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My personal opinion: All this Ukraine stuff is also supported by China. I bet they are ready to buy Russian oil and gas to compensate even if this costs them m

by Loic 5y ago

My personal opinion: All this Ukraine stuff is also supported by China. I bet they are ready to buy Russian oil and gas to compensate even if this costs them more than getting them from the open market. Why? Because this is a wonderful test drive to check how the West (sorry for the approximation) is reacting to a country theoretically supported by the West being invaded by another one. For me, the next one on the line is Taiwan.

major505 5y ago
I don't think china is too happy about this separatist support since this sets a precedent for territories they consider separatists like Taiwan.
- gjsman-1000 5y ago
  Yes... and no. These are separatists who are operating with the support of Russia, and are (obviously) puppet states for Russia now that Russia is going to be sending "peacekeeping forces" within their territory. I don't think China would have any objection to separatists of any nation who wanted to spread communism and get Chinese backing. Actually, the fact that there aren't Taiwanese separatists for China is probably a disappointment.
  - thinkindie 5y ago
    spreading communism - LOL. China might spread their very own version of capitalism, which considering the amount of millionaires and the growing inequalities within China is far from any version of communism.
- tomp 5y ago
  I really don’t understand this logic. Or rather, it’s easy to turn it around. Russia’s claim is basically, “this is ethnically Russian population speaking Russian”. That’s exactly the same claim that China could make about Taiwan.
  - littlestymaar 5y ago
    > Russia’s claim is basically, “this is ethnically Russian population speaking Russian”. That’s exactly the same claim that China could make about Taiwan. And yet it's not China's claim over Taiwan (and the “speaking Russian” part is kind of difficult to transfer to China and Taiwan).
    - CRConrad 5y ago
      > (and the “speaking Russian” part is kind of difficult to transfer to China and Taiwan). Isn't the main language in Taiwan the same as in south-east mainland China? (What used to be called Cantonese, but maybe it goes by another name nowadays?)
      - TwoFerMaggie 5y ago
        There are at least two major languages (or dialects, depending on how you define it) in south-east mainland China. Cantonese and Hokkien. Cantonese is mainly spoken in Guangdong (historically known as Canton), and Hokkien mainly Fujian. They are two very different languages. There are a lot of people in Taiwan speaking Hokkien. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cantonese https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cantonese [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hokkien https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hokkien
        CRConrad 5y ago
        > Cantonese is mainly spoken in Guangdong (historically known as Canton) Yeah, I thought I'd got that right: The region has been renamed (or, arguably, just had the spelling revised to be more in line with the native pronunciation?). So why isn't the language now called Guangdongese? This modern PC-induced language revisionism can get pretty darn confusing in its inconsistency. > There are a lot of people in Taiwan speaking Hokkien. Which still seems to imply that even more people, i.e. a majority, speak Cantonese, right? I just meant that, since language is often a (sometimes minor, sometimes major) part of how "ethnicity" is defined, China could use an analogous "They even speak the same language!" argument. Not that I'm saying it's a valid argument -- just not logically impossible, as I think was argued or at least implied in some comment(s) above.
csee 5y ago
There's reasons to doubt this. First it's very short term thinking by China. Victory is assured for them if the boat isn't rocked too much and they continue the path of economic integration and economic growth. Their economy will be 2x the US economy and then they will be in a better position to assert their geopolitical interests. Second consider the consequences to China of NATO expansion in the East, which the UK has started to discuss as a good idea in the last few days. That is not good for China's geopolitical position.
- erispoe 5y ago
  China has a very short window of time before their demography crashes.
  - jb1991 5y ago
    What do you mean?
    - _ph_ 5y ago
      The one-child policy over many years was not only successful in stopping the population growth but also completely distorted the age structure of the population. So a large part of the Chinese population is going to retire in a few years leaving behind a comparatively small work force.
      - modo_mario 5y ago
        I wonder what their plan is for cushioning this. I heard they have efforts to entice people to have kids again but the now more urbanised and educated population isn't big on it. I also wonder how this will impact certain regions differently since for example the now very famous Uyghurs and some other minorities were exempt from one child policy till it ended in 2016. Will their regions fare better economically or is this taxation and application of it in elderly care, pensions, etc a more top down federal thing?
        5y ago
protontorpedo 5y ago
- gjsman-1000 5y ago
  Comments like this are arguably a violation of HN Guidelines. > "Please don't post shallow dismissals, especially of other people's work. A good critical comment teaches us something." > "Please don't comment about the voting on comments. It never does any good, and it makes boring reading." (edited in) https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
piokoch 5y ago
China is not stupid to become depended on Russian gas or oil supply. The deal they signed with Russia is for 38 billion cubic meters of gas sent through "Power of Siberia" gas pipe (for comparison, in 2006 Poland purchase from Russia 206 billion cubic meters) and this throughput will be reached in 2025. Russia has no practical way to transfer gas designated for Europe to China, there is no pipe they can use as gas comes from different sources. But yes, China is looking how Europe, USA, NATO is handling the situation as this will give some hints if "the West" is still capable to defend Taiwan, Philippines, Japan...
