5 ms·

> Hasn't crime in the US trended downward for the last 50+ years? Mostly. There's been a sizeable blip up during the pandemic (it's unknown if that's the cause

by HWR_14 5y ago

> Hasn't crime in the US trended downward for the last 50+ years? Mostly. There's been a sizeable blip up during the pandemic (it's unknown if that's the cause) and that's led to talking heads talking about "the greatest rise in crime in 50 years", but that's talking about the percent increase year-over-year, and it's been trending down for a while. It's still below the rates it was at in the 1990s, which was lower than the rates in the 1970's and 1980's. The analogy would be if you owned MySpace stock (I know, it's not public) since 1999. Sure, maybe it shot up 20% this year, but who cares you're still out most of your money.

wavefunction 5y ago
I would only quibble with it being sizable. In my major city property crime dropped throughout the pandemic and violent crime was down during the beginning of the pandemic but returned to a level higher than pre-pandemic times, which is still quite a bit lower than historic records.
ochoseis 5y ago
Not to be pedantic, but crime peaked in the late 80’s / early 90’s and has steadily decreased since then (apart from recent spikes). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States
- mrlonglong 5y ago
  Is it concidence that lead in petrol (gas in the US) was phased out during the 80s that might explain the downward trends in crime?
  - franga2000 5y ago
    So many things happened "during the 80s", such a broad correlation is basically meaningless. I have heard some much tighter correlations have been found and some possible causal links, but I never looked into it so I might be misremembering.
    - HWR_14 5y ago
      It's not based just on "they happened in the 80s in the US". It's an international trend that you see most countries follow as they ban leaded gas.
treeman79 5y ago
Growing up in 90s many/most politicians ran on a get tough on crime platform. Crime rates naturally fell. Current trend last the few years is to be soft on crime. So now crime rates are rising. There is also increasing shift away from the mindset that one has the right to defend oneself. Both as a private citizen and as a police officer. If someone comes up and pulls a knife on you, and you pull a gun out. The results can be anywhere from being treated as hero to a villain. For sides of the confrontation.
- cm2012 5y ago
  Crime fell nationwide in the 90s after steadily growing since the 60s because of the elimination of leaded gasoline. The evidence is really strong.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - treeman79 5y ago
    Certainly crime rate has nothing to do with putting large numbers of violent people in jail.
    - atoav 5y ago
      Like the speed of a car has to do with how fast it goes. But isn't the more interesting question how and why the crime rate is the way it is? Anyone who is actually interested in changing the impact crime has on a society has to look long and hard at those questions. Of course many also just take the topic as a political vehicle to reach other goals, that have nothing to do with actually making things better.
  - gunfighthacksaw 5y ago
    Roe v Wade is also cited as a factor because all of those kids aborted in the 70s would have been the neglected kids of the 80s and crims of the 90s.
twoxproblematic 5y ago

by HWR_14 5y ago

wavefunction 5y ago

I would only quibble with it being sizable. In my major city property crime dropped throughout the pandemic and violent crime was down during the beginning of the pandemic but returned to a level higher than pre-pandemic times, which is still quite a bit lower than historic records.

ochoseis 5y ago

Not to be pedantic, but crime peaked in the late 80’s / early 90’s and has steadily decreased since then (apart from recent spikes). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States

mrlonglong 5y ago
Is it concidence that lead in petrol (gas in the US) was phased out during the 80s that might explain the downward trends in crime?
- franga2000 5y ago
  So many things happened "during the 80s", such a broad correlation is basically meaningless. I have heard some much tighter correlations have been found and some possible causal links, but I never looked into it so I might be misremembering.
  - HWR_14 5y ago
    It's not based just on "they happened in the 80s in the US". It's an international trend that you see most countries follow as they ban leaded gas.

treeman79 5y ago

Growing up in 90s many/most politicians ran on a get tough on crime platform. Crime rates naturally fell. Current trend last the few years is to be soft on crime. So now crime rates are rising. There is also increasing shift away from the mindset that one has the right to defend oneself. Both as a private citizen and as a police officer. If someone comes up and pulls a knife on you, and you pull a gun out. The results can be anywhere from being treated as hero to a villain. For sides of the confrontation.

cm2012 5y ago
Crime fell nationwide in the 90s after steadily growing since the 60s because of the elimination of leaded gasoline. The evidence is really strong.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- treeman79 5y ago
  Certainly crime rate has nothing to do with putting large numbers of violent people in jail.
  - atoav 5y ago
    Like the speed of a car has to do with how fast it goes. But isn't the more interesting question how and why the crime rate is the way it is? Anyone who is actually interested in changing the impact crime has on a society has to look long and hard at those questions. Of course many also just take the topic as a political vehicle to reach other goals, that have nothing to do with actually making things better.
- gunfighthacksaw 5y ago
  Roe v Wade is also cited as a factor because all of those kids aborted in the 70s would have been the neglected kids of the 80s and crims of the 90s.

twoxproblematic 5y ago