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Invasion could drive 5M Ukrainians to flee abroad – U.N

134 points by zx85wes 5y ago

neural_thing 5y ago
Europe is likely to see unprecedented amounts of refugees soon. War refugees from Ukraine, economic refugees from Turkey, famine refugees from all over.
- schnitzelstoat 5y ago
  Turkey also has a lot of war refugees from Syria etc. too which it has agreements with the EU not to let pass into the EU. I think Turkey could yet recover though.
  - DSingularity 5y ago
    Why did Turkey agree to that? Hopes for EU membership?
    - tut-urut-utut 5y ago
      Turkey get paid quite well by the EU to keep the refugees / migrants there. It's a net profit for them. Moreover, they can, and use those same refugees to blackmail the EU whenever it's convenient to them.
    - icegreentea2 5y ago
      Here's a review article on the agreement: https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/eu-turkey-deal-five-years-on https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/eu-turkey-deal-five-... Snipping out the specific sentence: "In exchange, the European Union agreed to resettle Syrian refugees from Turkey on a one-to-one basis, reduce visa restrictions for Turkish citizens, pay 6 billion euros in aid to Turkey for Syrian migrant communities, update the customs union, and re-energize stalled talks regarding Turkey’s accession to the European Union"
    - mschuster91 5y ago
      Simple, money: Greece closed down their borders for Syrian refugees many years ago, as did everyone else on the so-called "balkan route". In exchange for an awful lot of EU money (six billion € ) to "house migrants", Erdolf promised to have his coast guards prevent people from fleeing to Greece, which together with brutal and illegal pushbacks by the Greek Coast Guard and Frontex led to a collapse of that route, but still not an end, there are regular deaths. The Greek Coast Guard actually got accused a week ago of having murdered refugees by throwing them into the sea to drown [1]. In 2020, Erdolf told refugees that the borders to Greece had been opened and bused thousands of people to the borders, with two refugees being executed by Greek border police [2] during the subsequentriots. In the end, the situation was settled by the EU paying half a billion euros to the Turkish dictator [3]. [1]: https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/griechenland-eu-grenzschuetzer-sollen-fluechtlinge-ins-meer-geworfen-haben-a-26747b1b-58f6-4f48-a3fe-50284ddca62d https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/griechenland-eu-grenzschuetze... [2]: https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2020-03/griechenland-tuerkei-eu-grenze-konflikt https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2020-03/griechenland-tue... [3]: https://www.nzz.ch/international/die-eu-und-die-tuerkei-brauchen-einen-neues-fluechtlingsabkommen-ld.1563124?reduced=true https://www.nzz.ch/international/die-eu-und-die-tuerkei-brau...
- kubb 5y ago
  climate refugees about to be a thing. it's gonna get ugly
  - haunter 5y ago
    Not sure why are you downvoted cause this will be a really thing very soon
  - irrational 5y ago
    I keep reading that the Middle East will become uninhabitable this century. All those people will have to go somewhere. Heading North to Europe seems like the most likely outcome.
    - sharken 5y ago
      Likely outcome yes, good idea no. Sadly the Middle East culture and religion is incompatible with the one in Europe. So if this scenario should play out, we will see middle east conditions with unrest everywhere. Better to let the migration go to compatible countries such as Turkey.
      - zo1 5y ago
      - 4ggr0 5y ago
        Sorry but that's just straight-up right-wing propaganda. Don't know if you're acting in bad faith or just repeating things you've read or heard somewhere, but statements like these are just disgusting to me as a Caucasian european who grew up with friends who have parents from the middle east. I'm an atheist, some of my friends are muslim, yet we don't struggle to be friends because of that. You are probably talking about very conservative people who like to hang gay people and all of that funny stuff, but just making a blank statement that this is true for all of the middle east is very wrong. EDIT: Was never down-voted so fast on HN, is the majority of HN really so negative towards people from the middle east?
- nradov 5y ago
  This is becoming one of the defining issues of the 21st century. What do we do with all the surplus people? In the past most countries actually wanted higher populations as that meant more cannon-fodder for their armies, more workers for their factories, more farmers to till their fields. But now low-skilled poor people are seen as nothing but a burden, to the extent that wealthy countries will literally pay other countries to take them. There doesn't seem to be any solution. I expect we'll see some ugly incidents in the next few years where masses of desperate migrants try to rush the EU and US borders. Will border guards fire on civilians and commit mass murder to keep them out?
  - sneedandchuck 5y ago
    >Will border guards fire on civilians and commit mass murder to keep them out? There is no other option... If let in the world pop increases, if not the world pop decreases. We are in a race trying to continuously improve technologically to make up for the very same problems caused by technology. Perhaps mass death events which we defeated in recent years are precisely what is needed for a "correction" in our global hubris. Of course wasteful consumerism in the first world should also be corrected during this period, and hopefully for longer afterwards. As a final thought, although I know it is a false equivalency in many ways, consider the idea that the mass of potential migrants will be looked upon by some countries in the way that Ukraine currently views Russia, the self determination of Ukrainians have put them directly opposed to the Russian invasion, so for many (and likely the majority) of Ukrainians there is no other option but to fire back and employ strict measures.
    - tsol 5y ago
      >There is no other option... If let in the world pop increases, if not the world pop decreases. Interesting you bring that up. Population in European countries isn't even at replacement levels. They actually need immigrants to keep their economies from collapsing on retirees. Making statements based on the world population as a whole seems irrelevant, China and India play a huge part in the world population increase yet they have no relation to this. >Perhaps mass death events which we defeated in recent years are precisely what is needed for a "correction" in our global hubris. And those mass death events, of course, should involve immigrants and not Europeans? Or, you? These conversations about population control always seem to trend in the same direction.. the same people who hate overpopulation of humans never want to start the solution with their own families.
