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> Here I am, a Russian oligarch. I ordered the Ukrainian invasion because I bet that NATO wouldn't intervene because of my nukes I think the mistake here is to

> Here I am, a Russian oligarch. I ordered the Ukrainian invasion because I bet that NATO wouldn't intervene because of my nukes I think the mistake here is to assume that the invasion is dictated by economic interests (be they oligarch interests). I don't think what's happening is driven by oligarchs, but by other geopolitical ideas (insane as they are). As far as I can see it there's no bet. Russia pretty much knows the US will not react, and the US has no interest to start WW3 over Ukraine.

gls2ro 5y ago
I dont understand how someone in the western world could read history and still believe that doing exactly what they did at the start of WW2 will bring a different result.
- leto_ii 5y ago
  I just don't think that Putin in 2022 is Hitler in 1939. Russia is a waning power clinging to significance, not an ascending one.
  - mythrwy 5y ago
    That might not necessarily be the case. Look at where they sit strategically. The amount of resources they supply to an increasingly resource hungry world. The amount of math and science talent. The possession of advanced nuclear weaponry. Look at what they are doing militarily right now and how effectively they are doing it. They are an extremely significant country. This is true no matter how you feel about their government.
    - ThalesX 5y ago
      The propaganda, both in the west and in the east have made this matter very hard to understand for the average citizen.
    - MockObject 5y ago
      Their economy is a little bit larger than the NY state economy.
      - mythrwy 5y ago
        Right. In terms of dollars. But what makes up the respective economies? Overpriced healthcare, insurance and banking services might not be as valuable as oil, minerals and manufacturing going forward. I just feel it's a huge conceptual mistake to underestimate the relative weights of forces.
    - modriano 5y ago
      Italy's GDP is $1.87T. Russia's GDP is $1.48T, down from around $2.3T in 2013. Russia's economy is dependent on fossil fuels. While the decrease in Europe's use of nuclear power has been a gift to Russia, the future for fossil fuels is not bright and Russia's kleptocratic government has starved the nation of economic innovation. I don't know what "extremely significant country" means here, but Russia is objectively a country in decline both in terms of economic and cultural power.
      - dwaltrip 5y ago
        In terms of real GDP (PPP), Russia is at $4.3T while Italy is at $2.6T. Russia has the 6th largest GDP by this metric. However, I'm not sure how to think about real GDP vs. nominal GDP when it comes to war. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)
    - leto_ii 5y ago
      > amount of resources they supply to an increasingly resource hungry world But that's the only thing they supply. At least in Europe (I hope) they'll start decoupling from Russian fossil resources asap. > The amount of math and science talent Pales in comparison to the US, China or the EU (taken as a block) and possibly even in comparison to the UK or Japan. > The possession of advanced nuclear weaponry This insures that MAD still works, but not much more I think.
      - treis 5y ago
        >But that's the only thing they supply. At least in Europe (I hope) they'll start decoupling from Russian fossil resources asap. Which is the last thing anyone should want because it will simply deepen ties between Russia and China.
    - beamatronic 5y ago
      I don't know why they can't just be happy with all those blessings
    - o4b 5y ago
