8 ms·

A Java library for technical analysis

56 points by _benj 5y ago

ghovertyi 5y ago
laurensr 5y ago
In finance, technical analysis is an analysis methodology for forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume [1] [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_analysis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_analysis
agumonkey 5y ago
Note that TA is old, and often these days subject to game-theory like flukes because everybody knows what everybody is trying to see.
- tomc1985 5y ago
  But that also gives it power... the more people act on a given indicator the more powerful (even predictable) it becomes So then you end up with this weird catch-22 where the indicator only has value because people are watching it, while it is those people watching it that gives them their power. They aren't going to be as useful for forecasting the big institutional curbstomps that seem to characterize volatility today, but there are other ways of understanding how those guys behave.
  - szundi 5y ago
    If more and more people know this, it loses power
    - tomc1985 5y ago
      It isn't whether or not more and more people know it, it's weather or not they can overcome their emotions to use it effectively. And I think that proportion of people will continue to remain insignificant
    - sumedh 5y ago
      That depends, the prices sometimes jump up or down the TA lines and moving averages, that is when lot of people get out but then the trend reverses and follows whatever the original pattern was. So you still have to make a decision which may or may not be right.
  - agumonkey 5y ago
    The self fulfilling prophecy aspect of speculative trading is often one of the first thing a trader notices. Now I really wonder if that's not a necessity of semi chaotic systems. A predictable game has no gain to offer, a fully chaotic game is unplayable.. the players will settle on a few emergent patterns to create a form of ladder.
    - tomc1985 5y ago
      > emergent patterns to create a form of ladder While I think there are very strong whiffs of alchemy (i.e. belief) in a lot of forms of technical analysis, a number of these patterns have a psychosocial story to them, and the pattern itself is the fingerprint of how that story manifests. (Much like how an earthquake leaves a predictable pattern on a seismograph)
      - agumonkey 5y ago
        You say alchemy I say superstition. Actually trading at the quant level was the deepest anthropological experiment I ever saw. So much reptilian emotions it was incredible :)
adamnemecek 5y ago
Does anyone actually use technical analysis?
- artdigital 5y ago
  I do I don’t plan all my investing around it of course, but being able to quickly read a chart with oscillators like RSI, or spotting bearish patterns (head and shoulders, bear flag) can tell me that maybe I should wait a bit more before entering to see if it actually falls, or if it breaks out and establishes a more uptrend TA = good to get an idea what’s going on in the market until now
- sumedh 5y ago
  I did few times and made some money ( although I am still not sure if it was luck or my skill) but in the end watching the market all the time got boring and I still had to do my job so I stopped.
- henning 5y ago
  Bro, would I be driving a Lambo if I didn't? Sign up for my online course to find out!
- relueeuler 5y ago
  No one worth anything in finance. Plenty of folks in Main Street do, but they don’t know any better, so you’ll have to forgive them. The lesson is simple: you can’t predict future price based on price history.
- Bostonian 5y ago
  Many academics have studied momentum, both cross-sectional momentum and time-series momentum, and many quant firms use it as one of their factors in trading stocks, bonds, and commodities.
- wswope 5y ago
  I’ve been doing a lot of technical analysis for funsies… using market data from the game Old School Runescape (an MMO with a centralized exchange for trades between players). It’s really fun! Much easier to find success when you’re not in a zero sum competition against a bunch of quants and don’t have your whole livelihood at stake. Highly recommend it for anyone who wants a “day trading simulator” experience.

56 points by _benj 5y ago

In finance, technical analysis is an analysis methodology for forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume [1] [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_analysis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_analysis

agumonkey 5y ago

Note that TA is old, and often these days subject to game-theory like flukes because everybody knows what everybody is trying to see.

tomc1985 5y ago
But that also gives it power... the more people act on a given indicator the more powerful (even predictable) it becomes So then you end up with this weird catch-22 where the indicator only has value because people are watching it, while it is those people watching it that gives them their power. They aren't going to be as useful for forecasting the big institutional curbstomps that seem to characterize volatility today, but there are other ways of understanding how those guys behave.
- szundi 5y ago
  If more and more people know this, it loses power
  - tomc1985 5y ago
    It isn't whether or not more and more people know it, it's weather or not they can overcome their emotions to use it effectively. And I think that proportion of people will continue to remain insignificant
  - sumedh 5y ago
    That depends, the prices sometimes jump up or down the TA lines and moving averages, that is when lot of people get out but then the trend reverses and follows whatever the original pattern was. So you still have to make a decision which may or may not be right.
- agumonkey 5y ago
  The self fulfilling prophecy aspect of speculative trading is often one of the first thing a trader notices. Now I really wonder if that's not a necessity of semi chaotic systems. A predictable game has no gain to offer, a fully chaotic game is unplayable.. the players will settle on a few emergent patterns to create a form of ladder.
  - tomc1985 5y ago
    > emergent patterns to create a form of ladder While I think there are very strong whiffs of alchemy (i.e. belief) in a lot of forms of technical analysis, a number of these patterns have a psychosocial story to them, and the pattern itself is the fingerprint of how that story manifests. (Much like how an earthquake leaves a predictable pattern on a seismograph)
    - agumonkey 5y ago
      You say alchemy I say superstition. Actually trading at the quant level was the deepest anthropological experiment I ever saw. So much reptilian emotions it was incredible :)

adamnemecek 5y ago

Does anyone actually use technical analysis?

artdigital 5y ago
I do I don’t plan all my investing around it of course, but being able to quickly read a chart with oscillators like RSI, or spotting bearish patterns (head and shoulders, bear flag) can tell me that maybe I should wait a bit more before entering to see if it actually falls, or if it breaks out and establishes a more uptrend TA = good to get an idea what’s going on in the market until now
sumedh 5y ago
I did few times and made some money ( although I am still not sure if it was luck or my skill) but in the end watching the market all the time got boring and I still had to do my job so I stopped.
henning 5y ago
Bro, would I be driving a Lambo if I didn't? Sign up for my online course to find out!
relueeuler 5y ago
No one worth anything in finance. Plenty of folks in Main Street do, but they don’t know any better, so you’ll have to forgive them. The lesson is simple: you can’t predict future price based on price history.
Bostonian 5y ago
Many academics have studied momentum, both cross-sectional momentum and time-series momentum, and many quant firms use it as one of their factors in trading stocks, bonds, and commodities.
wswope 5y ago
I’ve been doing a lot of technical analysis for funsies… using market data from the game Old School Runescape (an MMO with a centralized exchange for trades between players). It’s really fun! Much easier to find success when you’re not in a zero sum competition against a bunch of quants and don’t have your whole livelihood at stake. Highly recommend it for anyone who wants a “day trading simulator” experience.