crate_barre 5y ago
I anticipate a police state in Ukraine if Russia completes the invasion and negotiates a non-NATO entrance for Ukraine with the west, similar to Hong Kong. What a disaster. If I was Ukrainian, I’d get the living fuck out of there now before living under those conditions.
- seer 5y ago
  Sad thing is that now with conscription, if you are male 18-55, Ukraine side will force you to fight that war, at least as far as I understand it. What a fucked up world we live in…
  - tut-urut-utut 5y ago
  - crate_barre 5y ago
    I think we underestimated what Nuclear weapons actually did to the world. The countries that don’t have it are pretty much sitting ducks unless a Nuclear power is willing to defend them. We cannot defend Ukraine against the most unjustifiable war ever, and they can’t defend themselves.
    - vkou 5y ago
      NATO could have defended it, but it didn't want to. Nothing stopped it from moving in four months ago. Putin wasn't going to start a suicidal nuclear war over it. MAD only works to deter against existential threats. Not being able to invade a neighbour is not an existential threat. Being invaded can be one, though.
    - newuser94303 5y ago
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Ukraine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Ukraine Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons for security assurances. The lesson is that if you have nuclear weapons, you do not get attacked - North Korea. You also get to attack other countries. Russia, USA.
agilob 5y ago
Poland is ready to take 2M Ukrainians, same for Romania, the country made an announcement today they can take 500k refugees today. Migrants are allowed to cross the border on any ID, even expired will be accepted.
- yrgulation 5y ago
  When i called romania’s border police to ask if ukrainians can enter without a visa they said those with biometric passports dont need a visa but actually said those without need a visa. When i asked if visas can be given on the spot they simply hang up on me. Maybe something changed but for an eu and nato member state romania has a lot to work on. Edit: typo.
  - 323 5y ago
    I wouldn't put too much value in those phone-calls. It was the same with Covid rules, you got different responses based on exactly who you'd call, confusion all around, and authorities contradicting each other. A romanian article from 1 hour ago says that as you said, with biometric passport you don't need a visa, but it also says that with a non-biometric passport you will receive a 3 month tourist visa on the spot. It also says that you can enter without any kind of passport at all, according to international refugee rules. But you might be handled different, liked being forced to go to a refugee camp (don't know). https://romania.europalibera.org/a/acte-intrare-romania-ucraina/31722975.html https://romania.europalibera.org/a/acte-intrare-romania-ucra...
    - yrgulation 5y ago
      Great thank you. Albeit the rudeness of romanian public servants appears to be well established and has nothing to do with preparedness.
      - ChuckNorris89 5y ago
        >rudeness of romanian public servants appears to be well established and has nothing to do with preparedness. Thier rudeness is legendary in Romania. I assumed it's because we are a poorer country with a rough past that traumatized a generation, but I've seen equal levels of rudeness sometimes from the public servants in Austria and those earn way more than their Romanian counterparts and get much better benefits and working conditions from the state and didn't go through famine 35 years ago. So assholes will be assholes regardless, just because they know they can't be fired, and are usually venting their personal failures and frustrations on those in weaker positions who can't fight back (foreigners, immigrants), just like how you see people being rude to employees in the service sector. Anyway, I hope you find safety and know that you're welcome in Romania.
kerneloftruth 5y ago
- ne0flex 5y ago
  Why is it odd? He's in Russia. Pretty sure he knows that if he speaks out about it, he'll either be deported or arrested.
  - rajin444 5y ago
    I think that’s the point. He’s not very principled. He’d be the first modern hero we’ve had if he came back and forced the government to imprison him.
    - medstrom 5y ago
      It'd make very little difference for anyone else if you get yourself arrested just because. Besides, he's done his part. Why require your heroes to continue working for you after their first act of heroism? That seems unfair.
      - rajin444 5y ago
        > heroes to continue working for you after their first act of heroism This is exactly what a hero who is principled would do. This is the literal thing that separates them from regular people.
        thatguy0900 5y ago
        Directly antogonizing the most powerful government and spy agencies in the world in order to tell the world about their wrongdoings is enough heroism for me. I don't need him to be a martyr. If he lives out the rest of his life safely in comfort I'd say he's earned it. Demanding anyone who's done a good thing to sacrifice themselves at the alter or cease being considered good will just lead to noone doing good things.
      - 5y ago
cm2187 5y ago
There are also a lot of young Russians who aren’t thrilled to be drafted in the Russian army.
- hw67 5y ago
  The EU should have some sort ot free citizenship offer to defecting Russian soldiers. Russia might have more weapons but keeping 100k troops feed in what is going to increasingly hostile areas is no simple thing.
  - hogrider 5y ago
    They'd be 50% actual spies if you let them defect just like that.
- Klaster_1 5y ago
  Same for other people. The country you wanted to flee away to from the repressive regime and economic decline now denies visas? Now you have to look for other opportunities. I suspect people who tend to leave Russia aren't pro-putin and have decent education and sought after skills, not sure what forcing them to stay achieves.
999900000999 5y ago
Considering the Holdormor, I'd be fleeing too. Life under Russian occupation doesn't sound like a good time. Still I don't see Ukraine winning this, plus even in peacetime you'll do better in Romania , Poland or Germany. At least from an economic point of view. The best case scenario at this point is a ceasefire is declared, with Russian troops remaining in much of the East. Even if the War ends today, still expect tons of refugees. Much of the economic base has already been destroyed. Given the option of fleeing West, being able to build a better, safer life... Or living under constant threat of another Russian invasion. Which would you pick ?

