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> Putin is very rational and predictive. To be honest this war does make me doubt my assption that Putin is very rational and predictive. What is the rationale

• cjbgkagh 5y ago
  CIA Director Bill Burns predicted exactly this back in 2008 when George Bush declared Ukraine would eventually join NATO.
  • eru 5y ago
    I guess they should have either made Ukraine join almost immediately, or never announced anything?
    • cjbgkagh 5y ago
      You can’t let countries with active conflicts enter NATO, you might as well declare war with Russia at that point. Russia was weaker back then so they may have resorted to nukes sooner. NATO shouldn’t have expanded eastward, or the US should have left NATO. The West has been such utter fools in our negotiations with the world, being too powerful for too long has eroded diplomatic skill and left us ignoring the legitimate grievances of our adversaries and delivering one sided ultimatums.
• fosk 5y ago
  If Ukraine becomes a NATO member, Russia won’t be able to defend it’s border from a conventional attack. By looking at a map, this is quite evident.
  • outworlder 5y ago
    What's Ukraine bringing to the table that's not already accomplished by the multiple NATO members already bordering them?
    • cutemonster 5y ago
      Not much? Nothing? I think Putin talks about NATO to mislead people, and although the logic is a bit dumb, unfortunately some people believe him
    • ciphol 5y ago
      It puts much more of central and southern Russia in missile/flight range of NATO.
  • pc2g4d 5y ago
    If Ukraine is annexed by Russia, the defense of the Baltics becomes much more difficult, as Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania then become susceptible to Russian attack. (Moldova too but they're not in NATO) In the graph of adjacent nations, Ukraine has a high betweenness centrality https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Ranking-of-centrality-values-for-countries-Measures-of-centrality-Weighted-degree_tbl1_305371341/download https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Ranking-of-centrality-va...
    • dekhn 5y ago
      +1 for the use of betweenness centrality
      • selimthegrim 5y ago
        Sadly I don't think the Russians are going to need metadata to catch Ukrainian Paul Revere.
  • jopsen 5y ago
    Russia is a tiny economy compared to NATO. With modern logistics, I don't buy the geographic argument. To be this is just Putin playing cards the rest of the civilized world have decided you can't play.
    • eru 5y ago
      Russia's economy is smaller than even Italy's.
  • cutemonster 5y ago
    Putin wouldn't be rational if he thought NATO would attack. He would instead be dumb. The things about NATO is what he says to mislead people -- and maybe that is a rational step in his restore-the-Soviet-Union dreams
  • hugh-avherald 5y ago
    The Baltic states already border Russia.
  • eru 5y ago
    If Ukraine becomes Russian, then Russia will border NATO members, too. (Because Ukraine borders NATO members.)
• tablespoon 5y ago
  > To be honest this war does make me doubt my assption that Putin is very rational and predictive. What is the rationale behind such a full-scale invasion? He accurately perceived weakness. > I don't see benefits that outweight the costs. I am happy to hear them, if they are any. His priorities are different than what you think they are/should be: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/lavrov-russia-diplomacy-ukraine/622075/ https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/lavrov-rus...: > Their intentions are different from ours too. Putin’s goal is not a flourishing, peaceful, prosperous Russia, but a Russia where he remains in charge. Lavrov’s goal is to maintain his position in the murky world of the Russian elite and, of course, to keep his money. What we mean by “interests” and what they mean by “interests” are not the same. When they listen to our diplomats, they don’t hear anything that really threatens their position, their power, their personal fortunes. And the West's "punishment" may actually enrich the people who started this war: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/22/us/politics/russia-biden-sanctions-ukraine.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/22/us/politics/russia-biden-... > And perhaps most notably, Mr. Putin and his closest aides and partners in Moscow might not suffer much themselves from sanctions, analysts say.... > Some of the hard-line nationalist men around Mr. Putin were already on a Treasury Department sanctions list and accept that they and their families will no longer have substantial ties to the United States or Europe for the rest of their lives, said Alexander Gabuev, the chair of the Russia in the Asia-Pacific Program at the Carnegie Moscow Center. > “They are the powerful everybodies in today’s Russia,” he said. “There is a lot of posh richness. They’re totally secluded. They’re the kings, and that can be secured in Russia only.” > Furthermore, because of their roles in state-owned enterprises and their business ties, they are “the very guys who are directly benefiting from the economy becoming more insulated, more detached from the outside world,” he added.
• nullifidian 5y ago
  https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/lavrov-russia-diplomacy-ukraine/622075/ https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/lavrov-rus... "Their intentions are different from ours too. Putin’s goal is not a flourishing, peaceful, prosperous Russia, but a Russia where he remains in charge. Lavrov’s goal is to maintain his position in the murky world of the Russian elite and, of course, to keep his money. What we mean by “interests” and what they mean by “interests” are not the same. When they listen to our diplomats, they don’t hear anything that really threatens their position, their power, their personal fortunes." He's psychopath-rational.
  • scyzoryk_xyz 5y ago
    Well put. Maybe when Biden is talking about how the sanctions were „designed” to hurt this is what he meant.
• ridiculous_leke 5y ago
  As per him, Ukraine should be in Russia's domain due to the shared history/culture. And he's okay to pay any price for it. A side benefit for him is that he will be added to the long array of Russian leaders (Peter, Catherine, Lenin, Stalin., etc.) who are remembered for taking decisive actions(good and bad) for the Russian nation. The "NATO Problem" is probably just a ruse to rile up support for his amibitions.
  • eru 5y ago
    > As per him, Ukraine should be in Russia's domain due to the shared history/culture. Well, by that logic Russia should give back Königsberg and eastern Poland..
    • ridiculous_leke 5y ago
      Yes, it doesn't make sense. Nobody made Russia the caretaker of all Slavs.
• scyzoryk_xyz 5y ago
  Well, my impression is similar regarding Putin, but I have also read opinions that this offensive is not the full-scale reckless invasion quite yet. Russian forces have supposedly invaded quite carefully and between each move they’re waiting to see the Ukrainian response. Like in a chess game, tit-for-tat. They are basically keeping themselves ready for anything, including a retreat or unexpected pivot. A lot points to the fact that Putin has extensively prepared and calculated the benefits and costs of all the possibilities and endgames. Everything, including how we are talking about it here is potentially a component in this strategy. What is difficult for all of us here in the West to comprehend, is how completely different the elite Russian POV is from our own. I highly recommend looking into the Gerasimov and Primakov doctrines. At the same time, Putin is pretty old and has been in power for so long that there is a real chance that he has become narcissistic. There is a real chance that he has developed a misperception of his own strength and that this is a turning point. Something similar happened to Napoleon at a certain point.