11 ms·

There needs to be an escalation path. Sanctions should always be able to get worse, or else Russia would no longer have anything to lose, and Europe won't have

by relix 5y ago

There needs to be an escalation path. Sanctions should always be able to get worse, or else Russia would no longer have anything to lose, and Europe won't have anything left to threaten with. Once in that situation it would be a recipe for a hot war between NATO and Russia.

hawk_ 5y ago
Isn't saying that energy sector won't be touched a few days before Putin's latest declaration showing our hand too much though.
- sitkack 5y ago
  Don't those natural gas pipelines go through the Ukraine? Regardless of how they get destroyed, when they do, Russia will have everything it needs to justify a full invasion. https://www.nationalgeographic.org/photo/europe-map/ https://www.nationalgeographic.org/photo/europe-map/
  - throwaway3b03 5y ago
    Wasn't that the whole point of NS2, to have a pipeline that doesn't go through Ukraine?
    - _ph_ 5y ago
      Right. And that is why many in germany oppose it. With the recent developments, it might be dead completely.
      - dogma1138 5y ago
        It’s already complete, Germany is also opposing any economic sanctions that target Russia’s energy sector.
      - twelve40 5y ago
        > that is why many in germany oppose it Hm... why? Because the Germans, out of goodness of their hearts, want the Russians to keep dumping the annual $1.5bil+ transit fees into Ukraine? It's the same exact dependency on the same exact gas, just delivered through a bunch of countries each grabbing a cut, instead of directly.
        soco 5y ago
        Maybe because some of them (like here and everywhere) put sometimes ideology before the wallet. We're to see though how many and how consequently.
        zx85wes 5y ago
        Easy to say for those who can absorb the higher energy cost. Millions of Germans can't.
        soco 5y ago
        I expect that Germany (the state) will shoulder some of those costs. But I'm not a German so I'll have to see what happens, because right now the project was officially put on ice.
      - zx85wes 5y ago
        NS2 has always been a carrot that Russia was never going to get.
    - LargoLasskhyfv 5y ago
      This map is not current. It lacks NS1 leading from Wyborg, Russia, most eastern Baltic Sea to Lubmin, Germany, since 2011, right next to Rostock in the western Baltic Sea(in the scale of that map). And NS2 mostly parallel to it, with the exception of starting in Ust-Luga, Russia. Maybe try https://www.gie.eu/publications/maps/ https://www.gie.eu/publications/maps/ for a more complete view.
Teever 5y ago
The last decade or so hasn't been enough an escalation path?
purple_ferret 5y ago
Russia knows exactly how to play this game though, especially with the cooperation of China. They know Germans, in particular, would rather give up all of Eastern Europe than risk harming their own economy.
- redwood 5y ago
  The idea of an EU without a mutual defense treaty is so absurd
  - danuker 5y ago
    The idea of an EU defense treaty is also redundant after NATO.
    - icare_1er 5y ago
      The idea of a NATO is redundant after the end of USSR.
      - nickpp 5y ago
        A defense treaty is never redundant. Case to the point.
        sofixa 5y ago
        Considering one of the "official" casus belli is that Ukraine might join NATO, is it?
      - redwood 5y ago
        That is quite clearly not true
    - redwood 5y ago
      Not true when two of the three muscular nato powers aren't in the EU
unfocussed_mike 5y ago
The extraordinary extent to which huge chunks of London and the political alt-right across Europe and the USA relies on Putin's (and other oligarchs') laundered wealth is really a brake on any ambitions that sanctions will work. You can't stop Putin's illicit private wealth (he's probably the richest man in the world) spreading through the West because it already did. There will be no co-ordinated all-party pushback against Russia in the USA or the UK, because big chunks of the political system of both are aware of the side on which their bread has been buttered for some time. And a lot of alt-right figures who have spent years saying that it's a lie that they have Russian support, but at the same time that Putin is a strong leader the West can learn from, are either going to go silent, obstruct or outright attack any sanctions measures. I don't just mean the obvious people. It's going to be very, very illuminating. And that is before you look at the soft power issue of, well, exported power in Europe.
- Grustaf 5y ago
  Aren't sanctions rather used to punish the people, until they rise up against the leader we want to get rid of?
  - PaulDavisThe1st 5y ago
    In the specific case of Russia, and other examples in the last several decades, there have been specific attempts to direct most of the pain at the rich and powerful classes in the target countries. You could argue (somewhat cynically but perhaps correctly) that these represent the only demographic capable of pushing change.
