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The thug also thinks his knife won't be needed. Often I wonder which of our leaders has ever played poker. It seems like Putin has figured out that we won't pu

The thug also thinks his knife won't be needed. Often I wonder which of our leaders has ever played poker. It seems like Putin has figured out that we won't push all-in, ever, so he steals another pot. If the west really cared about this, the only way now is to retaliate way out of proportion to what's happened. Before this happened, the west also didn't act like it wanted to contain the Russians, so the Russians got brave. If there had been some sort of response the Russians would have backed off. It's somewhat stable for both sides to bluster about this or that minor victory. Can't do that now.

chronofar 5y ago
> If there had been some sort of response the Russians would have backed off. Are you sure about that? Are you really willing to risk your chips betting on a retreat? This sort of geopolitical chicken would be incredibly dangerous.
- dbingham 5y ago
  What if he never retreats and just keeps pushing? You have a o draw a hard line somewhere, and the longer you wait the harder it is to do it.
  - xenocratus 5y ago
    I mean, Nato does have a real, physical border.... So if you have to draw a hard line somewhere, I guess it's already been done.
flyinglizard 5y ago
That was something great about Trump; he could not be easily predicted, not even by his own circle. Although in this case I’m not sure he wouldn’t have sided with Putin.
- lordnacho 5y ago
  I'll give him that, you don't know what DJT would have decided. Maybe he'd fold, maybe he'd go direct to nuke. That baseline unpredictability is actually useful strategically (there's even an essay about how being rational isn't necessarily a good game theoretic strategy, can't recall the name now). There's at least one other world leader who clings to power because of this trait. Recent mutterings suggest Trump thinks highly of Putin though, so it's hard to tell.
  - makomk 5y ago
    Thinking highly of opponents of the US and spouting off about how smart and savvy they are never seemed to stop Trump from treating them like opponents and using his power against them back when he was president, so I'm not convinced it would if he was still in charge - and it certainly wouldn't be safe for them to rely on that.
  - vecinu 5y ago
    > Maybe he'd fold, maybe he'd go direct to nuke. I don't think the president of the US has the authority to nuke anything by his own accord.
    - histriosum 5y ago
      You are, unfortunately, mistaken. The President has sole authority over launch decisions. There is a requirement that those orders be verified as authentic by the Secretary of Defense, but assuming POTUS gave the orders, it's not within SecDef's authority to countermand them. What would actually happen if an insane POTUS were to give a launch order that made no sense is probably up to chance and the quality of those willing to break the law and refuse the order. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_football https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_football
      - coffeeisyummy 5y ago
        Hey, wasn't this the EXACT argument Democrats made about removing Trump from office before the election? Floating the idea he'd risk WW3 instead of losing an election? Turns out Trump's general hard line on everything was useful for something.
propagandist 5y ago
Re: containing Russia. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/21/opinion/putin-ukraine-nato.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/21/opinion/putin-ukraine-nat... It's actually exactly the opposite and the guy who wrote the book on containment called it a tragedy. We don't need to rewrite history.
- lordnacho 5y ago
  I upvoted, this is a worthwhile point of view. But it's also the case that the west is straddling strategies here. Either do as Kennan says and just leave NATO the way it was and don't poke the wounded bear, or actually encircle Russia completely, stick nukes in their back yard and show them who is boss. Don't pretend to do both and neither, that is the worst of all worlds.
blindmute 5y ago
Please explain why you think the West (Americans) ought to go die for Ukraine. If you want the west to go all in for this, I hope you've signed up to serve already.

chronofar 5y ago

> If there had been some sort of response the Russians would have backed off. Are you sure about that? Are you really willing to risk your chips betting on a retreat? This sort of geopolitical chicken would be incredibly dangerous.

dbingham 5y ago
What if he never retreats and just keeps pushing? You have a o draw a hard line somewhere, and the longer you wait the harder it is to do it.
- xenocratus 5y ago
  I mean, Nato does have a real, physical border.... So if you have to draw a hard line somewhere, I guess it's already been done.

flyinglizard 5y ago

That was something great about Trump; he could not be easily predicted, not even by his own circle. Although in this case I’m not sure he wouldn’t have sided with Putin.

lordnacho 5y ago
I'll give him that, you don't know what DJT would have decided. Maybe he'd fold, maybe he'd go direct to nuke. That baseline unpredictability is actually useful strategically (there's even an essay about how being rational isn't necessarily a good game theoretic strategy, can't recall the name now). There's at least one other world leader who clings to power because of this trait. Recent mutterings suggest Trump thinks highly of Putin though, so it's hard to tell.
- makomk 5y ago
  Thinking highly of opponents of the US and spouting off about how smart and savvy they are never seemed to stop Trump from treating them like opponents and using his power against them back when he was president, so I'm not convinced it would if he was still in charge - and it certainly wouldn't be safe for them to rely on that.
- vecinu 5y ago
  > Maybe he'd fold, maybe he'd go direct to nuke. I don't think the president of the US has the authority to nuke anything by his own accord.
  - histriosum 5y ago
    You are, unfortunately, mistaken. The President has sole authority over launch decisions. There is a requirement that those orders be verified as authentic by the Secretary of Defense, but assuming POTUS gave the orders, it's not within SecDef's authority to countermand them. What would actually happen if an insane POTUS were to give a launch order that made no sense is probably up to chance and the quality of those willing to break the law and refuse the order. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_football https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_football
    - coffeeisyummy 5y ago
      Hey, wasn't this the EXACT argument Democrats made about removing Trump from office before the election? Floating the idea he'd risk WW3 instead of losing an election? Turns out Trump's general hard line on everything was useful for something.

propagandist 5y ago

Re: containing Russia. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/21/opinion/putin-ukraine-nato.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/21/opinion/putin-ukraine-nat... It's actually exactly the opposite and the guy who wrote the book on containment called it a tragedy. We don't need to rewrite history.

lordnacho 5y ago
I upvoted, this is a worthwhile point of view. But it's also the case that the west is straddling strategies here. Either do as Kennan says and just leave NATO the way it was and don't poke the wounded bear, or actually encircle Russia completely, stick nukes in their back yard and show them who is boss. Don't pretend to do both and neither, that is the worst of all worlds.

blindmute 5y ago

Please explain why you think the West (Americans) ought to go die for Ukraine. If you want the west to go all in for this, I hope you've signed up to serve already.