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There was an unexpected 40% increase in ‘all cause deaths’ in 2021
- drewcon 5y agoI can’t believe there is going to be a serious conversation that this is vaccine caused vs. virus caused when we know the virus attacks many of these systems and were getting data back now that 12 month post infection has caused massive cardiac problems for unvaccinated. By all means, prove it out…but it’s a complete delusion to start with the shot vs. the virus.
- roenxi 5y agoIt is unlikely to be the vaccine. This is probably some combination of hospital overload with a small dose of the lock-downs, business closures and mass firing of workers.
- torstenvl 5y agoWhen you say "unlikely," do you mean according to your Bayesian priors or according to an analysis you'd like to share with us?
- shlant 5y ago(not original commenter) according to all the best data we have on the safety profiles of the vaccines, and the data we have on covid, it would make much more sense for it to be covid. This is on the front page right now: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00403-0 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00403-0
- torstenvl 5y agoI'm skeptical that there's such a thing as "best data" when clinical trials were intentionally rushed. Don't misunderstand me, I supported and continue to support Operation Warp Speed and I'm glad we got a vaccine quickly. But let's not now pretend that we have the same kind of data fidelity we normally get with more carefully vetted vaccines.
- shlant 5y agonothing about the trials were "rushed" in a way that compromised quality. Please stop parroting that talking point. https://www.nebraskamed.com/COVID/were-the-covid-19-vaccines-rushed https://www.nebraskamed.com/COVID/were-the-covid-19-vaccines...
- torstenvl 5y agoI'm not parroting a talking point, and personal attacks are inappropriate. None of the assertions on the propaganda page you linked changes the simple and indisputable fact that it's impossible to know what effects something will have in a longer timeline unless your study covers a longer timeline. Science has no room for claims of being psychic. EDIT: To be clear, the page is propaganda because it (a) is intended to influence public opinion and (b) is clearly dishonest, in that the concern is about the abbreviated clinical trials, but none of the explanations address the length of clinical trials.
- shlant 5y agofrom one parroted talking point to another... not surprising considering your use of the word "propaganda". No vaccine has ever had adverse reactions that don't show up for over a year. There isn't even a mechanism through which that is possible as the components of the vaccines are all broken down and eliminated by the body in weeks. At what timeline would be be satisfied that there are no long term effects and what would that be based on?
- torstenvl 5y agoLet me know when you can engage without making personal attacks. I'm interested in discussing the science and policy, not having a flamewar. > No vaccine has ever had adverse reactions that don't show up for over a year. The OP is about adverse events in a timeline less than a year from the availability of the vaccines. Whether there's any link is an open question. > There isn't even a mechanism through which that is possible That is patently false. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1116914/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1116914/
- stjohnswarts 5y agoYou will never convince the people that want it to be the vaccine. Do I know that the vaccine could possibly have side effects? sure, maybe, highly unlikely though. These articles on questionable sites like most of the right wing pundit machine, I just have lots of experience with, and they are quick to insight fear and slow to correct their information as new information comes out.
- codechad 5y ago
- agentgumshoe 5y agoCan you share a study showing where Covid is responsible for such rises in this particular age bracket? As far as I understand, 18-49 yr olds are not a high risk group for covid, so is it not worth properly investigating the vaccines and other stress factors (lockdowns etc)? It is only delusional to start with something outside Covid if the data on Covid reflects the 40% clearly already.
- morelisp 5y ago> As far as I understand, 18-49 yr olds are not a high risk group for covid When people say things like "not a high risk group for covid" it's shorthand for "not at immediate risk of serious respiratory covid symptoms should they contract the virus." It doesn't say anything about longer-term impacts (nor, confusingly for some people I guess, transmission); for that you need, well, studies like this. (But without the antivax scam noise around it.)
- agentgumshoe 5y agoIt's an interesting thing though that I often see these two views provided simultaneously: > Long Covid symptoms are most likely caused by Covid (even if barely symptomatic from the initial infection! - example: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/08/health/long-covid-asymptomatic.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/08/health/long-covid-asympto...). > Vaccine side effects are most likely not the vaccine, but stress, hospital restrictions, lockdowns, prior infections, less exercise, bad diet, etc. Not really a consistent baseline or set of controls there.