134 points by zx85wes 5y ago

Europe is likely to see unprecedented amounts of refugees soon. War refugees from Ukraine, economic refugees from Turkey, famine refugees from all over.

schnitzelstoat 5y ago
Turkey also has a lot of war refugees from Syria etc. too which it has agreements with the EU not to let pass into the EU. I think Turkey could yet recover though.
- DSingularity 5y ago
  Why did Turkey agree to that? Hopes for EU membership?
  - tut-urut-utut 5y ago
    Turkey get paid quite well by the EU to keep the refugees / migrants there. It's a net profit for them. Moreover, they can, and use those same refugees to blackmail the EU whenever it's convenient to them.
  - icegreentea2 5y ago
    Here's a review article on the agreement: https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/eu-turkey-deal-five-years-on https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/eu-turkey-deal-five-... Snipping out the specific sentence: "In exchange, the European Union agreed to resettle Syrian refugees from Turkey on a one-to-one basis, reduce visa restrictions for Turkish citizens, pay 6 billion euros in aid to Turkey for Syrian migrant communities, update the customs union, and re-energize stalled talks regarding Turkey’s accession to the European Union"
  - mschuster91 5y ago
    Simple, money: Greece closed down their borders for Syrian refugees many years ago, as did everyone else on the so-called "balkan route". In exchange for an awful lot of EU money (six billion € ) to "house migrants", Erdolf promised to have his coast guards prevent people from fleeing to Greece, which together with brutal and illegal pushbacks by the Greek Coast Guard and Frontex led to a collapse of that route, but still not an end, there are regular deaths. The Greek Coast Guard actually got accused a week ago of having murdered refugees by throwing them into the sea to drown [1]. In 2020, Erdolf told refugees that the borders to Greece had been opened and bused thousands of people to the borders, with two refugees being executed by Greek border police [2] during the subsequentriots. In the end, the situation was settled by the EU paying half a billion euros to the Turkish dictator [3]. [1]: https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/griechenland-eu-grenzschuetzer-sollen-fluechtlinge-ins-meer-geworfen-haben-a-26747b1b-58f6-4f48-a3fe-50284ddca62d https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/griechenland-eu-grenzschuetze... [2]: https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2020-03/griechenland-tuerkei-eu-grenze-konflikt https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2020-03/griechenland-tue... [3]: https://www.nzz.ch/international/die-eu-und-die-tuerkei-brauchen-einen-neues-fluechtlingsabkommen-ld.1563124?reduced=true https://www.nzz.ch/international/die-eu-und-die-tuerkei-brau...
kubb 5y ago
climate refugees about to be a thing. it's gonna get ugly
- haunter 5y ago
  Not sure why are you downvoted cause this will be a really thing very soon
- irrational 5y ago
  I keep reading that the Middle East will become uninhabitable this century. All those people will have to go somewhere. Heading North to Europe seems like the most likely outcome.
  - sharken 5y ago
    Likely outcome yes, good idea no. Sadly the Middle East culture and religion is incompatible with the one in Europe. So if this scenario should play out, we will see middle east conditions with unrest everywhere. Better to let the migration go to compatible countries such as Turkey.
    - zo1 5y ago
    - 4ggr0 5y ago
      Sorry but that's just straight-up right-wing propaganda. Don't know if you're acting in bad faith or just repeating things you've read or heard somewhere, but statements like these are just disgusting to me as a Caucasian european who grew up with friends who have parents from the middle east. I'm an atheist, some of my friends are muslim, yet we don't struggle to be friends because of that. You are probably talking about very conservative people who like to hang gay people and all of that funny stuff, but just making a blank statement that this is true for all of the middle east is very wrong. EDIT: Was never down-voted so fast on HN, is the majority of HN really so negative towards people from the middle east?
