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When I was in YC (same batch as Dropbox) this was a constant question. "What happens to Dropbox if Gdrive launches?" I don't actually remember what Drew and Ara

When I was in YC (same batch as Dropbox) this was a constant question. "What happens to Dropbox if Gdrive launches?" I don't actually remember what Drew and Arash thought, but a lot of people speculated on it. It was probably a real threat to them 4.5 years ago. I can't imagine it is now. Dropbox has a large, happy fanbase that's going to keep using it and keep spreading. They're going to keep growing. They've got a small bit of lock-in if you use them a lot too, the annoyance of having to upload a large amount of files to another service. They've got a product that's a joy to use, which is not something Google is known for building outside of their core competency of search. If I were Dropbox I'd simply view this as market validation (not that they need it at this point) more than anything else.

kaushalc 15y ago
After Gdrive is out, DropBox will find it difficult to grow. The thing about lockin might be true for existing DropBox users. But what If I am a new user and I am comparing Google and DropBox. Who do you think I will choose? Also once google adds support to gdrive into all their existing offerings it will be difficult to compete with that.
jpdoctor 15y ago
> If I were Dropbox I'd simply view this as market validation And if I were Dropbox, I'd worry like hell. Google isn't depending on making GDrive profitable from fees, so they can literally give it away.
- wildmXranat 15y ago
  Indeed. Competition on this market space is almost guaranteed to be a race to the bottom. Dropbox will have to respond by concentrating on features to set itself apart.
  - rgraham 15y ago
    They should concentrate on making users really happy. Features may or may not figure in there. It would be pretty tough to compete with an over 10,000 engineer company with incredible building blocks on features.
    - dorkitude 15y ago
      That headcount is part of the reason it's easier to compete with Google. The design of the Google organization rewards micro-optimizations (use data for every decision, or else your ass isn't covered) and risk-aversion (set low KPI's and game them to get the biggest bonus each quarter). By contrast, the design of the innovation space in general rewards peak-jumping, risk-taking, and a healthy blend of intuition and data. And it already selected Dropbox. Don't get me wrong, the (layers and layers of) leadership at Google want to make killer products. But at the level of the lowly implementer, not only is making killer products only a peripheral concern, but those who can and want to make killer products tend to self-select out of Google.
  - AJ007 15y ago
    I can think of one huge feature: not giving all your personal data to the same company.
- markokocic 15y ago
  That's how Microsoft won the browser wars few years ago.
  - jpdoctor 15y ago
    You lost me. MS put out a product for free that was competing with other products for free. Are you really saying that is the situation here?
    - richardw 15y ago
      Netscape initially charged for the browser. "Netscape Navigator was not free to the general public until January 1998" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netscape http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netscape
      - deleted 15y ago
        [deleted]
      - jpdoctor 15y ago
        Good example. MS successfully killed off Netscape (the company) within a few years by bundling an inferior browser. It also prevented them from entering desktop OS, which was perceived as a threat back in the day. Edit: FYI, Mosaic was the one I had in mind, which was free.
        arihant 15y ago
        In it's day, IE was not an inferior browser. Quiet the opposite, actually.
        cyberguppy 15y ago
        "In it is day, IE was not an inferior browser. [Making little or no noise] the opposite, actually." Putting aside the snarky remark about IE's apparent target audience, there are any number of contemporary sources which give examples of how your intended statement is factually incorrect. For example: http://www.justice.gov/atr/cases/f3800/v-e.pdf http://www.justice.gov/atr/cases/f3800/v-e.pdf
- patio11 15y ago