- littlestymaar 5y ago
  > Taiwan, Philippines, Japan... Come on, China is bad enough as it is, no need to overdo it with imaginary threats. (Edit: wow impressed by how fast these downvotes came. I wonder if it was triggered by the “China is bad” part or my point that a Chinese invasion of Japan or Philippines is a complete fantasy. In case it's the second part, you should probably take a break from American news…)
  - ravel-bar-foo 5y ago
    While Japan may be a stretch, it is not an exaggeration that China has designs on the territorial waters of the Phillipines and Vietnam and currently lodges diplomatic protests when Koreans flaunt their traditional culture, revealing something that looks like an expectation of tribute.
    - mytailorisrich 5y ago
      The issue between China (both PRC and Taiwan since they have the same claims) and the Philippines and Vietnam is with the South China Sea, namely the so-called "nine dash line" that includes areas also claimed by Vietnam and the Philippines. Interestingly, the Philippines were previously invaded and occupied by Spain, the US, and Japan but never China although one of their nearest neighbour... Likewise although there were conflicts and Northern Vietnam was briefly taken over by China 600 years ago, Vietnam was only fully colonised by France. This is just to point out that China is not historically as aggressive as we are in the West.
FartyMcFarter 5y ago
> All this Ukraine stuff is also supported by China. It is probably not a coincidence that the big move yesterday happened just after the Beijing Winter Olympics ended.
- oefrha 5y ago
  Olympic Truce, duh.
  - fendy3002 5y ago
    And today we're all brothers, Tonight we're all friends
WastingMyTime89 5y ago
If by supported you mean that China as an ally of Russia won't object to what is currently happening and probably view the situation as profitable then yes certainly. If you mean somewhat masterminded the whole thing as a test then I highly doubt that's what's happening. Russia has its own agenda and ambitions.
JumpCrisscross 5y ago
> All this Ukraine stuff is also supported by China Tolerated is a better word. There was ample ex ante evidence that the offensive was to be delayed until after the Olympics. And Russia being more beholden to Beijing as an energy supplier is certainly not bad. But supporting separatism, in any form, isn’t great for Beijing. And China has relations with Ukraine. Huawei has contracts. And China buys Ukrainian weapons.
- mytailorisrich 5y ago
  I'm not sure whether China sees Crimea and the Donbas as "separatism" (not good) or as Russia taking back what it lost, in which case they may be taking notes...
- nindalf 5y ago
  What weapons does China buy from Ukraine? Edit: seems like Ukraine services weapons bought from Russia after relations soured with Russia over claims of China copying the technology. (https://www.mei.edu/publications/why-ukraine-secret-weapon-chinas-airpower https://www.mei.edu/publications/why-ukraine-secret-weapon-c...).
- syki 5y ago
  Some Russians view Ukraine as legitimately part of Russia. China views Taiwan as part of China. China also wishes to garner as much support as possible for its desired takeover of Taiwan. The recent agreement between Russia and China spells out each country’s respective views on these matters. They are in agreement with each other.
  - dirtyid 5y ago
    The opposite. PRC subscribes to UN framework - it doesn't matter what some Russians or Taiwanese think, it's about norms within the framework. PRC and majority of UN views TW as part of China, it's a domestic / sovereignty issue. Whereas Ukraine is recognized as sovereign at UN, including by PRC, who has not formally recognized RU annexation of Crimea. RU further annexation of Ukraine undermines sovereignty of Ukraine which in PRC view normalizes foreign involvement in domestic affairs, i.e. US supporting TW in PRC/TW civil war. RU actions are against PRC interests in terms of international norms. Also PRC has not spelled out alignment on RU/UKR issue in terms of sovereignty, while Russian did endorse PRC's sovereignty position on TW, PRC statement of the meeting side stepped RU position on UKR. PRC position has been RU security interests should be respected, preferably via political settlement (Minsk) that doesn't involve violation of Ukrainian sovereignty. The parallel is PRC security interest in taking TW (again a domestic issue) should be respected, without outsiders like US violating Chinese sovereignty. It's going to be interesting to see how PRC attempts to square the circle now that Putin has invaded and stated UKR has no sovereignty.
kerneloftruth 5y ago
Putin and Xi see the comprehensive weakness of the Biden administration (it's as though projecting an image of weakness and incompetence was the administration's goal), and in that they see historic opportunity. Afghanistan proved their perceptions true. Yes, I think Taiwan will be back in China's hands by the end of the year.
Arnt 5y ago
According to the Wikipedia articles on the various pipelines, there is some technical readiness, at least 3%. As of today, the only operational pipeline carries about 3% of what Gazprom exports to Europe. It may be possible to boost that quickly, and the pipeline will eventually have a capacity of 30-40% of the European exports.
- modo_mario 5y ago
  And this helps to prevent Ukraine and other such eastern companies from having political pressure since instability there or intent to close the pipes to deprive Russia of revenue can just be sidestepped
  - Arnt 5y ago
    If you meant that since Russia has pipelines to China and also through the Ukraine, I think you might want to look at their capacity and current usage. Even if Russia had as much pipeline capacity to China as it has towards Europe, simply switching its exports isn't possible like that. Diverting 20% of Russian exports from Europe would require increasing Chinese usage by 100%. Doable, I'm sure, given the time to build a few dozen new gas-fired power plants and shutting down as much coal-fired capacity, but not done in a week.
