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The U.S. is now energy independent

144 points by lxm 5y ago

jimmygrapes 5y ago
This is a weird article. It is short and lacking detail, does not link any sources, and presents its data as if it's a first (it is not[0]). It reads, to be honest, as propaganda, especially considering the current rise in consumer prices for fuel and news about Saudi Arabia refusing to increase production[1]. What is the purpose of this article and why is it on the front page here? [0] https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/imports-and-exports.php https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-produc... [1] https://apnews.com/article/saudi-arabia-keeps-lid-on-oil-output-as-us-gas-prices-rise-e14e8c00d188a4110f73358402e1e595 https://apnews.com/article/saudi-arabia-keeps-lid-on-oil-out...
- audiometry 5y ago
  It seems to be a lame argument saying somehow high energy prices no longer affect US consumers. Nonsense. And it grossly simplifies trade flows of refined products and crude flow in and out of the USA.
  - spfzero 5y ago
    It said higher energy prices DO affect US consumers. >Higher fuel prices disadvantage consumers and energy-intensive industries, yes.
  - wolverine876 5y ago
    > It seems to be a lame argument saying somehow high energy prices no longer affect US consumers. From the article: Now, after the shale gas revolution of the last 15 years, the impact is more subtle. Higher fuel prices disadvantage consumers and energy-intensive industries, yes. But there is a counteracting surge in incomes for domestic energy producers and their workers.
    - zaroth 5y ago
      Higher fuel and energy costs are some of the worst kind of regressive taxes, because it’s a tax you can’t even avoid. Energy is the fundamental underpinning of modern society. Today a large part of that energy comes from oil, but not really for much longer. So maybe better late than never?
- schmichael 5y ago
  > It is short and lacking detail This, if you're not familiar, is Axios's entire value prop: short and sweet. Not saying it's good or bad, just pointing out that I would consider this article standard if not verbose by Axios's own standards.
  - jimmygrapes 5y ago
    I don't read it unless linked a story, but I do remember it popping into the scene with long form in depth journalism and interviews I hadn't seen elsewhere, with a style similar to The Intercept. I guess all good things come to an end.
    - wolverine876 5y ago
      Hmmm ... I'm pretty sure Axios's whole pitch from the beginning has been speed and succinctness.
      - jimmygrapes 5y ago
        You seem to be correct, at least according to Wikipedia. I may be confusing it with something else similarly named, or exaggerating how Axios on HBO got some exclusives? Not sure. As a side note, I wasn't aware of the following info (again from Wikipedia) but it kinda explains the OP article to me a little more: >In January 2017, Axios hired as an executive vice president Evan Ryan, the assistant secretary of state for educational and cultural affairs and a former staffer for Vice President Joe Biden.
        wolverine876 5y ago
        What does it explain about the OP? Are you saying it's biased in favor of the Biden administration? What part is biased? The article doesn't even depict the situation as necessarily positive. Do you have evidence that Ryan participated? What about other people at Axios? Connecting otherwise unrelated dots is the foundation of conspiracy theories, not fact, and (if Wikipedia is accurate) that was five years ago.
- pessimizer 5y ago
  > What is the purpose of this article and why is it on the front page here? Because 16 people upvoted it. The weird thing is that the submitter seems to have a ratio of 100:1 of submissions to comments. They might just have developed a habit of submitting every article they read that they find at all interesting.
  - throw0101a 5y ago
    > They might just have developed a habit of submitting every article they read that they find at all interesting. HN as cloud bookmarking service. :)
- sp332 5y ago
  The data in the article agrees with your sources. It says there was a surplus in 2020, and that use and production have been pretty balanced since then.
  - landemva 5y ago
    Surplus in 2020 became deficit again in 2021. https://dailyenergyinsider.com/news/29194-united-states-exported-more-petroleum-than-it-imported-in-2020-according-to-eia/?amp https://dailyenergyinsider.com/news/29194-united-states-expo...
- chubot 5y ago
  The chart links to the EIA article ... so that is the source, but I don't know how high quality it is.
- wegljhr 5y ago
crsv 5y ago
They’re citing oil consumption numbers during the pandemic which I’m sure will not be sustained.
- weatherlight 5y ago
  unless this is the new normal.
- jimmygrapes 5y ago
  Yeah that's the vibe I got. Kinda like claiming record job growth when it's just "people are coming out of lock downs and general fear and also after the economy was on the brink of collapse"
- MatteoFrigo 5y ago
  The production side is also unsustainable. Some large producers are committing not to increase production and instead pocket the higher prices. https://energynow.com/2022/02/pioneer-pledges-to-hold-u-s-shale-output-near-flat-in-2022/ https://energynow.com/2022/02/pioneer-pledges-to-hold-u-s-sh...
  - Thorrez 5y ago
    Well, good for the environment, right?
TrispusAttucks 5y ago
It was made this way by the previous administrations efforts. Then sustained by great reduction in energy usage. We'll see how this trends through 2022 but I'm not optimistic.
- chiefalchemist 5y ago
  Reduction in energy usage? Maybe. But the increase in production is mainly due to fracking.
- danielmarkbruce 5y ago
  It was made this way by the folks who figured out how to do fracking. Politics had little to do with it. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS2&f=M https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M...
