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I think they'll be watching what happens in Ukraine very carefully. Then they'll be calibrating their predictions about what would happen if they invaded Taiwan

I think they'll be watching what happens in Ukraine very carefully. Then they'll be calibrating their predictions about what would happen if they invaded Taiwan with Russia's experience in Ukraine.

chongli 5y ago
I doubt the TSMC fabs would survive a PLA invasion of Taiwan. If nothing else, the CIA would probably blow them up during the attack.
- tomatotomato37 5y ago
  Any Taiwan invasion would be spearheaded by surgical strikes against those fabs via some type of special forces. Whether those forces would be able to successfully secure the fabs before they get blown or not is anyone's guess, but China isn't stupid enough to think this is something they can just throw their standard troops at.
- bpodgursky 5y ago
  That's why China is trying to build out domestic chipmaking tech. They're fine burning the rest of the world's supply chain down as long as it leaves them a monopoly.
- CountSessine 5y ago
  I doubt they care about TSMC. The CCP understands (or at least was predicting back with Jiang and Hu) that eventually China will democratize. Taiwan is a democracy right now. Democratic countries almost never re-unite into a single country. I can only name one instance of this happening in the last 70 years, and in some ways East Germany wasn't really a democracy yet. The CCP knows that Taiwanese reunification will never really happen peacefully. Leaders will talk about it, they'll negotiate a bit, but then it won't happen because the status-quo is always more attractive. They know that their only chance at national reunification is now or in the next 10 years or so. It's now or never. It has to happen by force or it will never happen. If China swallows Taiwan and then democratizes, that can be managed - a restive province can be placated and bought-off. But if China democratizes before reunification, then Taiwan is separate forever.
  - deltaonefour 5y ago
    The CCP won't democratize. It was heading in that direction under Hu, now under Xi Jinping things are consolidating back towards a centralist power. I do agree that to China, Taiwan isn't about TSMC. TSMC is the reason why the US cares about Taiwan but not the reason why China cares about it. If it was the main reasoning why doesn't China go after the Dutch? The dutch have ASML, which manufactures the more critical components involved with EUV lithography. But China never made a single move against ASML. There is deep history between Taiwan and China, and it is this history that is the main reason why China eyes Taiwan. Think of it like if California rebelled and became a separate country from the US 50 years ago. How would the rest of the US think about California?
    - CountSessine 5y ago
      The CCP won't democratize. It was heading in that direction under Hu, now under Xi Jinping things are consolidating back towards a centralist power. I agree completely. But if you're in the CCP, and a Chinese patriot, you understand that that makes peaceful Taiwanese reunification even less likely. Also, as long as Taiwan is defacto-independent, there's a terrible risk that they will declare themselves officially-independent. That would be a humiliating loss of face for the CCP and at the very least would probably precipitate a power struggle within the party. There is deep history between Taiwan and China, and it is this history that is the main reason why China eyes Taiwan. Think of it like if California rebelled and became a separate country from the US 50 years ago. How would the rest of the US think about California? Again, I completely agree.
    - betwixthewires 5y ago
      "Good riddance." Jokes aside, if that were to happen, the rest of the US wouldn't think "they belong with us whether they like it or not." It would take a significant government propaganda campaign to get Americans to be okay with forcibly reuniting a state like that.
- oneoff786 5y ago
  If I were Taiwan, I’d be stationing troops at the facility as a dead man’s switch to destroy it if invaded.
  - deltaonefour 5y ago
    No, that's what'd you'd do if you were the US because China is your rival. This is what you want from a foreign perspective. If I was Taiwan, or in other words a shareholder or OWNER of TSMC, I wouldn't want something I own being destroyed. I would rather fold into the new regime and keep my original ownership.
    - oneoff786 5y ago
      If China has to eat the cost of the TSMC being destroyed, it’s probably less likely to invade. China in a large part depends on TSMC whether it “owns” Taiwan or not.
      - deltaonefour 5y ago
        Yeah good point. I didn't realize what you meant. I thought you meant Taiwan should take a scorched earth policy, but you're really saying that Taiwan should advertise this policy as a defensive measure. Whether they carry it out is a different matter. Makes sense.
- segfaultbuserr 5y ago
  It's worth pointing out that even physical destruction may be unnecessary. Due to the complexity of the semiconductor supply chain, many say that an embargo of materials and the removal of experts are enough to paralyze the fabs for many years to come...

