5 ms·

The problem is not condemning, the problem is just condemning and not taking the next step, or making it so weak it actually emboldens tbe agressor, who thinks

by smsm42 5y ago

The problem is not condemning, the problem is just condemning and not taking the next step, or making it so weak it actually emboldens tbe agressor, who thinks "oh, that's all they got? Wasn't too bad, I guess I'll just keep on"

trhway 5y ago
On the main, "voice of the state", the 1st channel of Russian TV they have just discussed that the West would introduce more sanctions, yet half a year down the road the West would just get used to the situation.
- rebuilder 5y ago
  I wonder what that reflects. Sanctions would not be very popular among the Russian population, is this just the regime calming down the populace? Or does it genuinely reflect the calculus here?
  - oleg_antonyan 5y ago
    All real opposition is imprisoned or killed. State controls all media and actively censor internet. You will get in trouble for organizing or even mentioning any kind of mass protest on social media. 60+ generation only watches TV and supports Putin, and for the rest he has massive amount on police and special forces if censorship and "regular" repressions didn't work. Many people leave the country b/c leading the revolution === getting killed regardless of outcome. Those who cannot leave are too weak, those who can but don't want to are trying to ignore all this shit and live their normal lives. The abundance of oil money helps Putin to keep most people barely above poverty level regardless of sanctions, and that's ok for many.
  - trhway 5y ago
    Realistically Russia can't occupy any significant part of Ukraine, nor Kiev in particular - tens of millions of pissed-off resisting Ukrainians with many taking up arms (on Ukrainian TV they said that they already give arms to such civilians as former police, and Zelenskiy said that they would give arms to all "willing and capable to defend the country") would shake off any army, and any such occupation attempt would be very unpopular in Russia too. Such scenario would be fiasco and catastrophe for Russia and especially for Putin's regime and would make sanctions issue a noise. On the other side if Putin goes "only" for enlarged Donbass zone - like making Donetsk unreachable for Ukraine artillery, etc. - and limits the all-Ukrainian strikes only to military objects as it was officially declared then such conflict will soon again go back to slow-burn/frozen state, and that as usual would take international attention away from it.
    - raxxorrax 5y ago
      Ask Crimeans. Putin invested heavily in the region and he probably has many supporters now. Some separatists begged Putin to invade. Difficult to say how numerous they are. Maybe we see a new iron curtain in the middle of Ukraine.
    - yesplorer 5y ago
      Afghanistan under Taliban makes your claim invalid.
      - southerntofu 5y ago
        I don't understand this claim. USA army occupied Afghanistan, organized corruption (oh sorry "privatization of public services") for years and paid masses of informants and mercenaries and still had to stop occupying Afghanistan. Just like France was kicked from Algeria over 50 years ago after countless massacres. Not that i'm happy with the Taliban regime now that the USA are gone, but this wave of reaction is the logical aftermath of USA policy. Turns out not killing/oppressing millions of people and not destroying their public services could have a much better outcome in terms of "progressive politics".
    - tim333 5y ago
      They may be thinking of installing another Lukashenko type as president and then leaving.
      - southerntofu 5y ago
        It's not just Lukashenko though: Kadyrov is another example. It appears Putin has learnt from history of the Russian empire that it cannot survive with a single ruler doing ethnic cleansing from above (like the Empire did with the jews before 1917 or the USSR did with muslims). So yes Putin has wet dreams about reuniting all territories from the ex-Empire or ex-USSR, but as you pointed out he certainly needs "local men" (strong/macho/authoritarian type) to rule the local communities before an uprising occurs as is the logical conclusion of any colonial occupation.
    - 5y ago
- smsm42 5y ago
  That's how it's been since 2014. And that's why Putin feels so bold - he's already been down this road, and he knows it's not as scary as they try to make it look like. To scare him off, something bigger would be required - but looks like there's not much. Even SWIFT restrictions are a no go. The most the West can do is slap some personal sanctions on a couple of billionaire oligarchs (which can very well sit it out in Russia) and on some Russian banks (which probably also can stomach it for years).
praptak 5y ago
This is the biggest problem. I don't believe the sanctions imposed on Russia for the previous acts of aggression reached the level which Putin had already calculated into his plans.
- MattGaiser 5y ago
  I was really surprised at how lightweight the first wave of sanction was. They sanctioned some Russian politicians who were proud of it and the invaded areas only.
  - praptak 5y ago
    There is no going around it: any sanctions which don't even inconvenience the West don't hurt Putin and are already calculated into his plans.
    - MattGaiser 5y ago
      Depends. You could target Russian citizens with strong ties to Putin with asset seizures like Roman Abramovich. Seizing Chelsea F.C. and handing it over to fans would be quite popular.
      - gls2ro 5y ago
        What would this kind of sanction achieve? Do you expect that a friend of Putin will go to him and then ask him to stop a War? Right now in his own circle of friends, there is nobody more powerful than Putin and their money does not matter right now. The war will not be stopped because some friends will have their assets frozen or even lost. Global Power > Friends Money. To stop this war one has to show a bigger power. Some other type of sanctions needs to be considered.
        ozim 5y ago
        How do you think one gets power? By having rich friends and connections. Don't get fooled, they are only "friends" because they have common business and goals. Average Joe from the street is not going to be their "friend" because he would not bring anything to the table. Friends money is part of that power, taking that money away makes whole group weaker, because it is not "evil villain in a cave", world does not work that way. It is connections and groups of people.