  You'd be surprised how difficult "giving it away" can be, even for Google. Google succeeded big on giving away email, search, and androids. Do I need to list up all the acquisitions and products that even with a mortal lock on navigation on the Internet Google couldn't convince people was worth at least $0?
  - webignition 15y ago
    That would actually be a very interesting list. Hard to complete exhaustively, but a few relevant examples would be great!
    - patio11 15y ago
      Google Video (rescued by throwing a few billion at the competitor who was running away with the space), Lively (its like IMVU except without the users), Dodgeball, Wave, Google Page Creator (its like Weebly except without the users), Orkut (debatable whether one can put it in the failure column for not being FB but it certainly isn't FB), etc, etc.
      - microcentury 15y ago
        But Google 'gives everything away' (with indirect monetisation), both the products that succeed and the products that fail. So in that sense this is just a list of failed products which are the byproduct of innovation at such a scale, rather than an indication of what has worked and what has not for Google in the past. Surely in this case, going up against a competitor that needs to charge, Google would be at a massive advantage (legality aside) by not having to charge?
  - jpdoctor 15y ago
    Dropbox can take the approach of not worrying if they want. Standing on years of head start perhaps. However: File sync strikes me as a lot closer to email than <insert failed acquisition here>. Additionally, it seems logical to build/ship GDrive right into android. I say again: I'd worry like hell.
- pchristensen 15y ago
  Google has given away lots of stuff without success. Worrying about a big competitor "crushing" you just because they announce a product is a sign of productitis. Symptoms include ignoring marketing, customer experience, and organizational focus.
- jcampbell1 15y ago
  Since it seems to be based on Google Documents, I think Dropbox will do just fine. There are few pages on the internet that I dislike more than the Google Documents start page. I actually feel annoyed every time I look at that auto generated shit list of files that is Google documents. It breaks every user interface convention for displaying a list of files. Navigating files is something I already know how to do, but Google is special and has figured out how to make it a chore.
joebadmo 15y ago
FWIW, one of the reasons I like having a non Google service to hold some important files is in case I hit the Google black swan and get locked out of my gmail account. (I also backup my email regularly.) While integration would probably be convenient, I need to be able to keep working if I do get locked out.
- jpdoctor 15y ago
  > is in case I hit the Google black swan and get locked out of my gmail account. Do you think fear of a Google black swan is enough of a selling point for dropbox to survive?
  - joebadmo 15y ago
    I wouldn't speculate on Dropbox surviving, but, no, it seems unlikely that this fear is big enough to be a factor.
  - Eliezer 15y ago
    Yes. That is the primary reason why I would pick Dropbox over Google.
- anothermachine 15y ago
  FYI if you just set up a POP client you don't need to run a backup process for your gmail.
- Tichy 15y ago
  Is the risk higher to be locked out of Google than to be locked out of Dropbox?
ry0ohki 15y ago
I'd worry more about Bitcasa, because they are taking the same "ease of use" idea, but making it even easier and cheaper. Google is not the best with marketing, I haven't heard of any friends using Google Deals instead of Groupon yet either.
- MatthewPhillips 15y ago
  I sign up for the beta and the first thing they do is try entice me to spam social network sites about their product (that I haven't tried) in exchange for a better place in line. Pass.
  - ry0ohki 15y ago
    It seems like half the startups are taking this Launchrock-type approach these days, I'm not sure I'm a fan either but presumably it works.
- ry0ohki 15y ago
  Really, I'm being downvoted into troll territory? Does it help if I say I'm a paying Dropbox user? The community is definitely changing here over the years...
  - abcd_f 15y ago
    I would guess that Bitcasa is just not notable enough to be brought into Google/Dropbox thread. Not that it justifies downvoting you below 0.