I think they'll be watching what happens in Ukraine very carefully. Then they'll be calibrating their predictions about what would happen if they invaded Taiwan with Russia's experience in Ukraine.

chongli 5y ago

I doubt the TSMC fabs would survive a PLA invasion of Taiwan. If nothing else, the CIA would probably blow them up during the attack.

tomatotomato37 5y ago
Any Taiwan invasion would be spearheaded by surgical strikes against those fabs via some type of special forces. Whether those forces would be able to successfully secure the fabs before they get blown or not is anyone's guess, but China isn't stupid enough to think this is something they can just throw their standard troops at.
bpodgursky 5y ago
That's why China is trying to build out domestic chipmaking tech. They're fine burning the rest of the world's supply chain down as long as it leaves them a monopoly.
CountSessine 5y ago
I doubt they care about TSMC. The CCP understands (or at least was predicting back with Jiang and Hu) that eventually China will democratize. Taiwan is a democracy right now. Democratic countries almost never re-unite into a single country. I can only name one instance of this happening in the last 70 years, and in some ways East Germany wasn't really a democracy yet. The CCP knows that Taiwanese reunification will never really happen peacefully. Leaders will talk about it, they'll negotiate a bit, but then it won't happen because the status-quo is always more attractive. They know that their only chance at national reunification is now or in the next 10 years or so. It's now or never. It has to happen by force or it will never happen. If China swallows Taiwan and then democratizes, that can be managed - a restive province can be placated and bought-off. But if China democratizes before reunification, then Taiwan is separate forever.
- deltaonefour 5y ago
  The CCP won't democratize. It was heading in that direction under Hu, now under Xi Jinping things are consolidating back towards a centralist power. I do agree that to China, Taiwan isn't about TSMC. TSMC is the reason why the US cares about Taiwan but not the reason why China cares about it. If it was the main reasoning why doesn't China go after the Dutch? The dutch have ASML, which manufactures the more critical components involved with EUV lithography. But China never made a single move against ASML. There is deep history between Taiwan and China, and it is this history that is the main reason why China eyes Taiwan. Think of it like if California rebelled and became a separate country from the US 50 years ago. How would the rest of the US think about California?
  - CountSessine 5y ago
    The CCP won't democratize. It was heading in that direction under Hu, now under Xi Jinping things are consolidating back towards a centralist power. I agree completely. But if you're in the CCP, and a Chinese patriot, you understand that that makes peaceful Taiwanese reunification even less likely. Also, as long as Taiwan is defacto-independent, there's a terrible risk that they will declare themselves officially-independent. That would be a humiliating loss of face for the CCP and at the very least would probably precipitate a power struggle within the party. There is deep history between Taiwan and China, and it is this history that is the main reason why China eyes Taiwan. Think of it like if California rebelled and became a separate country from the US 50 years ago. How would the rest of the US think about California? Again, I completely agree.
  - betwixthewires 5y ago
    "Good riddance." Jokes aside, if that were to happen, the rest of the US wouldn't think "they belong with us whether they like it or not." It would take a significant government propaganda campaign to get Americans to be okay with forcibly reuniting a state like that.
oneoff786 5y ago
If I were Taiwan, I’d be stationing troops at the facility as a dead man’s switch to destroy it if invaded.
- deltaonefour 5y ago
  No, that's what'd you'd do if you were the US because China is your rival. This is what you want from a foreign perspective. If I was Taiwan, or in other words a shareholder or OWNER of TSMC, I wouldn't want something I own being destroyed. I would rather fold into the new regime and keep my original ownership.
  - oneoff786 5y ago
    If China has to eat the cost of the TSMC being destroyed, it’s probably less likely to invade. China in a large part depends on TSMC whether it “owns” Taiwan or not.
    - deltaonefour 5y ago
      Yeah good point. I didn't realize what you meant. I thought you meant Taiwan should take a scorched earth policy, but you're really saying that Taiwan should advertise this policy as a defensive measure. Whether they carry it out is a different matter. Makes sense.
segfaultbuserr 5y ago
It's worth pointing out that even physical destruction may be unnecessary. Due to the complexity of the semiconductor supply chain, many say that an embargo of materials and the removal of experts are enough to paralyze the fabs for many years to come...