2006/dec/26claude.htm https://www.rediff.com/news/2006/dec/26claude.htm) [3] US forces had orders to target Indian Army in 1971 (https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/US-forces-had-orders-to-target-Indian-Army-in-1971/articleshow/10625404.cms https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/US-forces-had-orde...) [4] Bangladesh Liberation War - US and USSR (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangladesh_Liberation_War#US_and_USSR https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangladesh_Liberation_War#US_a...)
nradov 5y ago
India is only loosely a US ally on issues of mutual interest. They also have fairly good relations with Russia and don't much care what happens to Ukraine.
themgt 5y ago
The Quad is threadbare pseudo-alliance specifically designed around containing China, period. India has long been friendly with Russia and is non-committal on the Ukraine situation and is apparently talking about "how to establish a rupee payment mechanism for trade with Russia to soften the blow of Western sanctions"[1] It would be wise to assess how much the rest of the world is willing to go along with isolating Russia before we go in sanction-guns blazing and wind up isolating ourselves instead. [1] https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1497162914586898475 https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1497162914586898475

MR4D 5y ago

Swift won't die until either the US Dollar dies, or the government replaces it with something newer. EDIT: Technically, the US Government doesn't "control" SWIFT, but through banking regulations, their influence is way bigger than it looks than their 2 board seats would suggest.

tsimionescu 5y ago
The supremacy of the US dollar is partly held up by SWIFT. If most countries move to non-SWIFT payments, the US dollar will weaken.
- MR4D 5y ago
  The Dollar may indeed weaken, but then Americans will not be able to afford to buy as much imported goods from other countries, which will hurt those exporters. China will probably lose the most.
MR4D 5y ago
I notice this post got some downvotes. My statement is not a political one, it is a practical one. Anyone who works with SWIFT understands that the system exists at the pleasure of the Americans. If the US decides to not allow SWIFT, then it will disappear quickly. Likewise, the US has the ability to regulate, and does regulate, the systems that are used for transferring money. And to quote from the FFIEC [0], who regulates this stuff (well, one of the regulators at least): "SWIFT is used to transmit foreign exchange confirmations, debit and credit entry confirmations, statements, collections, and documentary credits." That's a ton of US Dollars that aren't going away, so SWIFT won't either. [0] - https://bsaaml.ffiec.gov/manual/RisksAssociatedWithMoneyLaunderingAndTerroristFinancing/08 https://bsaaml.ffiec.gov/manual/RisksAssociatedWithMoneyLaun...

wolverine876 5y ago

> Decades of crippling sanctions have also taught China and Russia how to bypass altogether with certain countries. What crippling sanctions have been imposed on China and Russia for decades? China's economy in particular has been very involved in international trade - probably more than any other.