rokhayakebe 15y ago
Nice to see this guy back.
- mattmaroon 15y ago
  I pop in every few months. I made the mistake of hearing about the password recovery feature :)
  - rokhayakebe 15y ago
    You should do this a lot more often. I am sure lots of us enjoyed your writings/comments.
Seth_Kriticos 15y ago
Considering that DropBox is building on Amazon cloud storage (S3) and Google have their native storage arrays, I'd be very worried, as Google can offer storage much cheaper. If you check Google services (docs, mail), you get for just $5 -> 20GB of storage for a YEAR (or for $20 -> 80GB). DropBox takes $9.99 a MONTH for 50GB, or around $120 a YEAR! User lock-in is powerful, but if a competitor can offer a product for a magnitude less in price, I'd be friggin' worry my posterior off.
- jpdoctor 15y ago
  > Considering that DropBox is building on Amazon cloud storage (S3) ...which tells you the only logical acquirer. Any other will have a middleman of S3 to pay, which will make the financials not very sensible. If GDrive releases and is viable, Dropbox should put on their best push-up bra and fishnets, and head over to seattle as soon as the mascara is dry.
  - mmahemoff 15y ago
    Convenient as the other only logical acquirer is also in Seattle.
    - jpdoctor 15y ago
      Do you see MS putting Amazon in their critical path? I easily picture Ballmer saying NFW, but would love to hear why MS would hand such power over to Amazon.
      - mmahemoff 15y ago
        They're not exactly mortal enemies, other than when it comes to recruiting Seattle talent. Amazon's pricing is transparent and MS would probably plan to migrate it to their own data centers like they migrated Hotmail from Unix infrastructure, and probably lots of other products.
      - eggnet 15y ago
        If Microsoft acquires they would move Dropbox to their own infrastructure, clearly.
benologist 15y ago
Dropbox usage for me at least is 100% passive, it's literally just an icon in the top right that I don't click or think about. I don't know if that holds true for any significant number of Dropbox's users but pricing and additional functionality could easily make an equivalent service more attractive for my use case.
allenbrunson 15y ago
Hey, didn't you write a long blog post about quitting Hacker News? And changing your password to a random string of characters to avoid being lured back?
orblivion 15y ago
> They've got a small bit of lock-in if you use them a lot too, the annoyance of having to upload a large amount of files to another service. If it works the same way as Dropbox, you'd just have to move files on your local machine from one shared directory to the other. Hell I wish all services were as easy.
wnight 15y ago
> They've got a product that's a joy to use, which is not something Google is known for building outside of their core competency of search. Google is known for getting minimalism which is the most important UI element. > the annoyance of having to upload a large amount of files to another service. I imagine you'd just enter your Dropbox password into a migration form and have everything seamlessly pulled in. In fact, Google might even let you sync back, but Dropbox could add it easily it if not. By nature these services have to inter-operate.
zecg 15y ago
Dropbox's situation seems extremely precarious. Most users have less than 2 GB of data. That's not lock-in, that's a few minutes of moving. I have about 15.000 high-resolution tagged photos on flickr - that's lock-in. Simplicity and transparency (from where I'm standing) seem like the things that helped Dropbox proliferate - no fuss, just a directory that syncs, but it also means they have no way to monetize their service (they haven't made a dime from me yet) and they provide no added value. Now, consider my case. I don't even have to remove the Dropbox client. The folder is already mirrored on my computer, when I install the next version of Ubuntu I have to explicitly add the PPA and install the proprietary Nautilus extension. If I don't do that, I can just drag the folder to another service. At some point it's easier to quit than to continue using it, which is why I predict Dropbox is fucked once Google provides the same transparent syncing with added value of its services.