    - modo_mario 5y ago
      No I meant the existing pipelines to Europe are not limiting capacity in a way that justifies nordstream2
throwaway4good 5y ago
The panda just wants to sit in the corner eating bamboo. Ultimately it will become so big, even the American eagle dares not challenge it.
gwbas1c 5y ago
It's much simpler than that. Invading a neighbor comes right out of the dictator's playbook. Putin's invading Ukraine to distract from his own domestic issues and to try to boost his popularity with the general Russian population. I don't think this has anything to do with China.
- krono 5y ago
  My pet theory is that Russia's natural resource production was looking to fall way short, so much so, even, that wouldn't be able to make their contractual obligations (i.e. international exports). This would have been an economic and political disaster. I guess we'll never know if I was right now, though, now that demand has fallen[0], supply has increased[1], and the people have been well distracted for some time to come. 0: https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-to-stop-nord-stream-2/ https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-to-stop-nord-stream-... 1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_gas_in_Ukraine#shale_gas https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_gas_in_Ukraine#shale_g...
  - agapon 5y ago
    My personal pet theory is that Russia is afraid that practical nuclear fusion will make them irrelevant on the energy market, and by extension at all. That's why they are trying to "seize the moment" while they can.
jagrsw 5y ago
Is the ultimate game for the West to ban export of chipsets to Russia? I mean, the West controls IP for x86 (PC) + ARM (Mobile) + PowerPC/MIPS (Network gear), and Russia cannot probably run their infrastructure on RISC-V alone, and their Elbrus ISA probably didn't take off? The West can ban Chinese companies and dependent states (S.Korea, Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan) from exporting chipsets and devices containing them to Russia. It'd be an interesting thing to see, how Russia would try to go around this. They will, but it will still be a big problem.
hef19898 5y ago
The traditional West isn't looking very good or strong at the moment. That started a very long time ago, and peaked with Trump and NATOs defeat by the Taliban and the incredibly botched retreat from Afghanistan. The EU started to look really bad with the revolutions in Northern Africa, because it was those regimes that kept the African refugees away from the EUs southern borders, and the EU could pretend to be both, totally open and pro human rights without having something hard to do for it. Once that Barriers were gone, the EU started to let people drown in the Mediterranean. Agree that this is also somewhat of a test, how far can you go militarily against NATO before there is a severe reaction. Pretty damn far I'd guess. The tests have been done when it comes to money, buying legitimacy and freedom to do whatever you want as far as rich and repressive regimes are concerned. The Olympics, FIFA and others come to mind. As does whatever the Saudis are usually up to. This behavior was always there, to some extend. When the freedom, pro-human rights West started doing the same shit during the war of terror, so, it gave carte blanche to everyone else.
trasz 5y ago
Except it isn't supported by China: https://www.wsj.com/articles/behind-chinas-warning-against-a-russian-invasion-is-a-desire-to-protect-ties-with-the-u-s-11645376565 https://www.wsj.com/articles/behind-chinas-warning-against-a...
- phkahler 5y ago
  Really? You think an article in the WSJ can possibly reveal anything about the full intentions of the CCP?
  - trasz 5y ago
    Of course not. But it's enough to disprove an unsourced FUD.
dathinab 5y ago
It's not a good test drive. The situation around Taiwan is fundamentally different and can't be compared. The US or even EU just care soso about Ukraine. The lost of trust of partners, lost face and potential follow up actions and consequences are things they care about more then the Ukraine itself. Hence why they didn't get too much involved in recent years. But at least the US cares _a lot_ about Taiwan and the EU should too.
- coolspot 5y ago
  That is why US helps TSMC to move factories to the US.
  - dathinab 5y ago
    The new US factories of TSMC are more about availability during a war then about not defending Taiwan. TSMC is a Taiwaneese company down to the core, they likely won't be around anymore if Taiwan is gone. Plus building semiconductor factories takes a long time, weather it's TSMC or Samsung. So China would need to wait for another ~8 Years.
lm28469 5y ago
> Because this is a wonderful test drive to check how the West It's also a test to see what's left of America's power after the Afghanistan debacle.
- thehappypm 5y ago
  This conflict hardly involves US interests. We’re involved insofar as our allies may need us to help them, but Ukraine is not important to the US
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
rosndo 5y ago
This theory is ridiculous. US and Europe are Chinas primary trade partners, Russia is irrelevant in comparison. Siding with Russia would further unify US and the EU, which is not something China desires. China will stay out of this, they have absolutely nothing to gain and everything to lose by siding with Russia.
bryanlarsen 5y ago
Right now Russia plays China off against the West and vice versa. If this triangle collapses into the traditional West vs East pair of alliances, Russia will be the junior partner and lose their superpower status. It'll also worsen their status in the States where we've got the strange situation of crystallizing the situation in the States of not being sure who the bad guy is: is it China or Russia? If they are allies then it is obvious they both are. Why Americans need an agreed upon bad guy to hate on is a different topic...