  - koolba 5y ago
    Allowing or banning fracking is pure politics.
    - danielmarkbruce 5y ago
      By that reasoning everything is pure politics. Cars? Forget about inventing the internal combustion engine, because "allowing or banning the internal combustion engine is all politics". And so on.
      - deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
  - wolverine876 5y ago
    It was the American public: Fracking was developed in a federal government research program in the early 1980s, IIRC.
    - 5y ago
chiefalchemist 5y ago
> The impact on geopolitics extends to a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine. Disruptions to European energy supplies would have a less direct effect on the U.S. than they might have in an earlier era. Put another way, the USA now has less incentive to "keep the peace." Putin's drama and posturing, plus the USA being untethered...that's not a good combination.
- jimmygrapes 5y ago
  I don't actually expect any conflict there, but I also remember the old saw: "gas is up, polls are down? start a war!" I hope that joke doesn't apply. As Sting said, "Russians love their children too"
  - chiefalchemist 5y ago
    That is certainly a consideration. There's what Biden will do (in the context of his unflattering polling numbers). And then there's what Putin would like to see Biden do. If I were to wager I'd say currently Vlad is more than covering the spread.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
- tootie 5y ago
  It's the other way around. Russia is agitating because they can't support their regime with oil anymore. The US has no obligations in Ukraine but have working overtime to prevent escalation.
  - wolverine876 5y ago
    > The US has no obligations in Ukraine It depends on defining 'obligation'. The US doesn't have a treaty obligation to defend Ukraine but does have that obligation to NATO members, and a Russian attack on Ukraine threatens NATO members. Also, the US has a different kind of 'obligation' to democracy, peace, prosperity - all of which are not only essential in themselves, but essential to the peace and prosperity of Americans - and to the rules-based international order that provides those things. We don't want to return to the first half of the 20th century, with two major wars, but now with far more destructive power.
hammock 5y ago
Producing more oil than you consume does not, as the article claims, make you truly energy independent. The US will always have to import oil from other countries to meet its needs, because not all oil is the same, and the type of oil that the US produces is not the type that it needs. For a better understanding: https://www.api.org/news-policy-and-issues/blog/2018/06/14/why-the-us-must-import-and-export-oil https://www.api.org/news-policy-and-issues/blog/2018/06/14/w...
- ykevinator2 5y ago
  It's a stretch to say will always have to.
- XorNot 5y ago
  A better argument would be whether there are any restrictions at all that, during a world shortage, would prevent companies producing oil from exporting it to other parts of the world to the detriment of local US consumers. There aren't, so the US isn't independent on anything: the regular citizen will get priced out of the market regardless of their need the moment there's profit to be made elsewhere.
  - dariusj18 5y ago
    In an emergency situation the executive should step in and create emergency orders in preparation for Congress passing laws to deal with it.
  - radicaldreamer 5y ago
    Government can easily restrict international sales, just like they did for vaccines (and routinely do for encryption software/hardware and other goods).
  - philipkglass 5y ago
    The United States banned crude oil exports from the 1970s until 2015: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_Policy_and_Conservation_Act#Crude_oil_export_ban,_1977-2015 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_Policy_and_Conservation... https://ballotpedia.org/Crude_oil_export_ban https://ballotpedia.org/Crude_oil_export_ban It didn't seem to affect retail fuel prices very much either way.
handelaar 5y ago
I wonder if there might be some reason for that sudden 15-year low in oil consumption in 2020. It's a mystery, for sure.
anm89 5y ago
For how long? I've seen estimates claiming that at the rate we are depleting the major shale areas the new glut of shale wells will go into a steep production decline around 2024-26. I dont have all the data but from what I've heard this is pretty temporary.
- jandrese 5y ago
  I’m hoping the transition to electric vehicles will be in full swing by that point. While we use oil for more than passenger cars if the decline in demand could more or less match the reduced supply it would be ideal.
  - anm89 5y ago
    In two to four years? I'm sorry but that's not realistic. It will be bigger than it is now. But not 1000% bigger. Probably not 100% bigger.
    - JaakkoP 5y ago
      Almost certainly more than 100% bigger in two to four years, if Gartber predicts 50% growth for 2022-2021 alone. And many project more. What’s more, the growth will likely pick up each year as more and better EVs become available, and more people start considering them as a real alternative.
      - shortstuffsushi 5y ago
        What percentage of consumers purchase new cars on a < 5 year basis? People who take out leases do, so there could be an uptick of these folks getting into EVs, but the majority of existing car owners aren't likely to hop over just to get on the EV train, I don't think, and the second hand car market is / will continue to be massive. I can't see a significant decline in gas vehicles for a decade or better, probably likely two before a significant portion of gas vehicles are off the road.
aksss 5y ago
