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I’m not a crypto evangelist or anything, but what about alternatives like Pokémon cards which seem to have increased in value over the same period. There’s cur

I’m not a crypto evangelist or anything, but what about alternatives like Pokémon cards which seem to have increased in value over the same period. There’s currently a pump and dump on retro video games but I don’t think the same supply issues exist in Pokémon cards, but I’m not actively monitoring either market.

bena 5y ago
I think the difference between Beanie Babies and Pokemon/Magic cards is that trading cards hold some sort of utility outside of existence. There's a game behind the cards. And certain cards increase your chances of winning.
- samatman 5y ago
  This is an ex ante explanation, because it doesn't apply to (canceled) stamps, which are valuable and have been for a couple centuries.
  - bena 5y ago
    Well, yes. I was speaking to those items specifically. I don't think those cards are worth anything without the game. Not everything stems from the same reason.
jallen_dot_dev 5y ago
I think part of it is Pokemon and MTG are franchises with fan bases that exist outside of the desire to speculate on them as investments. So there will always be some fans who want to collect them just to have them, and not in the hope of selling to a greater fool. There is enduring demand. Beanie Babies, on the other hand, only existed for the purpose of get-rich-quick speculative bullshit. Ok, some kids played with them but I remember adults admonishing kids not to damage them and ruin their value. Is anyone actually nostalgic for these? I was 7-10 during the craze and I don't care about them, or know any peers who do. I mean, many of us weren't allowed to play with them. Another factor is scarcity. Many old cards were played with and damaged, so to have a first edition mint is actually rare. Whereas I'm sure there are (still) 100,000s mint condition Beanies in plastic storage bins in attics across the US. Finally, some of them were actually special and deservingly command a high price. Black Lotus was a really powerful card in addition to not being printed anymore, so there is another reason why it's sought after. It's so overpowered and game-breaking it won't be reintroduced. Patti the Platypus is not manufactured anymore, but there is nothing special about it anyway. And even if Beanie Babies were to become popular again, who is to say they won't just make another platypus.
pessimizer 5y ago
The difference is whether the market is ultimately driven by people who want to own things or who want to flip things. It's not black and white, but I bet <1% of people who bought Beanie Babies wanted to own Beanie Babies, and at least 50% of people who buy collectible Pokémon cards (or baseball cards, or comic books) actually want to own them. For the people who actually like Beanie Babies, the market for them isn't terrible, it's wonderful. They can afford everything they want. A market of flippers (like Beanie Babies) has to terminate at bagholders. While you can also lose your shirt in a collectors' market, it's because they're driven by the tastes and disposable income of those top-level collectors. They tend to shift from area to area based on particular books, articles, or even influential threads on message boards, and those markets move as a whole with wealth inequality and against interest rates, like fine art.
nouveaux 5y ago
"There’s currently a pump and dump on retro video games but I don’t think the same supply issues exist in Pokémon cards, but I’m not actively monitoring either market." Can you clarify what the pump and dump on retro video games looks like? To me, there seems to be real demand for retro video games. You can see the interest in various subreddits.
- hsbauauvhabzb 5y ago
  https://youtu.be/mKbuNwS-gaI https://youtu.be/mKbuNwS-gaI Sorry it’s a long watch. The tldr is that people involved in several high end sales, and game rating and auction houses are known business associates creating a conflict of interest and inflating sale prices artificially.
  - nouveaux 5y ago
    Thanks. This is very informative. I think growing collectible markets will always be susceptible to shill auctions.
    - hsbauauvhabzb 5y ago
      That guys channel is very cool, I’m not into speed running but the way he breaks down bugs and cheats is very interesting, he also occasionally stabs at stuff like this where his thoughts are very well thought out, I’ve never checked his sources but I assume they’re legitimate.

bena 5y ago

I think the difference between Beanie Babies and Pokemon/Magic cards is that trading cards hold some sort of utility outside of existence. There's a game behind the cards. And certain cards increase your chances of winning.

samatman 5y ago
This is an ex ante explanation, because it doesn't apply to (canceled) stamps, which are valuable and have been for a couple centuries.
- bena 5y ago
  Well, yes. I was speaking to those items specifically. I don't think those cards are worth anything without the game. Not everything stems from the same reason.

jallen_dot_dev 5y ago

I think part of it is Pokemon and MTG are franchises with fan bases that exist outside of the desire to speculate on them as investments. So there will always be some fans who want to collect them just to have them, and not in the hope of selling to a greater fool. There is enduring demand. Beanie Babies, on the other hand, only existed for the purpose of get-rich-quick speculative bullshit. Ok, some kids played with them but I remember adults admonishing kids not to damage them and ruin their value. Is anyone actually nostalgic for these? I was 7-10 during the craze and I don't care about them, or know any peers who do. I mean, many of us weren't allowed to play with them. Another factor is scarcity. Many old cards were played with and damaged, so to have a first edition mint is actually rare. Whereas I'm sure there are (still) 100,000s mint condition Beanies in plastic storage bins in attics across the US. Finally, some of them were actually special and deservingly command a high price. Black Lotus was a really powerful card in addition to not being printed anymore, so there is another reason why it's sought after. It's so overpowered and game-breaking it won't be reintroduced. Patti the Platypus is not manufactured anymore, but there is nothing special about it anyway. And even if Beanie Babies were to become popular again, who is to say they won't just make another platypus.

pessimizer 5y ago

The difference is whether the market is ultimately driven by people who want to own things or who want to flip things. It's not black and white, but I bet <1% of people who bought Beanie Babies wanted to own Beanie Babies, and at least 50% of people who buy collectible Pokémon cards (or baseball cards, or comic books) actually want to own them. For the people who actually like Beanie Babies, the market for them isn't terrible, it's wonderful. They can afford everything they want. A market of flippers (like Beanie Babies) has to terminate at bagholders. While you can also lose your shirt in a collectors' market, it's because they're driven by the tastes and disposable income of those top-level collectors. They tend to shift from area to area based on particular books, articles, or even influential threads on message boards, and those markets move as a whole with wealth inequality and against interest rates, like fine art.

nouveaux 5y ago

"There’s currently a pump and dump on retro video games but I don’t think the same supply issues exist in Pokémon cards, but I’m not actively monitoring either market." Can you clarify what the pump and dump on retro video games looks like? To me, there seems to be real demand for retro video games. You can see the interest in various subreddits.

hsbauauvhabzb 5y ago
https://youtu.be/mKbuNwS-gaI https://youtu.be/mKbuNwS-gaI Sorry it’s a long watch. The tldr is that people involved in several high end sales, and game rating and auction houses are known business associates creating a conflict of interest and inflating sale prices artificially.
- nouveaux 5y ago
  Thanks. This is very informative. I think growing collectible markets will always be susceptible to shill auctions.
  - hsbauauvhabzb 5y ago
    That guys channel is very cool, I’m not into speed running but the way he breaks down bugs and cheats is very interesting, he also occasionally stabs at stuff like this where his thoughts are very well thought out, I’ve never checked his sources but I assume they’re legitimate.