by Loic 5y ago

major505 5y ago

I don't think china is too happy about this separatist support since this sets a precedent for territories they consider separatists like Taiwan.

gjsman-1000 5y ago
Yes... and no. These are separatists who are operating with the support of Russia, and are (obviously) puppet states for Russia now that Russia is going to be sending "peacekeeping forces" within their territory. I don't think China would have any objection to separatists of any nation who wanted to spread communism and get Chinese backing. Actually, the fact that there aren't Taiwanese separatists for China is probably a disappointment.
- thinkindie 5y ago
  spreading communism - LOL. China might spread their very own version of capitalism, which considering the amount of millionaires and the growing inequalities within China is far from any version of communism.
tomp 5y ago
I really don’t understand this logic. Or rather, it’s easy to turn it around. Russia’s claim is basically, “this is ethnically Russian population speaking Russian”. That’s exactly the same claim that China could make about Taiwan.
- littlestymaar 5y ago
  > Russia’s claim is basically, “this is ethnically Russian population speaking Russian”. That’s exactly the same claim that China could make about Taiwan. And yet it's not China's claim over Taiwan (and the “speaking Russian” part is kind of difficult to transfer to China and Taiwan).
  - CRConrad 5y ago
    > (and the “speaking Russian” part is kind of difficult to transfer to China and Taiwan). Isn't the main language in Taiwan the same as in south-east mainland China? (What used to be called Cantonese, but maybe it goes by another name nowadays?)
    - TwoFerMaggie 5y ago
      There are at least two major languages (or dialects, depending on how you define it) in south-east mainland China. Cantonese and Hokkien. Cantonese is mainly spoken in Guangdong (historically known as Canton), and Hokkien mainly Fujian. They are two very different languages. There are a lot of people in Taiwan speaking Hokkien. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cantonese https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cantonese [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hokkien https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hokkien
      - CRConrad 5y ago
        > Cantonese is mainly spoken in Guangdong (historically known as Canton) Yeah, I thought I'd got that right: The region has been renamed (or, arguably, just had the spelling revised to be more in line with the native pronunciation?). So why isn't the language now called Guangdongese? This modern PC-induced language revisionism can get pretty darn confusing in its inconsistency. > There are a lot of people in Taiwan speaking Hokkien. Which still seems to imply that even more people, i.e. a majority, speak Cantonese, right? I just meant that, since language is often a (sometimes minor, sometimes major) part of how "ethnicity" is defined, China could use an analogous "They even speak the same language!" argument. Not that I'm saying it's a valid argument -- just not logically impossible, as I think was argued or at least implied in some comment(s) above.