Curiously unmentioned is the precipitous fall in domestic oil production in 2021. Another headline would be "US barely hangs on to coveted net exporter status as production falls dramatically." It should be noted that the price of oil has only been increasing in 2021. We were somewhere around $60 in Feb of last year, now we're over $90 [0]. When oil prices go up, expensive development processes become more viable. So this drop in production is purely domestic policy, not economics. That makes the article seem all the more out of touch to be published now, aside from making dumb statements about price of oil not impacting us as much. Throw in a token nod to the questionable Ukraine crisis. Yeah, this article seems like someone from the White House called in a favor. [0] https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/ https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/
jmpman 5y ago
Can someone explain why during the start of Covid lockdowns, gasoline prices didn’t drop to $1.00/gallon? There was no demand, and plenty of supply. The simple supply/demand curve of my high school economics memory, seems to imply prices should have taken a dive to virtually zero. Sure they went down, but nowhere near what the models I’d learned would predict. Just a rant that lit up inside my brain every time I filled up during that time when the streets were as empty as any zombie movie.
- LeoPanthera 5y ago
  (This is a guess, but) I suspect there is a base rate of inelastic demand which either never changes or changes very slowly. This keeps the price from falling significantly.
- Dork1234 5y ago
  Transportation and Taxes alone would prevent it getting that low. https://gaspricesexplained.com/#/?section=whatconsumers-are-paying-for-at-the-pump https://gaspricesexplained.com/#/?section=whatconsumers-are-... Refiners can also switch to diesel and/or heating oil which appears to be in just as high as demand as before Covid.
  - tenpies 5y ago
    I would add that taxes are now a higher proportion of fuel costs - and will probably continue to become so as more carbon and emissions taxes are passed. Of course, this is assuming oil prices don't go parabolic, which they may given our self-destructive energy policies. Wikimedia has an awesome chart with 2022 data for each US state's tax burden on gas prices for example: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e9/Gasoline_Diesel_Taxes.webp https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e9/Gasoline...
- friedturkey 5y ago
  I think we've reached a point where prices don't really drop on anything within established industries even when it's expected that they should, unless they're at serious risk of being replaced by a newer, better product. My country had a massive glut of milk overproduction this year. Well beyond what the country could drink, use in other products, or even export. Know what happened? Some companies reduced milk container sizes from 1000mL to 900mL and prices went up.
wegljhr 5y ago
[flagged]
troymc 5y ago
This article implies that all energy in the US, including electricity, comes from petroleum, but in the US, very little electricity comes from petroleum-based sources. It comes mostly from burning natural gas, burning coal, nuclear fission, wind, solar, and hydro dams. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/electricity.php https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/electricity.php
cc101 5y ago
I have scanned the comments, but I have not read the article. The title begs an imponderable issue. There is energy used in making every thing we import and in every thing we export. This invisible energy can be shipped back and forth multiple times. How do you add all that up to achieve an answer?
throwaway5486nv 5y ago
What will happen to middle east as the world's oil demand continue to decrease?
- ncmncm 5y ago
  Saudi oil marginal production cost is still the lowest in the world. The main effect will be political instability as the revenue used to keep the population satisfied falls off. The Saudis could set up solar and start synthesizing anhydrous ammonia to sell to higher latitudes in winter. Marginal production cost would go even lower, as it would not need refining. But they would face competition from west Africa.
wegljlkh 5y ago
[flagged]
wegljlkh 5y ago
Dunban4 5y ago
Notice that the article conveniently leaves out '21 and '22. It also doesn't include natural gas
shibooya 5y ago
I think this is all best taken with a pinch of salt... if oil prices rise on geo-political tensions or on OPEC cutting supply, it tends to spike for all grades of oil to some degree. That implies that the price of shale will also spike - and hence you are not truly insulated from 'external' events even if you are self sufficient.
steve76 5y ago
Gollapalli 5y ago
We WERE energy independent. The current administration cut production soon after taking power. The previous administration had expanded domestic oil production resulting in the energy independence of 2020 mentioned in the article. Why they are talking about 2020-2021 energy independence as though it applies to the current situation, I do not understand. I expect that there is some truth to the sentiments expressed by other commenters that this article is, in fact, tendentious in its aims.
- shortstuffsushi 5y ago
  Yeah, I'm confused about this as well. Two years ago, this claim saying "we're now independent" would make sense, but now it almost feels like we could say the reverse; we've become less independent (less production, more demand) - situations like the current Ukraine problem could cause more trouble, not less
- dillondoyle 5y ago