kaushalc 15y ago

After Gdrive is out, DropBox will find it difficult to grow. The thing about lockin might be true for existing DropBox users. But what If I am a new user and I am comparing Google and DropBox. Who do you think I will choose? Also once google adds support to gdrive into all their existing offerings it will be difficult to compete with that.

jpdoctor 15y ago

> If I were Dropbox I'd simply view this as market validation And if I were Dropbox, I'd worry like hell. Google isn't depending on making GDrive profitable from fees, so they can literally give it away.

wildmXranat 15y ago
Indeed. Competition on this market space is almost guaranteed to be a race to the bottom. Dropbox will have to respond by concentrating on features to set itself apart.
- rgraham 15y ago
  They should concentrate on making users really happy. Features may or may not figure in there. It would be pretty tough to compete with an over 10,000 engineer company with incredible building blocks on features.
  - dorkitude 15y ago
    That headcount is part of the reason it's easier to compete with Google. The design of the Google organization rewards micro-optimizations (use data for every decision, or else your ass isn't covered) and risk-aversion (set low KPI's and game them to get the biggest bonus each quarter). By contrast, the design of the innovation space in general rewards peak-jumping, risk-taking, and a healthy blend of intuition and data. And it already selected Dropbox. Don't get me wrong, the (layers and layers of) leadership at Google want to make killer products. But at the level of the lowly implementer, not only is making killer products only a peripheral concern, but those who can and want to make killer products tend to self-select out of Google.
- AJ007 15y ago
  I can think of one huge feature: not giving all your personal data to the same company.
markokocic 15y ago
That's how Microsoft won the browser wars few years ago.
- jpdoctor 15y ago
  You lost me. MS put out a product for free that was competing with other products for free. Are you really saying that is the situation here?
  - richardw 15y ago
    Netscape initially charged for the browser. "Netscape Navigator was not free to the general public until January 1998" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netscape http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netscape
    - deleted 15y ago
      [deleted]
    - jpdoctor 15y ago
      Good example. MS successfully killed off Netscape (the company) within a few years by bundling an inferior browser. It also prevented them from entering desktop OS, which was perceived as a threat back in the day. Edit: FYI, Mosaic was the one I had in mind, which was free.
      - arihant 15y ago
        In it's day, IE was not an inferior browser. Quiet the opposite, actually.
        cyberguppy 15y ago
        "In it is day, IE was not an inferior browser. [Making little or no noise] the opposite, actually." Putting aside the snarky remark about IE's apparent target audience, there are any number of contemporary sources which give examples of how your intended statement is factually incorrect. For example: http://www.justice.gov/atr/cases/f3800/v-e.pdf http://www.justice.gov/atr/cases/f3800/v-e.pdf
patio11 15y ago
You'd be surprised how difficult "giving it away" can be, even for Google. Google succeeded big on giving away email, search, and androids. Do I need to list up all the acquisitions and products that even with a mortal lock on navigation on the Internet Google couldn't convince people was worth at least $0?
- webignition 15y ago
  That would actually be a very interesting list. Hard to complete exhaustively, but a few relevant examples would be great!
  - patio11 15y ago
    Google Video (rescued by throwing a few billion at the competitor who was running away with the space), Lively (its like IMVU except without the users), Dodgeball, Wave, Google Page Creator (its like Weebly except without the users), Orkut (debatable whether one can put it in the failure column for not being FB but it certainly isn't FB), etc, etc.
    - microcentury 15y ago
      But Google 'gives everything away' (with indirect monetisation), both the products that succeed and the products that fail. So in that sense this is just a list of failed products which are the byproduct of innovation at such a scale, rather than an indication of what has worked and what has not for Google in the past. Surely in this case, going up against a competitor that needs to charge, Google would be at a massive advantage (legality aside) by not having to charge?
- jpdoctor 15y ago
  Dropbox can take the approach of not worrying if they want. Standing on years of head start perhaps. However: File sync strikes me as a lot closer to email than <insert failed acquisition here>. Additionally, it seems logical to build/ship GDrive right into android. I say again: I'd worry like hell.
pchristensen 15y ago
Google has given away lots of stuff without success. Worrying about a big competitor "crushing" you just because they announce a product is a sign of productitis. Symptoms include ignoring marketing, customer experience, and organizational focus.
jcampbell1 15y ago
Since it seems to be based on Google Documents, I think Dropbox will do just fine. There are few pages on the internet that I dislike more than the Google Documents start page. I actually feel annoyed every time I look at that auto generated shit list of files that is Google documents. It breaks every user interface convention for displaying a list of files. Navigating files is something I already know how to do, but Google is special and has figured out how to make it a chore.

joebadmo 15y ago

FWIW, one of the reasons I like having a non Google service to hold some important files is in case I hit the Google black swan and get locked out of my gmail account. (I also backup my email regularly.) While integration would probably be convenient, I need to be able to keep working if I do get locked out.

jpdoctor 15y ago
> is in case I hit the Google black swan and get locked out of my gmail account. Do you think fear of a Google black swan is enough of a selling point for dropbox to survive?
- joebadmo 15y ago
  I wouldn't speculate on Dropbox surviving, but, no, it seems unlikely that this fear is big enough to be a factor.
- Eliezer 15y ago
  Yes. That is the primary reason why I would pick Dropbox over Google.
anothermachine 15y ago
FYI if you just set up a POP client you don't need to run a backup process for your gmail.
Tichy 15y ago
Is the risk higher to be locked out of Google than to be locked out of Dropbox?

ry0ohki 15y ago

I'd worry more about Bitcasa, because they are taking the same "ease of use" idea, but making it even easier and cheaper. Google is not the best with marketing, I haven't heard of any friends using Google Deals instead of Groupon yet either.