nradov 5y ago
This is becoming one of the defining issues of the 21st century. What do we do with all the surplus people? In the past most countries actually wanted higher populations as that meant more cannon-fodder for their armies, more workers for their factories, more farmers to till their fields. But now low-skilled poor people are seen as nothing but a burden, to the extent that wealthy countries will literally pay other countries to take them. There doesn't seem to be any solution. I expect we'll see some ugly incidents in the next few years where masses of desperate migrants try to rush the EU and US borders. Will border guards fire on civilians and commit mass murder to keep them out?
- sneedandchuck 5y ago
  >Will border guards fire on civilians and commit mass murder to keep them out? There is no other option... If let in the world pop increases, if not the world pop decreases. We are in a race trying to continuously improve technologically to make up for the very same problems caused by technology. Perhaps mass death events which we defeated in recent years are precisely what is needed for a "correction" in our global hubris. Of course wasteful consumerism in the first world should also be corrected during this period, and hopefully for longer afterwards. As a final thought, although I know it is a false equivalency in many ways, consider the idea that the mass of potential migrants will be looked upon by some countries in the way that Ukraine currently views Russia, the self determination of Ukrainians have put them directly opposed to the Russian invasion, so for many (and likely the majority) of Ukrainians there is no other option but to fire back and employ strict measures.
  - tsol 5y ago
    >There is no other option... If let in the world pop increases, if not the world pop decreases. Interesting you bring that up. Population in European countries isn't even at replacement levels. They actually need immigrants to keep their economies from collapsing on retirees. Making statements based on the world population as a whole seems irrelevant, China and India play a huge part in the world population increase yet they have no relation to this. >Perhaps mass death events which we defeated in recent years are precisely what is needed for a "correction" in our global hubris. And those mass death events, of course, should involve immigrants and not Europeans? Or, you? These conversations about population control always seem to trend in the same direction.. the same people who hate overpopulation of humans never want to start the solution with their own families.

crate_barre 5y ago

I anticipate a police state in Ukraine if Russia completes the invasion and negotiates a non-NATO entrance for Ukraine with the west, similar to Hong Kong. What a disaster. If I was Ukrainian, I’d get the living fuck out of there now before living under those conditions.

seer 5y ago
Sad thing is that now with conscription, if you are male 18-55, Ukraine side will force you to fight that war, at least as far as I understand it. What a fucked up world we live in…
- tut-urut-utut 5y ago
- crate_barre 5y ago
  I think we underestimated what Nuclear weapons actually did to the world. The countries that don’t have it are pretty much sitting ducks unless a Nuclear power is willing to defend them. We cannot defend Ukraine against the most unjustifiable war ever, and they can’t defend themselves.
  - vkou 5y ago
    NATO could have defended it, but it didn't want to. Nothing stopped it from moving in four months ago. Putin wasn't going to start a suicidal nuclear war over it. MAD only works to deter against existential threats. Not being able to invade a neighbour is not an existential threat. Being invaded can be one, though.
  - newuser94303 5y ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Ukraine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Ukraine Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons for security assurances. The lesson is that if you have nuclear weapons, you do not get attacked - North Korea. You also get to attack other countries. Russia, USA.