  This isn't true. If you can prove me wrong I'd be happy to read about why. It sounds like we're talking about leases. talking about future production, the Biden admin allowed more federal lands leasing in their first year than trump did. [1] They paused new leases at the start but they're back. They are trying to get more money from lease sales but idk where that's at. And with high covid prices the admin asked companies to increase production back to pre covid levels faster. Total us production isn't back to pre covid levels yet [2], but all the reporting I've raid says it's because of covid, manic swings in demand and pricing, share price volatility, pressure to reign in spending, and push for renewables [3] Personally, we do need to get strict with leases. This transition period is going to be painful hard to balance such long term assets (like decades to build and get roi from new large oil development) with a transition that we need to happen as fast as possible. Going to hurt but could hurt less if we can spend the few T needed to beef up renewables, get new cars on road, replace electric stoves, etc. [1] https://biologicaldiversity.org/w/news/press-releases/new-data-biden-slays-trumps-first-year-drilling-permitting-by-34-2022-01-21/ https://biologicaldiversity.org/w/news/press-releases/new-da... [2] https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS2&f=M https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M... [3] https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/10/energy/oil-gas-prices-joe-biden/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/10/energy/oil-gas-prices-joe-bid...
warlog 5y ago
Sigh. 1. A barrel of oil isn't just gas.. About half is for bunker oil, diesel and kerosene that runs boats, trucks and jets. That need isn't going away no matter how many batteries you make. The rest (40-50%) of the barrel is a waste stream that can be used as light gasoline, plastics and chemicals. We will always have the second half because we always need the first half. 2. As others have mentioned, all oil is not equal. Shale and tar sands (tight oil) are not producing the heavy cuts/blends that we require for bunker oil, diesel and aircraft. US will need to balance export of shale based (or nat gas) energy with import of heavier grades of oil. Probably always. This isn't "independence"..it's codependence at best, and it will require the world burning gas for cars. How's your CO2? 3. Peak oil (conventional) was 2005, and then the shale oil financial stunt (thanks negative interest rates!!) took us to Nov 2018 when -- *Before covid* peak oil, and energy happened. We're on the downslope of production without massive "demand destruction". 4. The energy price predicament is that below $80/barrel, shale and tight producers can't make money (and there will be no further investment) and above $80 and the rest of the economy gets killed. None of these ideas are mine. All are easily goog'd.
- jillesvangurp 5y ago
  Regarding bunker oil, there are ships under construction that will use hydrogen instead of bunker oil. Also interesting is that while large ships burn bunker oil, they do so to power a generator that powers an electrical engine. This is true for modern oil tankers and large container ships. So, it's not that inevitable that ships will continue to use bunker oil forever. Also, there is a company in the US already selling synthetic fuels to airline companies. I think there was a plane that recently flew with one engine burning that stuff. And finally, battery electric trucks of basically all sizes are now being produced and are shipping in small volumes. Diesel demand is on a slow decline. There is of course some debate on whether hydrogen will play a role in that. IMHO, the early signs are that it is basically not going to be a big role for at least trucking. It works, but has bout 4x the energy cost. Which is not a great value proposition when batteries basically get the job done already. The challenge with oil is not so much the price but the fact that it keeps changing wildly unpredictably and that these swings seem to be getting more common. Those wilds swings are very damaging to industries that depend on those prices either being high (like shale oil) or low (any company that buys oil or gas in large quantities). Prices can be abnormally high or low for months/years on end if e.g. the Saudis or the Russians decide to flood the market with oil or decide to limit supply when that suits them. The US is only energy independent when prices are very high. And as you note, even then it needs to import oil because not all oil is alike. High prices are very damaging to economies since you get things like inflation getting out of control when people suddenly have to pay a premium to heat their houses, drive their cars, or have stuff trucked around. I'm including natural gas here as it seems the prices for both oil and gas seem to be suffering from this. And of course it is an important thing that shale oil drilling produces in large quantities as well. And we are seeing quite a bit of inflation lately because of the high prices. These price swings will drive demand destruction over time and far more rapidly than some people in the industry seem to hope/think. People will want to isolate themselves from supply and pricing issues. That's already happening. People put solar and batteries in their home because they can and to shield themselves from extortion level pricing and blackouts. The higher the prices, the more you will see people try to work around that. The transport section will largely not be dependent on oil or gas by mid this century. Road traffic probably by the end of next decade. With about half new cars being electric by the end of this decade. That's just extrapolating from growth plans of various manufacturers. At this pace, they'll hit 50% of the market in about 8-10 years. A 50% drop in demand is going to be tough if you have investments in companies that 1) rely on high oil prices and 2) depend on things like gasoline and diesel sales to continue to be a thing that economies spend a lot of money on. Most investors are already voting with their feet because they know this is happening.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
fuoqi 5y ago
Energy independent? Suuuure... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-24/russia-oil-demand-hits-record-high-in-u-s-amid-rising-tensions https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-24/russia-oi...
sydthrowaway 5y ago
How far are we from no-oil?
alophawen 5y ago
lol