      Hitler in 1939 had economic/industrial parity with at least one, if not two of his primary combatants (France and UK). He then had good reason to believe that other countries either would not engage (USA) or were highly overrated (USSR). He also had allies of significant weight. (1) Russia in 2022 has a GDP of $1.5T, and NATO has a combined GDP of $42T (2). Even if you make the case that Russia's current economic activity translates more effectively into wartime industry, I don't believe you can possibly make the case that it is 28x more effective. Germany also had military technology and strategy advantages (see France in 1940) over its (early war) opponents. As good as Russia's "math and science talent" is, I would be shocked if it was even a quarter of the capability that the US alone has. So no, Putin in 2022 is not comparable to Hitler in 1939. (1) - http://www.zuljan.info/articles/0302wwiigdp.html http://www.zuljan.info/articles/0302wwiigdp.html. (2) - https://countryeconomy.com/countries/groups/nato https://countryeconomy.com/countries/groups/nato
      - jacquesm 5y ago
        In 1939 there were no atomic weapons.
    - NicoJuicy 5y ago
      35% dependant on Europe for energy in GDP. China is taking Russian engineers and cheap resources. In the meantime, Putin complained that they didn't invest enough back. Total GDP ain't big either. Military is 6% of their gdp with a lot of older material too ( = maintenance cost) Very low vaccination rates, means very low trust in the governement. Russia is doing this because of a weak position. Not from a strong one. China is giving something to give Russia confidence, but really not much.
  - Sohcahtoa82 5y ago
    > Russia is a waning power clinging to significance, not an ascending one. I don't believe this, unless you define "significance" as nothing more than having your name in the world newspapers, even if it's for the wrong reasons.
  - tremon 5y ago
    Germany in 1939 was also a waning power, following the fall of the Weimar republic and subsequently World War I.
- publicola1990 5y ago
  Germany invaded Austria and Czechoslovakia just before WW2, and the allies didn't do much. Only when Germany invaded Poland did they declare war on Germany.
kzrdude 5y ago
The next question becomes, does US want to start a war over Estonia? Formally yes, of course, but I don't know.
- TheCoelacanth 5y ago
  I think yes. Estonia is part of NATO. Failing to defend them would lead to the collapse of NATO and the end of US hegemony.
  - treis 5y ago
    The problem is that it won't likely be a direct invasion. Estonia has a significant Russian minority and we've seen this play book before: Does NATO intervene when Russia starts (or really continues) courting pro-Russian politicians? Does it intervene if that minority starts protesting? Does it when that minority starts resisting? Does it when Russia smuggles them arms? Does it when little green men show up? Does it when the rebels (now mostly little green men) advance West? This go around the West tried sanctions and it obviously didn't work. Estonia is far more Western and fewer historic ties to Russia than Ukraine did. So it might not progress past step 1 in the playbook. Almost certain that Putin is going to try and likely will try for at least a couple decades to come.
    - CRConrad 5y ago
      > The problem is that it won't likely be a direct invasion. Estonia has a significant Russian minority and we've seen this play book before: For instance, we've seen it dramatised in season 3 of Berlin Station: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt5191110/episodes?season=3 https://www.imdb.com/title/tt5191110/episodes?season=3
- hutrdvnj 5y ago
  They absolutely will, I have zero doubt. Because otherwise NATO would be completely pointless and this would strengthen Putin even more, making him an even bigger treat for western countries.

