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This is all assuming you share an underlying rational with the leader of Russia, which you don't. Putin obviously doesn't care about having a good economy or m

by enkid 5y ago

This is all assuming you share an underlying rational with the leader of Russia, which you don't. Putin obviously doesn't care about having a good economy or making life better for the average Russian. He cares about making himself look strong and maintaining power, and showing strength. In the long run Russia is going to hurt over this, but that's not what Putin cares about.

siliconescapee 5y ago
+1 to this comment -- as you state it's not possible to apply western success metrics to Russian politics or Putin. Of that Italian-sized economy, the spoils go to Putin's oligarchs and the average Russian is apathetic about political influence and fed government-owned TV news. Historically, they haven't been able to influence things and their needs matter little. It isn't a western democracy or economy -- it's more like an authoritarian regime where it's the needs of the political leadership that matter. They should have seized Putin's super-yacht before it fled Germany last week.
noduerme 5y ago
The flipside though is that Putin wouldn't be doing this unless he thought it would be popular and cement his legacy as a czar; and he wouldn't commit his Russians to it if he didn't think it would make Russia stronger and benefit Russia in the long term. His thinking is rational in this regard. Barbaric, but rational. And it will take more than sanctions to shake the foundation of this medieval belief.
- SpicyLemonZest 5y ago
  Is there a strong reason to believe that Putin thinks this way? As recently as two days ago, people in my circles were presenting this as an argument for why Putin wouldn’t invade, since it seemed so obvious that Russia would be stronger by claiming to occupy the moral high ground while protecting the separatist regions through deterrence.
  - noduerme 5y ago
    Here are my reasons. Putin's move here is like what you do when your character is about to die in CK3 so you just throw all your armies at a neighboring territory while you still have a claim you can press, even if your casus belli isn't accepted by the neighbors. The strongest reason for me to believe his thinking is rational in terms of the Russian interest is that there is very little that could make Russia worse after his rule, and there are many reasons to suspect he's facing his own mortality. So here he's making a high-price choice which will dent his bank account and possibly his short-term popularity. As the richest man in the world and the most popular man in Russia, he must be dying and trying to make one last push. Otherwise there's no reason for him not to rest on his laurels: His massive wealth and the total ownership of Russia he has already. The man should retire. But he wants to make himself Peter the Great or Ivan the Terrible; to put himself into the annals of the Orthodox Church, he must conquer the cradle of the Rus'. My theory on Putin is that he may be suffering from cancer. It would explain his terror of close contact with people, and this extreme move -- My fear about him is that he may want to take the rest of the world with him when he dies, including Russia.
    - achenet 5y ago
      someone should dose him with some acid, see if that won't make him chill out. I kinda feel bad for him, he must live a rather unhappy life.
      - noduerme 5y ago
        Hah. Did you ever read this? He seemed like he did some acid and had some fun.. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/9/10/1697580/-Back-in-1982-I-was-selling-acid-at-Jim-Morrison-s-grave-that-s-when-I-first-met-Vladimir-Putin https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/9/10/1697580/-Back-in-... I've met little "non-political" Russians like Putin playing guitar, working illegally at restaurants; accidentally overstayed a visa, have to go home to visit Moscow; you know because there's a soviet pin inside the jacket. Yuri Gagarin, or something. He's one of a type that exists and travels around Europe now. [Edit: I saw this article had never been posted on HN so I just put it up... but it's been immediately deleted, for reasons I don't know].

by enkid 5y ago

siliconescapee 5y ago

+1 to this comment -- as you state it's not possible to apply western success metrics to Russian politics or Putin. Of that Italian-sized economy, the spoils go to Putin's oligarchs and the average Russian is apathetic about political influence and fed government-owned TV news. Historically, they haven't been able to influence things and their needs matter little. It isn't a western democracy or economy -- it's more like an authoritarian regime where it's the needs of the political leadership that matter. They should have seized Putin's super-yacht before it fled Germany last week.

noduerme 5y ago

The flipside though is that Putin wouldn't be doing this unless he thought it would be popular and cement his legacy as a czar; and he wouldn't commit his Russians to it if he didn't think it would make Russia stronger and benefit Russia in the long term. His thinking is rational in this regard. Barbaric, but rational. And it will take more than sanctions to shake the foundation of this medieval belief.

SpicyLemonZest 5y ago
Is there a strong reason to believe that Putin thinks this way? As recently as two days ago, people in my circles were presenting this as an argument for why Putin wouldn’t invade, since it seemed so obvious that Russia would be stronger by claiming to occupy the moral high ground while protecting the separatist regions through deterrence.
- noduerme 5y ago
  Here are my reasons. Putin's move here is like what you do when your character is about to die in CK3 so you just throw all your armies at a neighboring territory while you still have a claim you can press, even if your casus belli isn't accepted by the neighbors. The strongest reason for me to believe his thinking is rational in terms of the Russian interest is that there is very little that could make Russia worse after his rule, and there are many reasons to suspect he's facing his own mortality. So here he's making a high-price choice which will dent his bank account and possibly his short-term popularity. As the richest man in the world and the most popular man in Russia, he must be dying and trying to make one last push. Otherwise there's no reason for him not to rest on his laurels: His massive wealth and the total ownership of Russia he has already. The man should retire. But he wants to make himself Peter the Great or Ivan the Terrible; to put himself into the annals of the Orthodox Church, he must conquer the cradle of the Rus'. My theory on Putin is that he may be suffering from cancer. It would explain his terror of close contact with people, and this extreme move -- My fear about him is that he may want to take the rest of the world with him when he dies, including Russia.
  - achenet 5y ago
    someone should dose him with some acid, see if that won't make him chill out. I kinda feel bad for him, he must live a rather unhappy life.
    - noduerme 5y ago
      Hah. Did you ever read this? He seemed like he did some acid and had some fun.. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/9/10/1697580/-Back-in-1982-I-was-selling-acid-at-Jim-Morrison-s-grave-that-s-when-I-first-met-Vladimir-Putin https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/9/10/1697580/-Back-in-... I've met little "non-political" Russians like Putin playing guitar, working illegally at restaurants; accidentally overstayed a visa, have to go home to visit Moscow; you know because there's a soviet pin inside the jacket. Yuri Gagarin, or something. He's one of a type that exists and travels around Europe now. [Edit: I saw this article had never been posted on HN so I just put it up... but it's been immediately deleted, for reasons I don't know].