144 points by lxm 5y ago

This is a weird article. It is short and lacking detail, does not link any sources, and presents its data as if it's a first (it is not[0]). It reads, to be honest, as propaganda, especially considering the current rise in consumer prices for fuel and news about Saudi Arabia refusing to increase production[1]. What is the purpose of this article and why is it on the front page here? [0] https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/imports-and-exports.php https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-produc... [1] https://apnews.com/article/saudi-arabia-keeps-lid-on-oil-output-as-us-gas-prices-rise-e14e8c00d188a4110f73358402e1e595 https://apnews.com/article/saudi-arabia-keeps-lid-on-oil-out...

audiometry 5y ago
It seems to be a lame argument saying somehow high energy prices no longer affect US consumers. Nonsense. And it grossly simplifies trade flows of refined products and crude flow in and out of the USA.
- spfzero 5y ago
  It said higher energy prices DO affect US consumers. >Higher fuel prices disadvantage consumers and energy-intensive industries, yes.
- wolverine876 5y ago
  > It seems to be a lame argument saying somehow high energy prices no longer affect US consumers. From the article: Now, after the shale gas revolution of the last 15 years, the impact is more subtle. Higher fuel prices disadvantage consumers and energy-intensive industries, yes. But there is a counteracting surge in incomes for domestic energy producers and their workers.
  - zaroth 5y ago
    Higher fuel and energy costs are some of the worst kind of regressive taxes, because it’s a tax you can’t even avoid. Energy is the fundamental underpinning of modern society. Today a large part of that energy comes from oil, but not really for much longer. So maybe better late than never?
schmichael 5y ago
> It is short and lacking detail This, if you're not familiar, is Axios's entire value prop: short and sweet. Not saying it's good or bad, just pointing out that I would consider this article standard if not verbose by Axios's own standards.
- jimmygrapes 5y ago
  I don't read it unless linked a story, but I do remember it popping into the scene with long form in depth journalism and interviews I hadn't seen elsewhere, with a style similar to The Intercept. I guess all good things come to an end.
  - wolverine876 5y ago
    Hmmm ... I'm pretty sure Axios's whole pitch from the beginning has been speed and succinctness.
    - jimmygrapes 5y ago
      You seem to be correct, at least according to Wikipedia. I may be confusing it with something else similarly named, or exaggerating how Axios on HBO got some exclusives? Not sure. As a side note, I wasn't aware of the following info (again from Wikipedia) but it kinda explains the OP article to me a little more: >In January 2017, Axios hired as an executive vice president Evan Ryan, the assistant secretary of state for educational and cultural affairs and a former staffer for Vice President Joe Biden.
      - wolverine876 5y ago
        What does it explain about the OP? Are you saying it's biased in favor of the Biden administration? What part is biased? The article doesn't even depict the situation as necessarily positive. Do you have evidence that Ryan participated? What about other people at Axios? Connecting otherwise unrelated dots is the foundation of conspiracy theories, not fact, and (if Wikipedia is accurate) that was five years ago.
pessimizer 5y ago
> What is the purpose of this article and why is it on the front page here? Because 16 people upvoted it. The weird thing is that the submitter seems to have a ratio of 100:1 of submissions to comments. They might just have developed a habit of submitting every article they read that they find at all interesting.
- throw0101a 5y ago
  > They might just have developed a habit of submitting every article they read that they find at all interesting. HN as cloud bookmarking service. :)
sp332 5y ago
The data in the article agrees with your sources. It says there was a surplus in 2020, and that use and production have been pretty balanced since then.
- landemva 5y ago
  Surplus in 2020 became deficit again in 2021. https://dailyenergyinsider.com/news/29194-united-states-exported-more-petroleum-than-it-imported-in-2020-according-to-eia/?amp https://dailyenergyinsider.com/news/29194-united-states-expo...
chubot 5y ago
The chart links to the EIA article ... so that is the source, but I don't know how high quality it is.
wegljhr 5y ago

crsv 5y ago

They’re citing oil consumption numbers during the pandemic which I’m sure will not be sustained.

weatherlight 5y ago
unless this is the new normal.
jimmygrapes 5y ago
Yeah that's the vibe I got. Kinda like claiming record job growth when it's just "people are coming out of lock downs and general fear and also after the economy was on the brink of collapse"
MatteoFrigo 5y ago
The production side is also unsustainable. Some large producers are committing not to increase production and instead pocket the higher prices. https://energynow.com/2022/02/pioneer-pledges-to-hold-u-s-shale-output-near-flat-in-2022/ https://energynow.com/2022/02/pioneer-pledges-to-hold-u-s-sh...
- Thorrez 5y ago
  Well, good for the environment, right?