    - unfocussed_mike 5y ago
      Put more succinctly than I managed!
  - unfocussed_mike 5y ago
    Yes and no -- current sanctions against Russia are aimed at illicit wealth, and they likely still will be. Western governments will probably try not to use sanctions that primarily hurt the Russian people, because there is little hope that will work; Putin has spent a decade building an explicitly backward-looking, history-whitewashing kind of nationalism, and people might tire of that, sure, but he's also been very good at very publicly helping his opponents more fully experience the view from high windows. Remember Don Jr's meeting with the Russians that was supposedly about adoption? It was actually the Magnitsky Act the Russians really wanted to talk about (they want it gone). He said as much himself, and it's clear that even the people advising the Trump campaign were decidedly chilly on the idea of getting rid of it. Global Magnitsky legislation is why Russia is upping the ante. While I'm no scholar of it, I would expect the West to start with strengthened Magnitsky-type sanctions that prevent oligarchs from getting their money out before things go bad. Because it is the oligarchs who can uproot Putin most quickly. Putin is personally weak and isolated at this point -- clearly either clinically vulnerable or otherwise terrified of catching Covid, and distrustful of everyone around him. He's clearly acting more emotionally and less rationally. Sanctions that target -- or isolate -- the wealth of his closest circle of oligarchs are more likely to get somewhere, because they will gnaw away at his sense of invulnerability.
topper-123 5y ago
Sanctions obviously isn’t a viable deterrent against Russia, so sanctions at this point is just giving the optics of action. The underlying problem is no doubt the dependency on Russia for energy. Europe will have to fix this problem as soon as possible.
- unfocussed_mike 5y ago
  Sanctions targeting oligarch wealth (making it impossible to move more money out of Russia, or targeting Russian businesses in which they hold stakes etc.) might well work. As would international restrictions on the movements of oligarchs, politicians and their families. It seems to me that this move from Putin is rather more unhinged than normal, and a lot of people around him will be looking for the exits. Denying them the exits so they have to stay home and do something about it might be a better strategy. I think we will see some quite inventive sanctions rolling out from tomorrow.
  - zx85wes 5y ago
    They'd be doing him a favour if they target these oligarchs, and that's why they haven't done it yet. https://www.cnbc.com/2015/03/20/putin-urges-billionaires-to-bring-money-back-to-russia.html https://www.cnbc.com/2015/03/20/putin-urges-billionaires-to-...
    - unfocussed_mike 5y ago
      The sanctions won't let them bring that money back at all -- they will likely prevent large transactions full stop, so oligarch money can't return. It will stop them exfiltrating further wealth, and that ought to scare them enough when the walls start closing in, as they will. There will come a time when Putin threatens an escalating global conflict and that is when they will finish him. Perhaps literally.
stjohnswarts 5y ago
I think we could start now by freezing ALL known russian oligarch assets in USA, Europe and friendly countries and anywhere else we can persuade countries to do this. They are the only ones who can apply pressure to Putin.
- RustyBucket 5y ago
  Hurting and wiping out oligarchs would be a great favor to common Russian folk!
- twelve40 5y ago
  So then it's funny how it's clearly not a huge concern for him right now? I wonder why. I mean, it's not like he makes today's announcement, and then says, oh snap, I didn't think of all my oligarch friends, they are the only ones that can apply pressure to me, I shall change my mind immediately.
  - stjohnswarts 5y ago
    They are the only ones in the country who have any influence on him and his attempts at expansion.
- unfocussed_mike 5y ago
  You're talking about possibly a trillion dollars there, much of it very well-embedded and passing through funds from banks like Deutsche. It would be difficult to do this retrospectively with anything like enough speed to have an effect. The fresh money they want to funnel out of the country before the roof caves in, yeah. And you can probably carefully target a few oligarch-controlled Russian businesses to make it difficult for them to find further legitimacy in the West. They will start doing that tomorrow, by the looks of it. And there are probably a few visas that are due to be extended that might come under some scrutiny -- particularly in the UK, Spain and Malta.
  - stjohnswarts 5y ago
    Who cares how much it is? Just freeze it. I didn't say sieze it (yet) . This is their fault for coddling a guy who has progressively gotten unbalanced as he's gotten over. I bet Putin won't let any high level person (oligarch) scurry out of the country right now.

