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I accept the accusation of pessimism. Even being very familiar with the same source as yours ! But looking at this: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electri

I accept the accusation of pessimism. Even being very familiar with the same source as yours ! But looking at this: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electricity-prod-source-stacked https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electricity-prod-source-s... I do not read it as "we replaced all of those on your left yesterday" ; but rather as "we have moslty kept those on your left, but some of the new ones we're building are a not as dirty, and anyway last year was weird." If you look at the whole "electricy mix vs energy mix", I read it as, yes, sorry, even more of a challenge. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-energy-substitution?country=~OWID_WRL https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-energy-substitutio... Now, "depressing" is not in anyway "desperate". Of course the grids are improving in rich countries, the mixes are improving in rich countries, the batteries are popping here and there that will make intermittency more manageable in rich countries, etc... And that's a challenge ! But I insist on "in the close future". There's more than 60% of our electricity, and more than 80% or our energy that we need to transition. I understand we have 10/20 years to do so, not 50. Then again, I'm bad at predictions. Maybe we're at the start of an exponential curve - I've spent the last two years missing them. Do you believe coal plants are going to close "viraly" in the next few years ? (Not only new hydro/wind/solar popping up) Do you see a wave of gasoline cars getting out of the road ? (Not only new EVs poping up ?) [Edit]: Regarding the whole "we've replaced those on your left..." https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/fossil-fuels/coal/power-generation-from-coal-soaring-in-2021/ https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/fossil-fuels/coal... A patient goes to the doctor. "You drink two bottles of scotch per week, that's too much !" A month later, the patient comes back. "I made progress doctor ! Now I drink half a glass of orange juice, and three bottles of scotch."

marcosdumay 5y ago
> "we have moslty kept those on your left, but some of the new ones we're building are a not as dirty, and anyway last year was weird." Where do you see that? Coal is falling about as quickly as the fastest rate it ever grew, natural gas is falling (I didn't expect that one 2 years ago). The only fossil fuel growing is oil, very slowly and from a low initial level. And the growth on renewables continues on an exponential curve. At some point the exponential must stop, but here we are, on the double digits of market share and still exponential. (Click on the "Relative Change" box if you can't see it on the main one.) Anyway, we have more than 10 years if we start strong and right away. The more we do right now, the more time we have to the hardest problems. And once we have electricity surplus (solar will almost certainly give us that), we can extend it indefinitely. > Do you believe coal plants are going to close "viraly" in the next few years ? They have been doing that for the last 3 years. > Do you see a wave of gasoline cars getting out of the road? That will take time. I see a wave of diesel trucks getting out of the road, but not cars. About your edit, yes, if you restrict your time frame and geographical area, your data gets noisier.
- phtrivier 5y ago
  You're right, I should have pointed out that the data about coal going up in 2021 after two years of going down was restricted to the US ; my bad. We'll have to wait for data about the global trend in 2021- I suspect we'll have a rebound effect after the pandemic. That still leaves plenty to replace "on your left"... Let's do that, shall we ?
  - marcosdumay 5y ago
    From the analysis there, it looks like the US suffered an intense drought last year and replaced the lost hydropower with coal. That probably pushed the global total up, but it's not a given that it has increased overall. But anyway, yes, let's keep replacing them. The faster the better.

marcosdumay 5y ago

> "we have moslty kept those on your left, but some of the new ones we're building are a not as dirty, and anyway last year was weird." Where do you see that? Coal is falling about as quickly as the fastest rate it ever grew, natural gas is falling (I didn't expect that one 2 years ago). The only fossil fuel growing is oil, very slowly and from a low initial level. And the growth on renewables continues on an exponential curve. At some point the exponential must stop, but here we are, on the double digits of market share and still exponential. (Click on the "Relative Change" box if you can't see it on the main one.) Anyway, we have more than 10 years if we start strong and right away. The more we do right now, the more time we have to the hardest problems. And once we have electricity surplus (solar will almost certainly give us that), we can extend it indefinitely. > Do you believe coal plants are going to close "viraly" in the next few years ? They have been doing that for the last 3 years. > Do you see a wave of gasoline cars getting out of the road? That will take time. I see a wave of diesel trucks getting out of the road, but not cars. About your edit, yes, if you restrict your time frame and geographical area, your data gets noisier.

phtrivier 5y ago
You're right, I should have pointed out that the data about coal going up in 2021 after two years of going down was restricted to the US ; my bad. We'll have to wait for data about the global trend in 2021- I suspect we'll have a rebound effect after the pandemic. That still leaves plenty to replace "on your left"... Let's do that, shall we ?
- marcosdumay 5y ago
  From the analysis there, it looks like the US suffered an intense drought last year and replaced the lost hydropower with coal. That probably pushed the global total up, but it's not a given that it has increased overall. But anyway, yes, let's keep replacing them. The faster the better.