csee 5y ago

There's reasons to doubt this. First it's very short term thinking by China. Victory is assured for them if the boat isn't rocked too much and they continue the path of economic integration and economic growth. Their economy will be 2x the US economy and then they will be in a better position to assert their geopolitical interests. Second consider the consequences to China of NATO expansion in the East, which the UK has started to discuss as a good idea in the last few days. That is not good for China's geopolitical position.

erispoe 5y ago
China has a very short window of time before their demography crashes.
- jb1991 5y ago
  What do you mean?
  - _ph_ 5y ago
    The one-child policy over many years was not only successful in stopping the population growth but also completely distorted the age structure of the population. So a large part of the Chinese population is going to retire in a few years leaving behind a comparatively small work force.
    - modo_mario 5y ago
      I wonder what their plan is for cushioning this. I heard they have efforts to entice people to have kids again but the now more urbanised and educated population isn't big on it. I also wonder how this will impact certain regions differently since for example the now very famous Uyghurs and some other minorities were exempt from one child policy till it ended in 2016. Will their regions fare better economically or is this taxation and application of it in elderly care, pensions, etc a more top down federal thing?
      - 5y ago

protontorpedo 5y ago

gjsman-1000 5y ago
Comments like this are arguably a violation of HN Guidelines. > "Please don't post shallow dismissals, especially of other people's work. A good critical comment teaches us something." > "Please don't comment about the voting on comments. It never does any good, and it makes boring reading." (edited in) https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

piokoch 5y ago

China is not stupid to become depended on Russian gas or oil supply. The deal they signed with Russia is for 38 billion cubic meters of gas sent through "Power of Siberia" gas pipe (for comparison, in 2006 Poland purchase from Russia 206 billion cubic meters) and this throughput will be reached in 2025. Russia has no practical way to transfer gas designated for Europe to China, there is no pipe they can use as gas comes from different sources. But yes, China is looking how Europe, USA, NATO is handling the situation as this will give some hints if "the West" is still capable to defend Taiwan, Philippines, Japan...

littlestymaar 5y ago
> Taiwan, Philippines, Japan... Come on, China is bad enough as it is, no need to overdo it with imaginary threats. (Edit: wow impressed by how fast these downvotes came. I wonder if it was triggered by the “China is bad” part or my point that a Chinese invasion of Japan or Philippines is a complete fantasy. In case it's the second part, you should probably take a break from American news…)
- ravel-bar-foo 5y ago
  While Japan may be a stretch, it is not an exaggeration that China has designs on the territorial waters of the Phillipines and Vietnam and currently lodges diplomatic protests when Koreans flaunt their traditional culture, revealing something that looks like an expectation of tribute.
  - mytailorisrich 5y ago
    The issue between China (both PRC and Taiwan since they have the same claims) and the Philippines and Vietnam is with the South China Sea, namely the so-called "nine dash line" that includes areas also claimed by Vietnam and the Philippines. Interestingly, the Philippines were previously invaded and occupied by Spain, the US, and Japan but never China although one of their nearest neighbour... Likewise although there were conflicts and Northern Vietnam was briefly taken over by China 600 years ago, Vietnam was only fully colonised by France. This is just to point out that China is not historically as aggressive as we are in the West.

FartyMcFarter 5y ago

> All this Ukraine stuff is also supported by China. It is probably not a coincidence that the big move yesterday happened just after the Beijing Winter Olympics ended.

oefrha 5y ago
Olympic Truce, duh.
- fendy3002 5y ago
  And today we're all brothers, Tonight we're all friends

WastingMyTime89 5y ago

If by supported you mean that China as an ally of Russia won't object to what is currently happening and probably view the situation as profitable then yes certainly. If you mean somewhat masterminded the whole thing as a test then I highly doubt that's what's happening. Russia has its own agenda and ambitions.