by relix 5y ago

hawk_ 5y ago

Isn't saying that energy sector won't be touched a few days before Putin's latest declaration showing our hand too much though.

sitkack 5y ago
Don't those natural gas pipelines go through the Ukraine? Regardless of how they get destroyed, when they do, Russia will have everything it needs to justify a full invasion. https://www.nationalgeographic.org/photo/europe-map/ https://www.nationalgeographic.org/photo/europe-map/
- throwaway3b03 5y ago
  Wasn't that the whole point of NS2, to have a pipeline that doesn't go through Ukraine?
  - _ph_ 5y ago
    Right. And that is why many in germany oppose it. With the recent developments, it might be dead completely.
    - dogma1138 5y ago
      It’s already complete, Germany is also opposing any economic sanctions that target Russia’s energy sector.
    - twelve40 5y ago
      > that is why many in germany oppose it Hm... why? Because the Germans, out of goodness of their hearts, want the Russians to keep dumping the annual $1.5bil+ transit fees into Ukraine? It's the same exact dependency on the same exact gas, just delivered through a bunch of countries each grabbing a cut, instead of directly.
      - soco 5y ago
        Maybe because some of them (like here and everywhere) put sometimes ideology before the wallet. We're to see though how many and how consequently.
        zx85wes 5y ago
        Easy to say for those who can absorb the higher energy cost. Millions of Germans can't.
        soco 5y ago
        I expect that Germany (the state) will shoulder some of those costs. But I'm not a German so I'll have to see what happens, because right now the project was officially put on ice.
    - zx85wes 5y ago
      NS2 has always been a carrot that Russia was never going to get.
  - LargoLasskhyfv 5y ago
    This map is not current. It lacks NS1 leading from Wyborg, Russia, most eastern Baltic Sea to Lubmin, Germany, since 2011, right next to Rostock in the western Baltic Sea(in the scale of that map). And NS2 mostly parallel to it, with the exception of starting in Ust-Luga, Russia. Maybe try https://www.gie.eu/publications/maps/ https://www.gie.eu/publications/maps/ for a more complete view.

Teever 5y ago

The last decade or so hasn't been enough an escalation path?

purple_ferret 5y ago

Russia knows exactly how to play this game though, especially with the cooperation of China. They know Germans, in particular, would rather give up all of Eastern Europe than risk harming their own economy.

redwood 5y ago
The idea of an EU without a mutual defense treaty is so absurd
- danuker 5y ago
  The idea of an EU defense treaty is also redundant after NATO.
  - icare_1er 5y ago
    The idea of a NATO is redundant after the end of USSR.
    - nickpp 5y ago
      A defense treaty is never redundant. Case to the point.
      - sofixa 5y ago
        Considering one of the "official" casus belli is that Ukraine might join NATO, is it?
    - redwood 5y ago
      That is quite clearly not true
  - redwood 5y ago
    Not true when two of the three muscular nato powers aren't in the EU

unfocussed_mike 5y ago

The extraordinary extent to which huge chunks of London and the political alt-right across Europe and the USA relies on Putin's (and other oligarchs') laundered wealth is really a brake on any ambitions that sanctions will work. You can't stop Putin's illicit private wealth (he's probably the richest man in the world) spreading through the West because it already did. There will be no co-ordinated all-party pushback against Russia in the USA or the UK, because big chunks of the political system of both are aware of the side on which their bread has been buttered for some time. And a lot of alt-right figures who have spent years saying that it's a lie that they have Russian support, but at the same time that Putin is a strong leader the West can learn from, are either going to go silent, obstruct or outright attack any sanctions measures. I don't just mean the obvious people. It's going to be very, very illuminating. And that is before you look at the soft power issue of, well, exported power in Europe.