MatthewPhillips 15y ago
I sign up for the beta and the first thing they do is try entice me to spam social network sites about their product (that I haven't tried) in exchange for a better place in line. Pass.
- ry0ohki 15y ago
  It seems like half the startups are taking this Launchrock-type approach these days, I'm not sure I'm a fan either but presumably it works.
ry0ohki 15y ago
Really, I'm being downvoted into troll territory? Does it help if I say I'm a paying Dropbox user? The community is definitely changing here over the years...
- abcd_f 15y ago
  I would guess that Bitcasa is just not notable enough to be brought into Google/Dropbox thread. Not that it justifies downvoting you below 0.

rokhayakebe 15y ago

Nice to see this guy back.

mattmaroon 15y ago
I pop in every few months. I made the mistake of hearing about the password recovery feature :)
- rokhayakebe 15y ago
  You should do this a lot more often. I am sure lots of us enjoyed your writings/comments.

Seth_Kriticos 15y ago

Considering that DropBox is building on Amazon cloud storage (S3) and Google have their native storage arrays, I'd be very worried, as Google can offer storage much cheaper. If you check Google services (docs, mail), you get for just $5 -> 20GB of storage for a YEAR (or for $20 -> 80GB). DropBox takes $9.99 a MONTH for 50GB, or around $120 a YEAR! User lock-in is powerful, but if a competitor can offer a product for a magnitude less in price, I'd be friggin' worry my posterior off.

jpdoctor 15y ago
> Considering that DropBox is building on Amazon cloud storage (S3) ...which tells you the only logical acquirer. Any other will have a middleman of S3 to pay, which will make the financials not very sensible. If GDrive releases and is viable, Dropbox should put on their best push-up bra and fishnets, and head over to seattle as soon as the mascara is dry.
- mmahemoff 15y ago
  Convenient as the other only logical acquirer is also in Seattle.
  - jpdoctor 15y ago
    Do you see MS putting Amazon in their critical path? I easily picture Ballmer saying NFW, but would love to hear why MS would hand such power over to Amazon.
    - mmahemoff 15y ago
      They're not exactly mortal enemies, other than when it comes to recruiting Seattle talent. Amazon's pricing is transparent and MS would probably plan to migrate it to their own data centers like they migrated Hotmail from Unix infrastructure, and probably lots of other products.
    - eggnet 15y ago
      If Microsoft acquires they would move Dropbox to their own infrastructure, clearly.

benologist 15y ago

Dropbox usage for me at least is 100% passive, it's literally just an icon in the top right that I don't click or think about. I don't know if that holds true for any significant number of Dropbox's users but pricing and additional functionality could easily make an equivalent service more attractive for my use case.

allenbrunson 15y ago

Hey, didn't you write a long blog post about quitting Hacker News? And changing your password to a random string of characters to avoid being lured back?

orblivion 15y ago

> They've got a small bit of lock-in if you use them a lot too, the annoyance of having to upload a large amount of files to another service. If it works the same way as Dropbox, you'd just have to move files on your local machine from one shared directory to the other. Hell I wish all services were as easy.

wnight 15y ago

> They've got a product that's a joy to use, which is not something Google is known for building outside of their core competency of search. Google is known for getting minimalism which is the most important UI element. > the annoyance of having to upload a large amount of files to another service. I imagine you'd just enter your Dropbox password into a migration form and have everything seamlessly pulled in. In fact, Google might even let you sync back, but Dropbox could add it easily it if not. By nature these services have to inter-operate.

zecg 15y ago

Dropbox's situation seems extremely precarious. Most users have less than 2 GB of data. That's not lock-in, that's a few minutes of moving. I have about 15.000 high-resolution tagged photos on flickr - that's lock-in. Simplicity and transparency (from where I'm standing) seem like the things that helped Dropbox proliferate - no fuss, just a directory that syncs, but it also means they have no way to monetize their service (they haven't made a dime from me yet) and they provide no added value. Now, consider my case. I don't even have to remove the Dropbox client. The folder is already mirrored on my computer, when I install the next version of Ubuntu I have to explicitly add the PPA and install the proprietary Nautilus extension. If I don't do that, I can just drag the folder to another service. At some point it's easier to quit than to continue using it, which is why I predict Dropbox is fucked once Google provides the same transparent syncing with added value of its services.