JumpCrisscross 5y ago

> All this Ukraine stuff is also supported by China Tolerated is a better word. There was ample ex ante evidence that the offensive was to be delayed until after the Olympics. And Russia being more beholden to Beijing as an energy supplier is certainly not bad. But supporting separatism, in any form, isn’t great for Beijing. And China has relations with Ukraine. Huawei has contracts. And China buys Ukrainian weapons.

mytailorisrich 5y ago
I'm not sure whether China sees Crimea and the Donbas as "separatism" (not good) or as Russia taking back what it lost, in which case they may be taking notes...
nindalf 5y ago
What weapons does China buy from Ukraine? Edit: seems like Ukraine services weapons bought from Russia after relations soured with Russia over claims of China copying the technology. (https://www.mei.edu/publications/why-ukraine-secret-weapon-chinas-airpower https://www.mei.edu/publications/why-ukraine-secret-weapon-c...).
syki 5y ago
Some Russians view Ukraine as legitimately part of Russia. China views Taiwan as part of China. China also wishes to garner as much support as possible for its desired takeover of Taiwan. The recent agreement between Russia and China spells out each country’s respective views on these matters. They are in agreement with each other.
- dirtyid 5y ago
  The opposite. PRC subscribes to UN framework - it doesn't matter what some Russians or Taiwanese think, it's about norms within the framework. PRC and majority of UN views TW as part of China, it's a domestic / sovereignty issue. Whereas Ukraine is recognized as sovereign at UN, including by PRC, who has not formally recognized RU annexation of Crimea. RU further annexation of Ukraine undermines sovereignty of Ukraine which in PRC view normalizes foreign involvement in domestic affairs, i.e. US supporting TW in PRC/TW civil war. RU actions are against PRC interests in terms of international norms. Also PRC has not spelled out alignment on RU/UKR issue in terms of sovereignty, while Russian did endorse PRC's sovereignty position on TW, PRC statement of the meeting side stepped RU position on UKR. PRC position has been RU security interests should be respected, preferably via political settlement (Minsk) that doesn't involve violation of Ukrainian sovereignty. The parallel is PRC security interest in taking TW (again a domestic issue) should be respected, without outsiders like US violating Chinese sovereignty. It's going to be interesting to see how PRC attempts to square the circle now that Putin has invaded and stated UKR has no sovereignty.

kerneloftruth 5y ago

Putin and Xi see the comprehensive weakness of the Biden administration (it's as though projecting an image of weakness and incompetence was the administration's goal), and in that they see historic opportunity. Afghanistan proved their perceptions true. Yes, I think Taiwan will be back in China's hands by the end of the year.

Arnt 5y ago

According to the Wikipedia articles on the various pipelines, there is some technical readiness, at least 3%. As of today, the only operational pipeline carries about 3% of what Gazprom exports to Europe. It may be possible to boost that quickly, and the pipeline will eventually have a capacity of 30-40% of the European exports.

modo_mario 5y ago
And this helps to prevent Ukraine and other such eastern companies from having political pressure since instability there or intent to close the pipes to deprive Russia of revenue can just be sidestepped
- Arnt 5y ago
  If you meant that since Russia has pipelines to China and also through the Ukraine, I think you might want to look at their capacity and current usage. Even if Russia had as much pipeline capacity to China as it has towards Europe, simply switching its exports isn't possible like that. Diverting 20% of Russian exports from Europe would require increasing Chinese usage by 100%. Doable, I'm sure, given the time to build a few dozen new gas-fired power plants and shutting down as much coal-fired capacity, but not done in a week.
  - modo_mario 5y ago
    No I meant the existing pipelines to Europe are not limiting capacity in a way that justifies nordstream2

throwaway4good 5y ago

The panda just wants to sit in the corner eating bamboo. Ultimately it will become so big, even the American eagle dares not challenge it.

gwbas1c 5y ago

It's much simpler than that. Invading a neighbor comes right out of the dictator's playbook. Putin's invading Ukraine to distract from his own domestic issues and to try to boost his popularity with the general Russian population. I don't think this has anything to do with China.

