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It is also not straightforward to put a NATO ally right on Russia's vulnerable flank In taking Ukraine, Putin just put Nato on Russia’s border.

kasey_junk 5y ago
NATO has been on Russias border for going on 20 years. The Baltic states joined in 2004.
- agumonkey 5y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargement_of_NATO https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargement_of_NATO for more details did this affect Russia negatively ? from my seat it was no biggie, and nothing came out of the baltic states joining.. no threats, accident, economic problems in the news.. but maybe i'm just blind
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    From Russias POV it was.
    - agumonkey 5y ago
      I'm trying to assess how much of it is a blow to russian empire desire and paranoia, or if there were some more tangible / material effects. I can understand they really don't want a US driven group nearby for multiple reasons.
      - jacquesm 5y ago
        By Western standards it is probably seen as paranoia, by Russian standards it is seen as self defense. They have never really gotten over the implosion of the whole USSR.
        agumonkey 5y ago
        But it's nearing mania .. if their own collapse is causing them to interpret negligible events to the point of invasion, anything is on the table ?
        jacquesm 5y ago
        Agreed, anything is on the table. And that is what worries me, if you start assuming rational actors none of this makes sense but if you start assuming non-rational paranoid mafiosi with nukes it starts to all look a lot more plausible. Putin needs to succeed in subduing Ukraine or he will be thrown under a very large bus and then you have the next worry lined up: who will replace him, which could very well be worse. People seem to make the mistake of thinking about this in some kind of game theoretic way where Russia would have something to gain or lose but that's the wrong perspective, Putin couldn't care less about Russia or the Russians, what he cares about is to cling to power until he's dying, if he can't do that then his lot could well be worse.
        kasey_junk 5y ago
        I know _nothing_ about geopolitics but don’t your questions presume that the “Ukraine joins NATO” is a real reason for the invasion? If it’s an old fashioned land/riches grab then their current behavior makes perfect sense.
      - JohnBooty 5y ago
        If you're American, try to imagine America partially breaking up and Washington, Oregon, and Idaho have joined an alliance helmed by China. You're not loving it, you want to make some sharp moves to prevent more states from considering it, and you'd like to get those states back somehow in the long run. This is a wildly imperfect analogy, but...
        tremon 5y ago
        You mean an alliance helmed by Canada? Ukraine is not allying themselves with a superpower on the other side of the globe, but their western neighbours.
        saalweachter 5y ago
        I feel like "... and thirty years later ..." needs to be in there somewhere, also. If the Pacific Northwest broke off tomorrow and tried to join Canada, I may still be opposed to war simply out of pacifism, but I wouldn't be terribly shocked if we had a Civil War II over the issue. If the Pacific Northwest broke off tomorrow, the largest remaining Federal-ish government in the formerly United States recognized it as an independent country, and then thirty years from now it was contemplating an alliance with Canada...
        JohnBooty 5y ago
        I said it was a flawed analogy. =) However, in this admittedly flawed analogy, I thought it was pretty clear that Washington, Oregon, and Idaho were meant to be analogous to the multiple NATO countries already sharing borders with Russia. Putin's invasion of Ukraine is a dastardly war crime, but it didn't happen in a vacuum either. Was attempting to explain the (shitty) reasoning behind Putin's actions.
        mopsi 5y ago
        If you're American, try to imagine what other states must've done in order to get Washington, Orgon and Idaho to seek protection from China: wars, massacres, genocide. Can you imagine resettling the whole Mormon population of Idaho to the furthest corners of Alaska? A knock on the door awakens you. You're given half an hour to pack a single suitcase, and then your whole family is pushed into a cattle wagon going to Alaska. No food beyond a slice of bread per day, no other supplies while traveling there over three weeks. If babies die, their bodies are just thrown overboard by soldiers. When you arrive, you're assigned a mine to work in for free as slave labor and a dirt mound to sleep in. That's what took in Eastern Europe to seek isolation from Russia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_transfer_in_the_Soviet_Union https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_transfer_in_the_Sov...
    - bayesian_horse 5y ago
      Yes, countries have neighbors. Learn to deal with it. Those neighbors are allowed to join defensive agreements. Also Gorbatshov denied being "duped" about NATO expansion. Also Putin has no reason to be bothered by NATO troops in neighbor countries. They aren't anywhere close to invasion strength (even if you are prepared to consider they would want to despite all the treaties). It's just that the NATO troops would be in the way when Putin decides to reintegrate those neighbors too his historic empire.
      - jacquesm 5y ago
        I'm not saying I agree. It's just that Russian politics is a tad more paranoia driven than you might imagine.
        agumonkey 5y ago
        It makes few sense.. US backed off afghanistan after failure. The tone since Trump is mostly retreat. I'm just trying to understand.
        jacquesm 5y ago
        It's an internal Russian affair that just happened to spill over into the surrounding countries and that could engulf the world if not dealt with properly. Russia is practically bankrupt, infrastructure is failing they have another 5 to 10 years left and then the bill is due. This may buy them some time, or it may cost them everything.
        bayesian_horse 5y ago
        How is this buying any time? The sanctions will only make everything worse. There is no profit to be had from exploiting Ukraine, at least not comparable to the military cost and the sanctions.
        jacquesm 5y ago
rmk 5y ago
Yes, I think this will galvanize fence-sitters into accelerating the process of joining NATO, which is counterproductive for Russia.