TrispusAttucks 5y ago

It was made this way by the previous administrations efforts. Then sustained by great reduction in energy usage. We'll see how this trends through 2022 but I'm not optimistic.

chiefalchemist 5y ago
Reduction in energy usage? Maybe. But the increase in production is mainly due to fracking.
danielmarkbruce 5y ago
It was made this way by the folks who figured out how to do fracking. Politics had little to do with it. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS2&f=M https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M...
- koolba 5y ago
  Allowing or banning fracking is pure politics.
  - danielmarkbruce 5y ago
    By that reasoning everything is pure politics. Cars? Forget about inventing the internal combustion engine, because "allowing or banning the internal combustion engine is all politics". And so on.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
- wolverine876 5y ago
  It was the American public: Fracking was developed in a federal government research program in the early 1980s, IIRC.
  - 5y ago

chiefalchemist 5y ago

> The impact on geopolitics extends to a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine. Disruptions to European energy supplies would have a less direct effect on the U.S. than they might have in an earlier era. Put another way, the USA now has less incentive to "keep the peace." Putin's drama and posturing, plus the USA being untethered...that's not a good combination.

jimmygrapes 5y ago
I don't actually expect any conflict there, but I also remember the old saw: "gas is up, polls are down? start a war!" I hope that joke doesn't apply. As Sting said, "Russians love their children too"
- chiefalchemist 5y ago
  That is certainly a consideration. There's what Biden will do (in the context of his unflattering polling numbers). And then there's what Putin would like to see Biden do. If I were to wager I'd say currently Vlad is more than covering the spread.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
tootie 5y ago
It's the other way around. Russia is agitating because they can't support their regime with oil anymore. The US has no obligations in Ukraine but have working overtime to prevent escalation.
- wolverine876 5y ago
  > The US has no obligations in Ukraine It depends on defining 'obligation'. The US doesn't have a treaty obligation to defend Ukraine but does have that obligation to NATO members, and a Russian attack on Ukraine threatens NATO members. Also, the US has a different kind of 'obligation' to democracy, peace, prosperity - all of which are not only essential in themselves, but essential to the peace and prosperity of Americans - and to the rules-based international order that provides those things. We don't want to return to the first half of the 20th century, with two major wars, but now with far more destructive power.

hammock 5y ago

Producing more oil than you consume does not, as the article claims, make you truly energy independent. The US will always have to import oil from other countries to meet its needs, because not all oil is the same, and the type of oil that the US produces is not the type that it needs. For a better understanding: https://www.api.org/news-policy-and-issues/blog/2018/06/14/why-the-us-must-import-and-export-oil https://www.api.org/news-policy-and-issues/blog/2018/06/14/w...

ykevinator2 5y ago
It's a stretch to say will always have to.
XorNot 5y ago
A better argument would be whether there are any restrictions at all that, during a world shortage, would prevent companies producing oil from exporting it to other parts of the world to the detriment of local US consumers. There aren't, so the US isn't independent on anything: the regular citizen will get priced out of the market regardless of their need the moment there's profit to be made elsewhere.
- dariusj18 5y ago
  In an emergency situation the executive should step in and create emergency orders in preparation for Congress passing laws to deal with it.
- radicaldreamer 5y ago
  Government can easily restrict international sales, just like they did for vaccines (and routinely do for encryption software/hardware and other goods).
- philipkglass 5y ago
  The United States banned crude oil exports from the 1970s until 2015: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_Policy_and_Conservation_Act#Crude_oil_export_ban,_1977-2015 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_Policy_and_Conservation... https://ballotpedia.org/Crude_oil_export_ban https://ballotpedia.org/Crude_oil_export_ban It didn't seem to affect retail fuel prices very much either way.

handelaar 5y ago

I wonder if there might be some reason for that sudden 15-year low in oil consumption in 2020. It's a mystery, for sure.

anm89 5y ago

For how long? I've seen estimates claiming that at the rate we are depleting the major shale areas the new glut of shale wells will go into a steep production decline around 2024-26. I dont have all the data but from what I've heard this is pretty temporary.

jandrese 5y ago
I’m hoping the transition to electric vehicles will be in full swing by that point. While we use oil for more than passenger cars if the decline in demand could more or less match the reduced supply it would be ideal.
- anm89 5y ago
  In two to four years? I'm sorry but that's not realistic. It will be bigger than it is now. But not 1000% bigger. Probably not 100% bigger.
  - JaakkoP 5y ago
    Almost certainly more than 100% bigger in two to four years, if Gartber predicts 50% growth for 2022-2021 alone. And many project more. What’s more, the growth will likely pick up each year as more and better EVs become available, and more people start considering them as a real alternative.
    - shortstuffsushi 5y ago
      What percentage of consumers purchase new cars on a < 5 year basis? People who take out leases do, so there could be an uptick of these folks getting into EVs, but the majority of existing car owners aren't likely to hop over just to get on the EV train, I don't think, and the second hand car market is / will continue to be massive. I can't see a significant decline in gas vehicles for a decade or better, probably likely two before a significant portion of gas vehicles are off the road.