Grustaf 5y ago
Aren't sanctions rather used to punish the people, until they rise up against the leader we want to get rid of?
- PaulDavisThe1st 5y ago
  In the specific case of Russia, and other examples in the last several decades, there have been specific attempts to direct most of the pain at the rich and powerful classes in the target countries. You could argue (somewhat cynically but perhaps correctly) that these represent the only demographic capable of pushing change.
  - unfocussed_mike 5y ago
    Put more succinctly than I managed!
- unfocussed_mike 5y ago
  Yes and no -- current sanctions against Russia are aimed at illicit wealth, and they likely still will be. Western governments will probably try not to use sanctions that primarily hurt the Russian people, because there is little hope that will work; Putin has spent a decade building an explicitly backward-looking, history-whitewashing kind of nationalism, and people might tire of that, sure, but he's also been very good at very publicly helping his opponents more fully experience the view from high windows. Remember Don Jr's meeting with the Russians that was supposedly about adoption? It was actually the Magnitsky Act the Russians really wanted to talk about (they want it gone). He said as much himself, and it's clear that even the people advising the Trump campaign were decidedly chilly on the idea of getting rid of it. Global Magnitsky legislation is why Russia is upping the ante. While I'm no scholar of it, I would expect the West to start with strengthened Magnitsky-type sanctions that prevent oligarchs from getting their money out before things go bad. Because it is the oligarchs who can uproot Putin most quickly. Putin is personally weak and isolated at this point -- clearly either clinically vulnerable or otherwise terrified of catching Covid, and distrustful of everyone around him. He's clearly acting more emotionally and less rationally. Sanctions that target -- or isolate -- the wealth of his closest circle of oligarchs are more likely to get somewhere, because they will gnaw away at his sense of invulnerability.

topper-123 5y ago

Sanctions obviously isn’t a viable deterrent against Russia, so sanctions at this point is just giving the optics of action. The underlying problem is no doubt the dependency on Russia for energy. Europe will have to fix this problem as soon as possible.

unfocussed_mike 5y ago
Sanctions targeting oligarch wealth (making it impossible to move more money out of Russia, or targeting Russian businesses in which they hold stakes etc.) might well work. As would international restrictions on the movements of oligarchs, politicians and their families. It seems to me that this move from Putin is rather more unhinged than normal, and a lot of people around him will be looking for the exits. Denying them the exits so they have to stay home and do something about it might be a better strategy. I think we will see some quite inventive sanctions rolling out from tomorrow.
- zx85wes 5y ago
  They'd be doing him a favour if they target these oligarchs, and that's why they haven't done it yet. https://www.cnbc.com/2015/03/20/putin-urges-billionaires-to-bring-money-back-to-russia.html https://www.cnbc.com/2015/03/20/putin-urges-billionaires-to-...
  - unfocussed_mike 5y ago
    The sanctions won't let them bring that money back at all -- they will likely prevent large transactions full stop, so oligarch money can't return. It will stop them exfiltrating further wealth, and that ought to scare them enough when the walls start closing in, as they will. There will come a time when Putin threatens an escalating global conflict and that is when they will finish him. Perhaps literally.

stjohnswarts 5y ago

I think we could start now by freezing ALL known russian oligarch assets in USA, Europe and friendly countries and anywhere else we can persuade countries to do this. They are the only ones who can apply pressure to Putin.

RustyBucket 5y ago
Hurting and wiping out oligarchs would be a great favor to common Russian folk!
twelve40 5y ago
So then it's funny how it's clearly not a huge concern for him right now? I wonder why. I mean, it's not like he makes today's announcement, and then says, oh snap, I didn't think of all my oligarch friends, they are the only ones that can apply pressure to me, I shall change my mind immediately.
- stjohnswarts 5y ago
  They are the only ones in the country who have any influence on him and his attempts at expansion.
unfocussed_mike 5y ago
You're talking about possibly a trillion dollars there, much of it very well-embedded and passing through funds from banks like Deutsche. It would be difficult to do this retrospectively with anything like enough speed to have an effect. The fresh money they want to funnel out of the country before the roof caves in, yeah. And you can probably carefully target a few oligarch-controlled Russian businesses to make it difficult for them to find further legitimacy in the West. They will start doing that tomorrow, by the looks of it. And there are probably a few visas that are due to be extended that might come under some scrutiny -- particularly in the UK, Spain and Malta.
- stjohnswarts 5y ago
  Who cares how much it is? Just freeze it. I didn't say sieze it (yet) . This is their fault for coddling a guy who has progressively gotten unbalanced as he's gotten over. I bet Putin won't let any high level person (oligarch) scurry out of the country right now.