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This is a really bad reading of the situation and you won't have to wait very long to see why. Putin did not go through this massive hoopla just to get a small

This is a really bad reading of the situation and you won't have to wait very long to see why. Putin did not go through this massive hoopla just to get a small strip of land. Yesterday's moves were just the first step. Within a few days they'll escalate by doing something like claiming the entire regions, by staging a false flag, Triggering an insurrection outside the regions etc. Once they have threatred their way into making it look as if Ukraine is the aggressor, they'll move in widely. I don't know where he'll end up, but the ultimate objective is the humiliation of the west and subjugation of Ukraine. What I think you'll see is a wide areal campaign destroying most of Ukraines military equipment, a take over of the entire black sea coast making Ukraine landlocked. Finally there'll be a "peace" treaty making Ukraine a substantially smaller landlocked country, forcing them to demilitarize, pay tribute etc.

_xnmw 5y ago
> Putin did not go through this massive hoopla just to get a small strip of land. He achieved his political objectives by just threatening invasion, without actually invading. An actual full-scale invasion is something nobody wants, least of all most ordinary Russians who have relatives in Ukraine. > you won't have to wait very long to see why I'd bet you on it if you set me a date. Westerners have been raising the alarm about a potential Russian invasion since time immemorial.
- martythemaniak 5y ago
  I'm down for a friendly or small sum bet. You'll see a major escalation in about a week. Russians will be firing missiles and artillery and dropping bombs in Ukraine proper in March. I certainly hope I lose.
  - _xnmw 5y ago
    You're on! $25 USD by TransferWise. There will be no further Russian military incursions into Ukraine proper by March 31st, except perhaps some shuffling around of the Donetsk/Luhansk border. Note I'm not expecting Putin to stop playing chess, he will never stop with his political power moves, he might blockade Odessa, but there will be no bloodshed. Mark my words. I look forward to peace in Ukraine, for the first time in 8 years. My email is in my profile.
    - martythemaniak 5y ago
      Sounds good. My email is my username at gmail. I hope you'll still stock up on various necessities and supplies in the mean time. If nothing happens, you'll still use them up all the same.
      - _xnmw 5y ago
        Looks like I just lost the bet. Woke up to explosions at 5 AM this morning.
        yakshaving_jgt 5y ago
        I hope you've learned your lesson.
- csee 5y ago
  If Russia claims the full oblasts which contain Ukrainian troops, how can they avoid war?
  - _xnmw 5y ago
    The assumption is that the actual borders of DNR and LNR will be solved by diplomacy, and Kyiv has hinted that it will try to find a diplomatic solution.
    - ncmncm 5y ago
      The same kind of diplomatic solution they just got, you mean?
betwixthewires 5y ago
They already claim the entire oblasts. This isn't about the humiliation of the west and the subjugation of Ukraine, this is about national defense strategy. The way the borders were set after the breakup of the USSR were based on certain assumptions that don't hold true today, and as a result Russia does not have a defensible border. With these annexations, they do. Additionally, it's a way to test what sort of response they'll get and prepare for similar responses in the future.
- disgruntledphd2 5y ago
  That's what I said about Crimea eight years ago.
- yks 5y ago
  What kind of argument is that? Because the empire lost its buffer colonies, it needs to re-acquire them again? Because it feels "vulnerable"? Vulnerable against whom? Against the countries the previous iteration of that empire sought to destroy? This "national defense strategy" is just a made up tale, another episode of russian propaganda that keeps poisoning generations after generations.
  - vkou 5y ago
    > What kind of argument is that? Because the empire lost its buffer colonies, it needs to re-acquire them again? It's how empires operate. It's not fair, but it is what it is. For an example of how this turned out when the shoe was on the other foot, look at Cuba. The world nearly ended in '63, because the American empire needed a 'buffer colony'. It's been a lifetime since the revolution, communism as a world ideology has been dead for a generation, but Cuba's still paying for the consequences of flipping allegiances. (The western world, sans the United States has normalized relations with it a very long time ago - so it's not an ongoing ideological problem...)
  - avgcorrection 5y ago
    It’s a Realist position on the matter. Ukraine is a vital security interest to Russia. That’s a descriptive opinion on the matter. Not a normative one.
sleepingadmin 5y ago
>I don't know where he'll end up, but the ultimate objective is the humiliation of the west and subjugation of Ukraine. Biden has said this was coming, biden has said this is complete invasion of ukraine. He's headed to kyiv.