aksss 5y ago

Curiously unmentioned is the precipitous fall in domestic oil production in 2021. Another headline would be "US barely hangs on to coveted net exporter status as production falls dramatically." It should be noted that the price of oil has only been increasing in 2021. We were somewhere around $60 in Feb of last year, now we're over $90 [0]. When oil prices go up, expensive development processes become more viable. So this drop in production is purely domestic policy, not economics. That makes the article seem all the more out of touch to be published now, aside from making dumb statements about price of oil not impacting us as much. Throw in a token nod to the questionable Ukraine crisis. Yeah, this article seems like someone from the White House called in a favor. [0] https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/ https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/

jmpman 5y ago

Can someone explain why during the start of Covid lockdowns, gasoline prices didn’t drop to $1.00/gallon? There was no demand, and plenty of supply. The simple supply/demand curve of my high school economics memory, seems to imply prices should have taken a dive to virtually zero. Sure they went down, but nowhere near what the models I’d learned would predict. Just a rant that lit up inside my brain every time I filled up during that time when the streets were as empty as any zombie movie.

LeoPanthera 5y ago
(This is a guess, but) I suspect there is a base rate of inelastic demand which either never changes or changes very slowly. This keeps the price from falling significantly.
Dork1234 5y ago
Transportation and Taxes alone would prevent it getting that low. https://gaspricesexplained.com/#/?section=whatconsumers-are-paying-for-at-the-pump https://gaspricesexplained.com/#/?section=whatconsumers-are-... Refiners can also switch to diesel and/or heating oil which appears to be in just as high as demand as before Covid.
- tenpies 5y ago
  I would add that taxes are now a higher proportion of fuel costs - and will probably continue to become so as more carbon and emissions taxes are passed. Of course, this is assuming oil prices don't go parabolic, which they may given our self-destructive energy policies. Wikimedia has an awesome chart with 2022 data for each US state's tax burden on gas prices for example: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e9/Gasoline_Diesel_Taxes.webp https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e9/Gasoline...
friedturkey 5y ago
I think we've reached a point where prices don't really drop on anything within established industries even when it's expected that they should, unless they're at serious risk of being replaced by a newer, better product. My country had a massive glut of milk overproduction this year. Well beyond what the country could drink, use in other products, or even export. Know what happened? Some companies reduced milk container sizes from 1000mL to 900mL and prices went up.

wegljhr 5y ago

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troymc 5y ago

This article implies that all energy in the US, including electricity, comes from petroleum, but in the US, very little electricity comes from petroleum-based sources. It comes mostly from burning natural gas, burning coal, nuclear fission, wind, solar, and hydro dams. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/electricity.php https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/electricity.php

cc101 5y ago

I have scanned the comments, but I have not read the article. The title begs an imponderable issue. There is energy used in making every thing we import and in every thing we export. This invisible energy can be shipped back and forth multiple times. How do you add all that up to achieve an answer?

throwaway5486nv 5y ago

What will happen to middle east as the world's oil demand continue to decrease?

ncmncm 5y ago
Saudi oil marginal production cost is still the lowest in the world. The main effect will be political instability as the revenue used to keep the population satisfied falls off. The Saudis could set up solar and start synthesizing anhydrous ammonia to sell to higher latitudes in winter. Marginal production cost would go even lower, as it would not need refining. But they would face competition from west Africa.

wegljlkh 5y ago

[flagged]

wegljlkh 5y ago

Dunban4 5y ago

Notice that the article conveniently leaves out '21 and '22. It also doesn't include natural gas

shibooya 5y ago

I think this is all best taken with a pinch of salt... if oil prices rise on geo-political tensions or on OPEC cutting supply, it tends to spike for all grades of oil to some degree. That implies that the price of shale will also spike - and hence you are not truly insulated from 'external' events even if you are self sufficient.

steve76 5y ago

Gollapalli 5y ago

We WERE energy independent. The current administration cut production soon after taking power. The previous administration had expanded domestic oil production resulting in the energy independence of 2020 mentioned in the article. Why they are talking about 2020-2021 energy independence as though it applies to the current situation, I do not understand. I expect that there is some truth to the sentiments expressed by other commenters that this article is, in fact, tendentious in its aims.