- TrispusAttucks 5y agoThe control part is an interesting problem. If everyone gets vaccinated we have no control group. Which would be helpful for long term comparisons on outcomes.
- morelisp 5y ago> "Vaccine side effects are most likely not the vaccine" Nobody says this. Vaccine side effects are of course the vaccine, by definition. Stop obfuscating what you really mean, which is "an enormously broad range of symptoms present in people who took the vaccine, and also many who did not, which no serious medical professional will attribute completely to a vaccination." But even if I give you the benefit of the doubt and assume you mean that: It's perfectly consistent if you believe that COVID is poorly-understood and mutating, and the vaccines are well-understood and consistent over time. Which are both true.
- kwertyoowiyop 5y agoWelcome to the 21st century. It’s a lot like the 19th.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- dham 5y agoCould this just be that people didn't generally go to doctors in 2020 so this is really 2020 and 2021?
- creshal 5y agoThat was predicted to happen back in 2020, when hospitals had to postpone cancer surgeries and the likes. Unfortunately, the "whistleblowers" make no attempts at understanding statistics, much less explaining them, and just want to blame it all on vaccines. Please donate to their cause, because their livelihoods depend on finding a secret hidden scoop in publicly available data, and to everyone's surprise they did! What a coincidence.
- treeman79 5y agoI was in the process of recovering from some serious medical issues when I lost access to my doctors from covid. It was a scary set of months. Thankfully the last attempt at medication, after 3 years of failures, actually helped with out extreme side effects. If covid had been a month earlier I would have died. As it is I had to start replacing prescription blood thinners medications with OTC meds. Since appointments were so hard to get. Actual covid was scary and upped my clotting and stroke problems for a good six months.
- loudtieblahblah 5y agoFunny how everything but the obvious big change is a conspiracy theory.
- camillomiller 5y agoIt is all but obvious. This data doesn’t prove anything, so why should it be accepted that it’s the vaccines?
- camillomiller 5y agoThis report raises so many red flags it looks like a Chinese Communist Party congress. To begin with, they conflate two different reports. The interviewed doctor is using words as "bombshell report" to describe statistical uncorrelated analysis. They claim the report comes from unspecified military doctors. Then I stopped watching. I'm all for researching anomalies like these, but boy, there's also no way to understand how many of the people in these stats were vaccinated or not! I call BS, because if it wasn't there would be no reason to dress this up this way.
- dathinab 5y agoWe know that: 1. A SARSCov2 infection can have all kinds of side effects affecting you even if you have a seemingly asymptotic infection, or post infection. Many of which have the chance to increase the chance of death through other causes. 2. An infection has the chance to weaken your immune system increasing your risk of death due to other reasons 3. People didn't took care (or couldn't) of other health issues as a side effect of the pandemic, fare and the pandemic measurements, increasing risk of death again by a small bit. This is also not limited to medical death, for example non COVID specific: Sickness can cause you to have reduced reaction time or concentration which slightly increases you risk of dying by e.g. an car accident (if you drive). ... So what I'm trying to say is, I would say a non-small "all cause deaths" increase is expected, even if we would have had side effect free vaccines. I.e. it's not a factual good basis for creating a conspiracy theory on. Which doesn't mean that some increase might not be from vaccines, noting is perfect. But most of it should be due to implicit side effects from covid, the pandemic, fare, delayed operations/healthcare etc.
- dham 5y agoMost of these can be from Covid / any other virus. For instance Bell's Palsy. I know 2 people who I went to school with who got it after having Covid (they were vaccinated too). Doctors didn't seem surprised at all. The interesting one is Miscarriages, Female infertility. That might/probably related to stress from pandemic in general / lockdowns / previous kids being at home trying to teach them and do your job too. Also some viral infections are associated with miscarriages Neurologic abnormalities - I still have smell distortion(not loss but certain distorted smells). I went to ENT and he's seen so much of it just in my town, so probably related to Covid for most people. Congenital malformations - This is a thing with the Flu so probably coronaviruses too.
- TrispusAttucks 5y agoHow can you be sure it was from COVID and not the vaccine?
- dham 5y ago
- shlant 5y agowhy is this low quality article with no sources from a news station with a VERY clear slant being considered? At least post the actual report they are referring to.
- TrispusAttucks 5y agoThe 2021 data was taken offline.
- shlant 5y agoso they are making very strong statements that they can't even back up? Seems like something that should be avoided by news outlets.