gls2ro 5y ago

I dont understand how someone in the western world could read history and still believe that doing exactly what they did at the start of WW2 will bring a different result.

leto_ii 5y ago
I just don't think that Putin in 2022 is Hitler in 1939. Russia is a waning power clinging to significance, not an ascending one.
- mythrwy 5y ago
  That might not necessarily be the case. Look at where they sit strategically. The amount of resources they supply to an increasingly resource hungry world. The amount of math and science talent. The possession of advanced nuclear weaponry. Look at what they are doing militarily right now and how effectively they are doing it. They are an extremely significant country. This is true no matter how you feel about their government.
  - ThalesX 5y ago
    The propaganda, both in the west and in the east have made this matter very hard to understand for the average citizen.
  - MockObject 5y ago
    Their economy is a little bit larger than the NY state economy.
    - mythrwy 5y ago
      Right. In terms of dollars. But what makes up the respective economies? Overpriced healthcare, insurance and banking services might not be as valuable as oil, minerals and manufacturing going forward. I just feel it's a huge conceptual mistake to underestimate the relative weights of forces.
  - modriano 5y ago
    Italy's GDP is $1.87T. Russia's GDP is $1.48T, down from around $2.3T in 2013. Russia's economy is dependent on fossil fuels. While the decrease in Europe's use of nuclear power has been a gift to Russia, the future for fossil fuels is not bright and Russia's kleptocratic government has starved the nation of economic innovation. I don't know what "extremely significant country" means here, but Russia is objectively a country in decline both in terms of economic and cultural power.
    - dwaltrip 5y ago
      In terms of real GDP (PPP), Russia is at $4.3T while Italy is at $2.6T. Russia has the 6th largest GDP by this metric. However, I'm not sure how to think about real GDP vs. nominal GDP when it comes to war. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)
  - leto_ii 5y ago
    > amount of resources they supply to an increasingly resource hungry world But that's the only thing they supply. At least in Europe (I hope) they'll start decoupling from Russian fossil resources asap. > The amount of math and science talent Pales in comparison to the US, China or the EU (taken as a block) and possibly even in comparison to the UK or Japan. > The possession of advanced nuclear weaponry This insures that MAD still works, but not much more I think.
    - treis 5y ago
      >But that's the only thing they supply. At least in Europe (I hope) they'll start decoupling from Russian fossil resources asap. Which is the last thing anyone should want because it will simply deepen ties between Russia and China.
  - beamatronic 5y ago
    I don't know why they can't just be happy with all those blessings
  - o4b 5y ago
    Hitler in 1939 had economic/industrial parity with at least one, if not two of his primary combatants (France and UK). He then had good reason to believe that other countries either would not engage (USA) or were highly overrated (USSR). He also had allies of significant weight. (1) Russia in 2022 has a GDP of $1.5T, and NATO has a combined GDP of $42T (2). Even if you make the case that Russia's current economic activity translates more effectively into wartime industry, I don't believe you can possibly make the case that it is 28x more effective. Germany also had military technology and strategy advantages (see France in 1940) over its (early war) opponents. As good as Russia's "math and science talent" is, I would be shocked if it was even a quarter of the capability that the US alone has. So no, Putin in 2022 is not comparable to Hitler in 1939. (1) - http://www.zuljan.info/articles/0302wwiigdp.html http://www.zuljan.info/articles/0302wwiigdp.html. (2) - https://countryeconomy.com/countries/groups/nato https://countryeconomy.com/countries/groups/nato
    - jacquesm 5y ago
      In 1939 there were no atomic weapons.
  - NicoJuicy 5y ago
    35% dependant on Europe for energy in GDP. China is taking Russian engineers and cheap resources. In the meantime, Putin complained that they didn't invest enough back. Total GDP ain't big either. Military is 6% of their gdp with a lot of older material too ( = maintenance cost) Very low vaccination rates, means very low trust in the governement. Russia is doing this because of a weak position. Not from a strong one. China is giving something to give Russia confidence, but really not much.
- Sohcahtoa82 5y ago
  > Russia is a waning power clinging to significance, not an ascending one. I don't believe this, unless you define "significance" as nothing more than having your name in the world newspapers, even if it's for the wrong reasons.
- tremon 5y ago
  Germany in 1939 was also a waning power, following the fall of the Weimar republic and subsequently World War I.
publicola1990 5y ago
Germany invaded Austria and Czechoslovakia just before WW2, and the allies didn't do much. Only when Germany invaded Poland did they declare war on Germany.

kzrdude 5y ago

The next question becomes, does US want to start a war over Estonia? Formally yes, of course, but I don't know.

TheCoelacanth 5y ago
I think yes. Estonia is part of NATO. Failing to defend them would lead to the collapse of NATO and the end of US hegemony.
- treis 5y ago
  The problem is that it won't likely be a direct invasion. Estonia has a significant Russian minority and we've seen this play book before: Does NATO intervene when Russia starts (or really continues) courting pro-Russian politicians? Does it intervene if that minority starts protesting? Does it when that minority starts resisting? Does it when Russia smuggles them arms? Does it when little green men show up? Does it when the rebels (now mostly little green men) advance West? This go around the West tried sanctions and it obviously didn't work. Estonia is far more Western and fewer historic ties to Russia than Ukraine did. So it might not progress past step 1 in the playbook. Almost certain that Putin is going to try and likely will try for at least a couple decades to come.
  - CRConrad 5y ago
    > The problem is that it won't likely be a direct invasion. Estonia has a significant Russian minority and we've seen this play book before: For instance, we've seen it dramatised in season 3 of Berlin Station: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt5191110/episodes?season=3 https://www.imdb.com/title/tt5191110/episodes?season=3
hutrdvnj 5y ago
They absolutely will, I have zero doubt. Because otherwise NATO would be completely pointless and this would strengthen Putin even more, making him an even bigger treat for western countries.