_xnmw 5y ago

> Putin did not go through this massive hoopla just to get a small strip of land. He achieved his political objectives by just threatening invasion, without actually invading. An actual full-scale invasion is something nobody wants, least of all most ordinary Russians who have relatives in Ukraine. > you won't have to wait very long to see why I'd bet you on it if you set me a date. Westerners have been raising the alarm about a potential Russian invasion since time immemorial.

martythemaniak 5y ago
I'm down for a friendly or small sum bet. You'll see a major escalation in about a week. Russians will be firing missiles and artillery and dropping bombs in Ukraine proper in March. I certainly hope I lose.
- _xnmw 5y ago
  You're on! $25 USD by TransferWise. There will be no further Russian military incursions into Ukraine proper by March 31st, except perhaps some shuffling around of the Donetsk/Luhansk border. Note I'm not expecting Putin to stop playing chess, he will never stop with his political power moves, he might blockade Odessa, but there will be no bloodshed. Mark my words. I look forward to peace in Ukraine, for the first time in 8 years. My email is in my profile.
  - martythemaniak 5y ago
    Sounds good. My email is my username at gmail. I hope you'll still stock up on various necessities and supplies in the mean time. If nothing happens, you'll still use them up all the same.
    - _xnmw 5y ago
      Looks like I just lost the bet. Woke up to explosions at 5 AM this morning.
      - yakshaving_jgt 5y ago
        I hope you've learned your lesson.
csee 5y ago
If Russia claims the full oblasts which contain Ukrainian troops, how can they avoid war?
- _xnmw 5y ago
  The assumption is that the actual borders of DNR and LNR will be solved by diplomacy, and Kyiv has hinted that it will try to find a diplomatic solution.
  - ncmncm 5y ago
    The same kind of diplomatic solution they just got, you mean?

betwixthewires 5y ago

They already claim the entire oblasts. This isn't about the humiliation of the west and the subjugation of Ukraine, this is about national defense strategy. The way the borders were set after the breakup of the USSR were based on certain assumptions that don't hold true today, and as a result Russia does not have a defensible border. With these annexations, they do. Additionally, it's a way to test what sort of response they'll get and prepare for similar responses in the future.

disgruntledphd2 5y ago
That's what I said about Crimea eight years ago.
yks 5y ago
What kind of argument is that? Because the empire lost its buffer colonies, it needs to re-acquire them again? Because it feels "vulnerable"? Vulnerable against whom? Against the countries the previous iteration of that empire sought to destroy? This "national defense strategy" is just a made up tale, another episode of russian propaganda that keeps poisoning generations after generations.
- vkou 5y ago
  > What kind of argument is that? Because the empire lost its buffer colonies, it needs to re-acquire them again? It's how empires operate. It's not fair, but it is what it is. For an example of how this turned out when the shoe was on the other foot, look at Cuba. The world nearly ended in '63, because the American empire needed a 'buffer colony'. It's been a lifetime since the revolution, communism as a world ideology has been dead for a generation, but Cuba's still paying for the consequences of flipping allegiances. (The western world, sans the United States has normalized relations with it a very long time ago - so it's not an ongoing ideological problem...)
- avgcorrection 5y ago
  It’s a Realist position on the matter. Ukraine is a vital security interest to Russia. That’s a descriptive opinion on the matter. Not a normative one.

sleepingadmin 5y ago

>I don't know where he'll end up, but the ultimate objective is the humiliation of the west and subjugation of Ukraine. Biden has said this was coming, biden has said this is complete invasion of ukraine. He's headed to kyiv.