by smsm42 5y ago

trhway 5y ago

On the main, "voice of the state", the 1st channel of Russian TV they have just discussed that the West would introduce more sanctions, yet half a year down the road the West would just get used to the situation.

rebuilder 5y ago
I wonder what that reflects. Sanctions would not be very popular among the Russian population, is this just the regime calming down the populace? Or does it genuinely reflect the calculus here?
- oleg_antonyan 5y ago
  All real opposition is imprisoned or killed. State controls all media and actively censor internet. You will get in trouble for organizing or even mentioning any kind of mass protest on social media. 60+ generation only watches TV and supports Putin, and for the rest he has massive amount on police and special forces if censorship and "regular" repressions didn't work. Many people leave the country b/c leading the revolution === getting killed regardless of outcome. Those who cannot leave are too weak, those who can but don't want to are trying to ignore all this shit and live their normal lives. The abundance of oil money helps Putin to keep most people barely above poverty level regardless of sanctions, and that's ok for many.
- trhway 5y ago
  Realistically Russia can't occupy any significant part of Ukraine, nor Kiev in particular - tens of millions of pissed-off resisting Ukrainians with many taking up arms (on Ukrainian TV they said that they already give arms to such civilians as former police, and Zelenskiy said that they would give arms to all "willing and capable to defend the country") would shake off any army, and any such occupation attempt would be very unpopular in Russia too. Such scenario would be fiasco and catastrophe for Russia and especially for Putin's regime and would make sanctions issue a noise. On the other side if Putin goes "only" for enlarged Donbass zone - like making Donetsk unreachable for Ukraine artillery, etc. - and limits the all-Ukrainian strikes only to military objects as it was officially declared then such conflict will soon again go back to slow-burn/frozen state, and that as usual would take international attention away from it.
  - raxxorrax 5y ago
    Ask Crimeans. Putin invested heavily in the region and he probably has many supporters now. Some separatists begged Putin to invade. Difficult to say how numerous they are. Maybe we see a new iron curtain in the middle of Ukraine.
  - yesplorer 5y ago
    Afghanistan under Taliban makes your claim invalid.
    - southerntofu 5y ago
      I don't understand this claim. USA army occupied Afghanistan, organized corruption (oh sorry "privatization of public services") for years and paid masses of informants and mercenaries and still had to stop occupying Afghanistan. Just like France was kicked from Algeria over 50 years ago after countless massacres. Not that i'm happy with the Taliban regime now that the USA are gone, but this wave of reaction is the logical aftermath of USA policy. Turns out not killing/oppressing millions of people and not destroying their public services could have a much better outcome in terms of "progressive politics".
  - tim333 5y ago
    They may be thinking of installing another Lukashenko type as president and then leaving.
    - southerntofu 5y ago
      It's not just Lukashenko though: Kadyrov is another example. It appears Putin has learnt from history of the Russian empire that it cannot survive with a single ruler doing ethnic cleansing from above (like the Empire did with the jews before 1917 or the USSR did with muslims). So yes Putin has wet dreams about reuniting all territories from the ex-Empire or ex-USSR, but as you pointed out he certainly needs "local men" (strong/macho/authoritarian type) to rule the local communities before an uprising occurs as is the logical conclusion of any colonial occupation.
  - 5y ago
smsm42 5y ago
That's how it's been since 2014. And that's why Putin feels so bold - he's already been down this road, and he knows it's not as scary as they try to make it look like. To scare him off, something bigger would be required - but looks like there's not much. Even SWIFT restrictions are a no go. The most the West can do is slap some personal sanctions on a couple of billionaire oligarchs (which can very well sit it out in Russia) and on some Russian banks (which probably also can stomach it for years).

praptak 5y ago

This is the biggest problem. I don't believe the sanctions imposed on Russia for the previous acts of aggression reached the level which Putin had already calculated into his plans.

MattGaiser 5y ago
I was really surprised at how lightweight the first wave of sanction was. They sanctioned some Russian politicians who were proud of it and the invaded areas only.
- praptak 5y ago
  There is no going around it: any sanctions which don't even inconvenience the West don't hurt Putin and are already calculated into his plans.
  - MattGaiser 5y ago
    Depends. You could target Russian citizens with strong ties to Putin with asset seizures like Roman Abramovich. Seizing Chelsea F.C. and handing it over to fans would be quite popular.
    - gls2ro 5y ago
      What would this kind of sanction achieve? Do you expect that a friend of Putin will go to him and then ask him to stop a War? Right now in his own circle of friends, there is nobody more powerful than Putin and their money does not matter right now. The war will not be stopped because some friends will have their assets frozen or even lost. Global Power > Friends Money. To stop this war one has to show a bigger power. Some other type of sanctions needs to be considered.
      - ozim 5y ago
        How do you think one gets power? By having rich friends and connections. Don't get fooled, they are only "friends" because they have common business and goals. Average Joe from the street is not going to be their "friend" because he would not bring anything to the table. Friends money is part of that power, taking that money away makes whole group weaker, because it is not "evil villain in a cave", world does not work that way. It is connections and groups of people.