9 ms·

China want Taiwan with or without TSMC. If China take over Taiwan the US will probably block ASML from doing business with TSMC.

by xuki 5y ago

drexlspivey 5y ago
The US cant block a european company from doing anything
- Hamuko 5y ago
  They can pretty effectively. Not directly of course, but they can make life harder for said European company if they don't follow their sanctions.
- Tr03P 5y ago
  They can, since ASML are using US technology. Especially after ASML brought out Cymer.
  - audunw 5y ago
    From what I read regarding the current block, USA couldn't force ASML under current US law, because ASML uses less than 25% US technology. But USA didn't have to force them. ASML's EUV tech started out as a US funded venture, so I don't think they want to start a fight with USA. And USA could obviously change its laws to block sales of technology even if less than 25% of the end product is from USA.
  - sylware 5y ago
    If I recall properly, and if I trust what I read/viewed from the internet ages ago, EUV optics is from Germany (zeiss), and the EUV light is from cymer. cymer almost lost their part because they had been unable to deliver enough EUV light power for too long (in the end, it seems they shine their massive CO2 laser on a tin droplet, 2 times instead of one and yield enough power). mask/wafer alignment equipment, dunno where they are from (nanometric piezo-electric motors, with probably laser interferometer). Then, at the time everything was run in extreme vaccum, but heard something about hydrogen gas.
- xuki 5y ago
  They're currently blocking it from doing business with China right now.
- audunw 5y ago
  You think ASML wants to run afoul with the US, even if they can't force ASML? The main reason ASML has EUV is because it was funded by the US government to develop it. Now the tech is mostly ASMLs own, but they still have close ties to the US. USA didn't have to force ASML to stop selling to China, they just had to ask them nicely.
  - StreamBright 5y ago
    The company (originally named ASM Lithography, current name ASML, which is an official name and not an abbreviation)[10] was founded in 1984 as a joint venture between the Dutch companies Advanced Semiconductor Materials International (ASMI) and Philips. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASML_Holding https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASML_Holding
  - ahartmetz 5y ago
    > The main reason ASML has EUV is because it was funded by the US government to develop it That seems like 20% true. The US had a brief EUV program ("EUV LLC") in the late 90s - it wasn't much compared to how much difficult, risky, and expensive development obviously still needed to be done afterwards. The EU also has basic semiconductor research, notably IMEC. I have also seen that claim in a YouTube video by "Asianometry" and I wonder what the original source of that apparent misinformation is.
    - djhcfhvf 5y ago
      Asianometry youtube channel is just a guy reading Wikipedia entries over a slideshow.
- a2800276 5y ago
  They can block Nordstream 2...
  - M2Ys4U 5y ago
    Germany did that
  - adventured 5y ago
    It's the Cold War and national security is at stake, you're not going far enough. Think back to what went on from 1950-1990 in Europe and Asia, except it'll be even worse. Blocking Nordstream 2 is the very bottom of the barrel compared to what's coming. After a brief slumber the Russian Empire has awoken again in Europe and it's annexing territory (again). The Dutch would be foolish to spar with the US over ASML at this juncture. Dealing with Russia in Europe and China in Asia will take a concerted front by the US, Europe and their allies.
    - baq 5y ago
      remember the Russian Empire has an economy the size of Italy. it does a lot of posturing and no doubt it can cause a worldwide mess if it stops exporting energy, but they're an empire in name only.
      - dragonwriter 5y ago
        > remember the Russian Empire has an economy the size of Italy. And a nuclear arsenal roughly the size of the second through fifth largest in the world, combined, and an inventory of main battle tanks roughly equal, quantitatively, to the second through fourth largest in the world, combined, etc. When a country has outsized relative military capacity vs. relative economic capacity, especially when compared to their immediate neighbors, there is a very strong historical pattern of use or threat of use of the military capacity as a lever to achieve economic and/or territorial aspirations. It can fail (while there can be a lag time, economic power is eventually transformable into military capacity), but it isn't unusual for it to succeed, or for the eventual failure to be at the end of a long and bloody conflict.
- mlindner 5y ago
  ASML was created with mostly US technology company investments and US patents. So yes, they can. (And did.)
- xadhominemx 5y ago
  The core ASML EUV technology is from their US subsidiary Cymer. All that IP is domiciled in the US. In addition, most of the critical semiconductor components throughout the scanner (FPGA, high performance analog, etc) come from American companies
- deepnotderp 5y ago
  They can and have. ASML is blocked from selling EUV machines to China.
dirtyid 5y ago
Depends on how critical TSMC will remain, there's also chance US will have to work with PRC to ensure production continuity. IMO preserving fabs as leverage is probably top priority for all parties concerned, no one gains from it's destruction. The scenario where US controls inputs, PRC controls fabs, TW controls production is still preferable to scenario where destroyed fabs grinds advanced industries around world (mostly in the west) to a crawl.

