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The Chinese government wants it to happen and probably can make it happen, but it will not be easy. China would have to take the island by force and an amphibio

The Chinese government wants it to happen and probably can make it happen, but it will not be easy. China would have to take the island by force and an amphibious invasion is logistically difficult and almost certain to face heavy casualties on both sides. US and the west place a lot of strategic importance in Taiwan so they may come to the defense, but it is unlikely to be defendable for long. We are seemingly moving towards another Cold War: China and Russia vs US and NATO.

postingawayonhn 5y ago
The equipment they need to manufacture the latest chips is made by a Dutch company. The US has convinced the Dutch government to ban the export of that equipment to China. If China managed to gain control of TSMC they would loose access to that equipment.
- adventured 5y ago
  Plus the US can trivially exfiltrate all the IP related to TSMC before China properly takes the island. Insiders will happily turn it over for any number of reasons. The next step if China were to move on Taiwan, other than getting all the data and IP from TSMC's internal networks, would be to spin up a US division and assign that IP to that new corporation. And then the US should try to get as many of TSMC's employees to the US that they can. Operation Paperclip TSMC.
- cma 5y ago
  The US didn't just convince them to, the US was a big part of the development of technology with a government/industry consortium in the late 90s (EUV LLC) with DARPA being a big part. That partnership worked with ASML under terms that are now letting the US have a big say in export controls.
- unionpivo 5y ago
  Part of the equipment. Sure an important part. But lets not forget that there is a lot of knowledge in TSMC too. And China is trying to slowly buy their engineers. Intel and AMD (now Global Foundries) both had access to same Dutch company's product and they didn't or barley managed to keep up.
MrBuddyCasino 5y ago
Russia tried joining NATO multiple times and was rebuffed - this is entirely on the west. Obviously China is the new global rival to be concerned about, not Russia.
- DaftDank 5y ago
  It does not seem unusual that an organization (NATO) created solely to defend/protect against one particular country would not allow that country to join forces with them.
  - MrBuddyCasino 5y ago
    If the German successor state to the Third Reich could join the western alliance after WW2, why can't the successor state to the Soviet Union join? Russia as a white-majority christian country shares many values and culture with the others. The western alliance has not only rebuffed Russia, it has expanded eastwards against promises made and thus provoked the current situation in Ukraine. What would the US do if the soviets were to expand into Mexiko? Or... Cuba? We know how that went. If the mission of NATO was to secure peace, why would they reject Russia? It makes no sense from that perspective. The answer is that there are other reasons NATO exists and what it is being used for.
    - hajile 5y ago
      If Russia had reformed, they would likely have been accepted. Instead they’ve had a string of bad actors taking bad actions and just going back to a dictatorship doing all the same things as the USSR. Why allow them to join and give them all our strategic information just for them to use it against us?
    - 988747 5y ago
      > The western alliance has not only rebuffed Russia, it has expanded eastwards against promises made and thus provoked the current situation in Ukraine. Every country is free to join NATO if they want, Russia has no say in it. And the reason why most Russia neighbors want to is because Russia is a bully, and NATO can protect them from being bullied. > What would the US do if the soviets were to expand into Mexiko? Or... Cuba? We know how that went. Well, for one the US did not attack Cuba... Also, Soviet Union was aggressor side for the whole duration of Cold War, that move was just prelude to further aggression against the West. > If the mission of NATO was to secure peace, why would they reject Russia Because the best way to secure peace is to keep Russia at bay. > Russia as a white-majority christian country shares many values and culture with the others. LOL, no. Russia does not share western values, such as democracy, freedom of speech or other human rights. They do not belong in Europe, they belong in Asia.
jansen555 5y ago
Not gonna happen. Tibet will get lots of freedom fighters courtesy of Uncle Sam and Aunty Indira. Same will happen at Xinjiang with groomed mujahideen fresh from Middle East plus American weaponry courtesy of free gift left in Afghan. China now is riped for breakage as inscribe in 5000 years of belief. One of American strategy to reduce China dominance is to accelerate breakage to 7 pieces (Xinjiang, Tibet, HK, North China, South China, Inner Mongolia and Heilonjiang). Attack on Taiwan, will have all the CCP children in America under internment similar to American Japanese during WW2. Would any parents able to meekly ignore that? Kill the emperor and save your children is a persuasive slogan. An economic blockade on the sea front and devastating India recovery of the western Aksai with Heilongjiang getting eyed upon by Putin while Japanese reconsider Manchuria. Most Chinese soldiers now are product of 1 child policy with very weak will to fight. Furthermore a breakage of world biggest dam would enough to wipe off 1/4 of Chinese capability on political and economic front. And remember the last few years strange prophecies happening in China. One notable one is June snowing in Beijing. Pandemic occuring in China history also signaling a change of dynasty. All in all, it is extremely unfavorable for Chinese to do a Putin Ukraine invasion. Putin is incredibly bright. You can go watch some of Putin's speeches on Youtube. Current Chinese leader is widelynknown on China to be not that well educated (due to Cultural Revolution) and lack eloquence. In short, attempt to take back Taiwan by force will end the China that we know now. People will care more about GPUs and CPU than the lives and prides of Chinese people.
pmontra 5y ago
Those fabs are not ore mines. If you blew up a mine the ore is still there. If you blew up those fabs there is nothing left. If Taiwan doesn't already have plans to destroy them in case of an invasion I'm sure they are the target of some missiles from outside the country.

