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Because interest rates went down in those countries as well? We're only just coming off the lowest rates ever in the UK. The Euro hasn't existed for long but re

Because interest rates went down in those countries as well? We're only just coming off the lowest rates ever in the UK. The Euro hasn't existed for long but record lows there too. Oz as well.

arcticbull 5y ago
Why hasn't the same thing happened in Japan, which has tripled its money supply since 1990? House prices (and the price of everything else) has remained dead-ass flat. The difference is the have federal zoning rules that allow the supply of houses to meet the demand of houses.
- adam_arthur 5y ago
  Japan has a declining population. Residential real estate inevitably declines with this demographic trajectory. More housing units per person. Also Japan did not have a lot of nimby mentality blocking new housing, to my knowledge Lower rates offsets the price reduction to a certain extent.
  - CountSessine 5y ago
    Japan has a declining population. Residential real estate inevitably declines with this demographic trajectory. The Kansai region has an increasing population and real estate prices are still in decline or stable. Also Japan did not have a lot of nimby mentality blocking new housing, to my knowledge Yes, they did - prior to 2001 when the national government took zoning authority away from municipalities.
    - adam_arthur 5y ago
      FRED shows housing prices in aggregate rising in Japan https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QJPN628BIS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QJPN628BIS If a growing region is declining, I would expect building to be outpacing growth, or a cultural trend away from wanting to own (reduction in demand for purchasing despite growing population)
      - arcticbull 5y ago
        All that would mean is its a market where supply >= demand. The weights on the scale aren't as relevant, IMO.
- rcpt 5y ago
  Japan price to income ratio is bad but that speaks more to horrifically low wages. They've also been more aggressive about taxing real estate investment (they leaned their lesson in the 80s) and their zoning laws aren't captured by local busybodies.
padobson 5y ago
It's also worth mentioning that every developed nation has a heavy interest in the value of the dollar, because of trade with the US, petrodollars, etc.

Because interest rates went down in those countries as well? We're only just coming off the lowest rates ever in the UK. The Euro hasn't existed for long but record lows there too. Oz as well.

arcticbull 5y ago

Why hasn't the same thing happened in Japan, which has tripled its money supply since 1990? House prices (and the price of everything else) has remained dead-ass flat. The difference is the have federal zoning rules that allow the supply of houses to meet the demand of houses.

adam_arthur 5y ago
Japan has a declining population. Residential real estate inevitably declines with this demographic trajectory. More housing units per person. Also Japan did not have a lot of nimby mentality blocking new housing, to my knowledge Lower rates offsets the price reduction to a certain extent.
- CountSessine 5y ago
  Japan has a declining population. Residential real estate inevitably declines with this demographic trajectory. The Kansai region has an increasing population and real estate prices are still in decline or stable. Also Japan did not have a lot of nimby mentality blocking new housing, to my knowledge Yes, they did - prior to 2001 when the national government took zoning authority away from municipalities.
  - adam_arthur 5y ago
    FRED shows housing prices in aggregate rising in Japan https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QJPN628BIS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QJPN628BIS If a growing region is declining, I would expect building to be outpacing growth, or a cultural trend away from wanting to own (reduction in demand for purchasing despite growing population)
    - arcticbull 5y ago
      All that would mean is its a market where supply >= demand. The weights on the scale aren't as relevant, IMO.
rcpt 5y ago
Japan price to income ratio is bad but that speaks more to horrifically low wages. They've also been more aggressive about taxing real estate investment (they leaned their lesson in the 80s) and their zoning laws aren't captured by local busybodies.

padobson 5y ago

It's also worth mentioning that every developed nation has a heavy interest in the value of the dollar, because of trade with the US, petrodollars, etc.