4 ms·

On the main, "voice of the state", the 1st channel of Russian TV they have just discussed that the West would introduce more sanctions, yet half a year down the

by trhway 5y ago

On the main, "voice of the state", the 1st channel of Russian TV they have just discussed that the West would introduce more sanctions, yet half a year down the road the West would just get used to the situation.

rebuilder 5y ago
I wonder what that reflects. Sanctions would not be very popular among the Russian population, is this just the regime calming down the populace? Or does it genuinely reflect the calculus here?
- oleg_antonyan 5y ago
  All real opposition is imprisoned or killed. State controls all media and actively censor internet. You will get in trouble for organizing or even mentioning any kind of mass protest on social media. 60+ generation only watches TV and supports Putin, and for the rest he has massive amount on police and special forces if censorship and "regular" repressions didn't work. Many people leave the country b/c leading the revolution === getting killed regardless of outcome. Those who cannot leave are too weak, those who can but don't want to are trying to ignore all this shit and live their normal lives. The abundance of oil money helps Putin to keep most people barely above poverty level regardless of sanctions, and that's ok for many.
- trhway 5y ago
  Realistically Russia can't occupy any significant part of Ukraine, nor Kiev in particular - tens of millions of pissed-off resisting Ukrainians with many taking up arms (on Ukrainian TV they said that they already give arms to such civilians as former police, and Zelenskiy said that they would give arms to all "willing and capable to defend the country") would shake off any army, and any such occupation attempt would be very unpopular in Russia too. Such scenario would be fiasco and catastrophe for Russia and especially for Putin's regime and would make sanctions issue a noise. On the other side if Putin goes "only" for enlarged Donbass zone - like making Donetsk unreachable for Ukraine artillery, etc. - and limits the all-Ukrainian strikes only to military objects as it was officially declared then such conflict will soon again go back to slow-burn/frozen state, and that as usual would take international attention away from it.
  - raxxorrax 5y ago
    Ask Crimeans. Putin invested heavily in the region and he probably has many supporters now. Some separatists begged Putin to invade. Difficult to say how numerous they are. Maybe we see a new iron curtain in the middle of Ukraine.
  - yesplorer 5y ago
    Afghanistan under Taliban makes your claim invalid.
    - southerntofu 5y ago
      I don't understand this claim. USA army occupied Afghanistan, organized corruption (oh sorry "privatization of public services") for years and paid masses of informants and mercenaries and still had to stop occupying Afghanistan. Just like France was kicked from Algeria over 50 years ago after countless massacres. Not that i'm happy with the Taliban regime now that the USA are gone, but this wave of reaction is the logical aftermath of USA policy. Turns out not killing/oppressing millions of people and not destroying their public services could have a much better outcome in terms of "progressive politics".
  - tim333 5y ago
    They may be thinking of installing another Lukashenko type as president and then leaving.
    - southerntofu 5y ago
      It's not just Lukashenko though: Kadyrov is another example. It appears Putin has learnt from history of the Russian empire that it cannot survive with a single ruler doing ethnic cleansing from above (like the Empire did with the jews before 1917 or the USSR did with muslims). So yes Putin has wet dreams about reuniting all territories from the ex-Empire or ex-USSR, but as you pointed out he certainly needs "local men" (strong/macho/authoritarian type) to rule the local communities before an uprising occurs as is the logical conclusion of any colonial occupation.
  - 5y ago
smsm42 5y ago
That's how it's been since 2014. And that's why Putin feels so bold - he's already been down this road, and he knows it's not as scary as they try to make it look like. To scare him off, something bigger would be required - but looks like there's not much. Even SWIFT restrictions are a no go. The most the West can do is slap some personal sanctions on a couple of billionaire oligarchs (which can very well sit it out in Russia) and on some Russian banks (which probably also can stomach it for years).

by trhway 5y ago

rebuilder 5y ago

I wonder what that reflects. Sanctions would not be very popular among the Russian population, is this just the regime calming down the populace? Or does it genuinely reflect the calculus here?

oleg_antonyan 5y ago
All real opposition is imprisoned or killed. State controls all media and actively censor internet. You will get in trouble for organizing or even mentioning any kind of mass protest on social media. 60+ generation only watches TV and supports Putin, and for the rest he has massive amount on police and special forces if censorship and "regular" repressions didn't work. Many people leave the country b/c leading the revolution === getting killed regardless of outcome. Those who cannot leave are too weak, those who can but don't want to are trying to ignore all this shit and live their normal lives. The abundance of oil money helps Putin to keep most people barely above poverty level regardless of sanctions, and that's ok for many.
trhway 5y ago
Realistically Russia can't occupy any significant part of Ukraine, nor Kiev in particular - tens of millions of pissed-off resisting Ukrainians with many taking up arms (on Ukrainian TV they said that they already give arms to such civilians as former police, and Zelenskiy said that they would give arms to all "willing and capable to defend the country") would shake off any army, and any such occupation attempt would be very unpopular in Russia too. Such scenario would be fiasco and catastrophe for Russia and especially for Putin's regime and would make sanctions issue a noise. On the other side if Putin goes "only" for enlarged Donbass zone - like making Donetsk unreachable for Ukraine artillery, etc. - and limits the all-Ukrainian strikes only to military objects as it was officially declared then such conflict will soon again go back to slow-burn/frozen state, and that as usual would take international attention away from it.
- raxxorrax 5y ago
  Ask Crimeans. Putin invested heavily in the region and he probably has many supporters now. Some separatists begged Putin to invade. Difficult to say how numerous they are. Maybe we see a new iron curtain in the middle of Ukraine.
- yesplorer 5y ago
  Afghanistan under Taliban makes your claim invalid.
  - southerntofu 5y ago
    I don't understand this claim. USA army occupied Afghanistan, organized corruption (oh sorry "privatization of public services") for years and paid masses of informants and mercenaries and still had to stop occupying Afghanistan. Just like France was kicked from Algeria over 50 years ago after countless massacres. Not that i'm happy with the Taliban regime now that the USA are gone, but this wave of reaction is the logical aftermath of USA policy. Turns out not killing/oppressing millions of people and not destroying their public services could have a much better outcome in terms of "progressive politics".
- tim333 5y ago
  They may be thinking of installing another Lukashenko type as president and then leaving.
  - southerntofu 5y ago
    It's not just Lukashenko though: Kadyrov is another example. It appears Putin has learnt from history of the Russian empire that it cannot survive with a single ruler doing ethnic cleansing from above (like the Empire did with the jews before 1917 or the USSR did with muslims). So yes Putin has wet dreams about reuniting all territories from the ex-Empire or ex-USSR, but as you pointed out he certainly needs "local men" (strong/macho/authoritarian type) to rule the local communities before an uprising occurs as is the logical conclusion of any colonial occupation.
- 5y ago

smsm42 5y ago

That's how it's been since 2014. And that's why Putin feels so bold - he's already been down this road, and he knows it's not as scary as they try to make it look like. To scare him off, something bigger would be required - but looks like there's not much. Even SWIFT restrictions are a no go. The most the West can do is slap some personal sanctions on a couple of billionaire oligarchs (which can very well sit it out in Russia) and on some Russian banks (which probably also can stomach it for years).