postingawayonhn 5y ago

The equipment they need to manufacture the latest chips is made by a Dutch company. The US has convinced the Dutch government to ban the export of that equipment to China. If China managed to gain control of TSMC they would loose access to that equipment.

adventured 5y ago
Plus the US can trivially exfiltrate all the IP related to TSMC before China properly takes the island. Insiders will happily turn it over for any number of reasons. The next step if China were to move on Taiwan, other than getting all the data and IP from TSMC's internal networks, would be to spin up a US division and assign that IP to that new corporation. And then the US should try to get as many of TSMC's employees to the US that they can. Operation Paperclip TSMC.
cma 5y ago
The US didn't just convince them to, the US was a big part of the development of technology with a government/industry consortium in the late 90s (EUV LLC) with DARPA being a big part. That partnership worked with ASML under terms that are now letting the US have a big say in export controls.
unionpivo 5y ago
Part of the equipment. Sure an important part. But lets not forget that there is a lot of knowledge in TSMC too. And China is trying to slowly buy their engineers. Intel and AMD (now Global Foundries) both had access to same Dutch company's product and they didn't or barley managed to keep up.

MrBuddyCasino 5y ago

Russia tried joining NATO multiple times and was rebuffed - this is entirely on the west. Obviously China is the new global rival to be concerned about, not Russia.

DaftDank 5y ago
It does not seem unusual that an organization (NATO) created solely to defend/protect against one particular country would not allow that country to join forces with them.
- MrBuddyCasino 5y ago
  If the German successor state to the Third Reich could join the western alliance after WW2, why can't the successor state to the Soviet Union join? Russia as a white-majority christian country shares many values and culture with the others. The western alliance has not only rebuffed Russia, it has expanded eastwards against promises made and thus provoked the current situation in Ukraine. What would the US do if the soviets were to expand into Mexiko? Or... Cuba? We know how that went. If the mission of NATO was to secure peace, why would they reject Russia? It makes no sense from that perspective. The answer is that there are other reasons NATO exists and what it is being used for.
  - hajile 5y ago
    If Russia had reformed, they would likely have been accepted. Instead they’ve had a string of bad actors taking bad actions and just going back to a dictatorship doing all the same things as the USSR. Why allow them to join and give them all our strategic information just for them to use it against us?
  - 988747 5y ago
    > The western alliance has not only rebuffed Russia, it has expanded eastwards against promises made and thus provoked the current situation in Ukraine. Every country is free to join NATO if they want, Russia has no say in it. And the reason why most Russia neighbors want to is because Russia is a bully, and NATO can protect them from being bullied. > What would the US do if the soviets were to expand into Mexiko? Or... Cuba? We know how that went. Well, for one the US did not attack Cuba... Also, Soviet Union was aggressor side for the whole duration of Cold War, that move was just prelude to further aggression against the West. > If the mission of NATO was to secure peace, why would they reject Russia Because the best way to secure peace is to keep Russia at bay. > Russia as a white-majority christian country shares many values and culture with the others. LOL, no. Russia does not share western values, such as democracy, freedom of speech or other human rights. They do not belong in Europe, they belong in Asia.

jansen555 5y ago

Not gonna happen. Tibet will get lots of freedom fighters courtesy of Uncle Sam and Aunty Indira. Same will happen at Xinjiang with groomed mujahideen fresh from Middle East plus American weaponry courtesy of free gift left in Afghan. China now is riped for breakage as inscribe in 5000 years of belief. One of American strategy to reduce China dominance is to accelerate breakage to 7 pieces (Xinjiang, Tibet, HK, North China, South China, Inner Mongolia and Heilonjiang). Attack on Taiwan, will have all the CCP children in America under internment similar to American Japanese during WW2. Would any parents able to meekly ignore that? Kill the emperor and save your children is a persuasive slogan. An economic blockade on the sea front and devastating India recovery of the western Aksai with Heilongjiang getting eyed upon by Putin while Japanese reconsider Manchuria. Most Chinese soldiers now are product of 1 child policy with very weak will to fight. Furthermore a breakage of world biggest dam would enough to wipe off 1/4 of Chinese capability on political and economic front. And remember the last few years strange prophecies happening in China. One notable one is June snowing in Beijing. Pandemic occuring in China history also signaling a change of dynasty. All in all, it is extremely unfavorable for Chinese to do a Putin Ukraine invasion. Putin is incredibly bright. You can go watch some of Putin's speeches on Youtube. Current Chinese leader is widelynknown on China to be not that well educated (due to Cultural Revolution) and lack eloquence. In short, attempt to take back Taiwan by force will end the China that we know now. People will care more about GPUs and CPU than the lives and prides of Chinese people.

pmontra 5y ago

Those fabs are not ore mines. If you blew up a mine the ore is still there. If you blew up those fabs there is nothing left. If Taiwan doesn't already have plans to destroy them in case of an invasion I'm sure they are the target of some missiles from outside the country.