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I think a problem with statistical deaths is that deaths can be double counted. If you did a meta-study and added up all the claimed deaths, wouldn't there be m

by yosito 5y ago

I think a problem with statistical deaths is that deaths can be double counted. If you did a meta-study and added up all the claimed deaths, wouldn't there be more statistical deaths than actual deaths? I also suspect that it's fairly likely that statistical deaths are based on comparing actual deaths to a hypothetical model in which the statistical cause of death is removed, but if the assumptions of the model are wrong, the statistical deaths it implies will also be wrong, even by orders of magnitude. How do we prove that the models make valid assumptions?

throwaway0a5e 5y ago
> think a problem with statistical deaths is that deaths can be double counted. Anyone worth a crap uses some sort of time based metric for loss of life. Wheezing into the grave at 80 instead of 81 is very different than dropping dead a 20 and these sorts of metrics are meant to reflect that. But those metrics don't get you big numbers with lots of digits in front of the decimal that get your article publishes, posted on HN and then clicked on in droves. The people doing the primary research often are aiming for accuracy but they are done a disservice by shortsighted people optimizing for a few extra cents of add revenue or a few more upvotes.
- i_love_limes 5y ago
  So, there are quite a few well known metrics for this in the public health world * Years of Life Lost (YLL) * Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY) * Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALY) They are calculated in an interesting way that is open for arguing and interpretation, but it provides a good baseline for the ability to compare them. As for the double counting, this is in fact a real problem, as a lot of health problems are interlinked, and having multiple health problems have a multiplying affect on health in general.
  - verdverm 5y ago
    This would have been a useful comment two years ago as well. Perhaps that it is not consistently used or applied is a problem?
    - throwaway0a5e 5y ago
      There were plenty of comments like this 2yr ago. They were gray and at the bottom so few took notice and eventually people stopped making them.
      - verdverm 5y ago
        Censorship is certainly fuzzy, maybe not so warm though it makes some feel that way?
    - pjc50 5y ago
      It seems to be a constant truism, and yes it's not consistently applied, (e.g war on drugs), but what are you suggesting here? Fairly sure by any reasonable measure of QUALY, COVID has been a bigger problem than any other public health crisis since AIDS.
      - verdverm 5y ago
        Even mental health? Opioids? Malnourishment and starvation? Are we only concerned with first world countries or counting only viruses? Leadership has handled all quite poorly it seems

by yosito 5y ago

throwaway0a5e 5y ago

> think a problem with statistical deaths is that deaths can be double counted. Anyone worth a crap uses some sort of time based metric for loss of life. Wheezing into the grave at 80 instead of 81 is very different than dropping dead a 20 and these sorts of metrics are meant to reflect that. But those metrics don't get you big numbers with lots of digits in front of the decimal that get your article publishes, posted on HN and then clicked on in droves. The people doing the primary research often are aiming for accuracy but they are done a disservice by shortsighted people optimizing for a few extra cents of add revenue or a few more upvotes.

i_love_limes 5y ago
So, there are quite a few well known metrics for this in the public health world * Years of Life Lost (YLL) * Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY) * Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALY) They are calculated in an interesting way that is open for arguing and interpretation, but it provides a good baseline for the ability to compare them. As for the double counting, this is in fact a real problem, as a lot of health problems are interlinked, and having multiple health problems have a multiplying affect on health in general.
- verdverm 5y ago
  This would have been a useful comment two years ago as well. Perhaps that it is not consistently used or applied is a problem?
  - throwaway0a5e 5y ago
    There were plenty of comments like this 2yr ago. They were gray and at the bottom so few took notice and eventually people stopped making them.
    - verdverm 5y ago
      Censorship is certainly fuzzy, maybe not so warm though it makes some feel that way?
  - pjc50 5y ago
    It seems to be a constant truism, and yes it's not consistently applied, (e.g war on drugs), but what are you suggesting here? Fairly sure by any reasonable measure of QUALY, COVID has been a bigger problem than any other public health crisis since AIDS.
    - verdverm 5y ago
      Even mental health? Opioids? Malnourishment and starvation? Are we only concerned with first world countries or counting only viruses? Leadership has handled all quite poorly it seems