shortstuffsushi 5y ago
Yeah, I'm confused about this as well. Two years ago, this claim saying "we're now independent" would make sense, but now it almost feels like we could say the reverse; we've become less independent (less production, more demand) - situations like the current Ukraine problem could cause more trouble, not less
dillondoyle 5y ago
This isn't true. If you can prove me wrong I'd be happy to read about why. It sounds like we're talking about leases. talking about future production, the Biden admin allowed more federal lands leasing in their first year than trump did. [1] They paused new leases at the start but they're back. They are trying to get more money from lease sales but idk where that's at. And with high covid prices the admin asked companies to increase production back to pre covid levels faster. Total us production isn't back to pre covid levels yet [2], but all the reporting I've raid says it's because of covid, manic swings in demand and pricing, share price volatility, pressure to reign in spending, and push for renewables [3] Personally, we do need to get strict with leases. This transition period is going to be painful hard to balance such long term assets (like decades to build and get roi from new large oil development) with a transition that we need to happen as fast as possible. Going to hurt but could hurt less if we can spend the few T needed to beef up renewables, get new cars on road, replace electric stoves, etc. [1] https://biologicaldiversity.org/w/news/press-releases/new-data-biden-slays-trumps-first-year-drilling-permitting-by-34-2022-01-21/ https://biologicaldiversity.org/w/news/press-releases/new-da... [2] https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS2&f=M https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M... [3] https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/10/energy/oil-gas-prices-joe-biden/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/10/energy/oil-gas-prices-joe-bid...

warlog 5y ago

Sigh. 1. A barrel of oil isn't just gas.. About half is for bunker oil, diesel and kerosene that runs boats, trucks and jets. That need isn't going away no matter how many batteries you make. The rest (40-50%) of the barrel is a waste stream that can be used as light gasoline, plastics and chemicals. We will always have the second half because we always need the first half. 2. As others have mentioned, all oil is not equal. Shale and tar sands (tight oil) are not producing the heavy cuts/blends that we require for bunker oil, diesel and aircraft. US will need to balance export of shale based (or nat gas) energy with import of heavier grades of oil. Probably always. This isn't "independence"..it's codependence at best, and it will require the world burning gas for cars. How's your CO2? 3. Peak oil (conventional) was 2005, and then the shale oil financial stunt (thanks negative interest rates!!) took us to Nov 2018 when -- *Before covid* peak oil, and energy happened. We're on the downslope of production without massive "demand destruction". 4. The energy price predicament is that below $80/barrel, shale and tight producers can't make money (and there will be no further investment) and above $80 and the rest of the economy gets killed. None of these ideas are mine. All are easily goog'd.

jillesvangurp 5y ago
Regarding bunker oil, there are ships under construction that will use hydrogen instead of bunker oil. Also interesting is that while large ships burn bunker oil, they do so to power a generator that powers an electrical engine. This is true for modern oil tankers and large container ships. So, it's not that inevitable that ships will continue to use bunker oil forever. Also, there is a company in the US already selling synthetic fuels to airline companies. I think there was a plane that recently flew with one engine burning that stuff. And finally, battery electric trucks of basically all sizes are now being produced and are shipping in small volumes. Diesel demand is on a slow decline. There is of course some debate on whether hydrogen will play a role in that. IMHO, the early signs are that it is basically not going to be a big role for at least trucking. It works, but has bout 4x the energy cost. Which is not a great value proposition when batteries basically get the job done already. The challenge with oil is not so much the price but the fact that it keeps changing wildly unpredictably and that these swings seem to be getting more common. Those wilds swings are very damaging to industries that depend on those prices either being high (like shale oil) or low (any company that buys oil or gas in large quantities). Prices can be abnormally high or low for months/years on end if e.g. the Saudis or the Russians decide to flood the market with oil or decide to limit supply when that suits them. The US is only energy independent when prices are very high. And as you note, even then it needs to import oil because not all oil is alike. High prices are very damaging to economies since you get things like inflation getting out of control when people suddenly have to pay a premium to heat their houses, drive their cars, or have stuff trucked around. I'm including natural gas here as it seems the prices for both oil and gas seem to be suffering from this. And of course it is an important thing that shale oil drilling produces in large quantities as well. And we are seeing quite a bit of inflation lately because of the high prices. These price swings will drive demand destruction over time and far more rapidly than some people in the industry seem to hope/think. People will want to isolate themselves from supply and pricing issues. That's already happening. People put solar and batteries in their home because they can and to shield themselves from extortion level pricing and blackouts. The higher the prices, the more you will see people try to work around that. The transport section will largely not be dependent on oil or gas by mid this century. Road traffic probably by the end of next decade. With about half new cars being electric by the end of this decade. That's just extrapolating from growth plans of various manufacturers. At this pace, they'll hit 50% of the market in about 8-10 years. A 50% drop in demand is going to be tough if you have investments in companies that 1) rely on high oil prices and 2) depend on things like gasoline and diesel sales to continue to be a thing that economies spend a lot of money on. Most investors are already voting with their feet because they know this is happening.

deleted 5y ago

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fuoqi 5y ago

Energy independent? Suuuure... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-24/russia-oil-demand-hits-record-high-in-u-s-amid-rising-tensions https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-24/russia-oi...

sydthrowaway 5y ago

How far are we from no-oil?

alophawen 5y ago

lol