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You're overestimating the speed of the attack. Even if the Ukrainians put up no resistance (and they have been putting up resistance) - tanks just don't move th
by gpm 5y ago
You're overestimating the speed of the attack. Even if the Ukrainians put up no resistance (and they have been putting up resistance) - tanks just don't move that fast/ukraine is a big place.
See the dotted lines in this map - that's a rough estimate of how far the Russians have made it in a day. Even if they continue at the same pace overnight (unlikely), and the next day, and the next night, there's still a lot of the country they won't have physically reached yet.
https://twitter.com/OSINTNS/status/1496880680143568901/photo/1 https://twitter.com/OSINTNS/status/1496880680143568901/photo...
- dekhn 5y agoSince they're already shelling Kyiv, they obviously have more options than tanks to take ownership of the governmental apparatus. I can't see how Ukraine can put up any realistic defence given they now have no radar tracking or air support. If your point is "it takes tanks a few days to get to Kyiv", then, yes, that is technically correct. If your point is "Russia needs to invade the whole country", no. They own the country when they control the governmental apparatus in Kyiv.
- gpm 5y agoI think you underestimate how easy it will be to take control of the government and country. Ukraine knew that they would be able to take Kyiv quickly. Intelligence sources have been saying that for weeks. They (Ukraine and it's friends) have been preparing for this - openly talking about partisan style resistance. I'm willing to bet that they need to seize pretty close to the entire country to maintain any sort of control.
- gumby 5y agoI suspect Russia will just keep slicing the sausage. Then take the western provinces and re install a puppet regime as was there before (like Belarus). If that turns out to be inadequate down the road, just take another slice or two down the road. The USSR went partially this way in Finland: sliced off half the country, though they left the other half alone, on sufferance. I don’t think Putin would be satisfied with that: he’ll want another Yanukovych or Lukashenko.
- sveme 5y agoThe US did not control either Iraq nor Afghanistan when they took Baghdad or Kabul, respectively. That‘s not how a much weaker force fights nowadays against the more powerful opponent.
- dekhn 5y agoI believe russia has already fully integrated the idea that this will shift to a guerilla war once they have complete ownership of all the country. Nor is Ukraine (or Russia's way of maintaining control over a country once they occupy it) is really analogous to either of those countries.
- dekhn 5y agoUpdate: I was totally wrong!
- dekhn 5y ago"By sunset, Russian special forces and airborne troops had seized the Chernobyl site and were pushing into the outskirts of Kyiv." (that's an update from NY Times. We can imagine that special forces will proceed to the government house and presidential office building through tonight and have ownership by tomorrow)
- dekhn 5y agoTroops entered kyiv, some 19 hours after you made your statement.
- gpm 5y agoMy statement was not about how long it will take them to take Kyiv, but rather Ukraine. I had actually thought they would reach Kyiv before now. I still believe my claim. Unless Russia miraculously takes the rest of the country in a few hours it will come true.
- gpm 5y agoShould be ~35 hours after my claim now, the "overnight, next day, and next night" mentioned has now passed. It appears that heavy tanks have yet to even reach kyiv. Lighter vehicles and paratroopers have, but failed to seize the city overnight. The vast majority of Ukraine remains unoccupied, the takeover attempt is far from over like you claimed it would be.
- dekhn 5y agoI was wrong.