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> What happened to Arizona/Florida? Both are overpopulated now. I live in a peripheral suburb outside of Phoenix, AZ, first moving to the state in 2007. My ren

> What happened to Arizona/Florida? Both are overpopulated now. I live in a peripheral suburb outside of Phoenix, AZ, first moving to the state in 2007. My rent has gone up by $500 just in the last 6 months. There's talk among the locals that the water supply won't sustain this growth. Florida is in much worse shape from what I hear but I can't speak on specifics. I know the cost of living there is insane though. I'd pick Idaho or maybe rural CO if I were to do it over.

ethbr0 5y ago
South Florida is questionable from a water perspective. Northwest & northeast FL have a bit more flexibility, as they're at the end of river systems. Per local radio news interviewing a university professor of real estate economics this morning, current prices are retirement surge from other states (due to market run) + supply / demand imbalance (due to firms going bust post-2008 and consequently new starts lagging population growth for years). Fundamentally, Florida has always been linked to CA & NY via retirement, as FL prices are defined by what you could sell real estate out of state for (e.g. after kids move out).
- WaitWaitWha 5y ago
  > South Florida is questionable from a water perspective Are you referring to fresh water? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floridan_aquifer https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floridan_aquifer
  - ethbr0 5y ago
    The problem for Miami, as I understand it, is that the permeability and depth of the upper aquifer is pretty delicately balanced with sea level. Higher sea level (even a smidge) results in increased saltwater infiltration into the freshwater aquifers they're drawing from. Which is a problem when you're Miami-sized and growing population. I think Tampa / Orlando, and certainly Jacksonville and Pensacola, have more favorable geology and surface water.
    - autoexec 5y ago
      Between sea level rise and worsening storms I think I'd put off making long term investments in a most coastal areas, but presumably folks retiring won't live long enough to see the worst of what's coming. I'll bet Florida will remain a great place to die for a while still.
      - ethbr0 5y ago
        It's hard to beat 70/50°F in the middle of winter. And no wildfires! (Disclaimer: occasionally too much water and wind)
        seanmcdirmid 5y ago
        Florida definitely has wildfires. I’ve driven through a few going through the middle of Florida.
- Kye 5y ago
  Upper Florida has to contend with Georgia's farms as they try to accommodate an ever-densifying northeast metro Atlanta. This happened during the last big drought: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tri-state_water_dispute https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tri-state_water_dispute We might catch a break from climate change as the amount of water coming from the Gulf increases, but that comes with its own problems. Especially with the polar vortex creeping further south in the cold months.
  - ethbr0 5y ago
    It's funny when local jurisdictions and/or states tangle with Army Corp of Engineers and/or railroads, and find out just how much authority Congress granted them. Precisely because their job function requires them to work across states.
- bearbearbear 5y ago
rsj_hn 5y ago
I wouldn't say that either is overpopulated. Arizona, in particular, has plenty of water and is sparsely populated. It has more square miles of mountains than Switzerland. However, it may not have enough water to keep the huge cotton, alfalfa, and other water intensive crops growing. Agriculture is a huge industry in Arizona and it takes a lot of water to grow water intensive crops in the desert. This is done because water is extremely cheap and the sunshine gives you more harvests per year, and the lack of rain doesn't damage cotton. That's an issue of depleting aquifers via over-farming rather than too many people moving into the state and wasting too much water on showering and cooking. Another issue for the Phoenix metro is sprawl. But again, that's not a question of too many people so much as too many wanting to live on large per-person plots of land all connected to the Phoenix metro. You can be rural and have large individual plots in the Verde Valley or other more rural areas and you can have urban areas with higher density, but trying to make low density urban areas doesn't scale very well.
sjg007 5y ago
Plenty of water just need to stop all the agriculture...

ethbr0 5y ago

South Florida is questionable from a water perspective. Northwest & northeast FL have a bit more flexibility, as they're at the end of river systems. Per local radio news interviewing a university professor of real estate economics this morning, current prices are retirement surge from other states (due to market run) + supply / demand imbalance (due to firms going bust post-2008 and consequently new starts lagging population growth for years). Fundamentally, Florida has always been linked to CA & NY via retirement, as FL prices are defined by what you could sell real estate out of state for (e.g. after kids move out).

WaitWaitWha 5y ago
> South Florida is questionable from a water perspective Are you referring to fresh water? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floridan_aquifer https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floridan_aquifer
- ethbr0 5y ago
  The problem for Miami, as I understand it, is that the permeability and depth of the upper aquifer is pretty delicately balanced with sea level. Higher sea level (even a smidge) results in increased saltwater infiltration into the freshwater aquifers they're drawing from. Which is a problem when you're Miami-sized and growing population. I think Tampa / Orlando, and certainly Jacksonville and Pensacola, have more favorable geology and surface water.
  - autoexec 5y ago
    Between sea level rise and worsening storms I think I'd put off making long term investments in a most coastal areas, but presumably folks retiring won't live long enough to see the worst of what's coming. I'll bet Florida will remain a great place to die for a while still.
    - ethbr0 5y ago
      It's hard to beat 70/50°F in the middle of winter. And no wildfires! (Disclaimer: occasionally too much water and wind)
      - seanmcdirmid 5y ago
        Florida definitely has wildfires. I’ve driven through a few going through the middle of Florida.
Kye 5y ago
Upper Florida has to contend with Georgia's farms as they try to accommodate an ever-densifying northeast metro Atlanta. This happened during the last big drought: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tri-state_water_dispute https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tri-state_water_dispute We might catch a break from climate change as the amount of water coming from the Gulf increases, but that comes with its own problems. Especially with the polar vortex creeping further south in the cold months.
- ethbr0 5y ago
  It's funny when local jurisdictions and/or states tangle with Army Corp of Engineers and/or railroads, and find out just how much authority Congress granted them. Precisely because their job function requires them to work across states.
bearbearbear 5y ago

rsj_hn 5y ago

I wouldn't say that either is overpopulated. Arizona, in particular, has plenty of water and is sparsely populated. It has more square miles of mountains than Switzerland. However, it may not have enough water to keep the huge cotton, alfalfa, and other water intensive crops growing. Agriculture is a huge industry in Arizona and it takes a lot of water to grow water intensive crops in the desert. This is done because water is extremely cheap and the sunshine gives you more harvests per year, and the lack of rain doesn't damage cotton. That's an issue of depleting aquifers via over-farming rather than too many people moving into the state and wasting too much water on showering and cooking. Another issue for the Phoenix metro is sprawl. But again, that's not a question of too many people so much as too many wanting to live on large per-person plots of land all connected to the Phoenix metro. You can be rural and have large individual plots in the Verde Valley or other more rural areas and you can have urban areas with higher density, but trying to make low density urban areas doesn't scale very well.

sjg007 5y ago

Plenty of water just need to stop all the agriculture...