China want Taiwan with or without TSMC. If China take over Taiwan the US will probably block ASML from doing business with TSMC.

by xuki 5y ago

China want Taiwan with or without TSMC. If China take over Taiwan the US will probably block ASML from doing business with TSMC.

drexlspivey 5y ago

The US cant block a european company from doing anything

Hamuko 5y ago
They can pretty effectively. Not directly of course, but they can make life harder for said European company if they don't follow their sanctions.
Tr03P 5y ago
They can, since ASML are using US technology. Especially after ASML brought out Cymer.
- audunw 5y ago
  From what I read regarding the current block, USA couldn't force ASML under current US law, because ASML uses less than 25% US technology. But USA didn't have to force them. ASML's EUV tech started out as a US funded venture, so I don't think they want to start a fight with USA. And USA could obviously change its laws to block sales of technology even if less than 25% of the end product is from USA.
- sylware 5y ago
  If I recall properly, and if I trust what I read/viewed from the internet ages ago, EUV optics is from Germany (zeiss), and the EUV light is from cymer. cymer almost lost their part because they had been unable to deliver enough EUV light power for too long (in the end, it seems they shine their massive CO2 laser on a tin droplet, 2 times instead of one and yield enough power). mask/wafer alignment equipment, dunno where they are from (nanometric piezo-electric motors, with probably laser interferometer). Then, at the time everything was run in extreme vaccum, but heard something about hydrogen gas.
xuki 5y ago
They're currently blocking it from doing business with China right now.
audunw 5y ago
You think ASML wants to run afoul with the US, even if they can't force ASML? The main reason ASML has EUV is because it was funded by the US government to develop it. Now the tech is mostly ASMLs own, but they still have close ties to the US. USA didn't have to force ASML to stop selling to China, they just had to ask them nicely.
- StreamBright 5y ago
  The company (originally named ASM Lithography, current name ASML, which is an official name and not an abbreviation)[10] was founded in 1984 as a joint venture between the Dutch companies Advanced Semiconductor Materials International (ASMI) and Philips. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASML_Holding https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASML_Holding
- ahartmetz 5y ago
  > The main reason ASML has EUV is because it was funded by the US government to develop it That seems like 20% true. The US had a brief EUV program ("EUV LLC") in the late 90s - it wasn't much compared to how much difficult, risky, and expensive development obviously still needed to be done afterwards. The EU also has basic semiconductor research, notably IMEC. I have also seen that claim in a YouTube video by "Asianometry" and I wonder what the original source of that apparent misinformation is.
  - djhcfhvf 5y ago
    Asianometry youtube channel is just a guy reading Wikipedia entries over a slideshow.
a2800276 5y ago
They can block Nordstream 2...
- M2Ys4U 5y ago
  Germany did that
- adventured 5y ago
  It's the Cold War and national security is at stake, you're not going far enough. Think back to what went on from 1950-1990 in Europe and Asia, except it'll be even worse. Blocking Nordstream 2 is the very bottom of the barrel compared to what's coming. After a brief slumber the Russian Empire has awoken again in Europe and it's annexing territory (again). The Dutch would be foolish to spar with the US over ASML at this juncture. Dealing with Russia in Europe and China in Asia will take a concerted front by the US, Europe and their allies.
  - baq 5y ago
    remember the Russian Empire has an economy the size of Italy. it does a lot of posturing and no doubt it can cause a worldwide mess if it stops exporting energy, but they're an empire in name only.
    - dragonwriter 5y ago
      > remember the Russian Empire has an economy the size of Italy. And a nuclear arsenal roughly the size of the second through fifth largest in the world, combined, and an inventory of main battle tanks roughly equal, quantitatively, to the second through fourth largest in the world, combined, etc. When a country has outsized relative military capacity vs. relative economic capacity, especially when compared to their immediate neighbors, there is a very strong historical pattern of use or threat of use of the military capacity as a lever to achieve economic and/or territorial aspirations. It can fail (while there can be a lag time, economic power is eventually transformable into military capacity), but it isn't unusual for it to succeed, or for the eventual failure to be at the end of a long and bloody conflict.
mlindner 5y ago
ASML was created with mostly US technology company investments and US patents. So yes, they can. (And did.)
xadhominemx 5y ago
The core ASML EUV technology is from their US subsidiary Cymer. All that IP is domiciled in the US. In addition, most of the critical semiconductor components throughout the scanner (FPGA, high performance analog, etc) come from American companies
deepnotderp 5y ago
They can and have. ASML is blocked from selling EUV machines to China.

dirtyid 5y ago

Depends on how critical TSMC will remain, there's also chance US will have to work with PRC to ensure production continuity. IMO preserving fabs as leverage is probably top priority for all parties concerned, no one gains from it's destruction. The scenario where US controls inputs, PRC controls fabs, TW controls production is still preferable to scenario where destroyed fabs grinds advanced industries around world (mostly in the west) to a crawl.