krono 5y ago
My pet theory is that Russia's natural resource production was looking to fall way short, so much so, even, that wouldn't be able to make their contractual obligations (i.e. international exports). This would have been an economic and political disaster. I guess we'll never know if I was right now, though, now that demand has fallen[0], supply has increased[1], and the people have been well distracted for some time to come. 0: https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-to-stop-nord-stream-2/ https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-to-stop-nord-stream-... 1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_gas_in_Ukraine#shale_gas https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_gas_in_Ukraine#shale_g...
- agapon 5y ago
  My personal pet theory is that Russia is afraid that practical nuclear fusion will make them irrelevant on the energy market, and by extension at all. That's why they are trying to "seize the moment" while they can.

jagrsw 5y ago

Is the ultimate game for the West to ban export of chipsets to Russia? I mean, the West controls IP for x86 (PC) + ARM (Mobile) + PowerPC/MIPS (Network gear), and Russia cannot probably run their infrastructure on RISC-V alone, and their Elbrus ISA probably didn't take off? The West can ban Chinese companies and dependent states (S.Korea, Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan) from exporting chipsets and devices containing them to Russia. It'd be an interesting thing to see, how Russia would try to go around this. They will, but it will still be a big problem.

hef19898 5y ago

The traditional West isn't looking very good or strong at the moment. That started a very long time ago, and peaked with Trump and NATOs defeat by the Taliban and the incredibly botched retreat from Afghanistan. The EU started to look really bad with the revolutions in Northern Africa, because it was those regimes that kept the African refugees away from the EUs southern borders, and the EU could pretend to be both, totally open and pro human rights without having something hard to do for it. Once that Barriers were gone, the EU started to let people drown in the Mediterranean. Agree that this is also somewhat of a test, how far can you go militarily against NATO before there is a severe reaction. Pretty damn far I'd guess. The tests have been done when it comes to money, buying legitimacy and freedom to do whatever you want as far as rich and repressive regimes are concerned. The Olympics, FIFA and others come to mind. As does whatever the Saudis are usually up to. This behavior was always there, to some extend. When the freedom, pro-human rights West started doing the same shit during the war of terror, so, it gave carte blanche to everyone else.

trasz 5y ago

Except it isn't supported by China: https://www.wsj.com/articles/behind-chinas-warning-against-a-russian-invasion-is-a-desire-to-protect-ties-with-the-u-s-11645376565 https://www.wsj.com/articles/behind-chinas-warning-against-a...

phkahler 5y ago
Really? You think an article in the WSJ can possibly reveal anything about the full intentions of the CCP?
- trasz 5y ago
  Of course not. But it's enough to disprove an unsourced FUD.

dathinab 5y ago

It's not a good test drive. The situation around Taiwan is fundamentally different and can't be compared. The US or even EU just care soso about Ukraine. The lost of trust of partners, lost face and potential follow up actions and consequences are things they care about more then the Ukraine itself. Hence why they didn't get too much involved in recent years. But at least the US cares _a lot_ about Taiwan and the EU should too.

coolspot 5y ago
That is why US helps TSMC to move factories to the US.
- dathinab 5y ago
  The new US factories of TSMC are more about availability during a war then about not defending Taiwan. TSMC is a Taiwaneese company down to the core, they likely won't be around anymore if Taiwan is gone. Plus building semiconductor factories takes a long time, weather it's TSMC or Samsung. So China would need to wait for another ~8 Years.

lm28469 5y ago

> Because this is a wonderful test drive to check how the West It's also a test to see what's left of America's power after the Afghanistan debacle.

thehappypm 5y ago
This conflict hardly involves US interests. We’re involved insofar as our allies may need us to help them, but Ukraine is not important to the US

deleted 5y ago

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rosndo 5y ago

This theory is ridiculous. US and Europe are Chinas primary trade partners, Russia is irrelevant in comparison. Siding with Russia would further unify US and the EU, which is not something China desires. China will stay out of this, they have absolutely nothing to gain and everything to lose by siding with Russia.

bryanlarsen 5y ago

Right now Russia plays China off against the West and vice versa. If this triangle collapses into the traditional West vs East pair of alliances, Russia will be the junior partner and lose their superpower status. It'll also worsen their status in the States where we've got the strange situation of crystallizing the situation in the States of not being sure who the bad guy is: is it China or Russia? If they are allies then it is obvious they both are. Why Americans need an agreed upon bad guy to hate on is a different topic...