kasey_junk 5y ago

NATO has been on Russias border for going on 20 years. The Baltic states joined in 2004.

agumonkey 5y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargement_of_NATO https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enlargement_of_NATO for more details did this affect Russia negatively ? from my seat it was no biggie, and nothing came out of the baltic states joining.. no threats, accident, economic problems in the news.. but maybe i'm just blind
- jacquesm 5y ago
  From Russias POV it was.
  - agumonkey 5y ago
    I'm trying to assess how much of it is a blow to russian empire desire and paranoia, or if there were some more tangible / material effects. I can understand they really don't want a US driven group nearby for multiple reasons.
    - jacquesm 5y ago
      By Western standards it is probably seen as paranoia, by Russian standards it is seen as self defense. They have never really gotten over the implosion of the whole USSR.
      - agumonkey 5y ago
        But it's nearing mania .. if their own collapse is causing them to interpret negligible events to the point of invasion, anything is on the table ?
        jacquesm 5y ago
        Agreed, anything is on the table. And that is what worries me, if you start assuming rational actors none of this makes sense but if you start assuming non-rational paranoid mafiosi with nukes it starts to all look a lot more plausible. Putin needs to succeed in subduing Ukraine or he will be thrown under a very large bus and then you have the next worry lined up: who will replace him, which could very well be worse. People seem to make the mistake of thinking about this in some kind of game theoretic way where Russia would have something to gain or lose but that's the wrong perspective, Putin couldn't care less about Russia or the Russians, what he cares about is to cling to power until he's dying, if he can't do that then his lot could well be worse.
        kasey_junk 5y ago
        I know _nothing_ about geopolitics but don’t your questions presume that the “Ukraine joins NATO” is a real reason for the invasion? If it’s an old fashioned land/riches grab then their current behavior makes perfect sense.
    - JohnBooty 5y ago
      If you're American, try to imagine America partially breaking up and Washington, Oregon, and Idaho have joined an alliance helmed by China. You're not loving it, you want to make some sharp moves to prevent more states from considering it, and you'd like to get those states back somehow in the long run. This is a wildly imperfect analogy, but...
      - tremon 5y ago
        You mean an alliance helmed by Canada? Ukraine is not allying themselves with a superpower on the other side of the globe, but their western neighbours.
        saalweachter 5y ago
        I feel like "... and thirty years later ..." needs to be in there somewhere, also. If the Pacific Northwest broke off tomorrow and tried to join Canada, I may still be opposed to war simply out of pacifism, but I wouldn't be terribly shocked if we had a Civil War II over the issue. If the Pacific Northwest broke off tomorrow, the largest remaining Federal-ish government in the formerly United States recognized it as an independent country, and then thirty years from now it was contemplating an alliance with Canada...
        JohnBooty 5y ago
        I said it was a flawed analogy. =) However, in this admittedly flawed analogy, I thought it was pretty clear that Washington, Oregon, and Idaho were meant to be analogous to the multiple NATO countries already sharing borders with Russia. Putin's invasion of Ukraine is a dastardly war crime, but it didn't happen in a vacuum either. Was attempting to explain the (shitty) reasoning behind Putin's actions.
      - mopsi 5y ago
        If you're American, try to imagine what other states must've done in order to get Washington, Orgon and Idaho to seek protection from China: wars, massacres, genocide. Can you imagine resettling the whole Mormon population of Idaho to the furthest corners of Alaska? A knock on the door awakens you. You're given half an hour to pack a single suitcase, and then your whole family is pushed into a cattle wagon going to Alaska. No food beyond a slice of bread per day, no other supplies while traveling there over three weeks. If babies die, their bodies are just thrown overboard by soldiers. When you arrive, you're assigned a mine to work in for free as slave labor and a dirt mound to sleep in. That's what took in Eastern Europe to seek isolation from Russia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_transfer_in_the_Soviet_Union https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_transfer_in_the_Sov...
  - bayesian_horse 5y ago
    Yes, countries have neighbors. Learn to deal with it. Those neighbors are allowed to join defensive agreements. Also Gorbatshov denied being "duped" about NATO expansion. Also Putin has no reason to be bothered by NATO troops in neighbor countries. They aren't anywhere close to invasion strength (even if you are prepared to consider they would want to despite all the treaties). It's just that the NATO troops would be in the way when Putin decides to reintegrate those neighbors too his historic empire.
    - jacquesm 5y ago
      I'm not saying I agree. It's just that Russian politics is a tad more paranoia driven than you might imagine.
      - agumonkey 5y ago
        It makes few sense.. US backed off afghanistan after failure. The tone since Trump is mostly retreat. I'm just trying to understand.
        jacquesm 5y ago
        It's an internal Russian affair that just happened to spill over into the surrounding countries and that could engulf the world if not dealt with properly. Russia is practically bankrupt, infrastructure is failing they have another 5 to 10 years left and then the bill is due. This may buy them some time, or it may cost them everything.
        bayesian_horse 5y ago
        How is this buying any time? The sanctions will only make everything worse. There is no profit to be had from exploiting Ukraine, at least not comparable to the military cost and the sanctions.
        jacquesm 5y ago

rmk 5y ago

Yes, I think this will galvanize fence-sitters into accelerating the process of joining NATO, which is counterproductive for Russia.