- TrispusAttucks 5y agoThe whistleblowers reported on data that was real. After they blew the whistle the data was taken offline. Seems like worthy reporting to me.
- golergka 5y agoHow much of these deaths are caused by COVID and how much are caused by anti-COVID measures (economical and emotional stress, isolation, depression)?
- Day1 5y agoThe reality is both. We have largely focused on mitigating COVID deaths but we need to address the devastation caused from anti-COVID measures because despite it being largely underreported and understated, the impact is there and we all feel and see it.
- shalmanese 5y agoWe can look at the effect of anti-COVID measures by examining regions with small amounts of COVID but large amounts of anti-COVID measures like Australia and New Zealand. You can even compare between Australian states like Victoria that had 6 lockdowns and WA that had virtually none. The result is that all cause mortality went down, largely due to elimination of respiratory viruses but also due to a slight decrease in car accidents. Suicide rates actually went down, not up and there was a uptick in self-reported mental illness and distress but that uptick was far smaller than the later uptick when COVID became widespread. The economy took a hit but a far smaller hit than countries that that let COVID rip. The effects of lockdowns are real and measurable and they are bad but far, far less bad than COVID itself.
- camillomiller 5y agoI don’t think that can be generalized and taken as a sample. Australia, in terms of density of population and culture, might as well be another planet in comparison with say, Italy, or Spain. The truth is, all this conclusions can only be assumptions, because the amount of variables polluting any stat we’re trying to use are too large to properly control and account for.
- jtorsella 5y ago[dead]
- mymllnthaccount 5y agoHere is an alternative perspective: https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/antivaxxers-misuse-the-defense-epidemiology-medical-database-to-demonize-covid-19-vaccines/ https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/antivaxxers-misuse-the-defe... One good tidbit from that site is that cancers take years to develop so it is hard to believe that there was a multi 100% uptick in cancer diagnoses last year.
- TrispusAttucks 5y agoSome addition sources: [0] https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2022/jan/31/instagram-posts/numbers-were-based-faulty-data-military-spokespers/ https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2022/jan/31/instagram-... [1] https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/covid-panel-military-service-members-see-spikes-miscarriages-cancer https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/covid-pa... [2] https://rumble.com/vt62y6-covid-19-a-second-opinion.html https://rumble.com/vt62y6-covid-19-a-second-opinion.html [3] https://www.theblaze.com/op-ed/horowitz-whistleblowers-share-dod-medical-data-that-blows-vaccine-safety-debate-wide-open https://www.theblaze.com/op-ed/horowitz-whistleblowers-share... [4] https://www.theblaze.com/op-ed/horowitz-the-pentagons-response-to-the-explosive-dod-medical-data-is-an-even-bigger-story-than-the-data https://www.theblaze.com/op-ed/horowitz-the-pentagons-respon... [5] https://www.independent.org/news/article.asp?id=13987 https://www.independent.org/news/article.asp?id=13987 Either there was an unusual underreporting error for 5 years that went unnoticed and is yet to be explained or the spike is legitimate and is being covered up because it's inconvenient. Either way, very suspect. The database has been taken down to adjust the data.
- shlant 5y agowow some really low quality and biased sources to back up a low quality and biased source... This is literally just a rehashing of VAERS fear-mongering https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/antivaxxers-misuse-the-defense-epidemiology-medical-database-to-demonize-covid-19-vaccines/ https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/antivaxxers-misuse-the-defe...
- TrispusAttucks 5y agoI agree but I am not finding any coverage on mainstream corporate media. 15 years ago I would use that as evidence against the story. In today's media climate not so much.
- shlant 5y agocould it be because drawing conclusions from low quality, raw data like VAERS and the DoD database is not good journalism? Assuming correlations is not something quality news outlets should be doing
- bennovw 5y agoIn the United States, excess deaths increased 22.9% between March 1, 2020, and Jan. 2, 2021, an increase that “far exceeds annual increases observed in recent years” of 2.5% or less, data in JAMA show. In other words, this trend pre-dates mass vaccination campaigns that barely got started mid December 2020. https://www.healio.com/news/primary-care/20210402/allcause-mortality-in-us-soars-23-in-9month-period-largely-due-to-covid19 https://www.healio.com/news/primary-care/20210402/allcause-m...