agilob 5y ago

Poland is ready to take 2M Ukrainians, same for Romania, the country made an announcement today they can take 500k refugees today. Migrants are allowed to cross the border on any ID, even expired will be accepted.

yrgulation 5y ago
When i called romania’s border police to ask if ukrainians can enter without a visa they said those with biometric passports dont need a visa but actually said those without need a visa. When i asked if visas can be given on the spot they simply hang up on me. Maybe something changed but for an eu and nato member state romania has a lot to work on. Edit: typo.
- 323 5y ago
  I wouldn't put too much value in those phone-calls. It was the same with Covid rules, you got different responses based on exactly who you'd call, confusion all around, and authorities contradicting each other. A romanian article from 1 hour ago says that as you said, with biometric passport you don't need a visa, but it also says that with a non-biometric passport you will receive a 3 month tourist visa on the spot. It also says that you can enter without any kind of passport at all, according to international refugee rules. But you might be handled different, liked being forced to go to a refugee camp (don't know). https://romania.europalibera.org/a/acte-intrare-romania-ucraina/31722975.html https://romania.europalibera.org/a/acte-intrare-romania-ucra...
  - yrgulation 5y ago
    Great thank you. Albeit the rudeness of romanian public servants appears to be well established and has nothing to do with preparedness.
    - ChuckNorris89 5y ago
      >rudeness of romanian public servants appears to be well established and has nothing to do with preparedness. Thier rudeness is legendary in Romania. I assumed it's because we are a poorer country with a rough past that traumatized a generation, but I've seen equal levels of rudeness sometimes from the public servants in Austria and those earn way more than their Romanian counterparts and get much better benefits and working conditions from the state and didn't go through famine 35 years ago. So assholes will be assholes regardless, just because they know they can't be fired, and are usually venting their personal failures and frustrations on those in weaker positions who can't fight back (foreigners, immigrants), just like how you see people being rude to employees in the service sector. Anyway, I hope you find safety and know that you're welcome in Romania.

kerneloftruth 5y ago

ne0flex 5y ago
Why is it odd? He's in Russia. Pretty sure he knows that if he speaks out about it, he'll either be deported or arrested.
- rajin444 5y ago
  I think that’s the point. He’s not very principled. He’d be the first modern hero we’ve had if he came back and forced the government to imprison him.
  - medstrom 5y ago
    It'd make very little difference for anyone else if you get yourself arrested just because. Besides, he's done his part. Why require your heroes to continue working for you after their first act of heroism? That seems unfair.
    - rajin444 5y ago
      > heroes to continue working for you after their first act of heroism This is exactly what a hero who is principled would do. This is the literal thing that separates them from regular people.
      - thatguy0900 5y ago
        Directly antogonizing the most powerful government and spy agencies in the world in order to tell the world about their wrongdoings is enough heroism for me. I don't need him to be a martyr. If he lives out the rest of his life safely in comfort I'd say he's earned it. Demanding anyone who's done a good thing to sacrifice themselves at the alter or cease being considered good will just lead to noone doing good things.
    - 5y ago

cm2187 5y ago

There are also a lot of young Russians who aren’t thrilled to be drafted in the Russian army.

hw67 5y ago
The EU should have some sort ot free citizenship offer to defecting Russian soldiers. Russia might have more weapons but keeping 100k troops feed in what is going to increasingly hostile areas is no simple thing.
- hogrider 5y ago
  They'd be 50% actual spies if you let them defect just like that.
Klaster_1 5y ago
Same for other people. The country you wanted to flee away to from the repressive regime and economic decline now denies visas? Now you have to look for other opportunities. I suspect people who tend to leave Russia aren't pro-putin and have decent education and sought after skills, not sure what forcing them to stay achieves.

999900000999 5y ago

Considering the Holdormor, I'd be fleeing too. Life under Russian occupation doesn't sound like a good time. Still I don't see Ukraine winning this, plus even in peacetime you'll do better in Romania , Poland or Germany. At least from an economic point of view. The best case scenario at this point is a ceasefire is declared, with Russian troops remaining in much of the East. Even if the War ends today, still expect tons of refugees. Much of the economic base has already been destroyed. Given the option of fleeing West, being able to build a better, safer life... Or living under constant threat of another Russian invasion. Which would you pick ?